Add measurement contracts to Marketing OS

ARCHITECTURE.md

@@ -306,6 +306,7 @@ gets fixed.
       - launches/new-product-launch/references/launch-narrative.md (for net-new products)
       - strategy/messaging-architecture
       - marketing-science/research
+      - marketing-science/measurement
       - marketing-science/brand-equity
       - positioning/{relevant product}
       - brand-voice/{relevant product}
@@ -336,6 +337,11 @@ gets fixed.
     marketing-science/research
       - foundation/marketing-os
 
+    marketing-science/measurement
+      - foundation/marketing-os
+      - marketing-science/research
+      (measurement contract, metric hierarchy, instrumentation, and decision rules)
+
     marketing-science/archetyping
       - foundation/marketing-os
 

README.md

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ The repository is organized into seven top-level folders:
 4. **strategy/** — Higher-order strategy skills, including the gated Compound Brand workflow, messaging architecture, and one-pagers
 5. **craft/** — Identity and execution skills, including verbal identity, art direction, copywriting, editing, naming, and channel-specific output
 6. **launches/** — Orchestration skills for three launch tiers plus the flagship GTM, calendar, brief, claims, wireframe, and email systems
-7. **marketing-science/** — Research, archetyping, and brand-equity theory that inform strategy and identity
+7. **marketing-science/** — Research, measurement, archetyping, and brand-equity theory that inform strategy and identity
 
 ## Dependency model
 
@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ Ready for structured use:
 
 - Every master positioning and brand voice
 - Evidence-led research, competitive auditing, and positioning matrices
+- Decision-led measurement contracts for campaigns, launches, and experiments
 - Compound Brand strategy through art direction
 - Aaker-led brand-equity modeling
 - Messaging architecture and flagship launch systems

foundation/marketing-os/references/method.md

@@ -112,6 +112,36 @@ CAC, MQLs, click-through — those are Austin's territory, the growth team's. Th
 
 ---
 
+## Measurement doctrine
+
+Measurement exists to drive decisions. Dashboards are a reporting surface. Every
+strategy, campaign, launch, and experiment names the objective, causal hypothesis,
+baseline, primary decision metric, target or threshold, diagnostics, guardrails, data
+source, owner, window, attribution limits, and decision rule before results arrive. Load
+`marketing-science/measurement` to build the contract.
+
+**One objective, one primary decision metric.** Supporting numbers can explain the
+result or protect against unintended damage. They cannot all be north stars. Volume is
+paired with quality or audience composition, and percentages show their denominators.
+
+**Marketing and Growth share evidence without collapsing mandates.** Marketing measures
+demand, memory, associations, cultural position, earned attention, and audience quality.
+Growth measures conversion, activation, revenue, retention, and funnel efficiency. A
+shared launch needs both views and named owners. Last-click attribution does not become
+the final account merely because it is available.
+
+**What is measurable is not identical to what matters.** Hard-to-attribute effects still
+require observable signals, appropriate time horizons, and honest confidence labels.
+Quantitative evidence is paired with customer behavior, qualitative evidence, and
+cultural context. Judgment stays in the system; unsupported intuition does not get a
+free pass.
+
+**No baseline means no improvement claim.** When the baseline is missing, say so,
+establish one, and name which conclusions remain unavailable. Results end in a decision:
+continue, change, stop, invest, or collect better evidence.
+
+---
+
 ## Taste as strategic asset
 
 **Taste defined.** Taste is point of view — the judgment that something belongs. Which idea is worth writing about, which AI tool is worth covering, which guest is worth interviewing, which sentence earns its place, which campaign is worth shipping. Taste is the quality of attention paid to a decision most companies make on autopilot. A high taste level means, by definition, that some people won't "get it." Good.

