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Seasonal Shocks and Food Scarcity Dynamics in Tanzania

An empirical, longitudinal analysis of food scarcity, shock typologies, and household coping dynamics in Tanzania using four waves of the LSMS-ISA National Panel Survey (NPSY1–NPSY4).

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📌 Project Overview

This research examines the temporal, causal, and behavioral dimensions of household food insecurity across Tanzania. Moving beyond standard aggregate econometric models, the study establishes a reproducible three-stage descriptive framework:

1. Temporal Mapping: Tracing monthly reported food shortages across panel rounds (2009–2013) to isolate recurring pre-harvest lean seasons.
2. Pooled Modal Typology: Classifying macro-drivers (Agro-Climatic, Financial & Income Shocks, Market & Price Shocks) by calendar month to uncover compound bottlenecks such as the "June Liquidity Paradox."
3. Behavioral Adaptation: Tracking 7-day recall dietary adjustments and scoring household vulnerability using the Reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI).

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