wsbsentiment.csv

Yolo'd my first ever 8k on an FHA 35 mortgage 2 years ago and now have over 100k 'equity' Loving this K shaped recovery lol Idk if this is allowed,,positive
Britons use of consumer credit is rising with the cost of living,Excuse my retardedness but couldn't this lead to a minifinancialcrisis in the long run Retards outside Britain do you have similar services to BNPL  ampx200B  It was either use buynowpaylater bnpl or starve so I used it Audrey a pensioner who had been unable to pay for a 40 53 food shop admitted this to Citizens Advice a charity I sort of knew I would struggle to make the repayments but I did not have any other way of getting food She decided to spend the money on canned food rather than fresh produce so it would last longer  ampx200B  Audrey is far from alone Fintech startups have spent recent years reviving pointofsale lending now dubbed bnpl Business is booming Klarna the largest provider by market share started offering bnpl to British consumers in 2016 and now counts nearly a third of the adult population as customers Citizens Advice estimates that one in 12 Britons used bnpl loans in the second half of 2021 to buy essential goods such as food and toiletries  ampx200B  The evidence that bnpl itself causes financial distress is limited But it can encourage people to spend more than they otherwise might And notes Peter Tutton of StepChange a debt charity it is frequently used by those who are already struggling In the year to October 2021 one in three bnpl borrowers had either made a late payment or missed one altogether of those 56 had been refused a credit card  ampx200B  That was before the cost of living started to rise in earnest The energy price cap which limits suppliers default tariffs rose by 12 last October On April 1st it jumped by a whopping 54 It could spike again by a similar amount in the autumn Foodprice inflation is also rising In the last six months of 2021 food prices were 15 higher than for the same period the previous year Over the next two months they rose by a further 37 On April 6th a rise in national insurance a payroll tax took effect  ampx200B  It is all going to add up predicts the Office for Budget Responsibility to the biggest drop in real household disposable incomes in any tax year since records began in 1956 Running down savings scrimping more and wearing extra jumpers can all help But taking out credit is another way to cover the bills Sure enough net creditcard borrowing in February was 15bnhigher in real terms than in any month since March 2004 see chart httpswwweconomistcomimgb60065390sitesdefaultfilesimagesprintedition20220409_BRC058pnghttpswwweconomistcomimgb60065390sitesdefaultfilesimagesprintedition20220409_BRC058png  ampx200B  Straitened times have a habit of encouraging unsustainable borrowing The years that followed the financial crisis of 200709 saw a boom in payday lending with firms selling highcost loans to people who couldnt pay them back In 2014 the Financial Conduct Authority fca took over regulation of consumer credit Four years later Wonga then Britains biggest payday lender collapsed into administration amid plummeting sales and a surge in compensation claims for misselling  ampx200B  For Stella Creasy a Labour mp the parallels with todays bnpl lenders are uncomfortable Theyre doing exactly the same thing payday lenders did its getting people into the habit of using debt she says And regulation is proceeding at a snails pace despite an fca review identifying an urgent need for it in 2021 A legal loophole designed to make invoicing easier means that bnpl loans are unregulated as long as they are timelimited and interestfree Results from a Treasury consultation are expected in the spring after which the fca is likely to solicit yet more input That leaves a lot of time for more growth before regulation kicks in  ampx200B  Others worry about the fca itself There is a history of the fca not acting as quickly or as robustly as it should to protect consumers says Damon Gibbons of the Centre for Responsible Credit a thinktank The Wonga collapse is one example an initial redress scheme set up by the fca in 2014 was limited to just 45000 customers The firm ended up owing some 390000 borrowers 460m only a small fraction of which it could pay  ampx200B  Nor is this the only case of the fca falling short in recent years In 2019 London Capital amp Finance lcf a minibond issuer collapsed wiping out 237m of investors savings A subsequent independent review cited the fcas failure to regulate lcf appropriately or to adequately supervise its compliance The regulator has since restructured its supervision arm and appointed a new executive director Sheldon Mills to take charge of consumer protection We need to be more proactive we need to be faster and we need to improve our systems says Mr Mills Given what is coming there is no time to lose  Sauce httpswwweconomistcombritain20220407britonsuseofconsumercreditisrisingwiththecostoflivinghttpswwweconomistcombritain20220407britonsuseofconsumercreditisrisingwiththecostofliving,negative
Norwegian salmon over eggs,,neutral
Calling all dividend investors  Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields A good chunk of them are whats called a yield trap Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut,Calling all dividend investors   Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields   A good chunk of them are what's called a yield trap  Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut  Few people realize this until the dividend gets cut and it's too late  I look for businesses that will continue to pay dividends raise those dividends higher than inflation and they have growth divers that will increase their share price  Stay away from high dividend yields   gt Find out why the company has such a high dividend yield before considering it   gt Yields that appear unrealistically high often end up being suspended or cut leaving investors who bought the stock just for the dividend disappointed,negative
Let get fucked This is not how imagined 2022 I feel like shutting down the operation and just disappear for a year,,negative
Whitehouse bracing for elevated inflation announcement tomorrow,httpswwwwashingtonexaminercomwhitehousebracingforextraordinarilyelevatedinflationaheadofnextreport The Biden administration is bracing for inflation to continue its historic rise when the March Consumer Price Index is published Tuesday morning White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in Monday's briefing that while we are in a better place than we were last month the administration expects headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike,negative
Can cathie wood still trust her Feels like she's more and more like a liar,,negative
One of us,,positive
Elon declines offer to join Twitter Board,,neutral
Decent Week for Tech Puts,,positive
$BB JOINS CISA AND U APES DO NOTHING ,,negative
AMC Earnings on May 5th Opportunity for gains,Hey fellas first time posting so be kind     Here is an absolutely stupid idea I want to discuss I am considering call options for 30 on May 6th day after AMC earnings report     You know it has been a bad couple years for the cinema industry but as of recent companies seem to be recovering with AMC specifically reporting a loss of 100 something million much narrower than last year's 900 and an increase in revenue of 165M     At the same time foot traffic datahttpswwwunacastcompostthebatmanamcentertainment2022earnings aren't optimal with a notable drop but while the bat didn't do too too much the newly released and soon to be released movies may actually change this     Sonic 2 projected to make over 50Millionhttpswwwforbescomsitesscottmendelson20220408boxofficesonicthehedgehog2racestohuge6millionthursdaysh49dfca3a6198   Fantastic Beasts  April 15th FB1 and 2 made 800 and 600 Million respectively on box office   The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent  April 15th very positive reviews from critics thus far   The Northman  April 22nd similar to the above     I am also thinking that we will see a spike in volatility sooner or later so this may be an optimal time to place a call What do you think,positive
Trust the white cane,,neutral
Elon going Hostile,,negative
Every time someone takes on a new bet,,neutral
TLRY OPTIONS YOLO $7K ON FDs,,positive
Statistical approche of trading options,   My idea is simple and u just need office 365 at least it's more comfortable that way  1 I get every available daily last price for a ticker 2 For every day I calculate how a trade would have performed if I would have held for x Days x is the count of days till expiration 3 I choose how far away from the money I want to trade depends on the strategy 4 I divide the number of trades that would have gone in your favor by the number of total trades 5 Done  Example for my current position in WFC  Setup  I sold a put option with expiration on April 14  3 DTE with a strike of 4650   Currently the stock is 56 above my strike  Statistics 1   Within the past 6888 trading days WFC dropped by 56 in 3 Days 280 times   2806888 is 407  gt The statistical chance of being assigned is therefore this exact 407  Delta is currently 0168 for me that is overvalued although i know about earnings call at Friday  Statistics 2  WFC had it's last high on March 22 which are 17 DTE until 144 At this day the high was 5418  The distance to my strike is therefore 1417  WFC has fallen by 1417 within 17 days 146 times  1466888  212  That makes a 212 Chance of getting assigned  I know things are not necessarily so simple but without special events this is a good statistical edge you can get,neutral
How I feel when I wake up on the weekends,,neutral
Soybean futures ,,positive
Russian Palladium Refiners banned by London's Platinum and Palladium Market and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange SBSW and other nonRussian Palladium companies stand to gain massively,On Friday the London Platinum and Palladium Market a major trading venue for Palladium and other platinum group metals banned two major Russian state owned Palladium refineries from having their Palladium and Platinum sold on the LPPM's London and Zurich exchangeshttpswwwmarketwatchcomstorypalladiumandplatinumpricesjumpafterlondonmarketblocksrussianpreciousmetals11649521364 This was followed up by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also banning the same Russian state owned refiners todayhttpsfinanceyahoocomnewspalladiumextendsgainssuspensionrussian234518049html Additionally the Japanese Exchange Group's Osaka exchange is now also reviewing whether or not to ban Russian Palladium and Platinum refiners This has major implications in the Palladium market as Russia produces about 40 of the world's Palladiumhttpswwwredditcomrwallstreetbetscommentss72z1uhow_to_profit_off_a_russian_invasion_of_ukraine Russia's Palladium and Platinum exports were one of the very last major Russian exports left that were not subject to any major sanctions As civilian deaths mount in the RussoUkrainian War more and more pressure will mount on Western governments and financial regulators to cut Russia further out of the world markets Any removal of Russian palladium from the world market gives an excellent opportunity for nonRussian Palladium producers to profit Aside from Russia major palladium mines are located in South Africa the United States and Canada Palladium is used heavily in both the car industry and electronics industry being used in both catalytic converters and integrated circuits If major automakers and chip makers are no longer allowed to buy Russian Palladium they will be all forced to compete for Palladium produced by companies like Sibanye Stillwater SBSW which controls nearly all of American Palladium mining production and has major mines in South Africa and Impala Platinum Holdings JSE IMP which has major Canadian and South African mines    I am long 400 shares of SBSWhttpswwwredditcomuserScipioAtTheGatecommentsu18vdvsbsw_wsb_proof,negative
ShOrTs R fUq WeRe BeRs At insert shitty GIF,,negative
The duality of man,,neutral
Remember guys we're sending a message,,negative
Keep my stock outta yo fuggin MOUF Hype Video meme,,neutral
Using available margin cushion to sell puts Seems too great Am I missing something,Sell 2 TSLA Jun 2023 puts  1050 Buy 400 TSLA shares with option premium 250 amp cash Margin cushion to sell puts money earnt from it to buy shares  Logic  1 Premium covers a 25 drop Loss only if lt 800 1 year later can offset by selling another put 2 Premium covers a 25 gain Lose potential gains only if gt1300 compared to buying extra stock on margin 3 I don't pay margin interest and earn time value while I wait  No downside apart from  1 Margin call risk if Tesla lt 500 2 Single stock concentration risk 3 Key man risk  Thoughts,positive
 I SPY TWTR TSLA TA  Monday April 11 2022  Scalpers Delight,ampx200B      bearish measured move targets       bullish measured move targets    look for   SPY   Lose 44667  44601 and   44486  44351   44066  43731 needs to lose 443  Break 44782 and   44926  45059   45386  45717 needs to break 45059  15 minhttpspreviewredditv4019vn6fqs81pngwidth3412ampformatpngampautowebpampse20f6b75bc01e50f932398e9491fe9510276a7f5   TWTR    4452  4317 needs to lose 4581  Break 4666 and  4728  Break 4728 and  4787  4854   4992  5130 needs to break 4854  15 minhttpspreviewreddit4k7rsk9jfqs81pngwidth3412ampformatpngampautowebpampscca05fc975c8ff85ddc00fabc3c0a9a4f6545f8c   TSLA    100258  97744 needs to break 102770  102154  Break 104346 and  105673  106517  107891    110409  112954 needs to break 107891  15 minhttpspreviewreddit5dngkv40gqs81pngwidth3412ampformatpngampautowebpamps1b63f115165143f9d49a8327da9d1a4d55c0da46  Thanks for reading  NightMan,positive
What true bagholding is actually like,,positive
The same 10k I won since the ending of February im throwing it all on $tsla Please  All I pray for is a green average day,,positive
Norwegian salmon as an investment,ampx200B  MOWI chart from the last monthhttpspreviewredditnvxpky5ylvs81jpgwidth434ampformatpjpgampautowebpamps370c0a345853bd7485f79647ca4c8fc9c6c069e5  Hello friends  it's been a month since Biden banned Russian seafood imports and that has caused Norwegian salmon to moon for 19  since then I tried to warn about this as soon as I heard the news but WSB didn't let me post because I am so new here I think this is the last chance to hop on board before it's mooning to euphoric rates  Norwegian salmon is also a hedge for the looming food crisis As the lowest carbon emitting source of animal protein Norwegian salmon will cover for shortages in other foods Also Omega 3's and stuff  Mvh  Sven,negative
$BBAI The story of a bear that hates it's own kind,I'm a straight shooter so I'll add TLDR first  TLDR I believe BBAI to have a reduced float of 1 million shares and a short interest of 900 thousand And is ripe for short andor gamma squeeze   REDUCED FLOAT  If you check the float online the number you'll get is just over 12 million shares THIS IS WRONG  Let's first start with total outstanding shares Which is 135566227 shares according to the latest s1A filing Image below is from page 73httpswwwsecgovArchivesedgardata1836981000119312522093723d271170ds1ahtm  httpspreviewredditgsd42izxnts81pngwidth1032ampformatpngampautowebpamps4aef4d74336ac0944e3eb3d991afb093e0837957  Of these 135 million shares 124564920 shares are locked for one year from date of consummation of merger Which was December 7th 2021 So this means these 124 million shares are locked until DECEMBER 7th 2022 or till price stays above 1250 20 out 30 days We are still in April and price hasn't met the 20 out of 30 condition either far from it  httpspreviewredditsflxhmh1ots81pngwidth1043ampformatpngampautowebpampse49805f3be0b89a10e6b87991b5db96b07997904  Quick maths  135566227124564920 11001307  proofhttpspreviewreddituexvwym4ots81pngwidth841ampformatpngampautowebpamps2e18b0618612b8a1ebe91c2ddc79d4a22acc9178  Out of the 11 million shares about 99 million was owned by three entities Highbridge Tenor and Glazer  page 38httpspreviewreddityq0h181eots81pngwidth758ampformatpngampautowebpamps370c86575129020024d16464d60fd110a9eda42e  During December BBAI offered these three a forward purchase agreement and gave Highbridge Tenor and Glazer three months to agree The forward purchase agreement or fpa basically said weBBAI can buy your shares for 1015 if you want to sell them in December BBAI traded for like 78 bucks You can assume what these 3 entities did  They all sold by the deadline given httpspreviewredditz03by3vhots81pngwidth1878ampformatpngampautowebpampsd7f5378c60f6644dfcf217a9530ee6893b06c847  latest 10k showing the 3 soldhttpswwwsecgovixdocArchivesedgardata0001836981000162828022008031bbai20211231htm  Quick maths  11001307  9952803 1048504  httpspreviewredditr5kc6a9qots81pngwidth827ampformatpngampautowebpamps1e56d9c8873aa9bb36974aaa5a0d038112fa89bc  So now that we have established the float at 1048504 shares lets get to the fun parts   SHORT INTEREST  httpspreviewredditdiy0fjdvots81pngwidth610ampformatpngampautowebpampscd238a7dd5f43e3798c6fe7ef600dcf283176319  YES SHORT INTEREST IS 864  of float   FTD  ampx200B  httpspreviewreddit0lb4ank2pts81pngwidth565ampformatpngampautowebpampsd5d47561da364ae2818fd8ffe28aedffc4838dc2  Notice how the FTD's increase as float shrinks   OPTIONS STATS  ampx200B  85amp37 callshttpspreviewredditb785r796pts81pngwidth588ampformatpngampautowebpamps50f21c20d9f269c02ef9e3d94c7a42bfe734a77d  April OIhttpspreviewreddit8gzqnd2dpts81pngwidth1115ampformatpngampautowebpamps95713a199cf22f8e5215965c34a1b4fed5da3005  Let me do something retarded for a sec You see that open interest on the 15s Well they have a delta of 13 So that means for MM to remain delta neutral they shorted 87 shares for every call right So if say the price goes up from here and these 15s go in the money and the delta for the 15s now is 1 this means MMs have to delta hedge 1300000 shares right And I showed earlier how the float is ONLY 1048504 and short interest is 906000  SO THIS MEANS PRICE COULD GO PARABOLIC IF MARKET MAKERS ARE DELTA HEDGING AT THE SAME TIME SHORTS ARE TRYING TO COVER  ampx200B  97amp37 callshttpspreviewredditx3uwfoxgpts81pngwidth588ampformatpngampautowebpamps44748b663738f5b5b6f4bd3549efd1adea5cd843  May OIhttpspreviewreddit7kapvmnlpts81pngwidth1101ampformatpngampautowebpamps3a1ca61b4c4a9ac698016bb8942a71114a2fd403  This shit is crazy   ORTEX  ampx200B  httpspreviewredditu3sc9cxspts81pngwidth1675ampformatpngampautowebpamps7d303677a3a52eb31b1ce9012299990a76e1be14  Ortex numbers are insane too Lets break em down  First let's address the utilization A high utilization means a crowded short right Meaning a bunch of people are shorting a stock  But why is utilization so low for BBAI Well check out cost to borrow costs They go as high as 900 That's SST range and that went as high as 37 dollars this past week Also a locked float situation  Try as an experiment to short a share of BBAI You won't be able to find a share to short The stock is that illiquid That's why I believe once this goes parabolic it's gonna go go Cause no one in their right mind is paying 100s of percent trying to borrow shares to short  httpspreviewredditpzhty61cqts81pngwidth1461ampformatpngampautowebpamps0158ddb679812fa006e4095bafe43123da785e1d  Found this on twitter httpspreviewreddit5r6gakseqts81pngwidth1396ampformatpngampautowebpampsce23f361cc47dd17b11ef47764dde3416864693d   POSITIONS  130 April 10s  38 April 15s  Special thanks to alilfishy for bringing it to my attention,positive
$GOOGL is trading at 5year low PE,I don't understand why GOOGL is performing so poorly  Near term catalysts include a stock split and rebound in travel helping Google Flights etc Furthermore this 5year low includes the 20172019 tightening cycle COVID crash etc Have I found a real gem where the market has made an error or is the market signaling something I don't quite understand I've copy pasted the JPMorgan note below where they basically highlight some negatives Most interesting to me is the Return to office will cost more Are they talking about free food and shuttles at Google  httpspreviewreddit5yy3uhl1hvs81pngwidth1144ampformatpngampautowebpampsd3a7d98d00ad26891d970982799638be22e46cd2  To be fair JPM research highlights the following in a recent note  Heading into 1Q22 Internet earnings were trimming estimates for 11 companies  across our coverage universe Key factors driving our revisions include 1 impact  from the RussiaUkraine war amp contagionspillover effect mostly in Europe 2 softer  brand ad spending as marketers avoid ad placements near controversial content 3 risk  of lighter consumer spending given inflation amp higher gas prices wgreater impact at  the low end amp 4 miscellaneous model tweaks Online ad names comprise 6 of the 11  companies GOOGL FB SNAP PINS TWTR CRTO as they are impacted by all of  the factors noted above We expect the ad names to continue to decelerate through 2Q  amp for most of them to face margin compression in 2022 given increased hiring RTTO  amp more normalized TampE,negative
$SPY  Predictions for the week of 411,Last week I said that SPY was going to slope down with nothing crazy that happened except my 5 day forecast got inversed  The days that I thought would be bearish were actually bullish    I was thinking about this and noticed how there is hundreds of ways the week could play out  that would result in SPY going down    I am still going to continue the 5 Day Outlook because it is something funny to do just take it with a grain of salt because it is seriously impossible to predict every single day before the futures market even opens I write these Saturday morning    ampx200B  1 Day Charthttpspreviewreddit3c7dxrxlxis81pngwidth1480ampformatpngampautowebpamps27e05d57d4deb60529bae70e73e6937f820f3fa2  The main levels have been the same for about a month now  Support 432  Resistance 452  The RSI is showing the K approaching an oversold reading there will at least be a short term relief in the selling pressure overall  1 Day Charthttpspreviewreddit3kyth9hiyis81pngwidth1481ampformatpngampautowebpamps590c166936580732ddbcfe55540e897b0827817c  I would classify the bollinger band with as a somewhat mean reverting indicator to get a sense of the overall volatility  Since the bollinger bands have a relative wide span we can assume that we will likely be entering a phase of lower volatility    ampx200B  CPI Data Release Datehttpspreviewreddit74xv9ut6zis81pngwidth510ampformatpngampautowebpamps5317e8515c102614e5d3e4562d01e737d38e4a72  Everyone is going to be watching the CPI data when it is released on Tuesday  Remember that Ukraine was invaded February 24th so all of the effects on the global markets were felt last month in March    All retail investors will be watching and all of Wall Street will be watching  This is not going to be pretty  FAO Food Price Indexhttpspreviewreddityvh0vf9wzis81pngwidth1132ampformatpngampautowebpampse34b8ef7f7ab646a82ab92ddeb390904aae8bf20  Food prices have gotten to absurd levels this shows how bad inflation has affected everyone  ampx200B  10 Year Government Bond Yieldshttpspreviewredditaqdn0tzb0js81pngwidth604ampformatpngampautowebpampsf55675378beeee4b52b194fdd5a0e0b08e6c5d43  I saw this chart floating around that shows a historical trend line of the major economic recessions in the United States and how they correlate to to the 10Y yield     30 Year Bond Yield Compared to SPXhttpspreviewredditkcgcgrvu1js81pngwidth1477ampformatpngampautowebpampsf3c71b58593de6c7c8bab287a6604785595a46d2  I was looking around and can conclude that the 30 Year bond Yields have more variation but are a better indicator for timing the end of an economic cycle  There is nothing to be done now I am just waiting  I still have a lot of positions open when this crash starts I will start to liquidate everything believe me it will be very noticeable when it starts   ampx200B  Federal Reserve FOMC statementhttpspreviewredditjtdfyt5m3js81pngwidth605ampformatpngampautowebpamps12b1e18659efc463475d55f038f17d0baf6db894  Bullard is concerned for the economy and wants at least a 50 to 75bp rate hike  I actually found this kind of interesting because he is one of the least corrupt people in office  He has a net worth around 5 million which is surprisingly low for having inside information  He also has never worked with big banks and he also assumed office at the top of the 2008 financial bubble when everyone else was leaving their positions  He definitely knows what is going on and what needs to be done to save the economy  The federal reserve will eventually have to become more aggressive in rate hikes  ampx200B  Crude Oil CFDshttpspreviewredditlnygmwzi5js81pngwidth1479ampformatpngampautowebpampsd943fa66e23d9a16dc6745f34c4e1246e88f48dd  Predictions  Tuesday is going to be an extremely important day  I have seen some analysts saying that inflation could spike to 10  Oil rose 35 in March reaching a high over 130 per barrel  I am expecting inflation to be at least 85 which is going to shock the markets    Another factor is that we have never experienced a market crash with as many high frequency trading algorithms that we have now  The covid crash was not a complete recession but we saw the insane movements intraday on all the indices  I am fearing that there could be some massive panic selloff which is accelerated by high frequency algorithms in the near term  The chances of this happening on Tuesday are low but are increasing as each day passes    The amount of people who are bullish on the market is also decreasing every single day even people on WSB are starting to fear a recession and feel it will be a more likely outcome  I hate to be that person but over the last year with unemployment decreasing spending increasing and now inflation accelerating this is exactly like the roaring 20s before the great recession  No need to speculate that far ahead this is only a one week prediction  Also I doubt the Federal Reserve would let the stock market crash over 80 without interfering  At most there will be a 50 bear market similar to 2008  The stock market will still be sloping down this week except the inflation data will cause some panic sell then it should recover in the following days    Not professional financial advice do not solely make your trades based on my opinions I encourage everyone to research more   TLDR  httpspreviewredditj38bqv92ajs81pngwidth1281ampformatpngampautowebpamps39172bb2a032402fe4c78d52443440fff4a1a227  I will respond to every comment,positive
Elon hostile take over $TWTR, For as long as Musk is serving on the Twitter board or 90 days after he can't own more than 149 of Twitter's stock either as an individual or as a member of a group the filing says Musk will serve as a Class II director until 2024   But  If Elon decided to not take the seat in the board he can buy more than 149 of Twitter shares Twitter CEO did the board member move to Elon as away to prevent take over by Elon And very recently Elon rejected the board member seat So hostile take over will be the next Elon move,neutral