launches/canonical-process.md

@@ -96,6 +96,8 @@ note in the standard format (below).
 - Dream tweet and dream headline — verbatim and specific enough to score at the retro;
   the headline should validate the intended category belief or customer outcome
 - Positioning and story: what we made, why we made it, who it's for
+- Name the measurement owner, inventory available data and instrumentation, and capture
+  the pre-launch baseline or mark it `NO BASELINE`
 - Deep competitive audit — messaging, positioning, colors, pricing (`competitive-audit` skill)
 - Name the pricing/offer owner — Brandon and the GM lock pricing, targeted for wireframe approval
 - Naming phase if needed, per Rule 5
@@ -135,7 +137,9 @@ note in the standard format (below).
 - Design the full website; ship to the builder within two weeks of green light
 - Builder builds, one–two weeks; QA owner named, definition of done agreed at handoff
 - Product designer and GM apply the brand in the app, from the locked brand book
-- Measurement and KPIs locked in Growth's GTM plan, metrics included — Growth owns measurement
+- Growth completes the measurement contract with `marketing-science/measurement` inside
+  the GTM plan: objective, hypothesis, baseline, primary metric, formulas, targets,
+  diagnostics, guardrails, sources, owner, window, attribution limits, and decision rules
 - Austin locks the GTM plan one week before launch: customer, campaign hierarchy,
   proof/seeding system, starter behavior, editorial role, video suite, measures, and owners
 - Douglas builds the Marketing Launch Calendar — including retro and sustain — into the Notion Calendar
@@ -159,7 +163,9 @@ note in the standard format (below).
 
 ### Post-launch
 
-- Retro — always. Scored against the Week 1 success definition: dream tweet, dream headline, metrics
+- Retro — always. Scored against the Week 1 success definition and pre-committed
+  measurement rules: dream tweet, dream headline, primary outcomes, diagnostics, and
+  guardrails. End with a decision, not a metric recap.
 - Sustain per the GTM plan and Marketing Launch Calendar — flexes by launch
 - Customer receipts, seeded-user evidence, and case studies feed the next acquisition
   cycle; proof targets are scored at the retro alongside business and brand outcomes
@@ -205,8 +211,11 @@ Established July 2026 on the All Access, Every Agent, and Cora 2.0 launches. The
 3. **Naming.** Per Rule 5.
 4. **Red light.** One more round; solve the reasons within a week if possible; budget
    one–two weeks before re-presenting. Show the slack on the calendar.
-5. **Measurement.** Growth owns measurement and KPIs, locked inside the GTM plan.
-   Marketing's retro scores against the Week 1 success definition.
+5. **Measurement.** Growth owns measurement and KPIs, locked as a measurement contract
+   inside the GTM plan with `marketing-science/measurement`. Marketing owns the brand,
+   demand, cultural, and qualitative outcomes it expects the contract to include.
+   Marketing's retro scores against the Week 1 success definition and the contract's
+   decision rules. No baseline means no improvement claim.
 6. **In-product brand.** The GM builds the app. Marketing connects with the GM and
    engineering twice during the brand build and once at brand lock; the product designer
    and GM incorporate the identity. Not marketing's workstream.
@@ -255,7 +264,7 @@ A new launch's roster is collected, never inherited. These are examples to offer
   beats a complete-looking false one.
 - Check every item the same way; name what wasn't covered instead of implying it passed.
 
-## Skill registry (status as of July 18, 2026)
+## Skill registry (status as of July 23, 2026)
 
 | Skill | Status | Role |
 |---|---|---|
@@ -265,6 +274,7 @@ A new launch's roster is collected, never inherited. These are examples to offer
 | codex-gut-check | **New in this bundle** | The Week 5 bridge |
 | launch-brief | **New in this bundle** | Week 1 foundation generator |
 | gtm-plan | **New in v1.4** | Market belief, campaign, proof, activation, and measurement strategy |
+| marketing-science/measurement | **New in v1.5** | Measurement contract, metric hierarchy, instrumentation, and decision rules |
 | claims-clearance | **New in this bundle** | Pre-ship verification gate |
 | wireframe-from-copy | **New in this bundle** | Copy doc → annotated lo-fi wireframe |
 | launch-email-flows | **New in this bundle** | Four-flow launch email pattern |
@@ -273,6 +283,14 @@ A new launch's roster is collected, never inherited. These are examples to offer
 
 ## Changelog
 
+**v1.5 — July 23, 2026 (Douglas × Codex)**
+- Added `marketing-science/measurement`, a reusable measurement contract for strategies,
+  campaigns, launches, experiments, and ongoing programs.
+- Required a baseline, primary decision metric, formula, target, diagnostics, guardrails,
+  instrumentation, owner, window, attribution limits, and pre-committed decision rules.
+- Kept Marketing and Growth measures connected but distinct, and required launch retros
+  to end in a decision rather than a dashboard recap.
+
 **v1.4 — July 18, 2026 (Douglas × Codex)**
 - Added `launches/gtm-plan`, the missing strategy layer between the approved launch brief
   and channel execution.

launches/gtm-plan/SKILL.md

@@ -150,6 +150,12 @@ Every clip should prove one claim. Do not turn the campaign into a feature tour.
 
