This is our final report for EN.553.432 Bayesian Statistics.
A statistical algorithm for predicting the gain in life expectancy within a country is created using a double logistic random walk model with variable drift. This model builds off of deterministic methods used in practice often, with the incorporation of a hierarchical Bayesian framework for allowing greater flexibility in choice of model parameters and estimation.
This project was strongly informed by the work done by Raftery, et al. A full list of citations can be found at the end of the report within this repository.
Adrian E. Raftery, Jennifer L. Chunn, Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková (2013). Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography. 50:3, 777-801. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.