41122 SPY AMD QQQ F Apple VIX Daily TA,    The day before CPI the bulls were fast asleep snoozing the day away while the bears frolicked After waiting over a month I ALMOST got my 2 red day If you remember my TA from Friday I was pretty certain today would play out pretty much exactly how it did today The key on Friday for me was the resistance at the daily 8ema and wicking below the 20 50 and 100emas We finally got the close below them today While im not a huge fan of overnight plays on SPY Friday was one of those days   The bears came out in full action without any signs they were going to stop today To color me impressed would be an understatement Today is one of the first days in months that I can remember SPY not closing a single candle inverse of the trend on the 15min chart What I mean today is despite only 4 candle bodies above the 15 min 8ema there was not a single candle closed above the 15min 8ema which is a VERY strong trend It is a rare day in SPY world that the trend doesnt have at least one to three candles inverse of the trend on the 8ema above for bearish and below for bullish   ampx200B  httpspreviewreddit1hpw0uyrqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps89e988c2486c9a35886e64c0572dda7db4c7f52f  We actually established yet another downward channel today that I dont suspect to really matter much over night as most intraday channels will end up being negated due to time lapse   ampx200B  httpspreviewredditnzmwaslsqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps460f3ed4daf222a62703d594bc51c6a74e98085e  ampx200B  httpspreviewredditli7lzt7tqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps4347b8f4c091377d1ce4fba1560a3adac832fe92  We are clearly within the triple red channel still and as I mentioned this morning we broke down through the top tiers support and now are trading within the middle tier We also established a purple downward resistance line that was started Friday morning I am not sure if that will hold over night either though due to time lapse   But on the red triple channel the middle tier support puts us near 436 and resistance is near 441 at open tomorrow I dont really forsee unless CPI truly is like 95 or 10 that we do it but if we break through the middle tier support next support is near 430 to 431  ampx200B  httpspreviewredditgk5l6gstqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampsb1186f1a49dfdb4c8482bfe6b8db71a3e6c0a15d  The daily chart is something of beauty to me As you can see we clearly broke the RED upward bull channel and there is no change to salvage that nor readjust it to even convince me we are still in that Surprisingly we actually broke support of the bearish grey channel too However I went ahead and adjusted that to look as so now   ampx200B  httpspreviewreddit14m0bnhuqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampscb628bb79afa7a42f5d89e96ee5161666ca6c136  The daily chart tells nothing but a very bearish omen for SPY right now Today we not only opened below the 20 50 and 100 ema on the daily 44521 44655 and 44663 but we also wicked below the daily 200 ema AND closed below it I would be very surprised again unless CPI is some miracle WAY better than expected for us to not retest the 420 to 430 support area at this rate The MACD is still confirmed bearish and RSI at 45 has plenty of room for downside   Channel support is 437 and resistance is 451 unlimited upside BUT being that we actually broke this channel today I am not convinced that 437 is very accurate Price action wise I look at 430 as the next major support for SPY Of course I dont suspect outside of a terrible CPI that we will see that tomorrow   ampx200B  httpspreviewredditb7xoaqpvqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps7116303960c6b14d65486a7a6055fe9d2f6ebe3b  Weekly Spy chart is very busy as we continue to search for the channel we are within However we too opened and closed a full candle completely below the weekly 20 and 8ema 44396 4459 The next support for the weekly puts us near 4353 weekly 50   Another thing of note for tomorrow is the MASSIVE put OI out there for Wednesday and Thursday monthly option expiration   Wednesday OI shows literally nothing for calls 16k at 437p   Thursday monthly has 15k 445c 55k 450c Otherwise 121k 440p 66k 435p 113k 430p  That is a massive amount of OI to the downside thats expected this week alone With this I would be very surprised not to see downside the rest of the week Perhaps we could see a relief rally tomorrow if CPI is good but I think Wednesday and Thursday is red with a goal of 430 The 430p monthly OI lines up with the TA I presented earlier too   With the last CPI being 75 expected at 79 but the consensus at 84 its not quite sue what we will see tomorrow But with this being the first CPI with war gas prices more covid etc I have a feeling we will see somewhere closer to about 85 to 9 I will be anxiously awaiting these numbers tomorrow   ampx200B  httpspreviewredditzvve2nvwqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampsd6cb5a86ef7f0a6606d8305928378625e0d55be0  Apple had a heck of a red day today too mostly related to the MASSIVE spike in the 10 year to 2774 today I mentioned too on Friday that we should see a test of the daily 100 ema since we had broken the daily 20 ema I did not however expect it to happen today However I was able to capitalize on some puts this morning   Apple now is in an interesting place Its clearly in the yellow downward channel and broken way out of its grey bull channel with the 10 year rising which will obviously wreck tech I think It is possible we could see a test of the Daily 200ema again near 158 However my caveat for this is we must get bad CPI A good CPI and a drop in the 10 year will send Apple soaring again Apple is a risky play here   Channel support tomorrow is 157 unlimited downside and resistance is 1666 which puts us back above the daily 100 ema and daily 50ema A close tomorrow for apple back above the daily 50ema of 1686 would be a bullish signal However if Apple loses 16554 daily 100ema we can expect further downside this week   I currently am not in any apple positions as my target for my puts was 165 and I closed them at 166 this morning Before the small intraday recovery I may reenter some longer 30dte puts depending on CPI and tomorrows finish   ampx200B  httpspreviewredditrvihq1qxqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps815d5abea3eb8fcfa988a512045e85dccccf6818  The blood for AMD just continues but even worse off today was NVDA taking a massive 52 hit which I believe it was down around 6 at one point intraday I actually entered some May 20th 85P on AMD this morning at open With AMD now breaking what used to be VERY strong support at 100 This 100 support dates back to July 29th 2021 and saw around 7 support bounces before it finally broke down With the 100 support broke I will be looking for a support bounce next near 7274 This is the next major support which from July 2020 until may 2021 it saw 6 support bounces here before it made its way to 100 support The next logical place for it to go is the 75 area which is why I locked in an 85p and did 39dte to give me some room to be right   I am also watching the 50ema now breaking below the 200 ema tomorrow most likely to form an official death cross This should give it some continued downside   ampx200B  httpspreviewreddith42lt6cyqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps656bccd6c7693ffbff25068cf8b80b2484feb77c  Ford attempted to have a very bullish day opening around 25 however after a massive daily 8ema rejection I entered a May 20th 15p on Ford I forsee after the daily 8ema rejection that Ford will continue its downward spiral that its currently in Next major support I see for Ford is around 128 and after that is 112  Ford also has the daily MACD sell signal and a lighter RSI at 38 which could show its nearing the bottom but Ford is very much so a give and take stock that I dont suspect the RSI to be an issue   Again took a 39dte put to give myself time to be correct but feel comfortable in this position   ampx200B  httpspreviewreddit26yjjyxyqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps7e647a1487ff5cbb7889db0f47334e17a6429f2b  QQQ saw yet another massive gap down at open today to stay impressively within its current red downward channel When I wrote the Friday TA I mentioned I was not sure it would stay within that channel but it did some how   Channel support is 322 unlimited downside and resistance is 342 for tomorrow   I also am seeing the daily 8ema now breaking below the 20 50 100 and 200 ema which is a bearish movement Almost with the 20ema now back below the 50ema I called out on SPY that 420430 was support I suspected I based that off the January 24th to January 28th price action QQQ is currently already at that support here at 340 that I called out That tells me TECH is most likely going to see further lows down near the March 15h lows if now lower I for see 39 to 330 as next supports for QQQ   ampx200B  httpspreviewredditqghek3jzqzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps50292337467bbf1fd1b3d55a377e4955d987401b  The VIX had yet again another MASSIVE day today From low to high covering 11 from its low of 2209 pre market to its high of 2342 during power hour Overall 239 was a major level for VIX to get over but once it did it really stepped out 248 is the most recent high for the VIX seen on April 6th before that March 25th is the last time we saw these kinds of levels but mind you that was on the downside not the upside   ampx200B  httpspreviewreddit1dkbfa40rzs81pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps718eb38d4ea8f47c4467f046cff1e33dd4fed944  When you zoom out on the daily for VIX you can tell we are beginning to wind back up and very well could see the high 20s to 30s depending on what happens with CPI   Overall I am carrying the AMD May 20th 85P and Ford May 20th 15P over night along with a SPY June 17th 375P YOLO I think we could very well see some more downside in this market and I while I think playing and guessing on CPI is like flipping a coin bet we see some downside the rest of the week Even if CPI is expected and we get a flat to small bull rally tomorrow it would not surprise me to see downside Wednesday and Thursday The market with the 10 year rising 30 year fixed mortgages rising again the inverted treasury yields inflation covid war gas etc etc etc recession etc etc etc talks ramping up is starting to panic again and I think despite people saying April is usually bullish I think we are going to start seeing some more downside over the next month or two   While some dont think its a great correlation you know what that i cant post the name of took a MASSIVE hit yesterday and today B broke its major support and is now below 40k and E broke a major support now below 3k again With those breaking major supports after their recent bull run recoveries I have a feeling thats the preample to the downside to come I will be very very interested to not only see CPI but see markets reaction to it tomorrow   10 challenge  Today was a fairly good day I had a great morning I managed to play an apple put for 19 a spy put for 20 and a call for 20 I had to carry a very heavy put bag that was down about 70 at open that spiked to 30 around the first big drop to 4415 With us holding there and not sure if we would see a massive reversal like Friday I took the L at 30 I also played a call and put for 25 then 10 during the sideways chop Followed by during power hour a two separated 10 puts Overall intraday trade wise I finished near my daily profit goal however factoring in my L put I carried over and realize the loss on I finished in the red To be today was a win because I managed risk and loss Had SPY reversed back to 445 or even not dropped to 4415 I would have had a fairly large L to carry Today was a win for me,negative
IBRX ImmunityBio has the vaccine for all covid variants and more,IBRX ImmunityBios Patrick SoonShiong is the way Here he explains to the FDA Peter Marks how his vaccine can cure all variants of covid httpsyoutubePHuxDfuWVoA  IBRX is not only curing covid but also HIV bladder cancer Phase 3 and much more in their pipeline httpsimmunitybiocompipeline  Hiring massively for manufacturing Submitting a BLA to the FDA this month Massively shorted ripe for a squeeze,positive
Chinese bond yields down more capital outflows from China to follow,httpswwwbloombergquintcomchinachinayieldpremiumoverusvanishesastreasuryyieldsspiketextChina20Yield20Premium20Over20US20Vanishes20as20Treasury20Yields20SpikeTania20ChenamptextBloomberg202D2D20China's20yield20advantageexodus20from20the20Asian20nationhttpswwwbloombergquintcomchinachinayieldpremiumoverusvanishesastreasuryyieldsspiketextChina20Yield20Premium20Over20US20Vanishes20as20Treasury20Yields20SpikeTania20ChenamptextBloomberg202D2D20China's20yield20advantageexodus20from20the20Asian20nation  Chinas yield advantage over Treasuries disappeared for the first time in more than a decade paving the way for more capital outflows to follow the recent record exodus from the Asian nation  Expect more volatility in chinese assets as western investors pull more money out of bonds etc  Don't forget CCP is trying to stimulate their economy which pushes yields down while USA is doing the opposite The outflows will continue,negative
Im enjoying the memes,,neutral
Your portfolio performance depends on how long youve been in coma,,neutral
$GLD a good bet at this level,There is a lot of uncertainty in the economic picture right now but one thing is a certain Inflation is going to continue which means higher commodity prices What is the ultimate hedge against inflation in the eyes of those that print the money   Gold       In fact Russia's two back stops for holding its currency up in the eyes of the world are oil and gold So what do they want more of gold What does India want more of gold What does China want more of besides labor camps gold     GLD represents a 11075 of an ounce of gold more or less There is a little variance in there  Technical Side      Gold 15 yearshttpspreviewredditza015sx0wws81pngwidth2479ampformatpngampautowebpamps450bff2c868794f40f38c4efb76c819e62853ca6   The left side of the chart in August 2020 shows 2 year highs that were tested around 2063 per ounce of gold and 195xx on GLD There is very little overhead resistance in the chart above 185 As you can see where I drew the saucer under the current month we are testing that level Right side of the chart  In fact we opened at almost 184 before pulling back to a higher lower where it is trading now  This is super bullish A close with a higher low intact will mean we are going to consolidate and then push BIG  Could be a couple days or a couple weeks but it is coming  Good luck to all you shiny loving Autists,positive
Russia bring us Dreaming Gas Fee,   Detail IM  US Natgas on Track for Highest Close Since 2008 on Rising Heating Demand  US natural gas futures jumped about 5 on Monday putting the contract on track for its highest close in 13 years on forecasts for higher heating demand than previously expected and as much higher global gas prices keep US liquefied natural gas LNG exports near record highs,positive
American Autist,,negative
And Ill do it again,,negative
GOV Issue some game license to slove people boring at home in Shanghai,Detail IM   Bilibili DouYu Rise in US as China Ends Video Game Freeze   Shares of Chinese videogame makers and livestreaming platforms rallied on Monday after China approved the first batch of new video game licenses since July Videogame streaming site Bilibili Inc closed 72 higher and its peer DouYu International Holdings Ltd rose 24 NetEase Inc pared advance to 21 as the mobile game giant was absent from a list of titles published by Chinas National Press and Publication Administration   Shanghai Reports 23342 Local Caovid Cases For April 11,positive
Inflation is done....kinda,The Fed controls the supply of money  Supply and demand determines value  Just like oil when a lot of supply goes into the market the value of oil goes down  Same thing with money    We do not have a demand issue  The base economy fuckin sucks  We have a supply issue where the Fed supplied so much money into the market they reduced the value of money and caused inflation  Well now it's the opposite  They will be taking out excess supply making the value of money go up to reverse the effects of inflation  BUT they will cause a recession that may already be here   The main component of an economy is consumer spending  Investment government spending and net exports are the others  Inflation is already affecting consumer spending which affects demand which eventually affects employment  The Fed will tame inflation by removing money supply and likely overtame inflation causing a recession  As debt service costs go up consumer demand will decrease and corporations will look to lay off people   We are starting a nasty cyclethat will essentially lead to little or no growth for the next 5 to 10 years   The Fed will again take too long to reverse the inflation taming  But the problem is that we don't actually have a demand driven inflation with a robust economyso what is the end result going to be  Deflation    How long for I got no fuckin idea  So we will start a deflationary process in the next 618 months and the only option will be 0 and printing money again   Expect that within 24 months the printer goes brr again  Yesno one has said this yet but the Fed may cause a deflationary spiral especially if they don't act properly   The problem is I have no idea what to do but I do know one person that does and consistently beats the market when times are tough for equitiesMr Buffet  Go with BRKB and close your eyes for the next 12 months,negative
How it feels to be part of one of the greatest bagholds of all time,,positive
Real estate market and the broader economy,I know there will be lots of just short the housing market bro responses but I am more interested in the opinions of the OG WSB autists if you guys are still around. Full disclosure I'm not involved in this market.   Papa powell lowered fed rates to almost 0 during the beer virus and printed paper so there were lots of easy money. This money first went into stonks and the market became too hot. Institutional investors had to find an alternative asset class and it seemed like they went into real estate.   As you have noticed the housing market went crazy over the last few years. However I also noticed this insane price hike is mostly for starter homes  aka the houses for entrylevel buyers getting their first home. These starters are singlefamily housesapartmentsduplexescondostownhouses you get the idea. In contrast my older wealthy friends' gt$1M mansion had seen maybe 300k increase while the starter houses my younger friends are looking to buy increased by x2 or x3.   Investors instead of home buyers purchased gt18 of all real estate sold in Q3 2021 alonehttpswww.redfin.comnewsinvestorhomepurchasesq32021. Firms like BlackRock has bought 66 apartment complexes in my city  not units entire complexes. I also looked at the prospectus of two REITs Vanguard VNQ and BlackRock USRT and residential is the secondhighest holding in these funds. The top holding is something called Specialized REIT  I wonder if apartment complexes or residential RE holding companies count as such. In both funds' documents they identified increasing interest rates as a significant risk factor. The point is this is just two REITs. There are lots more of these institutional or even individual investors of various sizes buying up starter homes.   ampx200B  With all that said I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on where this is going and how it will end. The following is my speculation and thinkingoutloud so probably not everything makes sense   It seems to me like these institutions are cornering the market by controlling the supply and causing the price to increase and then slowly selling these starter houses to any sucker who would be willing to pay the ridiculous price ... so are they holding a bunch of empty houses waiting for appreciation or are they also renting them out How are the occupy rates   Switching gears  what about the packaging and reselling of these mortgages Anything going on there I know they never stopped selling CDOshttpswww.printfriendly.compgmKya3x after 0809. Like the film ending scene of 'the Big Short' pointed out they are now making 'boutique synthetic CDOs'  and call them 'bespoke tranche opportunity' and there's a lot of activity in producthttpswww.reuters.comarticleidUSL5N22B5Q2.   As interest rates start to increase are institutions gonna fire sale and try to make their rival firms and new home buyers hold the bag I'm not sure of the exact cause or mechanism but if they needed to cooperate and hold it all together they wouldn't  just look at how they handled Bill Hwang's swaps. They all agreed to slowly unwind but right after the meeting when Credit Susse and UBS went to sleep Goldman and Morgan immediate offloaded and tanked those stonks and market in general. That's relatively small in comparison to the entire housing market.   Anyway I would love to hear your opinions thoughts and insights on this. Thanks for reading my rant.,negative
Chinese bond yields down more capital outflows from China to follow,httpswww.bloombergquint.comchinachinayieldpremiumoverusvanishesastreasuryyieldsspiketextChina20Yield20Premium20Over20U.S.20Vanishes20as20Treasury20Yields20SpikeTania20ChenamptextBloomberg202D2D20China's20yield20advantageexodus20from20the20Asian20nationhttpswww.bloombergquint.comchinachinayieldpremiumoverusvanishesastreasuryyieldsspiketextChina20Yield20Premium20Over20U.S.20Vanishes20as20Treasury20Yields20SpikeTania20ChenamptextBloomberg202D2D20China's20yield20advantageexodus20from20the20Asian20nation.  Chinas yield advantage over Treasuries disappeared for the first time in more than a decade paving the way for more capital outflows to follow the recent record exodus from the Asian nation.  Expect more volatility in chinese assets as western investors pull more money out of bonds etc.  Don't forget CCP is trying to stimulate their economy which pushes yields down while USA is doing the opposite. The outflows will continue.,positive
Double YOLO  IBRX and SKLZ,,positive
We've all got one timeline we'd change right,,negative
I just found out my trading app lets you scroll into the future,,neutral
$Tesla ALL IN  Going to hold till after the split ,,positive
$SAVEing my portfolio,Spirit airlines is a trash company thats in a ton of debt and has recently been offered a buyout of 33$ per share. The price is currently 26$ per share. Im still regretting the choices that lead me to buying HMHC calls but this one seems less like a scam because I didnt read about it from any of you degenerates.  Im not good at figuring out corporate buyouts and the like what are the odds that they take this 33share offer And if so how can I play this   And does saying this require a disclaimer Cause some people might try this as well.,negative
Someone should really stop that Kenneth c griffin guy,,negative
Russian Palladium Refiners banned by London's Platinum and Palladium Market and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange SBSW and other nonRussian Palladium companies stand to gain massively,On Friday the London Platinum and Palladium Market a major trading venue for Palladium and other platinum group metals banned two major Russian state owned Palladium refineries from having their Palladium and Platinum sold on the LPPM's London and Zurich exchangeshttpswww.marketwatch.comstorypalladiumandplatinumpricesjumpafterlondonmarketblocksrussianpreciousmetals11649521364. This was followed up by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also banning the same Russian state owned refiners todayhttpsfinance.yahoo.comnewspalladiumextendsgainssuspensionrussian234518049.html. Additionally the Japanese Exchange Group's Osaka exchange is now also reviewing whether or not to ban Russian Palladium and Platinum refiners. This has major implications in the Palladium market as Russia produces about 40 of the world's Palladium.httpswww.reddit.comrwallstreetbetscommentss72z1uhow_to_profit_off_a_russian_invasion_of_ukraine Russia's Palladium and Platinum exports were one of the very last major Russian exports left that were not subject to any major sanctions. As civilian deaths mount in the RussoUkrainian War more and more pressure will mount on Western governments and financial regulators to cut Russia further out of the world markets. Any removal of Russian palladium from the world market gives an excellent opportunity for nonRussian Palladium producers to profit. Aside from Russia major palladium mines are located in South Africa the United States and Canada. Palladium is used heavily in both the car industry and electronics industry being used in both catalytic converters and integrated circuits. If major automakers and chip makers are no longer allowed to buy Russian Palladium they will be all forced to compete for Palladium produced by companies like Sibanye Stillwater SBSW which controls nearly all of American Palladium mining production and has major mines in South Africa and Impala Platinum Holdings JSE IMP which has major Canadian and South African mines.    I am long 400 shares of SBSW.httpswww.reddit.comuserScipioAtTheGatecommentsu18vdvsbsw_wsb_proof,negative
41122 SPY AMD QQQ F Apple VIX Daily TA,    The day before CPI the bulls were fast asleep snoozing the day away while the bears frolicked. After waiting over a month I ALMOST got my 2 red day. If you remember my TA from Friday I was pretty certain today would play out pretty much exactly how it did today. The key on Friday for me was the resistance at the daily 8ema and wicking below the 20 50 and 100emas. We finally got the close below them today. While im not a huge fan of overnight plays on SPY Friday was one of those days.   The bears came out in full action without any signs they were going to stop today. To color me impressed would be an understatement. Today is one of the first days in months that I can remember SPY not closing a single candle inverse of the trend on the 15min chart. What I mean today is despite only 4 candle bodies above the 15 min 8ema there was not a single candle closed above the 15min 8ema which is a VERY strong trend. It is a rare day in SPY world that the trend doesnt have at least one to three candles inverse of the trend on the 8ema above for bearish and below for bullish.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.it1hpw0uyrqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps89e988c2486c9a35886e64c0572dda7db4c7f52f  We actually established yet another downward channel today that I dont suspect to really matter much over night as most intraday channels will end up being negated due to time lapse.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itnzmwaslsqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps460f3ed4daf222a62703d594bc51c6a74e98085e  ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itli7lzt7tqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps4347b8f4c091377d1ce4fba1560a3adac832fe92  We are clearly within the triple red channel still and as I mentioned this morning we broke down through the top tiers support and now are trading within the middle tier. We also established a purple downward resistance line that was started Friday morning. I am not sure if that will hold over night either though due to time lapse.   But on the red triple channel the middle tier support puts us near 436 and resistance is near 441 at open tomorrow. I dont really forsee unless CPI truly is like 9.5 or 10 that we do it but if we break through the middle tier support next support is near 430 to 431.  ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itgk5l6gstqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampsb1186f1a49dfdb4c8482bfe6b8db71a3e6c0a15d  The daily chart is something of beauty to me. As you can see we clearly broke the RED upward bull channel and there is no change to salvage that nor readjust it to even convince me we are still in that. Surprisingly we actually broke support of the bearish grey channel too. However I went ahead and adjusted that to look as so now.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.it14m0bnhuqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampscb628bb79afa7a42f5d89e96ee5161666ca6c136  The daily chart tells nothing but a very bearish omen for SPY right now. Today we not only opened below the 20 50 and 100 ema on the daily 445.21 446.55 and 446.63 but we also wicked below the daily 200 ema AND closed below it. I would be very surprised again unless CPI is some miracle WAY better than expected for us to not retest the 420 to 430 support area at this rate. The MACD is still confirmed bearish and RSI at 45 has plenty of room for downside.   Channel support is 437 and resistance is 451 unlimited upside BUT being that we actually broke this channel today I am not convinced that 437 is very accurate. Price action wise I look at 430 as the next major support for SPY. Of course I dont suspect outside of a terrible CPI that we will see that tomorrow.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itb7xoaqpvqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps7116303960c6b14d65486a7a6055fe9d2f6ebe3b  Weekly Spy chart is very busy as we continue to search for the channel we are within. However we too opened and closed a full candle completely below the weekly 20 and 8ema 443.96 445.9. The next support for the weekly puts us near 435.3 weekly 50.   Another thing of note for tomorrow is the MASSIVE put OI out there for Wednesday and Thursday monthly option expiration.   Wednesday OI shows literally nothing for calls. 16k at 437p.   Thursday monthly has 15k 445c 55k 450c. Otherwise 121k 440p 66k 435p 113k 430p.  That is a massive amount of OI to the downside thats expected this week alone. With this I would be very surprised not to see downside the rest of the week. Perhaps we could see a relief rally tomorrow if CPI is good but I think Wednesday and Thursday is red with a goal of 430. The 430p monthly OI lines up with the TA I presented earlier too.   With the last CPI being 7.5 expected at 7.9 but the consensus at 8.4 its not quite sue what we will see tomorrow. But with this being the first CPI with war gas prices more covid etc. I have a feeling we will see somewhere closer to about 8.5 to 9. I will be anxiously awaiting these numbers tomorrow.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itzvve2nvwqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpampsd6cb5a86ef7f0a6606d8305928378625e0d55be0  Apple had a heck of a red day today too mostly related to the MASSIVE spike in the 10 year to 2.774 today. I mentioned too on Friday that we should see a test of the daily 100 ema since we had broken the daily 20 ema. I did not however expect it to happen today. However I was able to capitalize on some puts this morning.   Apple now is in an interesting place. Its clearly in the yellow downward channel and broken way out of its grey bull channel with the 10 year rising which will obviously wreck tech. I think It is possible we could see a test of the Daily 200ema again near 158. However my caveat for this is we must get bad CPI. A good CPI and a drop in the 10 year will send Apple soaring again. Apple is a risky play here.   Channel support tomorrow is 157 unlimited downside and resistance is 166.6 which puts us back above the daily 100 ema and daily 50ema. A close tomorrow for apple back above the daily 50ema of 168.6 would be a bullish signal. However if Apple loses 165.54 daily 100ema we can expect further downside this week.   I currently am not in any apple positions as my target for my puts was 165 and I closed them at 166 this morning. Before the small intraday recovery. I may reenter some longer 30dte puts depending on CPI and tomorrows finish.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itrvihq1qxqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps815d5abea3eb8fcfa988a512045e85dccccf6818  The blood for AMD just continues but even worse off today was NVDA taking a massive 5.2 hit which I believe it was down around 6 at one point intraday. I actually entered some May 20th 85P on AMD this morning at open. With AMD now breaking what used to be VERY strong support at 100. This 100 support dates back to July 29th 2021 and saw around 7 support bounces before it finally broke down. With the 100 support broke I will be looking for a support bounce next near 7274. This is the next major support which from July 2020 until may 2021 it saw 6 support bounces here before it made its way to 100 support. The next logical place for it to go is the 75 area which is why I locked in an 85p and did 39dte to give me some room to be right.   I am also watching the 50ema now breaking below the 200 ema tomorrow most likely to form an official death cross. This should give it some continued downside.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.ith42lt6cyqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps656bccd6c7693ffbff25068cf8b80b2484feb77c  Ford attempted to have a very bullish day opening around 2.5 however after a massive daily 8ema rejection I entered a May 20th 15p on Ford. I forsee after the daily 8ema rejection that Ford will continue its downward spiral that its currently in. Next major support I see for Ford is around 12.8 and after that is 11.2.  Ford also has the daily MACD sell signal and a lighter RSI at 38 which could show its nearing the bottom but Ford is very much so a give and take stock that I dont suspect the RSI to be an issue.   Again took a 39dte put to give myself time to be correct but feel comfortable in this position.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.it26yjjyxyqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps7e647a1487ff5cbb7889db0f47334e17a6429f2b  QQQ saw yet another massive gap down at open today to stay impressively within its current red downward channel. When I wrote the Friday TA I mentioned I was not sure it would stay within that channel but it did some how.   Channel support is 322 unlimited downside and resistance is 342 for tomorrow.   I also am seeing the daily 8ema now breaking below the 20 50 100 and 200 ema which is a bearish movement. Almost with the 20ema now back below the 50ema. I called out on SPY that 420430 was support I suspected. I based that off the January 24th to January 28th price action. QQQ is currently already at that support here at 340 that I called out. That tells me TECH is most likely going to see further lows down near the March 15h lows if now lower. I for see 39 to 330 as next supports for QQQ.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.itqghek3jzqzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps50292337467bbf1fd1b3d55a377e4955d987401b  The VIX had yet again another MASSIVE day today. From low to high covering 11 from its low of 22.09 pre market to its high of 23.42 during power hour. Overall 23.9 was a major level for VIX to get over but once it did it really stepped out. 24.8 is the most recent high for the VIX seen on April 6th before that March 25th is the last time we saw these kinds of levels but mind you that was on the downside not the upside.   ampx200B  httpspreview.redd.it1dkbfa40rzs81.pngwidth975ampformatpngampautowebpamps718eb38d4ea8f47c4467f046cff1e33dd4fed944  When you zoom out on the daily for VIX you can tell we are beginning to wind back up and very well could see the high 20s to 30s depending on what happens with CPI.   Overall I am carrying the AMD May 20th 85P and Ford May 20th 15P over night along with a SPY June 17th 375P YOLO. I think we could very well see some more downside in this market and I while I think playing and guessing on CPI is like flipping a coin bet we see some downside the rest of the week. Even if CPI is expected and we get a flat to small bull rally tomorrow it would not surprise me to see downside Wednesday and Thursday. The market with the 10 year rising 30 year fixed mortgages rising again the inverted treasury yields inflation covid war gas etc. etc. etc. recession etc. etc. etc. talks ramping up is starting to panic again and I think despite people saying April is usually bullish I think we are going to start seeing some more downside over the next month or two.   While some dont think its a great correlation you know what that i cant post the name of... took a MASSIVE hit yesterday and today. B broke its major support and is now below 40k and E broke a major support now below 3k again. With those breaking major supports after their recent bull run recoveries I have a feeling thats the preample to the downside to come. I will be very very interested to not only see CPI but see markets reaction to it tomorrow.   10 challenge  Today was a fairly good day. I had a great morning I managed to play an apple put for 19 a spy put for 20 and a call for 20. I had to carry a very heavy put bag that was down about 70 at open that spiked to 30 around the first big drop to 441.5. With us holding there and not sure if we would see a massive reversal like Friday I took the L at 30. I also played a call and put for 25 then 10 during the sideways chop. Followed by during power hour a two separated 10 puts. Overall intraday trade wise I finished near my daily profit goal however factoring in my L put I carried over and realize the loss on I finished in the red. To be today was a win because I managed risk and loss. Had SPY reversed back to 445 or even not dropped to 441.5 I would have had a fairly large L to carry. Today was a win for me.,positive
