Assignment_LookAndFeel/index1.html at master · quyle2020/Assignment_LookAndFeel · GitHub

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
<!--content source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247749-best-dividend-stocks-buy-slowing-economy -->

<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">

<head>
    <meta charset="UTF-8">
    <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
    <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="ie=edge">
    <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Playfair+Display|Roboto|Roboto+Slab" rel="stylesheet" />
    <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/main.css" />
    <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/index1.css" />
    <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://use.fontawesome.com/releases/v5.7.2/css/all.css" /> <!-- Icon -->
    <script src="http://code.jquery.com/jquery-3.3.1.js"></script>
    <script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/Chart.js/2.4.0/Chart.min.js"></script>
    <title>Best Dividend Stocks</title>
</head>

<body>
    <!-- Site Navigation Start -->

    <div class="topnav">
        <div class="limit-col">
            <div id="logo">
                <a href="index.html">
                    <img src="img/bull_wealth_logo.png">
                </a>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>

    <div class="topmenu">
        <div class="limit-col">
            <nav>
                <div class="hamburger">
                    <i class="fas fa-bars menu" aria-hidden="true"></i>
                </div>
                <a href="index.html"><i class="fas fa-home"></i></a>
                <a href="about.html">About</a>
                <a href="index2.html">Top 6 Dividend Stocks</a>
                <a href="index1.html">Best Dividend Stocks</a>
                <a href="index3.html">Investing Knowledge</a>
            </nav>
        </div>
    </div>
    <!-- Tiny script to toggle menu on smaller screens -->
    <script type="text/javascript">
        $(document).ready(function () {
            $('.menu').click(function () {
                $('nav a').toggleClass('active');
            })
        })
    </script>

    <!-- Site Navigation End -->
    <!-- Header Start -->
    <div class="row">
        <div class="header2">
            <div class="limit-col">
                <h1>Best Dividend Stocks</h1>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>
    <!-- Header End -->
    <!-- Main Content Start -->
    <div class="row limit-col colpad">

        <h1>In A Weakening Economy Undervalued Quality Dividend Stocks Are The Best Place To Put New Money To Work</h1>
        <p id="main-topic">With economic fundamentals now weakening significantly and pointing to just 1.5% GDP growth in the first half of 2019 (half 2018's growth rate) valuation becomes more important than ever for putting new money to work.</p>
        <p>
            With the S&P 500 up 10% YTD and now historically fairly valued (based on forward PE) buying quality undervalued dividend growth stocks is one of the best strategies you can use.

            The key is to have the right watchlists to know what's worth buying at any given time. I'm fortunate to build and maintain such watchlists as part of my career as a value-focused income growth investment analyst.

            This weekly watchlist series is designed to be a tool to give you solid investing ideas, so you can always know what's the best place to put your hard earned money to work at any given time. Specifically in companies with high margins of safety that have less to fall in a market correction, and which are all coiled springs that are likely to deliver outsized total returns if their valuations return to historical levels.

            To paraphrase a famous Latin quote (Fortuna Eruditis Favet "fortune favors the prepared mind")
        </p>
        <blockquote>"Fortune favors the prepared investor, and so disciplined investors prepared with quality watchlists and high savings will eventually make a fortune."</blockquote>


        <div class="cards">
            <h2>The Best Dividend Growth Stocks You Can Buy Today</h2>
            <p>
                This group of dividend growth blue-chips represents what I consider the best stocks you can buy today. They are presented in five categories, sorted by most undervalued (based on dividend yield theory using a five-year average yield).
            </p>
            <ul>
                <li>High yield (4+% yield)</li>
                <li>Fast dividend growth</li>
                <li>Dividend Aristocrats</li>
                <li>Dividend Kings</li>
                <li>My Bear Market Buy List (my master watchlist of quality dividend stocks worth owning)</li>
            </ul>
            <p>
                For the purposes of these valuation-adjusted total return potentials, I use the Gordon Dividend Growth Model, or GDGM (which is what Brookfield Asset Management uses). Since 1956, this has proven relatively accurate at modeling long-term total returns via the formula: Yield + Dividend growth. That's because, assuming no change in valuation, a stable business model (doesn't change much over time) and a constant payout ratio, dividend growth tracks cash flow growth.
            </p>
            <p>
                The valuation adjustment assumes that a stock's yield will revert to its historical norm within 10 years (over that time period, stock prices are purely a function of fundamentals). Thus, these valuation total return models are based on the formula: Yield + Projected 10-year dividend growth (analyst consensus, confirmed by historical growth rate) + 10-year yield reversion return boost.
            </p>
            <p>
                For example, if a stock with a historical average yield of 2% is trading at 3%, then the yield is 50% above its historical yield. This implies the stock is (3% current yield - 2% historical yield)/3% current yield = 33% undervalued. If the stock mean-reverts over 10 years, then this means the price will rise by 50% over 10 years just to correct the undervaluation.
            </p>
            <p>
                That represents a 4.1% annual total return just from valuation mean regression. If the stock grows its cash flow (and dividend) at 10% over this time, then the total return one would expect from this stock would be 3% yield + 10% dividend (and FCF/share) growth + 4.1% valuation boost = 17.1%.
            </p>
            <p>
                The historical margin of error for this valuation-adjusted model is about 20% (the most accurate I've yet discovered).
            </p>
        </div>
        <!-- Chart Start -->
        <canvas id="top5_HY_BC"></canvas>
        <script>
            var ctx = document.getElementById('top5_HY_BC').getContext('2d');
            var chart = new Chart(ctx, {
                // The type of chart we want to create
                type: 'bar',

