Prediction Market Trader Agent

A library for exploring the landscape of AI Agent frameworks, using the example application of a prediction market betting agent. The various agents interact with markets from Manifold, Presagio and Polymarket.

These agents build on top of the prediction market APIs from https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling.

Setup

Install the project dependencies with poetry, using Python >=3.10:

python3.10 -m pip install poetry
python3.10 -m poetry install
python3.10 -m poetry shell

Create a .env file in the root of the repo with the following variables:

MANIFOLD_API_KEY=...
BET_FROM_PRIVATE_KEY=...
OPENAI_API_KEY=...

Depending on the agent you want to run, you may require additional variables. See an exhaustive list in .env.example.

Interactive Streamlit Apps

• An autonomous agent with function calling. Can be 'prodded' by the user to guide its strategy: streamlit run prediction_market_agent/agents/microchain_agent/app.py (Deployed here)
• Pick a prediction market question, or create your own, and pick one or more agents to perform research and make a prediction: streamlit run scripts/agent_app.py (Deployed here)

Dune Dashboard

The on-chain activity of the deployed agents from this repo can be tracked on a Dune dashboard here.

Running

Execute prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py, specifying the ID of the 'runnable agent', and the market type as arguments:

% python prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py --help

 Usage: run_agent.py [OPTIONS] AGENT:{coinflip|replicate_to_omen|think_thorough                                         
                     ly|think_thoroughly_prophet|think_thoroughly_prophet_kelly                                         
                     |knownoutcome|microchain|microchain_modifiable_system_prom                                         
                     pt_0|microchain_modifiable_system_prompt_1|microchain_modi                                         
                     fiable_system_prompt_2|microchain_modifiable_system_prompt                                         
                     _3|microchain_with_goal_manager_agent_0|metaculus_bot_tour                                         
                     nament_agent|prophet_gpt4o|prophet_gpt4|prophet_gpt4_final                                         
                     |prophet_gpt4_kelly|olas_embedding_oa|social_media|omen_cl                                         
                     eaner|ofv_challenger}                                                                              
                     MARKET_TYPE:{omen|manifold|polymarket|metaculus}                                                   
                                                                                                                        
╭─ Arguments ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮
│ *    agent            AGENT:{coinflip|replicate_to_omen|think_thorou  [default: None] [required]                     │
│                       ghly|think_thoroughly_prophet|think_thoroughly                                                 │
│                       _prophet_kelly|knownoutcome|microchain|microch                                                 │
│                       ain_modifiable_system_prompt_0|microchain_modi                                                 │
│                       fiable_system_prompt_1|microchain_modifiable_s                                                 │
│                       ystem_prompt_2|microchain_modifiable_system_pr                                                 │
│                       ompt_3|microchain_with_goal_manager_agent_0|me                                                 │
│                       taculus_bot_tournament_agent|prophet_gpt4o|pro                                                 │
│                       phet_gpt4|prophet_gpt4_final|prophet_gpt4_kell                                                 │
│                       y|olas_embedding_oa|social_media|omen_cleaner|                                                 │
│                       ofv_challenger}                                                                                │
│ *    market_type      MARKET_TYPE:{omen|manifold|polymarket|metaculu  [default: None] [required]                     │
│                       s}                                                                                             │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
╭─ Options ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮
│ --install-completion          Install completion for the current shell.                                              │
│ --show-completion             Show completion for the current shell, to copy it or customize the installation.       │
│ --help                        Show this message and exit.                                                            │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯

Deploying

The easiest way to make your own agent that places a bet on a prediction market is to subclass the DeployableTraderAgent. See DeployableCoinFlipAgent for a minimal example.

From there, you can add it to the RUNNABLE_AGENTS dict in prediction_market_agent/run_agent.py, and use that as the entrypoint for running the agent in your cloud deployment.

Contributing

See the Issues for ideas of things that need fixing or implementing. The team is also receptive to new issues and PRs.

A great self-contained first contribution would be to implement an agent using a framework in the 'Other frameworks to try' issue.