Paying down debt is for suckers,,neutral
Gapped up and gapped down stocks  good strategy potential, Does anyone here currently use after market gap analysis to identify stock likely to shift dramatically on market next day open  Here's the basics   Gapping occurs when the price of a stock or another asset opens above or below the previous day's close with no trading activity in between. A gap is the area discontinuity in a security's price chart. Gaps may materialize when headlines cause market fundamentals to change rapidly during hours when markets are typically closed for instance the result of an earnings call afterhours.  Gapping may also refer to the difference or spread in rates at which banks borrow and lend. The dynamic gap measures how assets money held and liabilities money loaned change over time.  Here's a good example from last week  HP Inc NYSE HPQ stock price gapped up 18.6 after Warren Buffett revealed that Berkshire Hathaway had acquired 121 million shares�.  This lead to this early jump in price  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps99ec8ea9b665f008f2a57cbfc85a9183636d0cec     You can use sites such as barchart.com to run gap up and gap down stock analysis to identify potential targets for profits out of the gates on markets open.  More often that not a gapup will encourage a 'buy' and gapdown will encourage a 'sell'.  However you need to gauge the momentum behind the stock and trend to decide what is the appropriate strategy to deploy however as a simple start point gap circumstances can roughly be categorised as such  1. A breakaway gap Sell short and place a stop a few ticks above the gaps upper rim. 2. An exhaustion gap  prices pull back into it the next day The downtrend is over Cover shorts immediately. 3. Another exhaustion gap marked by a lack of new highs after the gap Several days of churning offer good shorting opportunities with a stop above the high. 4. A continuation gap in a downtrend Go short with a stop a few ticks above the gaps upper rim. Prices hit that stop a few days later  no method is failsafe. 5. An exhaustion gap closed two days after it opened Cover shorts immediately. 6. A common gap in the midst of a congestion area closed the next day No action recommended. 7. A breakaway gap Go long and place a protective stop a few ticks below the gaps lower rim. 8. A continuation gap Add to longs and place a protective stop a few ticks below the gaps lower rim. The gap at the right edge of the chart could be either a continuation or an exhaustion gap. Relatively quiet volume suggests continuation. If you buy place a protective stop a few ticks below the lower rim of this gap.  In the HP example above this was a breakaway gap with sufficient indicator and fundamental analysis to tell you this was a 'BUY'.  In any case a good solid strategy to nail down and add to the arsenal.,neutral
This guy wont take delivery of his egg future contracts. What to do shitpost,So I've done some work for the poultry industry in the past.  Because of the bird flu scare they wanted to unload a ton of eggs quickly at cut rate costs.  They reached out to me because they know I am on WSB and do some day trading.  I saw this opportunity and agreed to sell some futures contracts.  I ended up selling the agreed upon allotment of DCE JD contracts. Fresh Hen Egg Futures.  Turns out I probably could have sold those contracts for way more than I did but we farmers and I wanted to make sure the eggs would move before they went bad.  I only took a 5 cut and the rest goes to the farmers so every contract sold did ok.  If we held out a little longer we could've cleared at least another 20 or more.  Needless to say the farmers have had to massacre their chicken stocks because of the bird flu.  So this one guy that we sold some contracts to wanted more.  Despite being over capacity the farmers wanted to sell more to make up for the fact they were making less per egg.  The farmers coop accepted his contract offers and we'd make more eggs.  This meant all of us myself the farmers and their kids etc. would have to put in the OT to make sure we filled this order.       Now the buyer of the contracts is saying he was messed up when he bought the contracts and cant take physical delivery of the final 10 contracts because of the size of his storage location.  A contract is 5 metric TONS of eggs.  A tonne of eggs is anywhere between 1086 and 1736 dozens of eggs.  In total we are talking about over 1 million eggs.  How do you buy a contract and not know that you do not have appropriate storage let alone 10 contracts  Also for reference a chicken will lay one egg per day if youre lucky.  To fill this over sized order we were sitting there jacking off roosters for a week straight to get all of the chicken jizz and then had to finger every hen to knock them up to get the eggs made.  If you turn on a black light in my place you'd go blind and I have a few roosters following me around and sending me chocolates and flowers.     What should I do  I need this guy to take the damn eggs.,negative
NOK to the moon,I had a dream last night that I was explaining my online trading account to my brother. Everything was in the red so it was pretty realistic and I started scrolling down my portfollio showing him some of the stocks I own.  I then got to NOK. And as we looked at it it went up to $20. I said that's unusual for a stock to go up that much in just a short time and no sooner had the words left my mouth did it go to $40. And then I got interested and it went to $80. So I was buying like a fucking tramp on chips and it went all the way to $254. Stayed around the $250 mark for a couple of minutes and then went back down to about $116 before eventually going all the way back to the start I obviously did not sell in time.  Anyway. I'm not sure of the exact time this took place so I've gone and bought shares off the back of it  937  5.33  Admittedly this isn't the best DD you'll ever read. Equally though it's not the worst.  If you need to tell me this is not financial advice then God help you.,positive
SPY week 15,The Spy Friday rose as a phenomenal rate and I think it was more than just volume.  Before trading hours we saw the SPY dropping at a remarkable rate. Is this a supply chain issue with China I saw a recent spike in the spread of Covid over the weekend with Chinas hardcore Covid policies Im sure it will affect the supply chain like it did mid March.  How does everyone feel about the week on SPY Is it a PUT or Call week  Currently the SPY is 442.07,positive
Yolo'd my first ever $8k on an FHA 3.5 mortgage 2 years ago and now have over $100k 'equity'. Loving this K shaped recovery lol. Idk if this is allowed,,positive
WSB Bulls today,,positive
Incoming bear market Sure DD x Cramer,,negative
Elons next tweet,,neutral
What true bagholding is actually like,,positive
Ryan Cohen fighting for GameStop in the metaverse,,positive
Bought SNDL at .66 how screwed am I,,negative
$SPY  Predictions for the week of 411,Last week I said that SPY was going to slope down with nothing crazy that happened except my 5 day forecast got inversed.  The days that I thought would be bearish were actually bullish.    I was thinking about this and noticed how there is hundreds of ways the week could play out  that would result in SPY going down.    I am still going to continue the 5 Day Outlook because it is something funny to do just take it with a grain of salt because it is seriously impossible to predict every single day before the futures market even opens... I write these Saturday morning.    ampx200B  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps27e05d57d4deb60529bae70e73e6937f820f3fa2  The main levels have been the same for about a month now  Support 432  Resistance 452  The RSI is showing the K approaching an oversold reading there will at least be a short term relief in the selling pressure overall  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps590c166936580732ddbcfe55540e897b0827817c  I would classify the bollinger band with as a somewhat mean reverting indicator to get a sense of the overall volatility.  Since the bollinger bands have a relative wide span we can assume that we will likely be entering a phase of lower volatility.    ampx200B  CPI Data Release Dateformatpngampautowebpamps5317e8515c102614e5d3e4562d01e737d38e4a72  Everyone is going to be watching the CPI data when it is released on Tuesday.  Remember that Ukraine was invaded February 24th so all of the effects on the global markets were felt last month in March.    All retail investors will be watching and all of Wall Street will be watching.  This is not going to be pretty...  FAO Food Price Indexformatpngampautowebpampse34b8ef7f7ab646a82ab92ddeb390904aae8bf20  Food prices have gotten to absurd levels this shows how bad inflation has affected everyone.  ampx200B  10 Year Government Bond Yieldsformatpngampautowebpampsf55675378beeee4b52b194fdd5a0e0b08e6c5d43  I saw this chart floating around that shows a historical trend line of the major economic recessions in the United States and how they correlate to to the 10Y yield.     30 Year Bond Yield Compared to SPXformatpngampautowebpampsf3c71b58593de6c7c8bab287a6604785595a46d2  I was looking around and can conclude that the 30 Year bond Yields have more variation but are a better indicator for timing the end of an economic cycle.  There is nothing to be done now I am just waiting.  I still have a lot of positions open when this crash starts I will start to liquidate everything... believe me it will be very noticeable when it starts.   ampx200B  Federal Reserve FOMC statementformatpngampautowebpamps12b1e18659efc463475d55f038f17d0baf6db894  Bullard is concerned for the economy and wants at least a 50 to 75bp rate hike.  I actually found this kind of interesting because he is one of the least corrupt people in office.  He has a net worth around 5 million which is surprisingly low for having inside information.  He also has never worked with big banks and he also assumed office at the top of the 2008 financial bubble when everyone else was leaving their positions.  He definitely knows what is going on and what needs to be done to save the economy.  The federal reserve will eventually have to become more aggressive in rate hikes.  ampx200B  Crude Oil CFDsformatpngampautowebpampsd943fa66e23d9a16dc6745f34c4e1246e88f48dd  Predictions  Tuesday is going to be an extremely important day.  I have seen some analysts saying that inflation could spike to 10.  Oil rose 35 in March reaching a high over $130 per barrel.  I am expecting inflation to be at least 8.5 which is going to shock the markets.    Another factor is that we have never experienced a market crash with as many high frequency trading algorithms that we have now.  The covid crash was not a complete recession but we saw the insane movements intraday on all the indices.  I am fearing that there could be some massive panic selloff which is accelerated by high frequency algorithms in the near term.  The chances of this happening on Tuesday are low but are increasing as each day passes.    The amount of people who are bullish on the market is also decreasing every single day even people on WSB are starting to fear a recession and feel it will be a more likely outcome.  I hate to be that person but over the last year with unemployment decreasing spending increasing and now inflation accelerating... this is exactly like the roaring 20s before the great recession.  No need to speculate that far ahead this is only a one week prediction.  Also I doubt the Federal Reserve would let the stock market crash over 80 without interfering.  At most there will be a 50 bear market similar to 2008.  The stock market will still be sloping down this week except the inflation data will cause some panic sell then it should recover in the following days.    Not professional financial advice do not solely make your trades based on my opinions I encourage everyone to research more   TLDR  formatpngampautowebpamps39172bb2a032402fe4c78d52443440fff4a1a227  I will respond to every comment,neutral
Calling all dividend investors  Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields A good chunk of them are whats called a yield trap Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut,Calling all dividend investors   Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields   A good chunk of them are what's called a yield trap  Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut.  Few people realize this until the dividend gets cut and it's too late.  I look for businesses that will continue to pay dividends raise those dividends higher than inflation and they have growth divers that will increase their share price.  Stay away from high dividend yields.   gt Find out why the company has such a high dividend yield before considering it.   gt Yields that appear unrealistically high often end up being suspended or cut leaving investors who bought the stock just for the dividend disappointed.,negative
Robin Hood Marks WBD as a Russian Company.,,negative
Russia bring us Dreaming Gas Fee,   Detail IM  U.S. Natgas on Track for Highest Close Since 2008 on Rising Heating Demand  U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5 on Monday putting the contract on track for its highest close in 13 years on forecasts for higher heating demand than previously expected and as much higher global gas prices keep U.S. liquefied natural gas LNG exports near record highs.,negative
Story of my trading life,,negative
Stock Market Outlook SampampP 500 to Fall 11 As Inflation Sparks Recession,,negative
All in on MARA baby. I heard Wendys was hiring,,positive
Thanks GME $73k Gain,,positive
Tomorrow i am either a rich man or a poor man,,neutral
It seems like New Omicron Covid SubVariants Coming,Detail IM  WHO Says It is Analysing Two New Omicron Covid SubVariants  The World Health Organization said on Monday it is tracking a few dozen cases of two new subvariants of the highly transmissible Omicron strain of the coronavirus to assess whether they are more infectious or dangerous.,negative
DKNG DraftKings Compared to other Growth Stocks,Highlighting some key metrics here that would be useful to consider as we go into a bearish market  We want to see a company with a high cash burn can last months on its current cash balance and low debt so we know they won't have to raise funds in the near future to survive. DKNG stands out among others.  $DKNG $dash $ZM $rblx $Tdoc $Roku $Hood $Pton $sklz $Sofi $open $plbyformatpngampautowebpampsfebe9e90972d9d6ddccfb5a9826d7de015723428  First Column  Market Cap  Monetary value of all outstanding shares stated in the pricing currency. Capitalization is a measure of corporate size.  Second Column  Cash and Cash Equivalents  Cash amp Near Cash Items  Cash in vaults and deposits in banks.  Includes ST investments with maturities of less than 90 days.  May include marketable securities and shortterm investments with maturities of more than 90 days if not disclosed separately.  Excludes restricted cash Restricted cash is included in Other Current Assets.  Third Column  Cash Burn  A rough estimate of how many months a company can operate using the existing cash and near cash resources without requiring additional financing. A low number of months to burnout does not necessarily indicate that the firm will run out of cash but that if operations do not improve the company will need to seek additional financing. Calculated as  Cash amp Cash Equivalents  Trailing 12 Month Free Cash Flow x 12  Fourth Column  Total Debt to Total Assets  Leverage ratio in percentage that defines the total amount of debt relative to assets. This enables comparisons of leverage to be made across different companies. Calculated as  Total Debt 100  Total Assets  Fifth Column  Recommendation Consensus  Provides the analysts' opinions on the security. The Rating is calculated by converting each of the analysts' current recommendations into a number from 15 and taking the average  Sixth Column  Price to Sales Ratio  The price to sales ratio is the ratio of a stock's last price divided by sales per share.  Average shares outstanding is used when calculating sales per share.  Sales per share is calculated on a trailing 12 month basis where available.  Trailing values are calculated by adding the most recent four quarters.,positive
Decent Week for Tech Puts,,positive
J. Powell just pulled down his pants and is currently prepping to drop a massive sht in the Punch Bowl. White House,Inflation has grown so much The WH is releasing statements talking up how bad the CPI report will be before its even released   What does that mean J Powell is going to be given the ultimate green light to just absolutely shit all over the punch bowl and crash the Post 2020 QE Infinity Rally   Bulls be warned their portfolio losses so far is not gonna be comparable to when The New Fed is done   If I were a betting man I know ironic I would expect The FED to call an emergency meeting sometime in the notsodistant future and agree to raise interest rate to Nuclear Fallout levels   PS I hope all the Inflation Doom Dollar End is Nigh crowd is happy as they kept on calling for The Ghost of Volcker and they are about to get their wish,negative
Weed stocks,Thoughts on American Weed Stocks. Im holding TerrAscend since the Gage acquisition. It was a great opportunity to get TerrAscend at a discount. Opinions on companies and Predictions on when legalization. Im just hoping sooner than later.,positive
What I lack in profit I make up in volume,,neutral
If I were to make Money Printer goes BRRR the game what features would you like to see,,positive
Let get fucked. This is not how imagined 2022. I feel like shutting down the operation and just disappear for a year.,,negative
GOGO is Going to GOGO to the Moon  SampP SmallCap 600 Index Inclusion Will Squeeze the Near 40 Float Shorted Stock,We're Going to GOGO to the Moon  GOGO which is based in Chicago is an inflight internet company that provides broadband connectivity services for the business aviation market.  GOGO is currently working on launching Gogo5G which will deliver 25 Mbps on average with peak speeds in the 7580 Mbps range.  The Why  GOGO is one of the highest shorted stocks with 37.15 of the float sold short. Now you may wonder why this is relevant well it's because GOGO is looking to break through the $20 resistance where it can move up without much technical resistance and it has all the right factors going for it.  The How  GOGO is already up 87 this year and the shorts have been suffering heavily. This is the perfect moment for their positions to collapse. As the shorts will already be looking to derisk in the current market environment it gives the stock an even bigger momentum push.  Speaking about the market GOGO has been going up against it and is green during red days. It's showing what we like to call regard strength.  The Fundamental amp Technical  1. It was recently added to the SampP SmallCap 600 Index so the passive investors are all buying. This is supported by the fact that volume has exploded since. 2. Traders are buying in due to momentum and the high short percentage. Supported by the chart and volume as well. 3. It's currently testing levels not seen since 2015.  The Hypothesis  In my opinion $40 is easily achievable in the short term under the current dynamics and the fundamentalstechnicals. The chart looks like it is ready for a parabolic move.  The Position  GOGO 5202022 $20.00 CALL. Still cheap due to low IV and gives me a month for the breakout to occur. Any positive market day could cause it. it's also pumping today during a fear day which is a great sign.  TLDR GOGO recently added to SampP SmallCap 600 Index momentum is going to cause covering by the high short percentage.  Ape TLDR GOGO TO THE MOON,positive
Robin Hood Marks WBD as a Russian Company.,,negative
It does make me want to buy more TBH. ,,positive
 I SPY TWTR TSLA TA  Monday April 11 2022  Scalpers Delight,ampx200B      bearish measured move targets       bullish measured move targets    look for   SPY   Lose 446.67  446.01 and   444.86  443.51   440.66  437.31 needs to lose 443  Break 447.82 and   449.26  450.59   453.86  457.17 needs to break 450.59  15 min.formatpngampautowebpampse20f6b75bc01e50f932398e9491fe9510276a7f5   TWTR    44.52  43.17 needs to lose 45.81  Break 46.66 and  47.28  Break 47.28 and  47.87  48.54   49.92  51.30 needs to break 48.54  15 min.formatpngampautowebpampscca05fc975c8ff85ddc00fabc3c0a9a4f6545f8c   TSLA    1002.58  977.44 needs to break 1027.70  1021.54  Break 1043.46 and  1056.73  1065.17  1078.91    1104.09  1129.54 needs to break 1078.91  15 min.formatpngampautowebpamps1b63f115165143f9d49a8327da9d1a4d55c0da46  Thanks for reading  NightMan,neutral
Making Bank Using Leverage and Options I promise its not as bad as it sounds, If You Had To Point Out The Flaws Of The Stock Market Relative To Other Asset Classes What Would They Be  Theres a long list of them high volatility sequence of return risk low cashflow high efficiency and liquidity this could be a pro or con depending on how you look at it lack of significant leverage etc.  Out of all those things however were gonna focus on two of them. The lack of cashflow and the lack of leverage. Both of these things are abundant in real estate in particular. A good rental multifamily can be expected to have a cap rate of 712 with a cash on cash return ideally around 15 or higher. This is because 1 real estate does not rely upon appreciation solely it relies upon the income it generates from the renters and 2 investment properties typically only need a 20 down payment in order to purchase.  Thats a 51 leverage ratio which would be impossible to achieve safely in the stock market.  Now it used to be that stocks had lower appreciation and higher dividend yields however that has not been the case for 70 years at least.  You can take a look at this dividend yield chart of the SampP 500 for reference.  formatpngampautowebpampsc4d2968767da41b9c7914a3b2fb641edbc6d10de   Luckily We Can Turn The Stock Market Back Into An Income Machine Using Options  This is the whole premise of the thetagang position. We replace our stock appreciation with premiums received from selling options as a sort of dividend yield.  So we turn to selling puts and calls on SPX or SPY or whatever index you prefer. Thats great but if we compare it back to real estate were still missing the essential component of leverage.  Thats where leveraged ETFs come in.  The pros and cons of LEFTs have been hotly debated but what settled it for me personally was this post by hedgefundie and this article about volatility decay If you don't want to read through all of that I've condensed down the important stuff regarding volatility decay and proper diversification in this postswamputm_campaignpostamputm_mediumweb. But basically assuming it works perhaps we can change it from capital appreciation to income generation using options.  Surely that should work right  Well it should if we do it correctly to avoid assignment as much as possible.  Leveraged ETFs suffer from something called volatility decay basically just describing the idea that a when a loss is incurred a greater gain needs to be made to square ourselves back to zero. With leverage we magnify our risk to this factor.  So because we have more vulnerability to downside lets protect ourselves using a bit of probability.   Using Standard Deviation To Calculate Probabilities  Lets just assume for the moment that all market movements are as good as being random. Yes they are based on data but if we dont have access to said data the movements may as well be random.  Under this assumption we can then also assume that there are probabilities to which direction a stock is going to move. There should be roughly a 50 chance that the stock will go up or down at any given moment.  On top of that we could also assume that larger movements are less likely than smaller movements mainly due to the fact that it takes much larger sudden inflows and outflows of cash to make a stock behave that way. Now some stocks have a relatively higher ability to make a significant move in either direction but even these stocks still have boundaries where they will be unlikely to move.  A good example of this how wild Teslas swings are relative to General Electric. Tesla has a higher relative swing compared to General Electric but even Tesla is unlikely to swing to $30 or $5000 in the next year.  Now these observations we just made are the fundamental ideas behind the concept of standard deviation.  Standard deviation essentially says that within a given time frame usually a year a stock has a certain probability of being within certain price ranges based on its volatility its ability to make wild swings like Tesla.  formatpngampautowebpampsad20b147792f9eb6d33617c18bd6d4722b526bc9  As you can see at the bottom of the chart we see that at each increasing or decreasing standard deviation 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 etc there is less of a probability that our data or in this case the stock price will fall into this range given a normal distribution.  If you add up all the percentages between 1 and 1 we get a 68.2 chance that our stock price will fall in this range. This is called the first standard deviation. If we expand out the 2 and 2 then we get a 95.4 chance that our stock price will fall within the range. That is called the second standard deviation. If we go out to the 3 on each side we get a 98.8 chance that the stock price will fall within the range. With each standard deviation the chance that a stock price will fall within the range gets higher albeit at a much slower rate.   So What Does This Have To Do With Selling Options  Using these standard deviations we can get probabilities that a stock will fall within a certain range. If we use something called Implied Volatility we can figure out what the market thinks that one standard deviation is. Then using that we can predict what probability our option has of expiring in the money which is what we dont want.  To find implied volatility we can go to a website like volafy.net and get the implied volatility percentage. In the case of TQQQ QQQ leveraged 3x the implied volatility is 80 at this time of writing.  Using this percentage we can plug it into a handy formula to calculate the standard deviation for any specific option.  The formula looks like this  sqrtoption days until expiration365  implied volatility  current stock price  In written terms basically we divide the days until expiration by 365 then take the square root of that and multiply it by the implied volatility percentage and the current stock price.  That gives us the amount in dollars of the first standard deviation. If you take that amount and add it AND subtract it from the current price it will give you the range the stock will fall within 68 of the time.  Right now we are interested in selling puts on TQQQ without getting exercised so well sell at one standard deviation out of the money. At the current price of TQQQ $51.84 the first standard deviation out of the money would be $38.11 which is also 51.84  13.73.  If we go back up to our standard deviation chart we can see that on the left side of the chart the side that represents our OTM options we can add up all the percentages before the 1st standard deviation mark. This comes out to be a 15.9 that our OTM option will become ITM by expiration you might have noticed that this percentage closely correlates with the delta of the option which is a good way to gauge it as well. If we are selling monthly options this comes out to be getting assigned once out of every six months on average. To me those seem like pretty good odds.  So lets go down to the $38 strike put on TQQQ which is trading $128 per contract right now. Thats a 3.37 ROI in 40 days or 30.75 annually.  If we assume assignment three times a year that wipes out any premiums made for that given month we are still sitting on a 20.64 CAGR.   But Wait Isnt This Riskier Than Selling Puts On Regular Old QQQ  This is the beauty of it you have the same risk of getting assigned on TQQQ as you do with QQQ if you stay at the same standard deviation but still receive 3x the premium. This is because with TQQQ higher volatility we sell further OTM than we would with regular QQQ but still receive the high premiums due to it being a leveraged product.  If you do happen to get assigned no worries Personally I would recommend that you simply just sell out of the position at the current price and open a new put for the next month. The reason why I say this as opposed to selling a call is that calls do not have the same volatility risk premium that puts do and therefore do not sell for as much. If you want to read more there is this paperreprep1amptypepdf which discusses the outperformance of a put writing only strategy that outperforms during bearflat markets. If you open a new put you are simply taking the loss for that month with the intention that the high win rate probability of this trading strategy will make you square again. I DO NOT RECOMMEND DOING THIS STRATEGY ON ANYTHING BESIDES INDEXES if you do chances are that eventually that stock will get wiped out and never recover I'm looking at you TLRY. Indexes on the other hand do recover you don't need to look any further than this chart to prove it.  SampP 500 Returnsformatpngampautowebpampscdf97a8cbe87ba97b5d67e1795a2f51b92feb71b  TLDR Sell puts on TQQQ way OTM instead of buying them. Leverage make put selling go BRRR.,positive
