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Test the falsification condition, and report that it holds
The positioning document named the condition under which this project is more than
a nicer way to write a gate: if a contract-driven gate and an equivalent if/else gate
do not differ measurably on unsupported completion, the value collapses. This runs
that test on `can_deliver` and the answer is that the condition holds.
One thing is decidable before any measurement: `can_deliver`'s policy is an if/else
chain over the answer probabilities, so the policy layer cannot be where a difference
lives. The experiment therefore varies only frame construction and validation, and
holds the thresholds character-for-character identical across arms.
Four arms over six scenarios and six perturbations (36 runs each):
contract 33 ok 0 false-accept 9 false-reject 0 refused
contract-strict 30 0 6 6
ifelse-best 30 0 6 6
ifelse-naive 33 0 9 0
Cell by cell: `contract` is identical to `ifelse-naive` on all six perturbations, and
`contract-strict` is identical to `ifelse-best`. They differ from each other only when
a declared cell goes missing.
The sharpest finding corrects the positioning document rather than confirming it: the
reference runtime records a missing cell in `unfilled` and nothing consumes it, so the
contract as shipped is indistinguishable from a hand-written gate that never considered
drift. The refusal that does exist lives in the Codex adapter, and a best-practice
hand-written gate reproduces it exactly. "Refusal at load time" is an adapter property,
and the document was crediting the contract for it.
Two more results worth as much as the headline:
· A zero false-accept rate under drift is not safety. Empty evidence makes every claim
unsupported, so the gate rejects everything — it has stopped working. That is why
every table reports both axes, and why `ifelse-best` was written with a guard: a gate
that rejects everything is perfect on false-accepts alone.
· `history: []` is refused by nothing, including the adapter discipline. `unfilled`
detects a key that was never supplied, not a supplied value that is empty — and that
is the transcript reader's actual failure shape.
Two perturbations (type drift) changed no verdict in any arm and are reported as failed
manipulations rather than deleted; deleting them would record an experiment that did not
happen as a conclusion that did.
The oracle is hand-authored and the judge is a substring proxy. Both are stated as the
weakest parts of the design rather than buried, since a hand-labelled oracle presented as
automatic is what makes this kind of number look harder than it is. The semantic judge
(hand-written LLM gate) needs a real backend and is the second arm.
Run: npm run gate-compare. Pinned by 11 tests, including a mutation check that fails if
the reference runtime ever starts refusing a missing cell.1 parent 41fcdf9 commit 99f0d39
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