JSONbored · rsnetworkinginc · Jul 24, 2026
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ export { isCalibrationReport, isCalibrationRow, isObservedOutcomeRecord, isPredi
  *  unrecognized. `value` is always the already-validated non-empty string field of a record (the type guards run
  *  first), so no non-string handling is needed here. Accepts both the predicted (`merge`/`close`/`hold`) and the
  *  realized (`merged`/`closed`) forms. */
-function normalizeDecision(value: string): "merge" | "close" | "hold" | "" {
+export function normalizeDecision(value: string): "merge" | "close" | "hold" | "" {
   const decision = value.trim().toLowerCase();
   if (decision === "merge" || decision === "merged") return "merge";
   if (decision === "close" || decision === "closed") return "close";

@@ -1,54 +1,125 @@
 import { renderMinerPredictionMetrics } from "@loopover/engine";
 import type { MinerPredictionMetricRow } from "@loopover/engine";
-import { initPredictionLedger } from "./prediction-ledger.js";
+import { toOutcomeRecords, toPredictionRecords } from "./calibration-cli.js";
+import { normalizeDecision } from "./calibration.js";
+import { initEventLedger, resolveEventLedgerDbPath } from "./event-ledger.js";
+import type { EventLedger, LedgerEntry } from "./event-ledger.js";
+import { initPredictionLedger, resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath } from "./prediction-ledger.js";
 import type { PredictionLedger } from "./prediction-ledger.js";
 import { argsWantJson, describeCliError, reportCliFailure } from "./cli-error.js";
 
 // `metrics` (#4838): render the miner's prediction-calibration counters as Prometheus text-exposition to stdout,
 // for a scrape wrapper or cron redirect. The counters are produced by the engine's already-built
 // renderMinerPredictionMetrics (packages/loopover-engine/src/miner-prediction-metrics.ts) -- this command only
-// reads the local prediction ledger and feeds it in, never touching the renderer itself. Strictly local + offline:
-// no network, no writes.
+// reads the local prediction ledger + realized `pr_outcome` event stream and feeds them in, never touching the
+// renderer itself. Strictly local + offline: no network, no writes.
 
 const METRICS_USAGE = "Usage: loopover-miner metrics";
 
+// Key an outcome/prediction by its (project, targetId) exactly as calibration.ts's own join does, so metrics
+// resolves each prediction against the identical (project, targetId) pairing buildCalibrationReport uses.
+function recordKey(project: string, targetId: string): string {
+  return `${project} ${targetId}`;
+}
+
+// Resolve one prediction's realized-outcome pairing against its observed decision (`undefined` when none was
+// observed for its (project, targetId)), mirroring buildCalibrationReport's own classification: a prediction is
+// scored only when it itself normalizes to `merge`/`close` AND its observed outcome also normalizes to
+// `merge`/`close` -- `true` when they match, `false` when they differ. A `hold`/unrecognized prediction, a
+// still-pending row (no outcome), or an unclassifiable outcome all stay unresolved (`correct` left unset); an
+// undecided row is never fabricated as `false`.
+function resolveCorrect(predictedDecision: string, observedDecision: string | undefined): boolean | undefined {
+  const predicted = normalizeDecision(predictedDecision);
+  if (predicted !== "merge" && predicted !== "close") return undefined;
+  if (observedDecision === undefined) return undefined;
+  const observed = normalizeDecision(observedDecision);
+  if (observed !== "merge" && observed !== "close") return undefined;
+  return predicted === observed;
+}
+
 /**
- * Project prediction-ledger rows onto the engine renderer's metric-row shape -- the predicted `conclusion` only.
- * The realized-outcome pairing (`correct`) is intentionally left unset: the miner has no outcome-join yet, so the
- * correct/incorrect counters stay zero and only `predictions_total{conclusion}` moves -- exactly how the renderer
- * is designed to degrade before outcome-pairing exists (see its header comment).
+ * Project prediction-ledger rows onto the engine renderer's metric-row shape: the predicted `conclusion`, plus the
+ * realized-outcome pairing (`correct`) resolved through the SAME join `calibration-cli.ts` already uses (#8315).
+ * Each prediction's outcome is looked up by its `(project, targetId)` among the latest `pr_outcome` events
+ * (`toOutcomeRecords`) and compared against the prediction (`toPredictionRecords`), both normalized through
+ * calibration.ts's `normalizeDecision` exactly as `buildCalibrationReport` does. A row is left unresolved
+ * (`correct` omitted) when it is still pending (no realized outcome), when its own conclusion is `hold` (which has
+ * no `merged`/`closed` counterpart), or when the realized outcome is unclassifiable -- never fabricating `false`
+ * for an undecided row. Resolved rows carry `correct: true` when the normalized prediction matches the realized
+ * decision, `false` when they differ.
  */
-export function collectPredictionMetricRows(ledger: PredictionLedger): MinerPredictionMetricRow[] {
-  return ledger.readPredictions().map((entry) => ({ conclusion: entry.conclusion }));
+export function collectPredictionMetricRows(
+  ledger: PredictionLedger,
+  events: LedgerEntry[] = [],
+): MinerPredictionMetricRow[] {
+  const outcomeByKey = new Map<string, string>();
+  for (const outcome of toOutcomeRecords(events)) {
+    outcomeByKey.set(recordKey(outcome.project, outcome.targetId), outcome.outcomeDecision);
+  }
+  return toPredictionRecords(ledger.readPredictions()).map((prediction) => {
+    const correct = resolveCorrect(prediction.predictedDecision, outcomeByKey.get(recordKey(prediction.project, prediction.targetId)));
+    return correct === undefined
+      ? { conclusion: prediction.predictedDecision }
+      : { conclusion: prediction.predictedDecision, correct };
+  });
 }
 