Thanks TDA for a fun time,,positive
TPX Puts  Do I Yolo,I am a retailer of TempurSealy and Q1  Q2 have been awful. Not only are we seeing less customers but we are waiting months for product. Based on the supply issues Im seeing I want to throw some Puts on TPX to expire after earnings. Whats the best way to do that and protect myself just in case my store is the outlier,positive
This guy wont take delivery of his egg future contracts. What to do shitpost,So I've done some work for the poultry industry in the past.  Because of the bird flu scare they wanted to unload a ton of eggs quickly at cut rate costs.  They reached out to me because they know I am on WSB and do some day trading.  I saw this opportunity and agreed to sell some futures contracts.  I ended up selling the agreed upon allotment of DCE JD contracts. Fresh Hen Egg Futures.  Turns out I probably could have sold those contracts for way more than I did but we farmers and I wanted to make sure the eggs would move before they went bad.  I only took a 5 cut and the rest goes to the farmers so every contract sold did ok.  If we held out a little longer we could've cleared at least another 20 or more.  Needless to say the farmers have had to massacre their chicken stocks because of the bird flu.  So this one guy that we sold some contracts to wanted more.  Despite being over capacity the farmers wanted to sell more to make up for the fact they were making less per egg.  The farmers coop accepted his contract offers and we'd make more eggs.  This meant all of us myself the farmers and their kids etc. would have to put in the OT to make sure we filled this order.       Now the buyer of the contracts is saying he was messed up when he bought the contracts and cant take physical delivery of the final 10 contracts because of the size of his storage location.  A contract is 5 metric TONS of eggs.  A tonne of eggs is anywhere between 1086 and 1736 dozens of eggs.  In total we are talking about over 1 million eggs.  How do you buy a contract and not know that you do not have appropriate storage let alone 10 contracts  Also for reference a chicken will lay one egg per day if youre lucky.  To fill this over sized order we were sitting there jacking off roosters for a week straight to get all of the chicken jizz and then had to finger every hen to knock them up to get the eggs made.  If you turn on a black light in my place you'd go blind and I have a few roosters following me around and sending me chocolates and flowers.     What should I do  I need this guy to take the damn eggs.,negative
BREAKING Charlie Munger Daily Journal Corp reduces his $BABA stake by 50 in Q1 2022,Charlie Munger  Daily Journal Corp. Q1 2022 13F  Charlie Munger's Q1 2022 13F shows he reduced his position in Alibaba by 50,negative
Beyond Meat,Degenerates I welcome you to the 2nd most short sold stock on the market Beyond Meat. Currently trading at $43.15 this vegan meat stock is a golden ticket. Now I dont much care for vegans but I do care for money. Greed in all its form is good so lets come together and do what GME did and squeeze these people for all they got. Money never sleeps so wake up and buy Beyond Meat BYND,positive
GOV Issue some game license to slove people boring at home in Shanghai,Detail IM   Bilibili DouYu Rise in U.S. as China Ends Video Game Freeze   Shares of Chinese videogame makers and livestreaming platforms rallied on Monday after China approved the first batch of new video game licenses since July. Videogame streaming site Bilibili Inc. closed 7.2 higher and its peer DouYu International Holdings Ltd. rose 2.4. NetEase Inc. pared advance to 2.1 as the mobile game giant was absent from a list of titles published by Chinas National Press and Publication Administration.   Shanghai Reports 23342 Local Caovid Cases For April 11,positive
To the cantaloupe  I mean moon ,,positive
Bought SNDL at .66 how screwed am I,,negative
Musk hints at Tesla's Lithium mining entry...two years after it already allegedly entered the market,  For those who don't remember two years ago Musk and Tesla announced his easy it was to extract lithium from clay and salt and a revolutionary new process at its 2020 battery day.  Allegedly 10000 acres of property rights in Nevada were bought noone has ever seen public land registry relating.  Even though Geochemists from established Lithium miners were unable to perform such alchemy Musk was going to of course.  Yet here we are again with Musk talking up Tesla's entry into Lithium mining.  At least it seems some in the media are finally at least keeping track of the embellishments and hype if not directly daring to cite the BS.  Anyone who has actually done a little homework on Lithium mining will know contrary to popular media reports that many far better informed Geochemists have tried and failed similar techniques that Musk is citing as far back as the 1920's.  To get the salt to react with the lithium silicates requires heating it to 1000 degrees centigrade.  The energy required makes it ridiculously uneconomical versus traditional brine extraction processes.  The Pied Piper continues to play his tunes.,negative
 Can I refuse delivery on 50 tons of Egg futures ,So I went a bit overboard with DCE JD contracts. Fresh Hen Egg Futures. I took a bunch of drugs and my friend had a bird and idk why but it made me think a Bird flu strain coming this year so I got a shit ton of contracts.   Turns out I hit the lottery as farmers across the nation massacred their chicken stocks cuz of bird flu. I got in at about 3750 a contract and cashed out at 4400.   I apparently did not get all of my Contracts out and now I have people contacting me saying I need to take physical delivery of 10 contracts. A contract is 5 metric TONS of eggs  I live in an apartment I cannot take delivery of 50 tons of eggs What do I do I made a killing so I can hire whoever I need to to make this go away but can someone help me I do not want 50 tons of eggs coming to my door.  Would it be illegal for me to list delivery address as the nearest federal reserve building  For referenceperspective there are between approx 1174 and 2381 DOZEN eggs in a single ton. This puts me at approx 720000  1.2 million eggs. I am really Stressing out over the logistics of how the fuck Id ship out this amount of eggs to shelters. It would have to be SO many shelters.  EDIT Those of your DMing mecommenting offering to buy my eggs there is a 0 chance Im doing business with anyone autistic enough to use this sub. Somehow we would find a way to both lose massive money.,negative
Did I really lose $1.2MM by not selling $GME options and going to shares Yes.. did I add more shares and just reload my webull YOLO account Also yes. LFG I WILL KEEP COMING HF,,negative
$990 to Infinity update,,positive
Elon Musk wont join Twitters board after all  The Verge Welp that's one heck of a UTurn,,neutral
CPI predictions for Tuesday Has the market priced it in,I'll go with 8.3.  I'm curious to see how precious metal producers react.  Also curious to see what the fed says.  Hawkish or Super Hawkish,negative
Russia bring us Dreaming Gas Fee,   Detail IM  U.S. Natgas on Track for Highest Close Since 2008 on Rising Heating Demand  U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5 on Monday putting the contract on track for its highest close in 13 years on forecasts for higher heating demand than previously expected and as much higher global gas prices keep U.S. liquefied natural gas LNG exports near record highs.,negative
China March CPI figures are out,,neutral
It was never about the money which is good because I have yet to make any,,negative
I won't trust Cathie Wood any more...,,negative
GOGO YOLO,,positive
Calm down Michelangelo,,negative
In the Coming Months  Everything Will Change,,positive
$SAVEing my portfolio,Spirit airlines is a trash company thats in a ton of debt and has recently been offered a buyout of 33$ per share. The price is currently 26$ per share. Im still regretting the choices that lead me to buying HMHC calls but this one seems less like a scam because I didnt read about it from any of you degenerates.  Im not good at figuring out corporate buyouts and the like what are the odds that they take this 33share offer And if so how can I play this   And does saying this require a disclaimer Cause some people might try this as well.,negative
GME 5k furthest OTM calls yolo,,positive
Yolo'd my first ever $8k on an FHA 3.5 mortgage 2 years ago and now have over $100k 'equity'. Loving this K shaped recovery lol. Idk if this is allowed,,positive
Interest rates and Oil market volume 247 live stream,Ater several years learning to chart and write pinescript I found some ways to display tickerssecurities that normally are only visible on the daily time frame.. until 247 markets nobody required this information.. But it does exist such as onchain data and many more.. I put a live stream to showcase some of my research    ,neutral
DD short future contracts on eggs,I believe there is artificial demand for eggs currently because of some bird flu outbreak that was temporarily pumping the price of eggs. This coupled with unusual future buying has caused the price of eggs to be much higher than it should be.  I believe there is an estimated float of 50 tons of eggs that have yet to be delivered or sold. Once these eggs are delivered the price of egg futures should tank as this will lead to a surplus of egg commodities on the market with low buyers.  I would even be confident that this 50 ton egg order isnt even going into the egg market. Which means this egg order will probably be repod or just completely lost to churn. If this happens the future price of eggs will crash because 50 tons were delivered but not sold on the commodity market. This leads farmers to believe this elevated demand for eggs will continue causing oversupply and supply shocks decreasing price despite bird flu worries.  I cant explain where Ive heard this figure of 50 tons of eggs being purchased in the market but not used in the commodity market but I assure you short future contracts will print once this order gets essentially wasted.,negative
Having fought this battle for decades I am pleased that the House of Representatives has done its job and set the table for success in the Senate and ultimately for the American people.,Having fought this battle for decades I am pleased that the House of Representatives has done its job and set the table for success in the Senate and ultimately for the American people.  By Rep. Earl Blumenauer DOR  After working on cannabis reform for decades we hit another critical threshold Congress passed both the comprehensive MORE Act which is the gold standard in cannabis reform and my Medical Marijuana Research Act.    Make no mistake. The reason we are at this moment and poised to end the tragic unfair and misguided prohibition on cannabis is because the people got there first. Thirtyeight states have enacted medical marijuana and 18 states have determined that adult use should be legal. In total 98 percent of the population has access to some form of legalized cannabis because at the state level the fact that over twothirds of the public favor full legalization matters. While the federal government isnt there yet that too is changing.  The Senate can put these pieces inline with each other  banking comprehensive reform and research.,positive
Short Strangle Wheel option strategy idea,   tldr  Wheel but you also have 100 shares of the underlying and sell Covered calls along with the Cash secured puts.  So there are many ways to describe this strategy and I don't know if others have already come up with it they probably have but I wanted to know your guys opinion on it and what you think some issues might be. It is essentially a short strangle but you own shares of the underlying and wheel it. So with the usual wheel strategy you sell cash secured puts and generate premium from that and then when assigned sell covered calls above the basis you got assigned on the puts and if its a bullish stock it will eventually pay out. This strategy works similarly except you buy 100 shares of the underlying and sell both OTM calls and OTM puts This way you can profit if the stocks go up or stays even. If you get assigned on your call its above what you bought the shares for so you make profit along with the puts you sold that expire worthless. If the stock stays between the 2 strikes it will act similarly to a iron condor and you just get to keep the premium. If you get assigned on the puts you just buy more shares of the underlying which dollar cost averages your initial shares meaning you can sell more covered calls at a lower basis to breakeven and make profit. Essentially its the wheel but you benefit if the stock stays the same and goes up but if the stock goes down it just DCAs your shares. As long as its a bullish stock and you have enough capital you can just keep dollar cost averaging your way down and the stock would have to rebound a minimal amount for you to still make profit on the shares and you keep all the premium you farmed a long the way from either side. I'm sure there is probably something I have forgotten about or not taken account so please leave your thoughts in the comments.,neutral
BIDEN TO MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT ON LOWERING COSTS AT 245 PM CT TUES,Read the title. It's the whole post  BIDEN TO MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT ON LOWERING COSTS AT 245 PM CT TUES  ,positive
Every DDTA I see lately,,negative
Elon declines offer to join Twitter Board,,neutral
Report AIEnabled Marketing To Double In The Next Decade Says WPPs GroupM  BampT,,positive
Walmart DD,Attention retards   Walmart is undervalued. Yes I know its at an all time high. Yes it's still undervalued.   It's chief competition Amazon is experiencing unionization and increasingly poor reputation for quality control of its vendors. It shouldn't take a phD in statistics to divinate which products are scams and which are real but its getting that way and my brain is too smooth for that shit. Walmart's online retail business is growing steadily and will continue to regain share from Amazon.   Stagflation and skyrocketing food prices will further drive sales. People who'd formerly turn up their nose at Walmart and opt for Target can no longer afford to pass over the savings to be had. This is already being demonstrated....Walmart share price keeps inching up even on red days for the SampP 500.   And finally there is simply no other store where you can go to behold the finest of degenerate shenanigans. You'll never see drunk man in his skidmarked whitey tighties screaming at his 500lb baby mama on Prime Video. As entertainment budgets tighten humanity will turn once again to the Thunderdome of Alabama for their excitement.   Have 3.3 of portfolio stake currently tripling position today.   TLDR I like the stupid yellow smiley face buy Wallyworld,negative
Inflation is done....kinda,The Fed controls the supply of money.  Supply and demand determines value.  Just like oil when a lot of supply goes into the market the value of oil goes down.  Same thing with money.    We do not have a demand issue.  The base economy fuckin sucks.  We have a supply issue where the Fed supplied so much money into the market they reduced the value of money and caused inflation.  Well now it's the opposite.  They will be taking out excess supply making the value of money go up to reverse the effects of inflation.  BUT they will cause a recession that may already be here.   The main component of an economy is consumer spending.  Investment government spending and net exports are the others.  Inflation is already affecting consumer spending which affects demand which eventually affects employment.  The Fed will tame inflation by removing money supply and likely overtame inflation causing a recession.  As debt service costs go up consumer demand will decrease and corporations will look to lay off people.   We are starting a nasty cycle....that will essentially lead to little or no growth for the next 5 to 10 years.   The Fed will again take too long to reverse the inflation taming.  But the problem is that we don't actually have a demand driven inflation with a robust economy...so what is the end result going to be  Deflation.    How long for I got no fuckin idea.  So we will start a deflationary process in the next 618 months and the only option will be 0 and printing money again.   Expect that within 24 months the printer goes brr again.  Yes...no one has said this yet but the Fed may cause a deflationary spiral especially if they don't act properly.   The problem is I have no idea what to do but I do know one person that does and consistently beats the market when times are tough for equities....Mr. Buffet.  Go with BRK.B and close your eyes for the next 12 months.,negative
China binds Russian business. Entrepreneurs are switching to the yuan,As stated by money.pl   gt Sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine are pushing Russia into the orbit of Chinese influence.  Economic cooperation is tightening but Beijing plays a dominant role in this arrangement.  Dreams of a big ruble are falling aside.  Russian business is already switching to yuan billing and the Chinese are buying Russian oil and coal for their currency  gt Although Vladimir Putin dreamed of a petrublel and settlements with the West in the Russian currency the economic reality reveals this dream.  It is not the ruble but the yuan that has a much greater influence in the region and with each day of sanctions China's position will strengthen drawing Russia into an orbit of dependence and influence.  gt Russian banks have already recorded a sharp increase in the number of accounts in yuan writes Rzeczpospolita and explains that the transition to the yuan has become necessary for Russian business because of the sanctions.  gt This tendency is confirmed by a poll of the Kommersant newspaper quoted by Rzeczpospolita.  Since the beginning of the year the amount of funds in accounts in Chinese currency has increased approximately eightfold at Tinkoff Bank and fourfold at MTS Bank and Uralski Bank for Reconstruction and Development UBRD.  The same is happening at the St. Petersburg Bank where the number of these business accounts has almost 3.5fold and the number of contracts in Chinese currency has doubled.  gt Russian entrepreneurs are forced to trade in yuan.  The domestic currency is unstable and Western sanctions and Putin's decrees such as the one of March 5 prohibiting the repayment of liabilities to entities from the list of hostile countries in Western currencies make it difficult for entrepreneurs to do business with contractors abroad.  gt   China also has ambitions  at least in Asia  to dominate trade in its currency.  If you add to this the fact that the sanctions throw Moscow into the arms of Beijing's dependence the yuan will rather have a dominant role  confirmed in an interview with money.pl prof.  Dariusz Filar.  gt As Rzeczpospolita points out more Russian companies are betting on the yuan.  Among them are companies trading in spare parts textiles and food products.  The oil steel and mining industries are also starting to deal in Chinese currency.  According to the daily private Chinese companies are buying oil and coal from Russia for delivery in May and June.  gt Russia is falling more and more into the orbit of Chinese interests.  As we wrote in money.pl China is Russia's largest trading partner and although bilateral trade reached a new record of $ 147 billion last year these relations are very asymmetrical.  gt The strategic partnership between Russia and China brings more benefits to the Middle Kingdom than to Russia.  Russia is only the 15th export partner of the PRC.  In addition China has overtaken Russia in terms of trade with most Central Asian countries.  gt The situation is similar in the energy sector especially in the gas sector.  In 2014 after Russia's military intervention in Crimea when Russia received further economic sanctions from the European Union and was isolated in the West China after ten long years of negotiations suddenly decided to conclude a gas contract with it forcing the Kremlin to accept a low  delivery prices.  Autotranslated,negative
Jeff bezos and Elon musk discussion about Twitter.,,neutral
Does anyone know how to invest in rare fish  ,,neutral
played Tesla options last week. 5k to 17k,,positive
TLRY OPTIONS YOLO $7K ON FDs,,positive
If Google Issues No DividendsNo Voting Rights Stock. How Much Would They Trade For,Let's say tomorrow Google issues 100000 Class D shares. These shares confer no voting rights and are forever ineligible to receive a dividend.  Question For how much would you expect these to trade in the open market  My prediction They would trade at the same value as Class A B and C shares. Because when buying a share no one thinks about future dividends or voting rights.  Bonus question Has any public company ever done this  Next Stage Class E shares Same as D but now also ineligible to receive a share of assets in case of liquidation.,neutral
Be your own hedgefund,,positive
Thank you WSB for being the best cornerman. I'm never out of the fight especially since I can always borrow money from loan sharks.,,positive
Blackstone BX looking good for a repeat performance.,TLDR BX June 130C for $2.60 or less. Exit the trade when BX hits $130 or in three weeks.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps2498f6f5c9f51d043e76d7a2e4c9b2e1a2ff9ec0  It looks like BX is primed to once again hit a technical rally. See previous DD  Most technical analysis techniques look at historical prices to divine future prices. This technical analysis focuses instead on the current Option Open Interest. In other words my crayons taste different.  Whenever the stock price blue touches the delta neutral line green and crosses back up it tends to go another 58.  I developed a tool which uses the entire open interest to calculate three important numbers  Delta Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option delta is 0.  Gamma Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is 0.  Gamma Maximum  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is the maximum.  The theory behind it is simple enough institutions tend to be the largest holders of short options contracts and are therefore obligated to hedge against those options contracts while collecting juicy premium riskfree.  By calculating similar numbers to what these institutions are dependent on I'm hoping to ride their coattails and earn tendies from their rounding errors.  Positions   BX  June 130C at $2.16  Will buy when market opens. Targeting to pay less than $2.60share for the contracts.,positive
We're posting homeowner gain porn now,,positive
Thoughts on the housing market  equities from an old school WSBer.,ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps8115688377efbb5a6dfe08e54e83e62d1dc928cb  ampx200B  The above image is proof of my old school ness of wsb. If only I could find some JNUG UGAZ screenshots.   ampx200B  Its been a ride. I have lost so much money. I have gained so much more. Back in the old times we didn't know what options were so we were trading off of 3x and holding tsla and amd shares.   ampx200B  What did i do with all the money I bought a house. Its 600k in a medium cost of living area. I still owe alot of money on it. Va home loan. This is what everyone else is doing. The housing market will not crash.  It may correct in the hot locations cali but everywhere else is fine.  The rule of 10s in real estate has not been observed. The rule of 10s state that for every 1 of interest rate increases housing should take a 10 decline. This has completely been disregarded this cycle.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsa4b8a2cc52458e814b5b3312f46d9d622617663d  The 10Yr is fucking parabolic. Completely detached from reality. It will calm down. This will bring upward pressure during the most important time of the year for home buying. Rates will normalize right when everyone want to buy and sell.   ampx200B  Equities are still overvalued mostly in software. But there is still good finds out there.    QRVO  HP  F  VRTX  SPG   INTC  ampx200B  The fucking fed.   I hope some of you new WSB start paying attention to bonds and the fed. It controls the market cycle. Because liquidity is king. The real question is will the fed overshoot us I dont think so. Jpow is smart as fuck. If anyone can soft landing this. Its fucking Jpow. You literately have all of the tendies because of this man.  ampx200B  Its going to be a bumpy ride.  formatpngampautowebpampsc2f94fe7244c6645559da9c516d1701cd1d37f2a  Spy will see 400 before year end. That is max pain and you better have your powder dry because thats it. Start a shopping list now.   ampx200B  ampx200B  TLDR    buy a house when rates normalize.  Leaps from the stocks in the list.  Short spy aka short tsla and appl,negative
Im enjoying the memes,,positive
Elon is starting to unload his $TWTR position. Time to buy puts.,Ive got $46 weekly Puts  There were two huge sell orders that executed simultaneously today after hours.  Each one for 1105885 shares.  Out of sheer curiuosioty I went through Elons 13D because it listed all of the buy orders hes made since January.  And what I noticed is all the orders seem random but theres a lot of repeating numbers in his buy quantities.  Its the kind of thing the IRS looks for in structured deposit cases.  You think youre making random deposits into your bank account but you dont notice that you keep using your favorite number in the amount over and over again.  DateShares boughtPrice  1312022620083$36.828 212022542496$37.549 222022850373$36.748 2320223649957$34.391 2420221070429$36.184 2720224839507$36.515 282022730000$35.733 292022638283$36.886 21020222604907$36.642 21120221291432$36.523 2142022958849$35.92 2152022371075$36.511 2162022655000$35.814 2172022731581$35.891 21820221331040$34.506 22220221256751$33.231 22320221063170$32.806 2242022838793$33.765 2252022695849$34.784 22820221025518$35.320 312022897656$35.326 322022992785$34.575 3320221211426$33.971 3420221016259$33.376 3720221779530$33.067 3820222228858$33.769 3920221005125$34.154 31020221228833$33.932 31120222927000$33.238 31420222770284$33.082 31520221966000$33.791 31620222978376$34.992 31720221500000$37.089 31820222858340$38.252 32120221942482$37.280 32220222476000$38.542 32320222502140$38.149 32420221926764$38.675 32520223491274$38.202 32820222603779$38.772 32920222875934$40.301 33120222000000$38.818 4120222171100$39.341  Look at all those repeating and patterned numbers  Why does that matter  Because the two AH sells add up to 2211770.  Its Elons subconscious tell he put in an AH order and it executed in 2 different trades but it looks like he made his money and is starting to unload his trollmeme holdings.,positive