 ## Measurement
 
+Load `marketing-science/measurement` and complete its measurement contract before launch.
+The contract must define the objective, hypothesis, baseline, primary decision metric,
+formula, target or threshold, diagnostics, guardrails, data source, owner, window,
+attribution limits, and pre-committed decision rule. A list of plausible metrics is not
+a measurement plan.
+
 Lock four classes of measures with dates and owners:
 
 - **Business:** qualified demand, paid conversion, revenue, capacity, retention, and referrals
@@ -161,6 +167,10 @@ Label each measure as offer, campaign, activation, or operations. Activation com
 
 Use a funnel model before launch when capacity, revenue, or sales targets matter. Show the assumptions and track quality or composition beside volume. A full event with the wrong room or a large waitlist of poor-fit applicants is not success.
 
+If no baseline exists, write `NO BASELINE`, establish the earliest defensible observation
+window, and do not claim improvement. Name the action the team will take for success,
+mixed evidence, failure, and an inconclusive result.
+
 ## Required output
 
 Produce two layers.
@@ -175,7 +185,8 @@ Use seven sections and keep them brief:
 4. **The campaign** — platform, enemy, proposition, optional campaign demand, conversion action, payoff, articulation, and proof system
 5. **The journey** — conversion and lifecycle path, including decision points and recovery
 6. **The route to market** — three to six phases, each with one job and only its required proof or action
-7. **The scorecard and gates** — funnel assumptions, a small set of outcomes, launch gates, and owners for open decisions
+7. **The scorecard and gates** — the completed measurement contract, funnel assumptions,
+   a small set of outcomes, launch gates, and owners for open decisions
 
 ### Chosen appendices
 
@@ -200,6 +211,7 @@ Dream tweets and headlines are optional stress tests for positioning. Use them o
 | Planning a curated or application-based event | `references/curated-event-gtm.md` |
 | Auditing whether an activation has replaced the offer | `references/concept-inflation-case.md` |
 | Verifying Every Agent market claims | `marketing-science/messaging/references/evidence-bank-every-agent.md` |
+| Building the scorecard, targets, instrumentation, and decision rules | `marketing-science/measurement` |
 | Building the upstream message hierarchy | `strategy/messaging-architecture` |
 | Producing the launch narrative | `launches/new-product-launch/references/launch-narrative.md` |
 
@@ -210,7 +222,7 @@ Dream tweets and headlines are optional stress tests for positioning. Use them o
 - `launches/launch-brief` (approved input)
 - `launches/new-product-launch/references/launch-narrative.md` (for net-new products)
 - `strategy/messaging-architecture`
-- `marketing-science/research` · `marketing-science/brand-equity`
+- `marketing-science/research` · `marketing-science/measurement` · `marketing-science/brand-equity`
 - `positioning/{relevant product}` · `brand-voice/{relevant product}`
 - `launches/claims-clearance`
 
@@ -224,6 +236,9 @@ Dream tweets and headlines are optional stress tests for positioning. Use them o
 - [ ] Campaign platform, enemy, proposition, optional demand, conversion action, and payoff each have a clear job
 - [ ] No optional activation has silently become an admissions rule, onboarding task, PR premise, or success metric
 - [ ] Offer, campaign, activation, and operations measures remain separate
+- [ ] The measurement contract has a baseline, one primary metric per objective, formulas,
+      targets, diagnostics, guardrails, sources, owners, windows, attribution limits, and
+      decision rules
 - [ ] Proof exists before channel volume begins
 - [ ] The journey names decisions, handoffs, service levels, failure states, and follow-up
 - [ ] Application data and private logistics are separated for gated experiences