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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Sep 22, 2025

Summary

  • Added analysis of Child Tax Credit reform that reduces phase-out thresholds starting in 2025
  • Calculates year-by-year impacts from 2026-2035 on household net income and income taxes
  • Results saved to CSV for further analysis

Reform Details

The analysis models reducing CTC phase-out thresholds to:

  • Joint filers: $150,000
  • Single/Head of Household/Separate filers: $75,000
  • Surviving spouse: $150,000

Key Findings

Over the 10-year period (2026-2035):

  • Total household net income reduction: $308.6 billion
  • Total income tax increase: $304.5 billion
  • Annual impact grows from $21.3B (2026) to $40.5B (2035)

Files Added

  • us/irs/ctc/phase_out_75k_150k/ctc_reform_2026_2035.py - Analysis script with garbage collection for memory efficiency
  • us/irs/ctc/phase_out_75k_150k/ctc_reform_2026_2035_results.csv - Year-by-year results with totals

Files are organized in the phase_out_75k_150k subfolder to clearly indicate the specific threshold levels being analyzed.

Technical Notes

  • Uses PolicyEngine-US v1.401.0 microsimulation with CPS data
  • Implements memory management to handle 10-year analysis
  • Saves incremental results to prevent data loss from timeouts

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

This analysis examines the impact of reducing CTC phase-out thresholds:
- Joint filers: $150,000 (from higher threshold)
- Single/Head of Household: $75,000 (from higher threshold)

Key findings over 10 years (2026-2035):
- Total net income reduction: $308.6 billion
- Total income tax increase: $304.5 billion
- Annual impact grows from $21.3B in 2026 to $40.5B in 2035

The reform affects higher-income families who would see their CTC benefits
phase out at lower income levels than under current law.

Files organized in us/irs/ctc/phase_out_75k_150k/ to clearly indicate
the specific threshold levels being analyzed.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <[email protected]>
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