Twitter is The Hindenburg  Elon is the Flame  You have not been paying close attention,Updatefollow up . There is no hostile takeover _is_doomed_there_is_no_hostile_takeover   Not financial advice Manage risk  I'm going to walk you through very methodically why Twitter is doomed and why Elon can't and won't save it with heavy DD. If anything he's a major catalyst to accelerate this process so I've taken the time to explain it here. I've categorized each section incase your brain is too smooth to understand one of the sections like the profit margins etc.  Also Elon's  Tweets today are ... well just look for yourself..   I keep getting comments about this  Twitter is already dead the institutions holding twitter hold it for heavy influence of the consumers. That stock and its financials don't mean much to them other than this. IMHOnfa  Gonna post this again at the top  gtTwitter is committed to impartiality in the development and enforcement of its policies and rules the company said in an unattributed statement. Our policy decisions are not determined by the Board or shareholders and we have no plans to reverse any policy decisions. As always the statement added our Board plays an important advisory and feedback role across the entirety of our service. Our day to day operations and decisions are made by Twitter management and employees.  Yes I know it's a lie connect the dots it's easy.  ampx200B   Quick Recap Since April Fool's Day  ampx200B  Let's start here since this is undoubtedly where most of the smooth brains heard about this.  Elon took a 9.2 stake in twitter as reported  Mon Apr 4. while most of you were sleeping at 3 in the morning the stock gapped up 27 via 13G filing which is required for anyone who purchases more than 5 of a company. This publicly and officially discloses big ownership stakes.  When smooth brains heard this they thought 'wow Elon musk is in must be going to the moon' so they bought the top and pushed it up another few percent some smooth brains got out for tiny profit. Others got dumped on and got left holding the bag or sold for a loss because there was zero conviction or research into this play other than such stake much wow.  Some geniuses in this sub predicted it perfectly down to the timeline and price action how it would get dumped. Major congrats to you to being well versed in retard timelines and I hope you are still holding those puts because we've got a lot further to go down imo  ampx200B   Wendy's Laws of Tendies Applies  ampx200B  Should of simply applied  _wendys_laws_of_tendies  gt1st Law of Wendy's Mass stupidity. Assume everyone and you is retarded. The sooner you understand we are all natural born crayon eaters the sooner you are on the path to tendieland. Never trust anyone or yourself at first. If something seems retarded to you at first it's probably genius. The inverse is also true if you or others think it's genius at first glance it's probably retarded. Same thing if you see other people saying that. I don't care who they are. Do more research into it. Figure out how retarded everyone is so you can replace those crayon dinners with chicken feasts.  Now it's time to go one step further and apply  gt2nd Law of Wendy's Confusion. The more confusing and convoluted the information is the likelier it is you'll make big tendies. Big words and vocabulary you don't really understand means it's above your paygrade and therefore likely the opposite of retarded. Learn more about it and see if it's worth buying.   What Can Or Will Elon Do And What Can't or Won't He Do  ampx200B  I've seen a lot of next level retarded shit about Elon saving Twitter all over the internet.  Let's lay out the facts  1. Twitter is 77 owned by institutions  2. Elon is the 'single largest holder' but that doesn't mean much since you need 50.1  of a company to 'control it' 3. You cannot do a hostile take over of Twitter because of who owns it. 4. Twitter's Board in a statement put this out yes I know it's a lie they can control it point is they are not going to and they aren't there to make money directly off of TWTR  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps52eb68361bde139f763d168655f4c0fe89d3766c  Meaning Twitter stock is worthless since the employees run the company and Elon doesn't get to decide shit. Same ownership. Same Management.  5. The CEO and the rest of the company doesn't believe in this stuff  gtParag Agrawal Our role is not to  be bound by the First Amendment but our role is to serve a healthy public conversation and our moves are reflective of things that we believe lead to a healthier public conversation. The kinds of things that we do to work about this is to focus less on thinking about free speech but thinking about how the times have changed. One of the changes today that we see is speech is easy on the internet. Most people can speak but our role which is particularly emphasized is who can be heard.  6. Elon is also capped at 14.8 ownership being a board member. But it doesn't matter because the 77 of the other institutions are not giving up their stakes. I'll get into that more later  Now that we laid out some facts lets talk about some implications of this  Elon cannot and will not change twitter in any meaningful way the company does not care about the share holders or even making money. They care about their activism. Ownership is onboard with this and is going to subsidize  like CNN etc. and continue running it in the direction that it has been going in. And even if they didn't a lot of the population will not ever trust TWTR again and a lot of the population esp on Twitter does not like Elon at all. Just look into that yourself if you don't believe me I know it's hard to believe  ampx200B   So what is the current direction of Twitter  Twitter is going down the tubes for a number of very important reasons.  ampx200B   Lets look at the financials and KPIs  First let me give you a peak into the burning dumpster fire that is Twitter's balance sheet  Starting on page 43 of Twitter's Annual Report from 2020 _financials2020arFiscalYR2020_Twitter_Annual_Report.pdf  We can see Twitter pulled in 3.2 B from Advertising Services 508M from Data licensing for a total of 3.7B in revenue  1.37B Cost revenue  873M in 'Research and development'  888M in 'Sales and marketing'  562M in 'general and administrative'  Twitter netted negative 1.1B in profit after setting aside 1B for taxes.  Let's break this down again  Twitter pulled in $3.7B but twitter spent  37 on cost of revenue servers buildings upkeep etc.  23 on Research and development software engineers sociologists artists focus groups market research I believe moderators is in here as well  24 on Sales and marketing sales employees for ads and marketing for userbase and available ad space.  15 of general and administrative executives legal finance info tech hr consulting moderators in both categories probably customer service etc.  3 on interest and other interest on debt financing operations etc.  29 on taxes.  Yes these numbers add to 131 of revenue or in other words a 31 net income loss.  Why is Twitter so expensive to run why is this dumpster fire losing all of this money  Lets go back in time to Twitter in 20112013  Here's the same report from that time period. _financialsarTwitterInc2013AnnualReport.pdf  Page 57  Going to compare to Twitters Monthly active users MAU textAs20of20the20first20quarterdaily20active20users20mDAUdaily20active20users20mDAU.  2013 225M monthly active users MAU  Cost of Revenue  266 M 330M inflation adjusted  Research and Development.RampD 593M 740M inflation adjustedSales and Marketing 316M 400M inflation adjustedGeneral and Administrative 124M 160M inflation adjusted  2011 100M MAU  Cost of Revenue 62M 85M inflation adjusted  RampD 80M 110M inflation adjusted  Sales and marketing 26M 36M inflation adjusted  General and administrative 233M 310M inflation adjusted  Ok so lets do some ratios with inflation adjusted numbers compared to users  2020 330M MAU  Cost of revenue $4.15 per monthly active user  RampD $2.65 per monthly active user  Sales and marketing $2.7 per monthly active user  General and admin $1.7 per monthly active user  2013 225M monthly active users MAU numbers below adjusted for inflation  Cost of revenue $1.47 per monthly active user  RampD $3.29 per monthly active user  Sales and marketing $1.78 per monthly active user  General and admin $0.71 per monthly active user  2011 100M monthly active users MAU numbers below adjusted for inflation  Cost of revenue $0.85 per monthly active user  RampD $1.10 per monthly active user  Sales and marketing $0.36 per monthly active user  General and admin $0.85 per monthly active user  So what's alarming about this trend is that twitter is becoming very expensive to operate on a per MAU basis.  Let's recap  Cost of revenue went from $0.85 in 2011 per user to $4.15user in 2020 inflation adjusted 388 increase  RampD went from $1.10user in 2011 to $2.65user in 2020 inflation adjusted 141 increase  Sales and marketing went from $0.36user in 2011 to $2.70user in 2020 inflation adjusted 650 increase  And general and admin from $0.85user in 2011 to $1.70user in 2020 inflation adjusted 100 increase  As you can see twitter suffers from huge inflated costs over the years of running their business.  I suspect this has a lot to do with financing of their servers through amortization payments.  But also trying to scale their business with the technology that was available 10 years ago and not being able to change their business model because it was bad PR to fire off thousands people and replace them with future technology they've essentially been forced to grow with their existing business modeling scaling up which you can see results in worse and eventually negative margins.  Twitter has 5500 employees 1 employee for every 60000 users  This is one of the things they fear more is becoming obsolete in superior utilization of technology which they have can kicked to avoid a PR nightmare. by their other competitors I won't mention here just yet  Facebook has all of these similar issues with growing costs and declining growth etc.  More sources  Twitters growth is slowing and stagnant   As is their profitability    And ARPUActivity Engagement  14B in Total Assets  6.7B in Total Liabilities  Net income is negative and historical trends are horrible    FCF does not look great either  Also considering censorship is Twitters product what userbase is left after that . Besides they never did anything wrong why admit that now to change it if profit is not a motive  All down the tubes. Ownership does not care employees do not care. Twitter is not about making money to them and it never will be imo  ampx200B   Why is Elon there then He's not stupid  ampx200B  You are completely right about Elon. But understand that Elon's net worth is near 300B and this is a troll purchase to him. Advertisement for his products and entertainment. He knows exactly what he is doing. The employees there are already revolting  Get it  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsf4178e80678e2d341f15ea439afb97507ff08246  ampx200B  Twitter is taking since last year to roll out a simple edit button  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsb8d15d2926b42a79df9ab6c17809e0416998a56e  ampx200B   TLDR  ampx200B  Twitter r Fuk. 1st and 2nd Law of Wendy's applies here. Elon can't and wont be saving shit even if he wants to I've got even more DD about that and Twitters competitors but I won't mention it here for now  Even if it does change the userbase and employees will revolt even more than they already are.  Inverse Cramer Inverse Cathie   Positions  I've got calls etc and shares all over on competitors  Also  TWTR May 50p  TWTR May 40p  TWTR Jun 25p  TWTR Sept 20p  Be careful though. The force of retard is strong in retail in this one. I've seen smoothers say TWTR is the next amazon and that Elon is doing a hostile takeover.  Also Institutional money has a lot vested to prop them up.  Good luck  gt3rd Law of Wendy's Diamond Hands. If you're betting around short term small movement you're going to paper hand or miss out. The best things can be volatile or daunting before doing the research. The payout has to be worth the risk otherwise you'll lose out over time even if you win more often. See that stock down 50 It might the best or the worst opportunity of your life you don't know that based on the chart alone. See that stock up 500 it might get rug pulled or keep going you just don't know and need to look into it more before FOMO'ing in or bitching out.   gt   gt4th Law of Wendy's Allocation size. Go all in and eventually you'll be homeless. Good plays don't work out and bad ones do work out. Be ready to double quadruple down or even quit with some other money. Nothing you see is financial advice including this guide for retards.   Not financial advice Manage risk  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps9b6e8137de313a3a39e9786ff2fca5627d528e6f  Edit I can't keep up with all of the comments  gtThere are only two outcomes the first being infinitely more likely imo   gt   gt1.Twitter is worth too much to the current owners as an advertisement for their agendas and products obviously not twitter's balance sheet itself they give up nothing and let Elon touch nothing because that billboard space is far more important for them to control. Twitter goes down the poop shoots because of competition   gt   gt2.Elon actually manages to bring about meaningful change they already said hell no see op and the userbase revolts and dips already happening  ampx200B,negative
Calling all dividend investors  Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields A good chunk of them are whats called a yield trap Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut,Calling all dividend investors   Stop making investment decisions based on high dividend yields   A good chunk of them are what's called a yield trap  Only relying on dividend yield percentage is a good way to get a dividend cut.  Few people realize this until the dividend gets cut and it's too late.  I look for businesses that will continue to pay dividends raise those dividends higher than inflation and they have growth divers that will increase their share price.  Stay away from high dividend yields.   gt Find out why the company has such a high dividend yield before considering it.   gt Yields that appear unrealistically high often end up being suspended or cut leaving investors who bought the stock just for the dividend disappointed.,negative
Thanks GME $73k Gain,,positive
china is buying Russian oil and coal,So i found this info on Bloomberg    It might be the case that the spike of the oil production in Russia it's not only related to Turkey but also to China.,neutral
Continue to accumulate $PAA units or open the $12$17 January 2024 Call Spread,Below my comments lies a quote from an SA article today written by Samuel Smith. It independently confirms my previous posts for those that were hesitant.  This is not an overnight  to the moon.   This will be a gradual climb but well worth the wait.  For those interested my top 7 holdings are as follows  1 $PAA  2 $ET  3 $NCLH until $25 then Ill sellthats post dilution fair value in my opinion 4 $C  5 $T received WBD shares today 6 $DIS 7 $VSCO  Other positions include $LEVI $VFH $KTB $EAT $VFC $FL these are all very undervalued cash flow amp sales growth positive companies.  While I dont have positions yet I dont hate $FB or $PYPL here.    1. Plains All American Pipeline NASDAQPAA  PAA's strength lies in its welllocated midstream energy infrastructure in the lowestcost U.S. shale basin Permian Basin. In fact it has such substantial scale and strategic positioning in the Permian Basin that Morningstar speculates that  It's not much of a stretch to state that there is a high probability that in some fashion Plains touches every barrel of oil the Permian produces earning a fee if not multiple fees.  While weakness in volumes from the basin relative to supply of infrastructure has led to poor financial results for PAA in recent years demand is beginning to recover in the basin and we expect PAA to be a big beneficiary of this trend.   Wall Street analysts seems to agree with consensus estimates for distributable cash per unit expected to improve at a 7.9 CAGR over the next half decade despite growth capital expenditures set to decline to a mere $275 million in 2022 down from $950 million in 2020.  Management is allocating the extra free cash flow primarily towards paying down debt in an effort to further strengthen its investment grade standing and set the business up to better weather any future downcycles like it experienced in 2020.  Additionally PAA has been allocating free cash flow towards equity unit repurchases  accelerating its buyback pace in Q4  and is also growing its distribution at a brisk pace just hiked its quarterly distribution by 20.8 in an effort to restore it to its precut level.   With an expected 2022 free cash flow level of $1.3 billion PAA currently offers a mouthwatering 16.5 free cash flow yield that covers its recently increased distribution by more than two times.   This  when combined with expectations of strong perunit distributable cash flow growth over the next half decade  will enable PAA to deleverage grow its distribution and buy back units at a very solid clip and should lead to outsized total returns for unitholders. ,positive
NOK to the moon,I had a dream last night that I was explaining my online trading account to my brother. Everything was in the red so it was pretty realistic and I started scrolling down my portfollio showing him some of the stocks I own.  I then got to NOK. And as we looked at it it went up to $20. I said that's unusual for a stock to go up that much in just a short time and no sooner had the words left my mouth did it go to $40. And then I got interested and it went to $80. So I was buying like a fucking tramp on chips and it went all the way to $254. Stayed around the $250 mark for a couple of minutes and then went back down to about $116 before eventually going all the way back to the start I obviously did not sell in time.  Anyway. I'm not sure of the exact time this took place so I've gone and bought shares off the back of it  937  5.33  Admittedly this isn't the best DD you'll ever read. Equally though it's not the worst.  If you need to tell me this is not financial advice then God help you.,positive
Can Elon Musk purchase another 11 of Twitter in the NEAR future 11  9  Twitter board control pls any SEC rules gurus,This might be a relatively long post but I've been looking at Delaware law and various other information sources related to this entire Elon amp Twitter thing. Some of this post is going to be statements and the rest is questions. I'm really hoping I can find some SEC guru that can point me in the right direction because I have questions but don't know how to google them lol. Sorry if it sounds like I don't really know what I'm talking about because honestly I don't but I would really like some insight from people who do.  ampx200B  This document here was signed by both the CEO of Twitter Parag Agrawal and Elon Musk. It states the following  1. Elon will become a board member. 2. Elon cannot purchase more than 14.9 of Twitter. 3. This document falls under Delaware law.  So my takeaway here is this document holds significance because it limits Elon from acquiring more than 14.9 of Twitter. From here I went to figure out why 14.9 is significant this is what I found.  This document here CTRL  F gt 15 says the following  1.  These provisions alone or together could delay or prevent hostile takeovers and changes in control or changes in our management.  2.  As a Delaware corporation we are also subject to provisions of Delaware law including Section�203 of the Delaware General Corporation law which prevents certain stockholders holding more than 15 of our outstanding common stock from engaging in certain business combinations without approval of the holders of at least twothirds of our outstanding common stock not held by such 15 or greater stockholder.  3. There's a lot more it's just too much to copy paste here.  My takeaway from this is you cannot own 14.9 rule is they're trying to prevent him from pushing for a hostile takeover. My next question was what percentage ownership do you need to force the board to listen to you this is what I found.  This document here CTRL  F gt 20 says the following  1.  4 Control including the terms controlling controlled by and under common control with means the possession directly or indirectly of the power to direct or cause the direction of the management and policies of a person whether through the ownership of voting stock by contract or otherwise. A person who is the owner of 20 or more of the outstanding voting stock of any corporation partnership unincorporated association or other entity shall be presumed to have control of such entity in the absence of proof by a preponderance of the evidence to the contrary Notwithstanding the foregoing a presumption of control shall not apply where such person holds voting stock in good faith and not for the purpose of circumventing this section as an agent bank broker nominee custodian or trustee for 1 or more owners who do not individually or as a group have control of such entity.  2. There's a lot more it's just too much to copy paste here.  My takeaway from this is that if Elon is able to get 20 of Twitter he has control over the board and they need to listen to what he says. Now a recap on what's happened in the recent days.  Elon originally started acquiring Twitter shares starting 1312022 and recently announced his position whether he did this abiding by all of the SEC rules is debatable but not the point. Right after this information came out both the current and previous CEO of Twitter made public posts welcoming Elon to the board and saying he'll be a great addition to the team. However late last night apparently Elon had a change of heart and completely went back on the contract he signed this one from above. This part is speculation but maybe Elon approached the board and said I want changes made to the way you guys handle censorship then they told him no. If Elon backs out of an agreement that basically only says one thing you cannot have more than 14.9 then wouldn't that imply he has intentions of acquiring more than 14.9 And if he's going to go for 14.9 wouldn't he just go for 20 so he has control over the board   There was a tweet Elon made saying something along the lines of expect significant improvements to Twitter in the coming months. In order for someone to make changes to the platform he would need 1 of 2 things or both.  1. A board seat which he declined. 2. 20 ownership.  All signs seem to point towards Elon buying another 11 granting him power over the board forcing them to listen to him.   The questions that I wasn't able to figure out on my own are as follows  1. Are there any SEC rules that prohibit Elon from selling the 9.1 he recently purchased in the near future Wouldn't him selling now be a deliberate pump and dump How would he be punished if he did this He knew that his purchase would increase the stock value it sounds like textbook price manipulation to just flip sides and sell now. 2. Are there any SEC rules that prohibit Elon from purchasing another 11 in the NEAR future. I understand he'll be able to buy more shares going forward now that he's voided the contract he had with Twitter but is there a time limit after just recently buying the 9.1  I tried to find the answers to these questions but I have no idea where to look. Really hoping there's some SEC guru around that can provide some insight here.,negative
American Autist,,negative
Norwegian salmon as an investment,ampx200B  MOWI chart from the last monthformatpjpgampautowebpamps370c0a345853bd7485f79647ca4c8fc9c6c069e5  Hello friends  it's been a month since Biden banned Russian seafood imports and that has caused Norwegian salmon to moon for 19  since then. I tried to warn about this as soon as I heard the news but WSB didn't let me post because I am so new here. I think this is the last chance to hop on board before it's mooning to euphoric rates.  Norwegian salmon is also a hedge for the looming food crisis. As the lowest carbon emitting source of animal protein Norwegian salmon will cover for shortages in other foods. Also Omega 3's and stuff.  Mvh  Sven,positive
Tech ANALysis,,negative
Elon is starting to unload his $TWTR position. Time to buy puts.,Ive got $46 weekly Puts  There were two huge sell orders that executed simultaneously today after hours.  Each one for 1105885 shares.  Out of sheer curiuosioty I went through Elons 13D because it listed all of the buy orders hes made since January.  And what I noticed is all the orders seem random but theres a lot of repeating numbers in his buy quantities.  Its the kind of thing the IRS looks for in structured deposit cases.  You think youre making random deposits into your bank account but you dont notice that you keep using your favorite number in the amount over and over again.  DateShares boughtPrice  1312022620083$36.828 212022542496$37.549 222022850373$36.748 2320223649957$34.391 2420221070429$36.184 2720224839507$36.515 282022730000$35.733 292022638283$36.886 21020222604907$36.642 21120221291432$36.523 2142022958849$35.92 2152022371075$36.511 2162022655000$35.814 2172022731581$35.891 21820221331040$34.506 22220221256751$33.231 22320221063170$32.806 2242022838793$33.765 2252022695849$34.784 22820221025518$35.320 312022897656$35.326 322022992785$34.575 3320221211426$33.971 3420221016259$33.376 3720221779530$33.067 3820222228858$33.769 3920221005125$34.154 31020221228833$33.932 31120222927000$33.238 31420222770284$33.082 31520221966000$33.791 31620222978376$34.992 31720221500000$37.089 31820222858340$38.252 32120221942482$37.280 32220222476000$38.542 32320222502140$38.149 32420221926764$38.675 32520223491274$38.202 32820222603779$38.772 32920222875934$40.301 33120222000000$38.818 4120222171100$39.341  Look at all those repeating and patterned numbers  Why does that matter  Because the two AH sells add up to 2211770.  Its Elons subconscious tell he put in an AH order and it executed in 2 different trades but it looks like he made his money and is starting to unload his trollmeme holdings.,negative
I bought 150 TMV  $88.10  these are tripple short long treasury etf.,ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps4058d8b1ad95f67dfc517e10546fcec12b637431  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps413d5908a268972a9ba50529dcb8b98a8b86b02a  Im am basically buying tippled levered puts on the 20 year plus treasury. This was $5000 in 2008. Today they have been overbought by the FED and are garbage  who wants a 30 year bond that pays 2 when inflation is more than 10. these bonds are trash.  ampx200B  TMVformatpngampautowebpamps52c04f0d12164459927373f9b2cac3a8d651201e  But YTD...  Its traded from 6088$ and up over 43amp37.formatpngampautowebpamps3aa5428b68f83219e00d7dbde51da54b2708a378  But the fun hasnt started yet...  httpswww.federalreserve.govmonetarypolicybst_recenttrends.htmformatpngampautowebpamps8fda45b5f50b6cc19d2113b4148f5149ab76826e  When the fed dumps these... TMV should print... The chart above is almost 9 Trillion.  Because its an etf you can only lose your initial investment  but you are tripple levered short ,positive
Elon the unpredictable Fucr thesis,    The current $TWTR sentiment  Anticipation of Elon next tweet Based on Elon tweets the stock price will go all time high or all time low. MEME or Bag no between.   Possible outcomes   1 Power move from Elon to show current management they cant WOKE on him in the future.The shares he currently own is basically telling management if you tried to fuck me I will fuck you more by selling my shares and Tweeting about it.   2Elon planning buying more shares. Based on Elon history he is not investorElon always buy into companies because he wants to run them e.g. TeslaPayPal. Elon thoughts can be this I have a car company I have a rocket companyNow I need social media company.       My LOW IQ betshort term and midterm Calls and Puts to satisfy both outcomes.,negative
Coming in hot on Tuesday,,positive
IBRX ImmunityBio has the vaccine for all covid variants and more,IBRX ImmunityBios Patrick SoonShiong is the way. Here he explains to the FDA Peter Marks how his vaccine can cure all variants of covid.   IBRX is not only curing covid but also HIV bladder cancer Phase 3 and much more in their pipeline.   Hiring massively for manufacturing. Submitting a BLA to the FDA this month Massively shorted ripe for a squeeze,positive
J. Powell just pulled down his pants and is currently prepping to drop a massive sht in the Punch Bowl. White House,Inflation has grown so much The WH is releasing statements talking up how bad the CPI report will be before its even released   What does that mean J Powell is going to be given the ultimate green light to just absolutely shit all over the punch bowl and crash the Post 2020 QE Infinity Rally   Bulls be warned their portfolio losses so far is not gonna be comparable to when The New Fed is done   If I were a betting man I know ironic I would expect The FED to call an emergency meeting sometime in the notsodistant future and agree to raise interest rate to Nuclear Fallout levels   PS I hope all the Inflation Doom Dollar End is Nigh crowd is happy as they kept on calling for The Ghost of Volcker and they are about to get their wish,negative
china is buying Russian oil and coal,So i found this info on Bloomberg    It might be the case that the spike of the oil production in Russia it's not only related to Turkey but also to China.,negative
$GOOGL is trading at 5year low PE,I don't understand why $GOOGL is performing so poorly.  Near term catalysts include a stock split and rebound in travel helping Google Flights etc. Furthermore this 5year low includes the 20172019 tightening cycle COVID crash etc. Have I found a real gem where the market has made an error or is the market signaling something I don't quite understand. I've copy pasted the JPMorgan note below where they basically highlight some negatives. Most interesting to me is the Return to office will cost more. Are they talking about free food and shuttles at Google  formatpngampautowebpampsd3a7d98d00ad26891d970982799638be22e46cd2  To be fair JPM research highlights the following in a recent note  Heading into 1Q22 Internet earnings were trimming estimates for 11 companies  across our coverage universe. Key factors driving our revisions include 1 impact  from the RussiaUkraine war amp contagionspillover effect mostly in Europe 2 softer  brand ad spending as marketers avoid ad placements near controversial content 3 risk  of lighter consumer spending given inflation amp higher gas prices wgreater impact at  the low end amp 4 miscellaneous model tweaks. Online ad names comprise 6 of the 11  companies GOOGL FB SNAP PINS TWTR CRTO as they are impacted by all of  the factors noted above. We expect the ad names to continue to decelerate through 2Q  amp for most of them to face margin compression in 2022 given increased hiring RTTO  amp more normalized TampE.,negative
Whitehouse bracing for elevated inflation announcement tomorrow, The Biden administration is bracing for inflation to continue its historic rise when the March Consumer Price Index is published Tuesday morning. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in Monday's briefing that while we are in a better place than we were last month the administration expects headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike.,negative