 // Open the local prediction ledger (or a test-injected one) for the duration of `run`, closing it only when we
 // opened it -- an injected ledger is owned by the caller. Mirrors event-ledger-cli.js's withEventLedger.
 function withPredictionLedger<T>(
   options: { initPredictionLedger?: () => PredictionLedger },
+  env: Record<string, string | undefined>,
   run: (ledger: PredictionLedger) => T,
 ): T {
   const ownsLedger = options.initPredictionLedger === undefined;
-  const ledger = (options.initPredictionLedger ?? initPredictionLedger)();
+  const ledger = (options.initPredictionLedger ?? (() => initPredictionLedger(resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath(env))))();
+  try {
+    return run(ledger);
+  } finally {
+    if (ownsLedger) ledger.close();
+  }
+}
+
+// Open the local event ledger (or a test-injected one) for the duration of `run`, closing it only when we opened
+// it. Mirrors withPredictionLedger above and calibration-cli.ts's bare `calibration` command: open via
+// initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env)), read once, close in a finally -- keeping `metrics` strictly
+// read-only and offline with no behavior change to its zero-argument usage contract.
+function withEventLedger<T>(
+  options: { initEventLedger?: () => EventLedger },
+  env: Record<string, string | undefined>,
+  run: (ledger: EventLedger) => T,
+): T {
+  const ownsLedger = options.initEventLedger === undefined;
+  const ledger = (options.initEventLedger ?? (() => initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env))))();
   try {
     return run(ledger);
   } finally {
     if (ownsLedger) ledger.close();
   }
 }
 
-export function runMetrics(args: string[], options: { initPredictionLedger?: () => PredictionLedger } = {}): number {
+export function runMetrics(
+  args: string[],
+  options: {
+    initPredictionLedger?: () => PredictionLedger;
+    initEventLedger?: () => EventLedger;
+    env?: Record<string, string | undefined>;
+  } = {},
+): number {
   if (args.length > 0) {
     return reportCliFailure(argsWantJson(args), METRICS_USAGE);
   }
 
+  const env = options.env ?? process.env;
   try {
-    return withPredictionLedger(options, (ledger) => {
-      // renderMinerPredictionMetrics returns a newline-terminated document; console.log re-adds the terminator, so
-      // trim it to emit exactly one trailing newline.
-      console.log(renderMinerPredictionMetrics(collectPredictionMetricRows(ledger)).trimEnd());
-      return 0;
-    });
+    return withPredictionLedger(options, env, (ledger) =>
+      withEventLedger(options, env, (eventLedger) => {
+        // renderMinerPredictionMetrics returns a newline-terminated document; console.log re-adds the terminator,
+        // so trim it to emit exactly one trailing newline.
+        console.log(renderMinerPredictionMetrics(collectPredictionMetricRows(ledger, eventLedger.readEvents())).trimEnd());
+        return 0;
+      }),
+    );
   } catch (error) {
     return reportCliFailure(argsWantJson(args), describeCliError(error));
   }

