Is Option CALCULATE_BURN_PROBABILITY available?

[bhubergeomer]

I wanted to try the Monte Carlo option with many random ignition location and use the CALCULATE_BURN_PROBABILITY = .TRUE. option which is mentionend in the documentation (https://elmfire.io/user_guide/monte_carlo.html).

But in the current version (elmfire_2024.0103) this option seems to be removed.

Is there another option availble to calculate an aggregated file "burn_probability.tif" of the single simulations as mentioned in the documentation?

[lautenberger]

The CALCULATE_BURN_PROBABILITY option has been removed because it's redundant with CALCULATE_TIMES_BURNED. If you set that keyword to .TRUE. (on the &OUTPUTS) namelist group, ELMFIRE will emit a burn count file named times_burned.bil or times_burned.tif. That raw burn count raster can then be converted to annual burn probability by dividing burn count by the number of years of ignitions simulated. For example, if you model 10,000 years of ignitions then the annualized burn probability is 0.0001 * times_burned.

[bhubergeomer]

Hello!
Thanks for your hint.

I activated CALCULATE_TIMES_BURNED = .TRUE. and calculated with these MONTE_CARLO Options:
&MONTE_CARLO METEOROLOGY_BAND_START = 1 METEOROLOGY_BAND_STOP = 6 RANDOM_IGNITIONS = .TRUE. USE_IGNITION_MASK = .TRUE. NUM_ENSEMBLE_MEMBERS = 2000 /

2000 simulatiosn are made but the times_burned.bil created contains only NODATA Values.
The fire_size_stats.csv looks fine.

Are there any other options to be activated for filling the times_burned.bil ?

[lautenberger]

If you post a link to your input deck I'd be happy to take a look to figure out what's going on.

[bhubergeomer]

inputs_bhubergeomer_001.zip

Hello! I've attached my testing data input.