Get on the $PAA money train while you can ,,positive
Open Interest in $PAA Jan 2023 $12 Long Calls Exploded this week. $PAA Jan 2023 $10$15 Call Spread Open Interest Increased Significantly. $PAA Jan 2014 $12$17 Call Open Interest Almost Doubled. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count continues to rise in the Permian,The Baker Hughes Active Oil Rig Count data published on Friday confirms that Permian Basin continues to see more production growth than any other US basin.   13 new rigs were added on the US over the previous week with 9 of those rigs added in the Permian.   There are now 546 active rigs in the US with 331 of those in the Permian.  $PAA is the leading pipeline company in the Permian basin and they stand to capitalize more than any other company on the continued production growth. This is confirmed by the 21 increase in their quarterly distribution dividend announced this week and their continued success in deleverage.  $PAA is one of the best opportunities available in this market. Buying the equity will get an 8 yield while the price continues to appreciate over the next few years as the cash flow amp dividend continues to increase.  The call options are a nobrainer as the cash flow continues to drive the share price upward.,positive
 I SPY TWTR TSLA TA  Monday April 11 2022  Scalpers Delight,ampx200B      bearish measured move targets       bullish measured move targets    look for   SPY   Lose 446.67  446.01 and   444.86  443.51   440.66  437.31 needs to lose 443  Break 447.82 and   449.26  450.59   453.86  457.17 needs to break 450.59  15 min.formatpngampautowebpampse20f6b75bc01e50f932398e9491fe9510276a7f5   TWTR    44.52  43.17 needs to lose 45.81  Break 46.66 and  47.28  Break 47.28 and  47.87  48.54   49.92  51.30 needs to break 48.54  15 min.formatpngampautowebpampscca05fc975c8ff85ddc00fabc3c0a9a4f6545f8c   TSLA    1002.58  977.44 needs to break 1027.70  1021.54  Break 1043.46 and  1056.73  1065.17  1078.91    1104.09  1129.54 needs to break 1078.91  15 min.formatpngampautowebpamps1b63f115165143f9d49a8327da9d1a4d55c0da46  Thanks for reading  NightMan,positive
Report AIEnabled Marketing To Double In The Next Decade Says WPPs GroupM  BampT,,positive
GME 5k furthest OTM calls yolo,,positive
If I sell these at open can I get more than zero,,negative
Forgot to sell 76k of 12 DTE OTM SpyAAPL Puts. HFAI,,negative
Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt says SampP,,negative
Using available margin cushion to sell puts. Seems too great. Am I missing something,Sell 2 TSLA Jun 2023 puts  1050 Buy 400 TSLA shares with option premium $250 amp cash. Margin cushion to sell puts money earnt from it to buy shares.  Logic  1. Premium covers a 25 drop Loss only if lt $800 1 year later can offset by selling another put 2. Premium covers a 25 gain Lose potential gains only if gt$1300 compared to buying extra stock on margin 3. I don't pay margin interest and earn time value while I wait.  No downside apart from  1. Margin call risk if Tesla lt $500 2. Single stock concentration risk 3. Key man risk  Thoughts,positive
Lot of folks saying that Elon ain't liquid enough to take over TWTR but proof is in the pudding. Elon drinks liquids all day in fact his body is at least 60 water. Look out Jack in the Box Doorsky get ready to be wrecked by Elon The Liquid Muskman,,positive
Elon declines offer to join Twitter Board,,neutral
$BBAI. The story of a bear that hates it's own kind,I'm a straight shooter so I'll add TLDR first.  TLDR I believe BBAI to have a reduced float of 1 million shares and a short interest of 900 thousand. And is ripe for short andor gamma squeeze.   REDUCED FLOAT  If you check the float online the number you'll get is just over 12 million shares. THIS IS WRONG  Let's first start with total outstanding shares. Which is 135566227 shares according to the latest s1A filing. Image below is from page 73  formatpngampautowebpamps4aef4d74336ac0944e3eb3d991afb093e0837957  Of these 135 million shares 124564920 shares are locked for one year from date of consummation of merger. Which was December 7th 2021. So this means these 124 million shares are locked until DECEMBER 7th 2022 or till price stays above 12.50 20 out 30 days. We are still in April and price hasn't met the 20 out of 30 condition either far from it.  formatpngampautowebpampse49805f3be0b89a10e6b87991b5db96b07997904  Quick maths.  135566227124564920 11001307  proofformatpngampautowebpamps2e18b0618612b8a1ebe91c2ddc79d4a22acc9178  Out of the 11 million shares about 9.9 million was owned by three entities. Highbridge Tenor and Glazer.  page 38formatpngampautowebpamps370c86575129020024d16464d60fd110a9eda42e  During December BBAI offered these three a forward purchase agreement and gave Highbridge Tenor and Glazer three months to agree. The forward purchase agreement or f.p.a basically said weBBAI can buy your shares for $10.15 if you want to sell them in December BBAI traded for like 78 bucks. You can assume what these 3 entities did.  They all sold by the deadline given. formatpngampautowebpampsd7f5378c60f6644dfcf217a9530ee6893b06c847  latest 10k showing the 3 sold.  Quick maths.  11001307  9952803 1048504  formatpngampautowebpamps1e56d9c8873aa9bb36974aaa5a0d038112fa89bc  So now that we have established the float at 1048504 shares lets get to the fun parts.   SHORT INTEREST  formatpngampautowebpampscd238a7dd5f43e3798c6fe7ef600dcf283176319  YES SHORT INTEREST IS 86.4  of float.   FTD  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsd5d47561da364ae2818fd8ffe28aedffc4838dc2  Notice how the FTD's increase as float shrinks.   OPTIONS STATS  ampx200B  85amp37 callsformatpngampautowebpamps50f21c20d9f269c02ef9e3d94c7a42bfe734a77d  April OIformatpngampautowebpamps95713a199cf22f8e5215965c34a1b4fed5da3005  Let me do something retarded for a sec. You see that open interest on the 15s Well they have a delta of .13. So that means for MM to remain delta neutral they shorted 87 shares for every call right So if say the price goes up from here and these 15s go in the money and the delta for the 15s now is 1 this means MMs have to delta hedge 1300000 shares right And I showed earlier how the float is ONLY 1048504 and short interest is 906000.  SO THIS MEANS PRICE COULD GO PARABOLIC IF MARKET MAKERS ARE DELTA HEDGING AT THE SAME TIME SHORTS ARE TRYING TO COVER.  ampx200B  97amp37 callsformatpngampautowebpamps44748b663738f5b5b6f4bd3549efd1adea5cd843  May OIformatpngampautowebpamps3a1ca61b4c4a9ac698016bb8942a71114a2fd403  This shit is crazy.   ORTEX  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps7d303677a3a52eb31b1ce9012299990a76e1be14  Ortex numbers are insane too. Lets break em down.  First let's address the utilization. A high utilization means a crowded short right Meaning a bunch of people are shorting a stock.  But why is utilization so low for BBAI Well check out cost to borrow costs. They go as high as 900. That's SST range and that went as high as 37 dollars this past week. Also a locked float situation  Try as an experiment to short a share of BBAI. You won't be able to find a share to short. The stock is that illiquid. That's why I believe once this goes parabolic it's gonna go go. Cause no one in their right mind is paying 100s of percent trying to borrow shares to short.  formatpngampautowebpamps0158ddb679812fa006e4095bafe43123da785e1d  Found this on twitter formatpngampautowebpampsce23f361cc47dd17b11ef47764dde3416864693d   POSITIONS  130 April 10s  38 April 15s  Special thanks to alilfishy for bringing it to my attention.,negative
WSB Bulls today,,positive
The great bamboozle,,negative
Funds playing dirty about Semi Conductors,Funds started to decline goal prices for semi conductor companiesfirst amd and now nvda.All of a sudden they are worthless the world doesnt need anymore semi conductors.Soon they will say we do not need chips anymore.But the reality is quite different.Demand is still so strong for semi conductors some automative companies suspended their activities due to lack of chips for last 2 years.I dont even mean many other sectors those always need chips and other semi conductor related products.So the reason is obvious why these bloodsucking funds spread this nonsense.Buy low sell high.All they do is spreading lies and taking your assets cheap.Protect your assets,negative
The FED shooting 0 for the season,,negative
GOGO YOLO,,positive
In the pressure of US  India is gradually unable to stand with Russia,Detail IM  1Some banks stop credit for oil imports by Rosneftowned India refiner Nayara sources   India's HDFC Bank and some foreign banks have stopped offering trade credit for oil imports to Nayara Energy a Russianbacked refiner and some suppliers are seeking payment upfront to avoid potential problems resulting from western sanctions against Moscow four banking and industry sources said.  2 Biden U.S. India Will Continue Consulting on War in Ukraine,neutral
J Powell should show his tools or resign,Tomorrow is a make or break day with CPI numbers.  JPowell kept harping about his ambiguous tools so far for years while inflating the balance sheet.Time for fed to show their tools they talked about along with transitory inflation or resign,negative
BREAKING Charlie Munger Daily Journal Corp reduces his $BABA stake by 50 in Q1 2022,Charlie Munger  Daily Journal Corp. Q1 2022 13F  Charlie Munger's Q1 2022 13F shows he reduced his position in Alibaba by 50,negative
this time I'll trade carefully,,neutral
Wise words from Warren Buffett,,positive
Thanks GME $73k Gain,,positive
its heading towards 100,,positive
Paying down debt is for suckers,,positive
Having fought this battle for decades I am pleased that the House of Representatives has done its job and set the table for success in the Senate and ultimately for the American people.,Having fought this battle for decades I am pleased that the House of Representatives has done its job and set the table for success in the Senate and ultimately for the American people.  By Rep. Earl Blumenauer DOR  After working on cannabis reform for decades we hit another critical threshold Congress passed both the comprehensive MORE Act which is the gold standard in cannabis reform and my Medical Marijuana Research Act.    Make no mistake. The reason we are at this moment and poised to end the tragic unfair and misguided prohibition on cannabis is because the people got there first. Thirtyeight states have enacted medical marijuana and 18 states have determined that adult use should be legal. In total 98 percent of the population has access to some form of legalized cannabis because at the state level the fact that over twothirds of the public favor full legalization matters. While the federal government isnt there yet that too is changing.  The Senate can put these pieces inline with each other  banking comprehensive reform and research.,positive
$100000 in a bank account earns less than $100 per year $100000 invested in an SampP 500 index fund can earn over $10000 per year. You cannot save your way to wealth you must invest. The wealthy understand this.,$100000 in a bank account earns less than $100 per year  $100000 invested in an SampP 500 index fund can earn over $10000 per year.  You cannot save your way to wealth you must invest.  The wealthy understand this.  Saving is a wealth incinerator.  Investing is a wealth accelerator.  Investing is a must   That cannot be stressed enough. If you can invest now because you have the extra money Invest You cannot invest now because you have no extra money please make that a goal to pay off high interest debt free up some money so that you can finally invest  The earlier you learn this the better off youll be.  Do not follow society's 'safest' ways of investing  Savings.   Learn the art of investing.   Start small.,positive
Russian Palladium Refiners banned by London's Platinum and Palladium Market and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange SBSW and other nonRussian Palladium companies stand to gain massively,On Friday the London Platinum and Palladium Market a major trading venue for Palladium and other platinum group metals banned two major Russian state owned Palladium refineries from having their Palladium and Platinum sold on the LPPM's London and Zurich exchanges This was followed up by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also banning the same Russian state owned refiners today Additionally the Japanese Exchange Group's Osaka exchange is now also reviewing whether or not to ban Russian Palladium and Platinum refiners. This has major implications in the Palladium market as Russia produces about 40 of the world's Palladium. Russia's Palladium and Platinum exports were one of the very last major Russian exports left that were not subject to any major sanctions. As civilian deaths mount in the RussoUkrainian War more and more pressure will mount on Western governments and financial regulators to cut Russia further out of the world markets. Any removal of Russian palladium from the world market gives an excellent opportunity for nonRussian Palladium producers to profit. Aside from Russia major palladium mines are located in South Africa the United States and Canada. Palladium is used heavily in both the car industry and electronics industry being used in both catalytic converters and integrated circuits. If major automakers and chip makers are no longer allowed to buy Russian Palladium they will be all forced to compete for Palladium produced by companies like Sibanye Stillwater SBSW which controls nearly all of American Palladium mining production and has major mines in South Africa and Impala Platinum Holdings JSE IMP which has major Canadian and South African mines.    I am long 400 shares of SBSW.,negative
Short Strangle Wheel option strategy idea,   tldr  Wheel but you also have 100 shares of the underlying and sell Covered calls along with the Cash secured puts.  So there are many ways to describe this strategy and I don't know if others have already come up with it they probably have but I wanted to know your guys opinion on it and what you think some issues might be. It is essentially a short strangle but you own shares of the underlying and wheel it. So with the usual wheel strategy you sell cash secured puts and generate premium from that and then when assigned sell covered calls above the basis you got assigned on the puts and if its a bullish stock it will eventually pay out. This strategy works similarly except you buy 100 shares of the underlying and sell both OTM calls and OTM puts This way you can profit if the stocks go up or stays even. If you get assigned on your call its above what you bought the shares for so you make profit along with the puts you sold that expire worthless. If the stock stays between the 2 strikes it will act similarly to a iron condor and you just get to keep the premium. If you get assigned on the puts you just buy more shares of the underlying which dollar cost averages your initial shares meaning you can sell more covered calls at a lower basis to breakeven and make profit. Essentially its the wheel but you benefit if the stock stays the same and goes up but if the stock goes down it just DCAs your shares. As long as its a bullish stock and you have enough capital you can just keep dollar cost averaging your way down and the stock would have to rebound a minimal amount for you to still make profit on the shares and you keep all the premium you farmed a long the way from either side. I'm sure there is probably something I have forgotten about or not taken account so please leave your thoughts in the comments.,positive
Im going all in,,neutral
Can cathie wood still trust her Feels like she's more and more like a liar,,negative
GOGO is Going to GOGO to the Moon  SampP SmallCap 600 Index Inclusion Will Squeeze the Near 40 Float Shorted Stock,We're Going to GOGO to the Moon  GOGO which is based in Chicago is an inflight internet company that provides broadband connectivity services for the business aviation market.  GOGO is currently working on launching Gogo5G which will deliver 25 Mbps on average with peak speeds in the 7580 Mbps range.  The Why  GOGO is one of the highest shorted stocks with 37.15 of the float sold short. Now you may wonder why this is relevant well it's because GOGO is looking to break through the $20 resistance where it can move up without much technical resistance and it has all the right factors going for it.  The How  GOGO is already up 87 this year and the shorts have been suffering heavily. This is the perfect moment for their positions to collapse. As the shorts will already be looking to derisk in the current market environment it gives the stock an even bigger momentum push.  Speaking about the market GOGO has been going up against it and is green during red days. It's showing what we like to call regard strength.  The Fundamental amp Technical  1. It was recently added to the SampP SmallCap 600 Index so the passive investors are all buying. This is supported by the fact that volume has exploded since. 2. Traders are buying in due to momentum and the high short percentage. Supported by the chart and volume as well. 3. It's currently testing levels not seen since 2015.  The Hypothesis  In my opinion $40 is easily achievable in the short term under the current dynamics and the fundamentalstechnicals. The chart looks like it is ready for a parabolic move.  The Position  GOGO 5202022 $20.00 CALL. Still cheap due to low IV and gives me a month for the breakout to occur. Any positive market day could cause it. it's also pumping today during a fear day which is a great sign.  TLDR GOGO recently added to SampP SmallCap 600 Index momentum is going to cause covering by the high short percentage.  Ape TLDR GOGO TO THE MOON,positive
Tilray CEO Americans want legal weed and we 'need to be positioned for it',,neutral
Walmart DD,Attention retards   Walmart is undervalued. Yes I know its at an all time high. Yes it's still undervalued.   It's chief competition Amazon is experiencing unionization and increasingly poor reputation for quality control of its vendors. It shouldn't take a phD in statistics to divinate which products are scams and which are real but its getting that way and my brain is too smooth for that shit. Walmart's online retail business is growing steadily and will continue to regain share from Amazon.   Stagflation and skyrocketing food prices will further drive sales. People who'd formerly turn up their nose at Walmart and opt for Target can no longer afford to pass over the savings to be had. This is already being demonstrated....Walmart share price keeps inching up even on red days for the SampP 500.   And finally there is simply no other store where you can go to behold the finest of degenerate shenanigans. You'll never see drunk man in his skidmarked whitey tighties screaming at his 500lb baby mama on Prime Video. As entertainment budgets tighten humanity will turn once again to the Thunderdome of Alabama for their excitement.   Have 3.3 of portfolio stake currently tripling position today.   TLDR I like the stupid yellow smiley face buy Wallyworld,negative
Elon just started its the beginning of $TWTR crazy roller coaster. Next weeks will be very interesting,,positive
Guys what to buy today. I'm going to buy the sectors that fell the hardest hoping for a rebound,,negative
ZIM is that an opportunity or am i missing something or going to the moon ,ZIM Integrated Shipping service Ticker ZIM has had a fantastic last few quarters and doesn't look like its showing down.  Its a well established liked by many customers data driven shipping company with employees across the world.  It has crazy cheap Price to Earning 1.48  ratio Its stock price is $57 and its earnings are $39 per share.  They payed out a dividend of $17 per share and they have a fantastic dividend policy.  DIVIDEND YIELD of 32  Crazy Earningsformatpjpgampautowebpampsccdc234a4414aa7be0287fcbdffd3b417b1451e1  Quote  Our Board of Directors has adopted a dividend policy which was amended in November 2021 to distribute a dividend to our shareholders on a quarterly basis at a rate of approximately 20 of the net income derived during such fiscal quarter with respect to the first three fiscal quarters of the year while the cumulative annual dividend amount to be distributed by the Company including the interim dividends paid during the first three fiscal quarters of the year will total 3050 of the annual net income. During 2021 the Company paid a special cash dividend of approximately $237 million or $2.00 per ordinary share and a cash dividend of approximately $299 million or $2.50 per ordinary share. On March 9 2022 the Company's Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of approximately $2.04 billion or $17.0 per ordinary share resulting with a cumulative annual dividend amount of approximately 50 of 2021 net income to be paid on April 4 2022 to holders of the ordinary shares as of March 23 2022.  Unquote  my question is WHY IS IT SO CHEAP  Why is wall street not gobbling this up  a real company spewing cash like there is no tomorrow  ampx200B,positive
TLRY OPTIONS YOLO $7K ON FDs,,positive
Stock Market Outlook SampampP 500 to Fall 11 As Inflation Sparks Recession,,negative
Thoughts on the housing market  equities from an old school WSBer.,ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps8115688377efbb5a6dfe08e54e83e62d1dc928cb  ampx200B  The above image is proof of my old school ness of wsb. If only I could find some JNUG UGAZ screenshots.   ampx200B  Its been a ride. I have lost so much money. I have gained so much more. Back in the old times we didn't know what options were so we were trading off of 3x and holding tsla and amd shares.   ampx200B  What did i do with all the money I bought a house. Its 600k in a medium cost of living area. I still owe alot of money on it. Va home loan. This is what everyone else is doing. The housing market will not crash.  It may correct in the hot locations cali but everywhere else is fine.  The rule of 10s in real estate has not been observed. The rule of 10s state that for every 1 of interest rate increases housing should take a 10 decline. This has completely been disregarded this cycle.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsa4b8a2cc52458e814b5b3312f46d9d622617663d  The 10Yr is fucking parabolic. Completely detached from reality. It will calm down. This will bring upward pressure during the most important time of the year for home buying. Rates will normalize right when everyone want to buy and sell.   ampx200B  Equities are still overvalued mostly in software. But there is still good finds out there.    QRVO  HP  F  VRTX  SPG   INTC  ampx200B  The fucking fed.   I hope some of you new WSB start paying attention to bonds and the fed. It controls the market cycle. Because liquidity is king. The real question is will the fed overshoot us I dont think so. Jpow is smart as fuck. If anyone can soft landing this. Its fucking Jpow. You literately have all of the tendies because of this man.  ampx200B  Its going to be a bumpy ride.  formatpngampautowebpampsc2f94fe7244c6645559da9c516d1701cd1d37f2a  Spy will see 400 before year end. That is max pain and you better have your powder dry because thats it. Start a shopping list now.   ampx200B  ampx200B  TLDR    buy a house when rates normalize.  Leaps from the stocks in the list.  Short spy aka short tsla and appl,positive
DD CNHI is my high conviction play,Listen up apes I got a play for you. Get out your crayons and take notes.  The stock I am going to introduce you to is CNHI. Many of you may know it as a boring tractor company. But step aside Ryan Cohen a new big daddy CEO is in town.  Scott Wine took over as CEO in January of last year and has already placed an Insider Buy for over 3 million worth of stock. He has split up CNHI so that they focus more purely on agriculture now making them a more agile company.  The most exciting part for me is that they just acquired Raven Industries for a bit over $2 billion. This makes them a contender in the high growth high profit margin industry that is autonomous driving tractors and other high tech ag equipment. They are becoming Deere but without the lawsuits or overpriced stock. To double down on this investment they announced 18 days ago that they are going to be building an advanced engineering center in Nevada USA in order to further propel their high tech farming advancements as well as attract talent to come work for them.  Scott Wine is the former CEO of Polaris and he absolutely transformed that company and exploded the stock. Just look I got my crayons out for you guys. The red circle is when Scott Wine took over in 2008. He took Polaris and made it into a global company imagine what he can do to CNHI.  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsb0735c5eacc8fc522dd994dec12d9c2b28ffacdf  To be honest I am getting tired of doing DD If you can even call this that so I'll make this even briefer than I had planned and just spit some other factors that I am bullish about real quick. Ill also tag on some pictures.  CNHI is cheap compared to peers 11.74 pe such as Deere 23.19 and CAT 18.35 and even shitty Kubota 13.7 is more expensive  CNHI beats all recent earnings calls like crazy  Q1 2021 beat EPS by 128  Q2 2021  beat EPS by 57.46  Q3 2021  beat eps by 70.62  Q4 2021  beat eps by 19.48   Revenue were also all positives but I'm too lazy to type those all out look it up yourself.  Coincidently I saw a big ass Case tractor on the way home today and boy did it look sexy. I think this is a sign to buy.  Also this nice little picture shows you how it just bounced off the support line and is about to go up to the MOON  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsfaa91378f7ca62f54150ad56c9cd3b9b537625b9  Also go to raven industries site  Raven Industries  Raven Industries  you will be impressed. CNHI is doing just as much cool stuff as Deere but it's not priced in yet. We are on the verge of an agriculture revolution and CNHI is poised to take the main stage.  Positions I lost most of my fun money gambling on HMHC sad face so I have to play it safer on this one since I cant afford to lose my savings. If you guys give me more DD and conformation bias then screw it Ill get more options. Currently I hold 110 shares 1 520 $15 call 1 617 $15 call.  If I had money to blow I'd buy the shit out of May or June $17.5 calls. Earnings will be May 3 and I expect it to move fast after another earning beats.  This is not financial advice I am probably more smoothed brained than most of you. This is a company that's in the same industry that I work in and I have a good feeling about it.,positive
Tomorrow i am either a rich man or a poor man,,neutral
Elon forgot to do the DD regrets going long on Twitter.,,neutral
Blackstone BX looking good for a repeat performance.,TLDR BX June 130C for $2.60 or less. Exit the trade when BX hits $130 or in three weeks.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps2498f6f5c9f51d043e76d7a2e4c9b2e1a2ff9ec0  It looks like BX is primed to once again hit a technical rally. See previous DD  Most technical analysis techniques look at historical prices to divine future prices. This technical analysis focuses instead on the current Option Open Interest. In other words my crayons taste different.  Whenever the stock price blue touches the delta neutral line green and crosses back up it tends to go another 58.  I developed a tool which uses the entire open interest to calculate three important numbers  Delta Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option delta is 0.  Gamma Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is 0.  Gamma Maximum  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is the maximum.  The theory behind it is simple enough institutions tend to be the largest holders of short options contracts and are therefore obligated to hedge against those options contracts while collecting juicy premium riskfree.  By calculating similar numbers to what these institutions are dependent on I'm hoping to ride their coattails and earn tendies from their rounding errors.  Positions   BX  June 130C at $2.16  Will buy when market opens. Targeting to pay less than $2.60share for the contracts.,positive
TPX Puts  Do I Yolo,I am a retailer of TempurSealy and Q1  Q2 have been awful. Not only are we seeing less customers but we are waiting months for product. Based on the supply issues Im seeing I want to throw some Puts on TPX to expire after earnings. Whats the best way to do that and protect myself just in case my store is the outlier,positive
GOOD Ericsson ,Ericsson Suspends Russia Business Indefinitely Books $95M Provision  Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson AB said Monday that it is suspending its business in Russia indefinitely and will record a provision of 900 million Swedish kronor $95.2 million in the first quarter of 2022.,negative
403b YOLO on Jr. Miners and Leveraged Metals like a 2020 WSB degenerate but dont call me a ,,positive
11 Apr 2022 Short TWTR,Overlaping the TWTR on AMC in the same daily chart shows a very similar trend.  My plan is to short it around $46 0.5 and watch for an extra 5 trade days. Wish it could fall break the EMA 100  $42 or even copy the AMC down to EMA 50  $39.  I'm noob just a small amount to try and record.  formatpngampautowebpampsca563b93675baa1d53dcf160762ccdf3eb2f9e61,positive
Rackspace Buyout,Word on the street is that Apollo is looking to offload its stake in Rackspace before things start getting nasty. Saw almost a 5 bump today so its got me even more intrigued. Any thoughts on if Amazon would still be the major player for this,positive
Twitter Is Doomed  There Is No Hostile Takeover  Even if it was  It's still doomed,Follow up from the last post _is_the_hindenburg_elon_is_the_flame_you  Edit Here's your documents   gt_18   gt   gtpage 160162   gt   gtAntitakeover poison pill dilution  Elon is running an ad campaign for his own companies while trolling hard on Twitter. Everything else is noise .. a hostile take over of Twitter sounds like the most nonsensical thing evernot possible either imo.. if he actually convinces enough people into thinking that's what he's planning Twitter he's not TWTR is doomed regardless see full dd Twitter is going to armor up like you've never seen. 'Poison pill' dilution is gonna tank this thing so hard while Project Veritas is running heavy fud campaigns with ExposeTwitter  The institutions holding TWTR do so for the power it has over consumers in other areas not Twitter's financials or stock  He will never get controlling stake or the employees on his side even if he does no one from the leftthey hate Elon.. and probably the right will ever use it for trust reasons  That proxy war would be lost those institutions are controlled by the swamp and probably the courts and regulators.  Blackrock AUM 10 T  Vanguard AUM 7 T  Statestreet 4.1T  Morgan Stanley 715 B  Should I keep going    Twitter shares outstanding to 100B   Delisting andor reverse split  ampx200B  Elon after Twitter CEO says he rejected board seatformatpjpgampautowebpamps86410611f78980f0253deca69f5bd8c6f61ebf74   Puts for days  Not financial advice.  Retail and institutions may prop up. Manage risk  Update  Musk passed by Vanguard   ampx200B,negative