                // The data for our dataset
                data: {
                    labels: [["Yield"],
                    ["Fair Value Yield"],
                    ["HistoricalYield", "(High)"],
                    ["Discount to", "Fair Value"],
                    ["5 Year Annualized", " Cash Flow Growth"],
                    ["Valuation Adujusted ", "Total Return Potential"]],
                    datasets: [{
                        label: "SKT",
                        backgroundColor: 'rgb(255, 99, 132)',
                        borderColor: 'rgb(255, 99, 132)',
                        data: [6.9, 3.5, 6.8, 48, 4.8, 17.8],
                    }, {
                        label: "ENB",
                        backgroundColor: 'rgb(255, 175, 192)',
                        borderColor: 'rgb(255, 175, 192)',
                        data: [6.2, 3.8, 6.6, 39, 6, 19.1],
                    }, {
                        label: "KIM",
                        backgroundColor: 'rgb(127, 88, 96)',
                        borderColor: 'rgb(127, 88, 96)',
                        data: [6.5, 4.1, 24.5, 36, 3.6, 15.7],
                    }, {
                        label: "MO",
                        backgroundColor: 'rgb(204, 79, 106)',
                        borderColor: 'rgb(204, 79, 106)',
                        data: [5.8, 4.0, 14.4, 30, 8, 17.1],
                    }, {
                        label: "MMP",
                        backgroundColor: 'rgb(127, 88, 96)',
                        borderColor: 'rgb(127, 88, 96)',
                        data: [6.7, 5.0, 12.0, 30, 6.5, 16.9],
                    }]
                },

                // Configuration options go here
                options: {
                    title: {
                        display: true,
                        text: 'Top 5 High-Yield Blue-Chips To Buy Today',
                        fontSize: 16,
                        fontFamily: "'Roboto', 'Arial'"
                    },
                    legend: {
                        display: true
                    },
                    scales: {
                        yAxes: [{
                            scaleLabel: {
                                display: true,
                                labelString: 'Percentage, ( % )'
                            }
                        }],
                        xAxes: [{
                            ticks: {
                                minRotation: 0,
                                padding: 12
                            }
                        }]
                    },

                }
            });
        </script>
        <!-- Chart End -->


        <div class="col-6 col-s-6 colpad">

            <h2>Discounted Cash Flow</h2>
            <p>
                Fundamentally, any company is worth the present value of all its future cash flow. That's as basic a valuation method as you can get. However, in reality, the future is uncertain, and the discount rate you use, as well your growth assumptions, can make a DCF model say pretty much anything you want.
            </p>
            <p>
                This is why I consider Morningstar's 100% long-term, fundamentals-driven and conservative analysts to be a great source of DCF estimated fair values.
            </p>
            <p>
                Those analysts generally assume slower growth than the analyst consensus and even sometimes management itself. As a result, Morningstar four and five star rated companies can be thought of as "strong buy" or "very strong buy" recommendations, respectively, from analysts whom I consider among the best in the business.
            </p>
            <p>
                Above you can see the top-rated companies that my Deep Value Dividend Growth portfolio owns. Every company presented here is one that my own long-term, valuation-adjusted total return model (based on the one Brookfield Asset Management has been using for decades) expects to generate at least 13% long-term total returns (margin of error 20%).
            </p>
            <p>
                Note that only the companies with "5-star prices" are ones that Morningstar has done a deep dive on. The "Q" rated companies are merely compared to their peer groups, and thus, not necessarily as reliable.
            </p>
            <p>
                But DCF is far from the only valuation method you should consider.
            </p>

        </div>


        <div class="col-6 col-s-6 colpad">
            <h2>Price-To-Earnings</h2>
            <p>
                Remember that Yale valuation study that looked at stocks based on P/E ratio? Well, the venerable P/E ratio is one of the most popular valuation approaches, and for good reason. While no valuation method is perfect, a good rule of thumb (from Chuck Carnevale, the SA king of value investing and founder of F.A.S.T Graphs) is to never pay more than 15 times forward earnings for a company.
            </p>
            <p>
                Chuck usually compares companies to their historical P/E ratios, and he's ranked in the top 1.4% of all analysts tracked by TipRanks (based on the forward 12-month total returns of his recommendations). While 12 months is hardly "long term," the point is that Mr. Carnevale is a fantastic value investing analyst, and so, his rule of thumb is well worth keeping in mind.
            </p>
            <p>
                Here's DVDGP's portfolio holdings that have forward PEs of 15 or less.
            </p>
            <p>
                Note that stewardship rating is Morningstar's estimate of the quality of the management team. P = poor (DVDGP's policy is to avoid all such companies), S = standard (average to good), and E = exemplary (very good to excellent).
            </p>
            <p>
                But while both DCF and forward P/E are great methods to value a company, personally my absolute favorite, and what I use to invest my own money and make most of my recommendations, is Dividend Yield Theory, or DYT. This is how I create my five watchlists, which I intend to use to invest all my savings for the rest of my life.
            </p>
        </div>
    </div>
    <!-- Main Content End -->
    <!-- Footer Start -->
    <div class="row">
        <div class="footer">
            <div class="limit-col">
                <blockquote>
                    "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
                </blockquote>
                <blockquote class="quoting">
                    -- Warren Buffet
                </blockquote>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>
    <!-- Footer End -->

</body>
</html>