update: chromatic noise models & feat: hypermodel empirical distributions

[jeremy-baier]

This PR contains many various updates associated with chromatic noise modeling efforts over the past several years.
Notable changes include:

• functionality for “fixed-point” analysis where one can set a chromatic signal to a max likelihood value rather than sampling in that GPs hyperparameters.
• the ability to sample in the chromatic index of a chromatic model.
• it also expands functionality for empirical distributions to include a hypermodel empirical distribution.
• cleans up the hypermodel code caching stuff which is called in each iteration unnecessarily
• move the hypermodel weights to the lnPRIOR rather than the lnLIKELIHOOD (fixes issues with PTMCMC and hm weights)
• prints hypermodel weights to a file in out directory (model_log_weights.json)
• adds support for the SW GP basis & kernel from Nitu et al 2024

[paulthebaker]

Consider making the minor changes suggested

[paulthebaker]

same as above: elif sign == "negative", and optionally raise a ValueError in a final else

[jeremy-baier]

done

[paulthebaker]

If you have to make any changes, it should be trivial to fix issue #260 while you are at it.

[jeremy-baier]

@blarsen10 is going to add one more thing. and we are finalizing compatibility tests. so please don’t merge quite yet, @paulthebaker . but otherwise, I think that things are in order.

[jeremy-baier]

@paulthebaker i think all of the code for this PR is now finalized actually. i want to spend a few hours this afternoon doing some last minute checks, but then it should be ready for merge.

[codecov-commenter]

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 19.84733% with 315 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
✅ Project coverage is 34.48%. Comparing base (a52eed4) to head (9802911).
⚠️ Report is 100 commits behind head on master.

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
enterprise_extensions/blocks.py	21.01%	109 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/chromatic/solar_wind.py	0.00%	64 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/chromatic/chromatic.py	18.30%	58 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/sampler.py	15.15%	56 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/gp_kernels.py	39.28%	17 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/hypermodel.py	61.90%	8 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/models.py	50.00%	2 Missing ⚠️
enterprise_extensions/model_utils.py	0.00%	1 Missing ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##           master     #242      +/-   ##
==========================================
- Coverage   37.29%   34.48%   -2.82%     
==========================================
  Files          20       23       +3     
  Lines        3974     4759     +785     
==========================================
+ Hits         1482     1641     +159     
- Misses       2492     3118     +626     

Files with missing lines	Coverage Δ
enterprise_extensions/model_utils.py	14.46% <0.00%> (+1.07%)	⬆️
enterprise_extensions/models.py	42.16% <50.00%> (+0.24%)	⬆️
enterprise_extensions/hypermodel.py	50.42% <61.90%> (+2.12%)	⬆️
enterprise_extensions/gp_kernels.py	35.93% <39.28%> (-52.14%)	⬇️
enterprise_extensions/sampler.py	35.05% <15.15%> (-3.24%)	⬇️
enterprise_extensions/chromatic/chromatic.py	15.92% <18.30%> (+0.58%)	⬆️
enterprise_extensions/chromatic/solar_wind.py	34.26% <0.00%> (-9.00%)	⬇️
enterprise_extensions/blocks.py	39.18% <21.01%> (-5.23%)	⬇️

---

Continue to review full report in Codecov by Sentry.

Legend - Click here to learn more
Δ = absolute <relative> (impact), ø = not affected, ? = missing data
Powered by Codecov. Last update 4e1ce07...9802911. Read the comment docs.

🚀 New features to boost your workflow:

• ❄️ Test Analytics: Detect flaky tests, report on failures, and find test suite problems.

[paulthebaker]

Please use enterprise.constants module when applicable for easier human readability