It does make me want to buy more TBH. ,,positive
Let me get a corner office,,positive
Stuck in a Winning Streak At Wit's End,Fourteen weeks in went 169 for 169 100 Win Rate. Breaking $1K at end of this week but Lambo is out of sight.  formatpngampautowebpampsa026db6a3448419c5bcc9e974f9f254499584830  formatpngampautowebpamps5da9704263c73d61f77a51bb398a51d94b23b4b7  formatpngampautowebpamps5dec869d27a16eebc9f3d8e552e0fb6c1cfdccc0  formatpngampautowebpamps8eca33830bab4b0247a5f652f83fbf8206783cea  Still no Lamboformatpngampautowebpampsd609d52ad777737107169ab76c851ba90ab78b14,positive
$GLD a good bet at this level..,There is a lot of uncertainty in the economic picture right now but one thing is a certain. Inflation is going to continue which means higher commodity prices. What is the ultimate hedge against inflation in the eyes of those that print the money   Gold.       In fact Russia's two back stops for holding its currency up in the eyes of the world are oil and gold. So what do they want more of gold. What does India want more of gold. What does China want more of besides labor camps gold.     $GLD represents a 110.75 of an ounce of gold more or less. There is a little variance in there.  Technical Side      Gold 1.5 yearsformatpngampautowebpamps450bff2c868794f40f38c4efb76c819e62853ca6   The left side of the chart in August 2020 shows 2 year highs that were tested around $2063 per ounce of gold and $195.xx on $GLD. There is very little overhead resistance in the chart above $185. As you can see where I drew the saucer under the current month we are testing that level. Right side of the chart.  In fact we opened at almost $184 before pulling back to a higher lower where it is trading now.  This is super bullish. A close with a higher low intact will mean we are going to consolidate and then push BIG.  Could be a couple days or a couple weeks but it is coming.  Good luck to all you shiny loving Autists.,positive
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 11th 2022,,neutral
 Can I refuse delivery on 50 tons of Egg futures ,So I went a bit overboard with DCE JD contracts. Fresh Hen Egg Futures. I took a bunch of drugs and my friend had a bird and idk why but it made me think a Bird flu strain coming this year so I got a shit ton of contracts.   Turns out I hit the lottery as farmers across the nation massacred their chicken stocks cuz of bird flu. I got in at about 3750 a contract and cashed out at 4400.   I apparently did not get all of my Contracts out and now I have people contacting me saying I need to take physical delivery of 10 contracts. A contract is 5 metric TONS of eggs  I live in an apartment I cannot take delivery of 50 tons of eggs What do I do I made a killing so I can hire whoever I need to to make this go away but can someone help me I do not want 50 tons of eggs coming to my door.  Would it be illegal for me to list delivery address as the nearest federal reserve building  For referenceperspective there are between approx 1174 and 2381 DOZEN eggs in a single ton. This puts me at approx 720000  1.2 million eggs. I am really Stressing out over the logistics of how the fuck Id ship out this amount of eggs to shelters. It would have to be SO many shelters.  EDIT Those of your DMing mecommenting offering to buy my eggs there is a 0 chance Im doing business with anyone autistic enough to use this sub. Somehow we would find a way to both lose massive money.,negative
China March CPI figures are out,,negative
ShOrTs R fUq WeRe BeRs At insert shitty GIF,,negative
In the Coming Months  Everything Will Change,,positive
UPDATE 2 TWTR Boogaloo  Sold my puts today on Elon board news bought calls instead still holding.,,negative
Thanks TDA for a fun time,,positive
We're posting homeowner gain porn now,,positive
Global Hydrogen Expert Appointed Chairman of Advisory Board for Progressus Clean Technologies,Global Hydrogen Expert Appointed Chairman of Advisory Board for Progressus Clean Technologies   o Formation of advisory board will accelerate technology development and commercialization for Progressus technology products  o Pinakin Patel world renowned hydrogen expert named as chairman of advisory board for Progressus Clean Technologies  o Mr. Patels appointment will ensure Progressus technology meets development and commercial milestones through deep technology and supply chain expertise  o Mr. Patel brings more than 40 years of hydrogen and fuel cell experience to the role along with direct core knowledge of the Progressus technology  TORONTO April 11 2022 GLOBE NEWSWIRE  Progressus Clean Technologies is pleased to announce the formation of a new advisory board to accelerate technology development and commercialization of our market responsive hydrogen products.  Pinakin Patel has been appointed to the role of chairman of the advisory board. Mr. Patel is a world renowned hydrogen and fuel cell expert with more than 40 years of directly applicable experience. In addition to his experience he has an extensive industry network has contributed to more than 30 patents and has received awards from prestigious organizations for his many contributions in the hydrogen industry spanning the US Department of Energy the American Society of Mechanical Engineers the National Hydrogen Association the State of Connecticut the Electrochemical Society and others. Mr. Patel was also recently elected as a board of director on the California Hydrogen Business Council CHBC a national level organization consisting of over 140 companies engaged in every aspect of the hydrogen supply chain worldwide as well as advocating for the commercialization of lowcarbon and green hydrogen technologies.  Pinakins network in the hydrogen and fuel cell space along with his expertise and direct experience with Progressus technology is second to none said Channce Fuller President and CEO of Progressus. His appointment to chair the advisory board for Progressus is a catalyzing opportunity for us to bring more and more experience to the venture.  Mr. Patel has an extensive resume having raised more than $500 million in RampD funding for advanced technology manufacturing and application development projects in USA Canada Japan Europe and Asia. His experience is indepth spanning every type of fuel cell and renewable power using a variety of sources including wastederived biogas solar wind and others. Of direct benefit to Progressus Mr. Patel has also supported dozens of venture stage companies in the alternative energy space by arranging supply chain coordination strategic alliances and funding.  As the company continues to progress technology development and commercialization Mr. Patels first initiative will be to fill out the remainder of the advisory board with experts to ensure a successful product launch and market penetration.  The company will continue to keep the market updated on the achievement of additional goals and milestones.  ABOUT Progressus Clean Technologies Progress Clean Technologies formerly AES100 Inc. is a venture stage green technology company focused on the development of novel hydrogen generation and separation technologies.  Progressus Clean Technologies owns the exclusive rights and intellectual property pertaining to the Advanced Electrolyzer System for the production of hydrogen from dilute syngas. Progressus Clean Technologies Inc. is a private company with ownership held by PowerTap Hydrogen Capital Corp.  NEO MOVE FWB2K6B OTC MOTNF Aberdeen International TSX AAB F A8H OTC AABVF and a minority position being privately held. This press release contains forwardlooking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forwardlooking information includes without limitation statements regarding the appointment of advisory board members Progressus Clean Technologies the Advanced Electrolyzer System technology the home power unit and the companys future plans. Forwardlooking information is subject to known and unknown risks uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results level of activity performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forwardlooking information including risks inherent in the mining industry and risks described in the public disclosure of the Company which is available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www. sedar. and on the Company's website at www.aberdeen.green Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forwardlooking information there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly readers should not place undue reliance on forwardlooking information. The Company does not undertake to update any forwardlooking information except in accordance with applicable securities laws.,positive
Stonecold Yolo,,positive
Jim Cramer says big tech is investable right now but just 2 weeks ago he suggested to buy tech tech,Jim Cramer today said big tech is investable right now but just 2 weeks ago he suggested to buy tech tech.  Just look at this screenshot  Imgur The magic of the Internet  25th March   Today ,positive
Making Bank Using Leverage and Options I promise its not as bad as it sounds, If You Had To Point Out The Flaws Of The Stock Market Relative To Other Asset Classes What Would They Be  Theres a long list of them high volatility sequence of return risk low cashflow high efficiency and liquidity this could be a pro or con depending on how you look at it lack of significant leverage etc.  Out of all those things however were gonna focus on two of them. The lack of cashflow and the lack of leverage. Both of these things are abundant in real estate in particular. A good rental multifamily can be expected to have a cap rate of 712 with a cash on cash return ideally around 15 or higher. This is because 1 real estate does not rely upon appreciation solely it relies upon the income it generates from the renters and 2 investment properties typically only need a 20 down payment in order to purchase.  Thats a 51 leverage ratio which would be impossible to achieve safely in the stock market.  Now it used to be that stocks had lower appreciation and higher dividend yields however that has not been the case for 70 years at least.  You can take a look at this dividend yield chart of the SampP 500 for reference.  formatpngampautowebpampsc4d2968767da41b9c7914a3b2fb641edbc6d10de   Luckily We Can Turn The Stock Market Back Into An Income Machine Using Options  This is the whole premise of the thetagang position. We replace our stock appreciation with premiums received from selling options as a sort of dividend yield.  So we turn to selling puts and calls on SPX or SPY or whatever index you prefer. Thats great but if we compare it back to real estate were still missing the essential component of leverage.  Thats where leveraged ETFs come in.  The pros and cons of LEFTs have been hotly debated but what settled it for me personally was this post by hedgefundie and this article about volatility decay If you don't want to read through all of that I've condensed down the important stuff regarding volatility decay and proper diversification in this postswamputm_campaignpostamputm_mediumweb. But basically assuming it works perhaps we can change it from capital appreciation to income generation using options.  Surely that should work right  Well it should if we do it correctly to avoid assignment as much as possible.  Leveraged ETFs suffer from something called volatility decay basically just describing the idea that a when a loss is incurred a greater gain needs to be made to square ourselves back to zero. With leverage we magnify our risk to this factor.  So because we have more vulnerability to downside lets protect ourselves using a bit of probability.   Using Standard Deviation To Calculate Probabilities  Lets just assume for the moment that all market movements are as good as being random. Yes they are based on data but if we dont have access to said data the movements may as well be random.  Under this assumption we can then also assume that there are probabilities to which direction a stock is going to move. There should be roughly a 50 chance that the stock will go up or down at any given moment.  On top of that we could also assume that larger movements are less likely than smaller movements mainly due to the fact that it takes much larger sudden inflows and outflows of cash to make a stock behave that way. Now some stocks have a relatively higher ability to make a significant move in either direction but even these stocks still have boundaries where they will be unlikely to move.  A good example of this how wild Teslas swings are relative to General Electric. Tesla has a higher relative swing compared to General Electric but even Tesla is unlikely to swing to $30 or $5000 in the next year.  Now these observations we just made are the fundamental ideas behind the concept of standard deviation.  Standard deviation essentially says that within a given time frame usually a year a stock has a certain probability of being within certain price ranges based on its volatility its ability to make wild swings like Tesla.  formatpngampautowebpampsad20b147792f9eb6d33617c18bd6d4722b526bc9  As you can see at the bottom of the chart we see that at each increasing or decreasing standard deviation 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 etc there is less of a probability that our data or in this case the stock price will fall into this range given a normal distribution.  If you add up all the percentages between 1 and 1 we get a 68.2 chance that our stock price will fall in this range. This is called the first standard deviation. If we expand out the 2 and 2 then we get a 95.4 chance that our stock price will fall within the range. That is called the second standard deviation. If we go out to the 3 on each side we get a 98.8 chance that the stock price will fall within the range. With each standard deviation the chance that a stock price will fall within the range gets higher albeit at a much slower rate.   So What Does This Have To Do With Selling Options  Using these standard deviations we can get probabilities that a stock will fall within a certain range. If we use something called Implied Volatility we can figure out what the market thinks that one standard deviation is. Then using that we can predict what probability our option has of expiring in the money which is what we dont want.  To find implied volatility we can go to a website like volafy.net and get the implied volatility percentage. In the case of TQQQ QQQ leveraged 3x the implied volatility is 80 at this time of writing.  Using this percentage we can plug it into a handy formula to calculate the standard deviation for any specific option.  The formula looks like this  sqrtoption days until expiration365  implied volatility  current stock price  In written terms basically we divide the days until expiration by 365 then take the square root of that and multiply it by the implied volatility percentage and the current stock price.  That gives us the amount in dollars of the first standard deviation. If you take that amount and add it AND subtract it from the current price it will give you the range the stock will fall within 68 of the time.  Right now we are interested in selling puts on TQQQ without getting exercised so well sell at one standard deviation out of the money. At the current price of TQQQ $51.84 the first standard deviation out of the money would be $38.11 which is also 51.84  13.73.  If we go back up to our standard deviation chart we can see that on the left side of the chart the side that represents our OTM options we can add up all the percentages before the 1st standard deviation mark. This comes out to be a 15.9 that our OTM option will become ITM by expiration you might have noticed that this percentage closely correlates with the delta of the option which is a good way to gauge it as well. If we are selling monthly options this comes out to be getting assigned once out of every six months on average. To me those seem like pretty good odds.  So lets go down to the $38 strike put on TQQQ which is trading $128 per contract right now. Thats a 3.37 ROI in 40 days or 30.75 annually.  If we assume assignment three times a year that wipes out any premiums made for that given month we are still sitting on a 20.64 CAGR.   But Wait Isnt This Riskier Than Selling Puts On Regular Old QQQ  This is the beauty of it you have the same risk of getting assigned on TQQQ as you do with QQQ if you stay at the same standard deviation but still receive 3x the premium. This is because with TQQQ higher volatility we sell further OTM than we would with regular QQQ but still receive the high premiums due to it being a leveraged product.  If you do happen to get assigned no worries Personally I would recommend that you simply just sell out of the position at the current price and open a new put for the next month. The reason why I say this as opposed to selling a call is that calls do not have the same volatility risk premium that puts do and therefore do not sell for as much. If you want to read more there is this paperreprep1amptypepdf which discusses the outperformance of a put writing only strategy that outperforms during bearflat markets. If you open a new put you are simply taking the loss for that month with the intention that the high win rate probability of this trading strategy will make you square again. I DO NOT RECOMMEND DOING THIS STRATEGY ON ANYTHING BESIDES INDEXES if you do chances are that eventually that stock will get wiped out and never recover I'm looking at you TLRY. Indexes on the other hand do recover you don't need to look any further than this chart to prove it.  SampP 500 Returnsformatpngampautowebpampscdf97a8cbe87ba97b5d67e1795a2f51b92feb71b  TLDR Sell puts on TQQQ way OTM instead of buying them. Leverage make put selling go BRRR.,positive
The true WSB way,,neutral
NOK to the moon,I had a dream last night that I was explaining my online trading account to my brother. Everything was in the red so it was pretty realistic and I started scrolling down my portfollio showing him some of the stocks I own.  I then got to NOK. And as we looked at it it went up to $20. I said that's unusual for a stock to go up that much in just a short time and no sooner had the words left my mouth did it go to $40. And then I got interested and it went to $80. So I was buying like a fucking tramp on chips and it went all the way to $254. Stayed around the $250 mark for a couple of minutes and then went back down to about $116 before eventually going all the way back to the start I obviously did not sell in time.  Anyway. I'm not sure of the exact time this took place so I've gone and bought shares off the back of it  937  5.33  Admittedly this isn't the best DD you'll ever read. Equally though it's not the worst.  If you need to tell me this is not financial advice then God help you.,positive
puts on everything always inverse Cramer you know the rule,,negative
Is the market beginning to get liquidated or is this just a dip,,negative
I am EXTREMELY bullish on sex toys. Should I long term invest in sex toy companies Or the materials they use to make the toys,Like it or not the sex toy market is booming and is only getting started    Humans are having less sex than ever     Humans are degenerates we love pleasure if we aint fucking were gonna be using toys. And a LOT of us who are fucking are still gonna use toys. HUGE market here.   Do I make a long term bet on a sex toy company Or do I buy a shit ton of stake in something like idk long dated siliconelatex futures Which is best for maximum tendies Thanks,positive
SPY week 15,The Spy Friday rose as a phenomenal rate and I think it was more than just volume.  Before trading hours we saw the SPY dropping at a remarkable rate. Is this a supply chain issue with China I saw a recent spike in the spread of Covid over the weekend with Chinas hardcore Covid policies Im sure it will affect the supply chain like it did mid March.  How does everyone feel about the week on SPY Is it a PUT or Call week  Currently the SPY is 442.07,negative
Elon going Hostile,,negative
$SPY  Predictions for the week of 411,Last week I said that SPY was going to slope down with nothing crazy that happened except my 5 day forecast got inversed.  The days that I thought would be bearish were actually bullish.    I was thinking about this and noticed how there is hundreds of ways the week could play out  that would result in SPY going down.    I am still going to continue the 5 Day Outlook because it is something funny to do just take it with a grain of salt because it is seriously impossible to predict every single day before the futures market even opens... I write these Saturday morning.    ampx200B  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps27e05d57d4deb60529bae70e73e6937f820f3fa2  The main levels have been the same for about a month now  Support 432  Resistance 452  The RSI is showing the K approaching an oversold reading there will at least be a short term relief in the selling pressure overall  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps590c166936580732ddbcfe55540e897b0827817c  I would classify the bollinger band with as a somewhat mean reverting indicator to get a sense of the overall volatility.  Since the bollinger bands have a relative wide span we can assume that we will likely be entering a phase of lower volatility.    ampx200B  CPI Data Release Dateformatpngampautowebpamps5317e8515c102614e5d3e4562d01e737d38e4a72  Everyone is going to be watching the CPI data when it is released on Tuesday.  Remember that Ukraine was invaded February 24th so all of the effects on the global markets were felt last month in March.    All retail investors will be watching and all of Wall Street will be watching.  This is not going to be pretty...  FAO Food Price Indexformatpngampautowebpampse34b8ef7f7ab646a82ab92ddeb390904aae8bf20  Food prices have gotten to absurd levels this shows how bad inflation has affected everyone.  ampx200B  10 Year Government Bond Yieldsformatpngampautowebpampsf55675378beeee4b52b194fdd5a0e0b08e6c5d43  I saw this chart floating around that shows a historical trend line of the major economic recessions in the United States and how they correlate to to the 10Y yield.     30 Year Bond Yield Compared to SPXformatpngampautowebpampsf3c71b58593de6c7c8bab287a6604785595a46d2  I was looking around and can conclude that the 30 Year bond Yields have more variation but are a better indicator for timing the end of an economic cycle.  There is nothing to be done now I am just waiting.  I still have a lot of positions open when this crash starts I will start to liquidate everything... believe me it will be very noticeable when it starts.   ampx200B  Federal Reserve FOMC statementformatpngampautowebpamps12b1e18659efc463475d55f038f17d0baf6db894  Bullard is concerned for the economy and wants at least a 50 to 75bp rate hike.  I actually found this kind of interesting because he is one of the least corrupt people in office.  He has a net worth around 5 million which is surprisingly low for having inside information.  He also has never worked with big banks and he also assumed office at the top of the 2008 financial bubble when everyone else was leaving their positions.  He definitely knows what is going on and what needs to be done to save the economy.  The federal reserve will eventually have to become more aggressive in rate hikes.  ampx200B  Crude Oil CFDsformatpngampautowebpampsd943fa66e23d9a16dc6745f34c4e1246e88f48dd  Predictions  Tuesday is going to be an extremely important day.  I have seen some analysts saying that inflation could spike to 10.  Oil rose 35 in March reaching a high over $130 per barrel.  I am expecting inflation to be at least 8.5 which is going to shock the markets.    Another factor is that we have never experienced a market crash with as many high frequency trading algorithms that we have now.  The covid crash was not a complete recession but we saw the insane movements intraday on all the indices.  I am fearing that there could be some massive panic selloff which is accelerated by high frequency algorithms in the near term.  The chances of this happening on Tuesday are low but are increasing as each day passes.    The amount of people who are bullish on the market is also decreasing every single day even people on WSB are starting to fear a recession and feel it will be a more likely outcome.  I hate to be that person but over the last year with unemployment decreasing spending increasing and now inflation accelerating... this is exactly like the roaring 20s before the great recession.  No need to speculate that far ahead this is only a one week prediction.  Also I doubt the Federal Reserve would let the stock market crash over 80 without interfering.  At most there will be a 50 bear market similar to 2008.  The stock market will still be sloping down this week except the inflation data will cause some panic sell then it should recover in the following days.    Not professional financial advice do not solely make your trades based on my opinions I encourage everyone to research more   TLDR  formatpngampautowebpamps39172bb2a032402fe4c78d52443440fff4a1a227  I will respond to every comment,negative
Loving the Volatility today.,,negative
Statistical approche of trading options,   My idea is simple and u just need office 365 at least it's more comfortable that way.  1. I get every available daily last price for a ticker. 2. For every day I calculate how a trade would have performed if I would have held for x Days x is the count of days till expiration 3. I choose how far away from the money I want to trade depends on the strategy 4. I divide the number of trades that would have gone in your favor by the number of total trades 5. Done  Example for my current position in $WFC  Setup  I sold a put option with expiration on April 14.  3 DTE with a strike of 46.50$   Currently the stock is 56 above my strike.  Statistics 1   Within the past 6888 trading days $WFC dropped by 56 in 3 Days 280 times   2806888 is 407  gt The statistical chance of being assigned is therefore this exact 407  Delta is currently 0.168. for me that is overvalued although i know about earnings call at Friday  Statistics 2  WFC had it's last high on March 22 which are 17 DTE until 14.4.. At this day the high was 54.18$.  The distance to my strike is therefore 1417.  WFC has fallen by 1417 within 17 days 146 times.  1466888  212  That makes a 212 Chance of getting assigned.  I know things are not necessarily so simple but without special events this is a good statistical edge you can get.,positive
House gain porn,,positive
To the cantaloupe  I mean moon ,,positive
CPI predictions for Tuesday Has the market priced it in,I'll go with 8.3.  I'm curious to see how precious metal producers react.  Also curious to see what the fed says.  Hawkish or Super Hawkish,negative
Gapped up and gapped down stocks  good strategy potential, Does anyone here currently use after market gap analysis to identify stock likely to shift dramatically on market next day open  Here's the basics   Gapping occurs when the price of a stock or another asset opens above or below the previous day's close with no trading activity in between. A gap is the area discontinuity in a security's price chart. Gaps may materialize when headlines cause market fundamentals to change rapidly during hours when markets are typically closed for instance the result of an earnings call afterhours.  Gapping may also refer to the difference or spread in rates at which banks borrow and lend. The dynamic gap measures how assets money held and liabilities money loaned change over time.  Here's a good example from last week  HP Inc NYSE HPQ stock price gapped up 18.6 after Warren Buffett revealed that Berkshire Hathaway had acquired 121 million shares .  This lead to this early jump in price  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps99ec8ea9b665f008f2a57cbfc85a9183636d0cec     You can use sites such as barchart.com to run gap up and gap down stock analysis to identify potential targets for profits out of the gates on markets open.  More often that not a gapup will encourage a 'buy' and gapdown will encourage a 'sell'.  However you need to gauge the momentum behind the stock and trend to decide what is the appropriate strategy to deploy however as a simple start point gap circumstances can roughly be categorised as such  1. A breakaway gap Sell short and place a stop a few ticks above the gaps upper rim. 2. An exhaustion gap  prices pull back into it the next day The downtrend is over Cover shorts immediately. 3. Another exhaustion gap marked by a lack of new highs after the gap Several days of churning offer good shorting opportunities with a stop above the high. 4. A continuation gap in a downtrend Go short with a stop a few ticks above the gaps upper rim. Prices hit that stop a few days later  no method is failsafe. 5. An exhaustion gap closed two days after it opened Cover shorts immediately. 6. A common gap in the midst of a congestion area closed the next day No action recommended. 7. A breakaway gap Go long and place a protective stop a few ticks below the gaps lower rim. 8. A continuation gap Add to longs and place a protective stop a few ticks below the gaps lower rim. The gap at the right edge of the chart could be either a continuation or an exhaustion gap. Relatively quiet volume suggests continuation. If you buy place a protective stop a few ticks below the lower rim of this gap.  In the HP example above this was a breakaway gap with sufficient indicator and fundamental analysis to tell you this was a 'BUY'.  In any case a good solid strategy to nail down and add to the arsenal.,positive
Desperate times calls for desperate measures,,neutral