@@ -2,7 +2,15 @@ import { mkdtempSync, rmSync } from "node:fs";
 import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
 import { join } from "node:path";
 import { afterEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
-import { initPredictionLedger } from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/prediction-ledger.js";
+import {
+  initEventLedger,
+  resolveEventLedgerDbPath,
+} from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/event-ledger.js";
+import type { EventLedger, LedgerEntry } from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/event-ledger.js";
+import {
+  initPredictionLedger,
+  resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath,
+} from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/prediction-ledger.js";
 import {
   collectPredictionMetricRows,
   runMetrics,
@@ -20,24 +28,64 @@ function tempLedger(): PredictionLedger {
   return ledger;
 }
 
-function tempDbPath() {
+function tempEventLedger(): EventLedger {
+  const root = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "loopover-miner-metrics-cli-evt-"));
+  roots.push(root);
+  const ledger = initEventLedger(join(root, "event-ledger.sqlite3"));
+  ledgers.push(ledger);
+  return ledger;
+}
+
+function tempDir() {
   const root = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "loopover-miner-metrics-cli-"));
   roots.push(root);
-  return join(root, "prediction-ledger.sqlite3");
+  return root;
+}
+
+/** Env pointing both local stores at a fresh temp config dir (mirrors miner-calibration-cli.test.ts). */
+function tempConfigEnv(): Record<string, string | undefined> {
+  return { LOOPOVER_MINER_CONFIG_DIR: tempDir() };
 }
 
 function appendPrediction(ledger: PredictionLedger, targetId: number, conclusion: string) {
   ledger.appendPrediction({ repoFullName: "acme/widgets", targetId, conclusion, pack: "gittensor", engineVersion: "0.2.0" });
 }
 
+function seedPredictionEnv(env: Record<string, string | undefined>, targetId: number, conclusion: string) {
+  const store = initPredictionLedger(resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath(env));
+  store.appendPrediction({ repoFullName: "acme/widgets", targetId, conclusion, pack: "gittensor", engineVersion: "0.2.0" });
+  store.close();
+}
+
+function seedOutcomeEnv(env: Record<string, string | undefined>, prNumber: number, decision: string) {
+  const ledger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+  ledger.appendEvent({ type: "pr_outcome", repoFullName: "acme/widgets", payload: { prNumber, decision } });
+  ledger.close();
+}
+
+// Build a raw `pr_outcome` ledger row (or a deliberately malformed one) for the in-process join, exactly as
+// toOutcomeRecords would read it off the event ledger.
+let seq = 0;
+function outcomeEvent(prNumber: unknown, decision: unknown, repoFullName: string | null = "acme/widgets"): LedgerEntry {
+  seq += 1;
+  return {
+    id: seq,
+    seq,
+    type: "pr_outcome",
+    repoFullName,
+    payload: { prNumber, decision } as Record<string, unknown>,
+    createdAt: new Date(seq * 1000).toISOString(),
+  };
+}
+
 afterEach(() => {
   for (const ledger of ledgers.splice(0)) ledger.close();
   vi.restoreAllMocks();
   for (const root of roots.splice(0)) rmSync(root, { recursive: true, force: true });
 });
 
 describe("loopover-miner metrics CLI (#4838)", () => {
-  it("collectPredictionMetricRows projects ledger rows onto the renderer's conclusion-only shape", () => {
+  it("collectPredictionMetricRows leaves `correct` unset when no outcome events are supplied", () => {
     const ledger = tempLedger();
     appendPrediction(ledger, 1, "merge");
     appendPrediction(ledger, 2, "close");
@@ -51,34 +99,41 @@ describe("loopover-miner metrics CLI (#4838)", () => {
     appendPrediction(ledger, 3, "merge");
 
     const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => undefined);
-    expect(runMetrics([], { initPredictionLedger: () => ledger })).toBe(0);
+    // Inject an empty event ledger: no realized outcomes, so the correct/incorrect counters stay zero.
+    expect(runMetrics([], { initPredictionLedger: () => ledger, initEventLedger: () => tempEventLedger() })).toBe(0);
 
     const text = String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0]);
     expect(text).toContain("# TYPE loopover_miner_predictions_total counter");
     // Series are emitted in sorted conclusion order, so "close" precedes "merge".
     expect(text).toContain('loopover_miner_predictions_total{conclusion="close"} 1');
     expect(text).toContain('loopover_miner_predictions_total{conclusion="merge"} 2');
-    // No outcome-join exists yet, so both the correct and incorrect counters stay zero.
+    // No realized outcomes joined, so both the correct and incorrect counters stay zero.
     expect(text).toContain("loopover_miner_prediction_correct_total 0");
     expect(text).toContain("loopover_miner_prediction_incorrect_total 0");
     // The output is a single, once-terminated document (no doubled trailing blank line).
     expect(text.endsWith("\n")).toBe(false);
   });
 
