Source code for website: https://yetanotherseirmodel.com
Author: Steven Michael ([email protected])
This web site represents a standard SEIR -- Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed -- model for the spread of coummnicable disesase. The model has some small additions to the basic SEIR model:
- Infectious state transitions to a mildly symptomatic state and a hospital state. Hospital state can transition to fatal (death) state or a recovery state
- Model allows for an intervention period during which the pandemic is recognized and aggregate behaviour changes to reduce the reproduction number, R0.
- Model allows for finite hospital capacity, with probability of death increasing when capacity is exceeded
The website provides complete model details. The model is implemented in C++, and is compiled with emscripten to run natively in the web browser.
The website also plots data from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 database - https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 - showing both deaths and confirmed cases as a function of country and US state. The model parameters can then be tuned to match the statistics of the selected region.