-  it("runMetrics opens and closes its own default ledger when none is injected", () => {
-    const dbPath = tempDbPath();
-    const seed = initPredictionLedger(dbPath);
+  it("runMetrics opens and closes its own default ledgers when none are injected", () => {
+    const dir = tempDir();
+    const predictionDbPath = join(dir, "prediction-ledger.sqlite3");
+    const eventDbPath = join(dir, "event-ledger.sqlite3");
+    const seed = initPredictionLedger(predictionDbPath);
     appendPrediction(seed, 1, "hold");
     seed.close();
 
-    const prev = process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB;
-    process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB = dbPath;
+    const prevPrediction = process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB;
+    const prevEvent = process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_EVENT_LEDGER_DB;
+    process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB = predictionDbPath;
+    process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_EVENT_LEDGER_DB = eventDbPath;
     const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => undefined);
     try {
       expect(runMetrics([])).toBe(0);
     } finally {
-      if (prev === undefined) delete process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB;
-      else process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB = prev;
+      if (prevPrediction === undefined) delete process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB;
+      else process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_PREDICTION_LEDGER_DB = prevPrediction;
+      if (prevEvent === undefined) delete process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_EVENT_LEDGER_DB;
+      else process.env.LOOPOVER_MINER_EVENT_LEDGER_DB = prevEvent;
     }
     expect(String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0])).toContain('loopover_miner_predictions_total{conclusion="hold"} 1');
   });
@@ -122,4 +177,53 @@ describe("loopover-miner metrics CLI (#4838)", () => {
     ).toBe(2);
     expect(error).toHaveBeenCalledWith("prediction-ledger-unavailable");
   });
+
+  describe("outcome-join (#8315)", () => {
+    it("resolves each prediction's `correct` against the realized pr_outcome via the calibration join", () => {
+      const ledger = tempLedger();
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 1, "merge"); // realized merged  -> correct
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 2, "merge"); // realized closed  -> incorrect
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 3, "close"); // realized closed  -> correct
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 4, "close"); // realized merged  -> incorrect
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 5, "hold"); // hold has no realized counterpart -> unresolved
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 6, "merge"); // no outcome yet (pending)         -> unresolved
+      appendPrediction(ledger, 7, "merge"); // outcome present but unclassifiable -> unresolved
+
+      const events: LedgerEntry[] = [
+        outcomeEvent(1, "merged"),
+        outcomeEvent(2, "closed"),
+        outcomeEvent(3, "closed"),
+        outcomeEvent(4, "merged"),
+        outcomeEvent(5, "merged"),
+        // no event for prediction 6 (still pending)
+        outcomeEvent(7, "reopened"), // a well-formed pr_outcome whose decision is neither merged nor closed
+        outcomeEvent("not-a-number", "merged"), // malformed: non-integer prNumber -> skipped by toOutcomeRecords
+      ];
+
+      expect(collectPredictionMetricRows(ledger, events)).toEqual([
+        { conclusion: "merge", correct: true },
+        { conclusion: "merge", correct: false },
+        { conclusion: "close", correct: true },
+        { conclusion: "close", correct: false },
+        { conclusion: "hold" },
+        { conclusion: "merge" },
+        { conclusion: "merge" },
+      ]);
+    });
+
+    it("runMetrics opens the event ledger by env path and moves the correct/incorrect counters", () => {
+      const env = tempConfigEnv();
+      seedPredictionEnv(env, 1, "merge");
+      seedPredictionEnv(env, 2, "close");
+      seedOutcomeEnv(env, 1, "merged"); // merge predicted, merged realized  -> correct
+      seedOutcomeEnv(env, 2, "merged"); // close predicted, merged realized  -> incorrect
+
+      const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => undefined);
+      expect(runMetrics([], { env })).toBe(0);
+
+      const text = String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0]);
+      expect(text).toContain("loopover_miner_prediction_correct_total 1");
+      expect(text).toContain("loopover_miner_prediction_incorrect_total 1");
+    });
+  });
 });