Puts on the largest bet on WSB,"Remember the largest bet on WSB   Well it seems like there are reasons to be suspicious. And the reasons have its own website cassavafraud.com  Thought that might interest some of you..  Have a look at the letter sent to the FDA  ...  Remarkably for a drug intended for chronic use the Phase I safety study tested only a single
 administration of the drug with subjects monitored for only one week  ...  Of even greater concern safety data from the Ph2a and Ph2b studies cannot not be relied upon due to concerns raised about the conduct of a key investigator only very recently... It is alarming to observe that one of only two 
 investigators common to both studies Dr. Evelyn LopezBrignoni received a Warning Letter  from the CDER Office of Scientific Investigations in March 2021 describing conduct that raises concerns about the validity and integrity of the data collected at the site. While this inspection and enforcement action appear to have been associated with a different but contemporaneous trial it
 implies that the conduct at this site was woefully deficient.  ...",neutral
This guy wont take delivery of his egg future contracts. What to do shitpost,So I've done some work for the poultry industry in the past.  Because of the bird flu scare they wanted to unload a ton of eggs quickly at cut rate costs.  They reached out to me because they know I am on WSB and do some day trading.  I saw this opportunity and agreed to sell some futures contracts.  I ended up selling the agreed upon allotment of DCE JD contracts. Fresh Hen Egg Futures.  Turns out I probably could have sold those contracts for way more than I did but we farmers and I wanted to make sure the eggs would move before they went bad.  I only took a 5 cut and the rest goes to the farmers so every contract sold did ok.  If we held out a little longer we could've cleared at least another 20 or more.  Needless to say the farmers have had to massacre their chicken stocks because of the bird flu.  So this one guy that we sold some contracts to wanted more.  Despite being over capacity the farmers wanted to sell more to make up for the fact they were making less per egg.  The farmers coop accepted his contract offers and we'd make more eggs.  This meant all of us myself the farmers and their kids etc. would have to put in the OT to make sure we filled this order.       Now the buyer of the contracts is saying he was messed up when he bought the contracts and cant take physical delivery of the final 10 contracts because of the size of his storage location.  A contract is 5 metric TONS of eggs.  A tonne of eggs is anywhere between 1086 and 1736 dozens of eggs.  In total we are talking about over 1 million eggs.  How do you buy a contract and not know that you do not have appropriate storage let alone 10 contracts  Also for reference a chicken will lay one egg per day if youre lucky.  To fill this over sized order we were sitting there jacking off roosters for a week straight to get all of the chicken jizz and then had to finger every hen to knock them up to get the eggs made.  If you turn on a black light in my place you'd go blind and I have a few roosters following me around and sending me chocolates and flowers.     What should I do  I need this guy to take the damn eggs.,negative
$BB JOINS CISA AND U APES DO NOTHING ,,negative
This is a blessing in disguise but Im stupid like the rest of yall,Ok look  I know yall are a bunch of autist who only care about tomorrows price action but listen . Yall are getting another chance to buy the stocks you love at amazing discounts . Buying nvidia for less than 250  AMD under 100 FB under 250 and Netflix under 350 Shit disney under 150 These are amazing steals  in my opinion  Like yall fucking bitch and complain about Oh shit I was too late and now this stock is up too damn much or something .   HERES MY PERSONAL experience  Last year when we were talking about if inflation would be bad amd dropped to around 8085 bucks for a long time and I did nothing   then i saw it rip to 160 ish and felt like shit for not buying it around 8085 . OR heres a better one  rblx after its first run to 100 came back down and was sideways at 7080 for a while before running to 140  I again regretted not buying then and now  here it is under 50 .   Now go back to your shitty memories  not your wedding day   Im meaning the feeling of ahh shit i missed out on that rally .   NoW yall see the second part of the title  I think we will probabaly drop more  granted idk how much more could just be a few  or a fuck ton  either way  im waitng for a bigger drop and if I miss the exact bottom  I just hope I catch the rally early on before I completely miss out . Is this a stupid idea ... only time will tell but best believe I have limits set . Like if rblx crosses 60 Im dumping cash in it  if nvidida hits 250 im buying in no matter what . Because fuck me if i miss the bottom but i wont miss the rally .   I am not a financial advisor and nothing is financial advise .,negative
$SAVEing my portfolio,Spirit airlines is a trash company thats in a ton of debt and has recently been offered a buyout of 33$ per share. The price is currently 26$ per share. Im still regretting the choices that lead me to buying HMHC calls but this one seems less like a scam because I didnt read about it from any of you degenerates.  Im not good at figuring out corporate buyouts and the like what are the odds that they take this 33share offer And if so how can I play this   And does saying this require a disclaimer Cause some people might try this as well.,negative
All in on MARA baby. I heard Wendys was hiring,,positive
Jeff bezos and Elon musk discussion about Twitter.,,neutral
Ryan Cohen fighting for GameStop in the metaverse,,positive
$990 to Infinity update,,positive
What I lack in profit I make up in volume,,neutral
Did I really lose $1.2MM by not selling $GME options and going to shares Yes.. did I add more shares and just reload my webull YOLO account Also yes. LFG I WILL KEEP COMING HF,,positive
Me in the office looking at my portfolio today,,negative
played Tesla options last week. 5k to 17k,,positive
Blackstone BX looking good for a repeat performance.,TLDR BX June 130C for $2.60 or less. Exit the trade when BX hits $130 or in three weeks.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps2498f6f5c9f51d043e76d7a2e4c9b2e1a2ff9ec0  It looks like BX is primed to once again hit a technical rally. See previous DD  Most technical analysis techniques look at historical prices to divine future prices. This technical analysis focuses instead on the current Option Open Interest. In other words my crayons taste different.  Whenever the stock price blue touches the delta neutral line green and crosses back up it tends to go another 58.  I developed a tool which uses the entire open interest to calculate three important numbers  Delta Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option delta is 0.  Gamma Neutral  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is 0.  Gamma Maximum  The price of the stock where the sum of all option gamma is the maximum.  The theory behind it is simple enough institutions tend to be the largest holders of short options contracts and are therefore obligated to hedge against those options contracts while collecting juicy premium riskfree.  By calculating similar numbers to what these institutions are dependent on I'm hoping to ride their coattails and earn tendies from their rounding errors.  Positions   BX  June 130C at $2.16  Will buy when market opens. Targeting to pay less than $2.60share for the contracts.,positive
The FED shooting 0 for the season,,negative
Incoming bear market Sure DD x Cramer,,positive
this time I'll trade carefully,,negative
FAANG is back on the menu boys. TQQQ it is.,,positive
GoPro a wartime play,Im thinking GoPro could have potential given things happening in the world and were on the brink of craziness.  I personally am not in depth with their business management or style or what they have planned for the future in terms of development and innovation but this war being technological and highly documented may boost sales  Im not sure where the cameras come from for everybody but given Ukraine is pretty much crowd funding for supplies I wouldnt immediately count them out unless they are just not correlated.  I know they need cameras for helmets for drones and probably other stuff.,positive
Oh Cathy.,,negative
I bought 150 TMV  $88.10  these are tripple short long treasury etf.,ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps4058d8b1ad95f67dfc517e10546fcec12b637431  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps413d5908a268972a9ba50529dcb8b98a8b86b02a  Im am basically buying tippled levered puts on the 20 year plus treasury. This was $5000 in 2008. Today they have been overbought by the FED and are garbage  who wants a 30 year bond that pays 2 when inflation is more than 10. these bonds are trash.  ampx200B  TMVformatpngampautowebpamps52c04f0d12164459927373f9b2cac3a8d651201e  But YTD...  Its traded from 6088$ and up over 43amp37.formatpngampautowebpamps3aa5428b68f83219e00d7dbde51da54b2708a378  But the fun hasnt started yet...  httpswww.federalreserve.govmonetarypolicybst_recenttrends.htmformatpngampautowebpamps8fda45b5f50b6cc19d2113b4148f5149ab76826e  When the fed dumps these... TMV should print... The chart above is almost 9 Trillion.  Because its an etf you can only lose your initial investment  but you are tripple levered short ,negative
Real estate market and the broader economy,I know there will be lots of just short the housing market bro responses but I am more interested in the opinions of the OG WSB autists if you guys are still around. Full disclosure I'm not involved in this market.   Papa powell lowered fed rates to almost 0 during the beer virus and printed paper so there were lots of easy money. This money first went into stonks and the market became too hot. Institutional investors had to find an alternative asset class and it seemed like they went into real estate.   As you have noticed the housing market went crazy over the last few years. However I also noticed this insane price hike is mostly for starter homes  aka the houses for entrylevel buyers getting their first home. These starters are singlefamily housesapartmentsduplexescondostownhouses you get the idea. In contrast my older wealthy friends' gt$1M mansion had seen maybe 300k increase while the starter houses my younger friends are looking to buy increased by x2 or x3.   Investors instead of home buyers purchased gt18 of all real estate sold in Q3 2021 alone Firms like BlackRock has bought 66 apartment complexes in my city  not units entire complexes. I also looked at the prospectus of two REITs Vanguard VNQ and BlackRock USRT and residential is the secondhighest holding in these funds. The top holding is something called Specialized REIT  I wonder if apartment complexes or residential RE holding companies count as such. In both funds' documents they identified increasing interest rates as a significant risk factor. The point is this is just two REITs. There are lots more of these institutional or even individual investors of various sizes buying up starter homes.   ampx200B  With all that said I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on where this is going and how it will end. The following is my speculation and thinkingoutloud so probably not everything makes sense   It seems to me like these institutions are cornering the market by controlling the supply and causing the price to increase and then slowly selling these starter houses to any sucker who would be willing to pay the ridiculous price ... so are they holding a bunch of empty houses waiting for appreciation or are they also renting them out How are the occupy rates   Switching gears  what about the packaging and reselling of these mortgages Anything going on there I know they never stopped selling CDOs after 0809. Like the film ending scene of 'the Big Short' pointed out they are now making 'boutique synthetic CDOs'  and call them 'bespoke tranche opportunity' and there's a lot of activity in product   As interest rates start to increase are institutions gonna fire sale and try to make their rival firms and new home buyers hold the bag I'm not sure of the exact cause or mechanism but if they needed to cooperate and hold it all together they wouldn't  just look at how they handled Bill Hwang's swaps. They all agreed to slowly unwind but right after the meeting when Credit Susse and UBS went to sleep Goldman and Morgan immediate offloaded and tanked those stonks and market in general. That's relatively small in comparison to the entire housing market.   Anyway I would love to hear your opinions thoughts and insights on this. Thanks for reading my rant.,negative
How do I buy calls on poop,,negative
China binds Russian business. Entrepreneurs are switching to the yuan,As stated by money.pl   gt Sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine are pushing Russia into the orbit of Chinese influence.  Economic cooperation is tightening but Beijing plays a dominant role in this arrangement.  Dreams of a big ruble are falling aside.  Russian business is already switching to yuan billing and the Chinese are buying Russian oil and coal for their currency  gt Although Vladimir Putin dreamed of a petrublel and settlements with the West in the Russian currency the economic reality reveals this dream.  It is not the ruble but the yuan that has a much greater influence in the region and with each day of sanctions China's position will strengthen drawing Russia into an orbit of dependence and influence.  gt Russian banks have already recorded a sharp increase in the number of accounts in yuan writes Rzeczpospolita and explains that the transition to the yuan has become necessary for Russian business because of the sanctions.  gt This tendency is confirmed by a poll of the Kommersant newspaper quoted by Rzeczpospolita.  Since the beginning of the year the amount of funds in accounts in Chinese currency has increased approximately eightfold at Tinkoff Bank and fourfold at MTS Bank and Uralski Bank for Reconstruction and Development UBRD.  The same is happening at the St. Petersburg Bank where the number of these business accounts has almost 3.5fold and the number of contracts in Chinese currency has doubled.  gt Russian entrepreneurs are forced to trade in yuan.  The domestic currency is unstable and Western sanctions and Putin's decrees such as the one of March 5 prohibiting the repayment of liabilities to entities from the list of hostile countries in Western currencies make it difficult for entrepreneurs to do business with contractors abroad.  gt   China also has ambitions  at least in Asia  to dominate trade in its currency.  If you add to this the fact that the sanctions throw Moscow into the arms of Beijing's dependence the yuan will rather have a dominant role  confirmed in an interview with money.pl prof.  Dariusz Filar.  gt As Rzeczpospolita points out more Russian companies are betting on the yuan.  Among them are companies trading in spare parts textiles and food products.  The oil steel and mining industries are also starting to deal in Chinese currency.  According to the daily private Chinese companies are buying oil and coal from Russia for delivery in May and June.  gt Russia is falling more and more into the orbit of Chinese interests.  As we wrote in money.pl China is Russia's largest trading partner and although bilateral trade reached a new record of $ 147 billion last year these relations are very asymmetrical.  gt The strategic partnership between Russia and China brings more benefits to the Middle Kingdom than to Russia.  Russia is only the 15th export partner of the PRC.  In addition China has overtaken Russia in terms of trade with most Central Asian countries.  gt The situation is similar in the energy sector especially in the gas sector.  In 2014 after Russia's military intervention in Crimea when Russia received further economic sanctions from the European Union and was isolated in the West China after ten long years of negotiations suddenly decided to conclude a gas contract with it forcing the Kremlin to accept a low  delivery prices.  Autotranslated,negative
Continue to accumulate $PAA units or open the $12$17 January 2024 Call Spread,Below my comments lies a quote from an SA article today written by Samuel Smith. It independently confirms my previous posts for those that were hesitant.  This is not an overnight  to the moon.   This will be a gradual climb but well worth the wait.  For those interested my top 7 holdings are as follows  1 $PAA  2 $ET  3 $NCLH until $25 then Ill sellthats post dilution fair value in my opinion 4 $C  5 $T received WBD shares today 6 $DIS 7 $VSCO  Other positions include $LEVI $VFH $KTB $EAT $VFC $FL these are all very undervalued cash flow amp sales growth positive companies.  While I dont have positions yet I dont hate $FB or $PYPL here.    1. Plains All American Pipeline NASDAQPAA  PAA's strength lies in its welllocated midstream energy infrastructure in the lowestcost U.S. shale basin Permian Basin. In fact it has such substantial scale and strategic positioning in the Permian Basin that Morningstar speculates that  It's not much of a stretch to state that there is a high probability that in some fashion Plains touches every barrel of oil the Permian produces earning a fee if not multiple fees.  While weakness in volumes from the basin relative to supply of infrastructure has led to poor financial results for PAA in recent years demand is beginning to recover in the basin and we expect PAA to be a big beneficiary of this trend.   Wall Street analysts seems to agree with consensus estimates for distributable cash per unit expected to improve at a 7.9 CAGR over the next half decade despite growth capital expenditures set to decline to a mere $275 million in 2022 down from $950 million in 2020.  Management is allocating the extra free cash flow primarily towards paying down debt in an effort to further strengthen its investment grade standing and set the business up to better weather any future downcycles like it experienced in 2020.  Additionally PAA has been allocating free cash flow towards equity unit repurchases  accelerating its buyback pace in Q4  and is also growing its distribution at a brisk pace just hiked its quarterly distribution by 20.8 in an effort to restore it to its precut level.   With an expected 2022 free cash flow level of $1.3 billion PAA currently offers a mouthwatering 16.5 free cash flow yield that covers its recently increased distribution by more than two times.   This  when combined with expectations of strong perunit distributable cash flow growth over the next half decade  will enable PAA to deleverage grow its distribution and buy back units at a very solid clip and should lead to outsized total returns for unitholders. ,neutral
Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt says SampP,,negative
Did I really lose $1.2MM by not selling $GME options and going to shares Yes.. did I add more shares and just reload my webull YOLO account Also yes. LFG I WILL KEEP COMING HF,,negative
Bought SNDL at .66 how screwed am I,,negative
$Tesla ALL IN  Going to hold till after the split ,,positive
$Tesla ALL IN  Going to hold till after the split ,,positive
autistic call options . . . . what's next,,positive
autistic call options . . . . what's next,,positive
If Google Issues No DividendsNo Voting Rights Stock. How Much Would They Trade For,Let's say tomorrow Google issues 100000 Class D shares. These shares confer no voting rights and are forever ineligible to receive a dividend.  Question For how much would you expect these to trade in the open market  My prediction They would trade at the same value as Class A B and C shares. Because when buying a share no one thinks about future dividends or voting rights.  Bonus question Has any public company ever done this  Next Stage Class E shares Same as D but now also ineligible to receive a share of assets in case of liquidation.,neutral
Forgot to sell 76k of 12 DTE OTM SpyAAPL Puts. HFAI,,positive
Whitehouse bracing for elevated inflation announcement tomorrow, The Biden administration is bracing for inflation to continue its historic rise when the March Consumer Price Index is published Tuesday morning. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in Monday's briefing that while we are in a better place than we were last month the administration expects headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike.,negative
BIDEN TO MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT ON LOWERING COSTS AT 245 PM CT TUES,Read the title. It's the whole post  BIDEN TO MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT ON LOWERING COSTS AT 245 PM CT TUES  ,neutral
UPDATE 2 TWTR Boogaloo  Sold my puts today on Elon board news bought calls instead still holding.,,positive
Funds playing dirty about Semi Conductors,Funds started to decline goal prices for semi conductor companiesfirst amd and now nvda.All of a sudden they are worthless the world doesnt need anymore semi conductors.Soon they will say we do not need chips anymore.But the reality is quite different.Demand is still so strong for semi conductors some automative companies suspended their activities due to lack of chips for last 2 years.I dont even mean many other sectors those always need chips and other semi conductor related products.So the reason is obvious why these bloodsucking funds spread this nonsense.Buy low sell high.All they do is spreading lies and taking your assets cheap.Protect your assets,negative
White House says it expects inflation to be 'extraordinarily elevated' in new report, KEY POINTS   The Biden administration is bracing for the Labor Department's consumer price index report to show that inflation is extraordinarily elevated.  The consumer price index or CPI is one of Wall Street's favorite ways to measure inflation. The CPI reading for March 2022 is due out Tuesday morning.  We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.  The February reading showed the benchmark index rose 7.9 over the last 12 months the highest level since 1982.  ,negative
DD CNHI is my high conviction play,Listen up apes I got a play for you. Get out your crayons and take notes.  The stock I am going to introduce you to is CNHI. Many of you may know it as a boring tractor company. But step aside Ryan Cohen a new big daddy CEO is in town.  Scott Wine took over as CEO in January of last year and has already placed an Insider Buy for over 3 million worth of stock. He has split up CNHI so that they focus more purely on agriculture now making them a more agile company.  The most exciting part for me is that they just acquired Raven Industries for a bit over $2 billion. This makes them a contender in the high growth high profit margin industry that is autonomous driving tractors and other high tech ag equipment. They are becoming Deere but without the lawsuits or overpriced stock. To double down on this investment they announced 18 days ago that they are going to be building an advanced engineering center in Nevada USA in order to further propel their high tech farming advancements as well as attract talent to come work for them.  Scott Wine is the former CEO of Polaris and he absolutely transformed that company and exploded the stock. Just look I got my crayons out for you guys. The red circle is when Scott Wine took over in 2008. He took Polaris and made it into a global company imagine what he can do to CNHI.  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsb0735c5eacc8fc522dd994dec12d9c2b28ffacdf  To be honest I am getting tired of doing DD If you can even call this that so I'll make this even briefer than I had planned and just spit some other factors that I am bullish about real quick. Ill also tag on some pictures.  CNHI is cheap compared to peers 11.74 pe such as Deere 23.19 and CAT 18.35 and even shitty Kubota 13.7 is more expensive  CNHI beats all recent earnings calls like crazy  Q1 2021 beat EPS by 128  Q2 2021  beat EPS by 57.46  Q3 2021  beat eps by 70.62  Q4 2021  beat eps by 19.48   Revenue were also all positives but I'm too lazy to type those all out look it up yourself.  Coincidently I saw a big ass Case tractor on the way home today and boy did it look sexy. I think this is a sign to buy.  Also this nice little picture shows you how it just bounced off the support line and is about to go up to the MOON  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsfaa91378f7ca62f54150ad56c9cd3b9b537625b9  Also go to raven industries site  Raven Industries  Raven Industries  you will be impressed. CNHI is doing just as much cool stuff as Deere but it's not priced in yet. We are on the verge of an agriculture revolution and CNHI is poised to take the main stage.  Positions I lost most of my fun money gambling on HMHC sad face so I have to play it safer on this one since I cant afford to lose my savings. If you guys give me more DD and conformation bias then screw it Ill get more options. Currently I hold 110 shares 1 520 $15 call 1 617 $15 call.  If I had money to blow I'd buy the shit out of May or June $17.5 calls. Earnings will be May 3 and I expect it to move fast after another earning beats.  This is not financial advice I am probably more smoothed brained than most of you. This is a company that's in the same industry that I work in and I have a good feeling about it.,positive
USD Inflation surges to 8.5 on an annual basis highest since 1981 according to newly released CPI Report,gtThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers CPIU increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.   gt   gtIncreases in the indexes for gasoline shelter and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 18.3 percent in March and accounted for over half of the all items monthly increase other energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 1.0 percent and the food at home index rose 1.5 percent.   gt   gtThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.5percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase with a broad set of other indexes also contributing including those for airline fares household furnishings and operations medical care and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month.   gt   gtThe all items index continued to accelerate rising 8.5 percent for the 12 months ending March the largest 12month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.5 percent the largest 12month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32.0 percent over the last year and the food index increased 8.8 percent the largest 12month increase since the period ending May 1981.  ampx200B    ampx200B  ,negative
Uranium neuron firing edition,U.UN  for the smooth brains now fuck off before your singular neuron start firing.  I'm at work forced to lay off the sugar so let's try to write something for the one guy whose IQ looped around 0. The guy who is rich as fuck but still get no bitches because he invests like a boomer.  Disclaimer a lot of the information here are second hand from people who are popular but some of the information aren't easily verifiable.  The base thesis  We have a demandsupply deficit. 200m pounds of annual demand 135m pounds of annual primary supply from the ground for a 65m pound annual deficit. These numbers are from UxC which is a major nuclear fuel consulting business. You can definitely model the numbers based on the number of operational reactors and respective output of each operating mine.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsbfa572665dbbce1149ea9ecedc60bebb075241da  There is an unknown amount of secondary supply out there due to Japan's sudden halt of nuclear energy post Fukushima and the sale of the previously stockpiled nuclear fuels. There are also existing inventories as well as the concept of reverse carry trades. The important thing is that secondary supplies are limited they are good for one use and that's it.  When you use more than you receive you will face a shortage. A simple matter of when not if.  On the other side you have the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust SPUT. A simple investing concept where you give them money and they buy uranium U3O8 and store it. From 19 July 2021 they have purchased 36m pounds of uranium. This figure is not included in the 200m pound demand.  The NAV of the trust is a measly 3.5B which really isn't much in the investing world.  Prices have to go higher  Higher prices means more production it's that simple.   formatpngampautowebpampscf545e8081521d68b14c72f0b1c7a991a37678c4  The important thing to look at is the production cost indicator PCI. Current spot prices are $63.50lb vs the $52.00lb PCI.  I started investing in uranium last September. Back then the spot price was $40lb. Indeed the risk has increased but I'm not too worried as inflation is here to stay and miners will like demand higher prices to account for the inflation risk in the next 35 years as they built their mines.  Mines will run out  Once uranium gets mined out of the ground it's no longer in the ground.  formatpngampautowebpamps17c0bf99f61763641dda4c2ca68f2270a60669cf  Prices have to get high to incentivize existing mines to restart and even higher to incentivize exploration.  Similarly you can model these as a lot of the publicly traded companies will report the expected remaining life time of their mines.  Increasing demand  A lot of countries are building new reactors. Here are some of the big ones.  EU was having some luck with France leading the nuclear push in the EU taxonomy but things seemed to have quieten down.  Japan the real OG are planning to turn nuclear plants back on due to rising energy prices and also RUSSIAN ENERGY GO FUCK YOURSELF.    China has plans to build another 150 nuclear power plants by 2035. Previously I wrote a DD about the political genius of pivoting to nuclear energy as there is ample supply that are China friendly.   Kazakhstan produces about 40 of the world's supply of the base form of U3O8.  Russia is 13 of the world's capacity of converting U3O8 to UF6.  Russia is 40 of the world's enrichment capacity.    China is heavily pushing for electrifying of vehicles and a massive nuclear build out because they understand that reliance on oil means getting held by the balls by the US controlled middle east and that they can be easily blockaded. Going nuclear means energy security and we all know China will get something done when they want it to get done.    Russian Sanctions  Russia fucked Ukraine so now America and Europe decides to sanction Russian nuclear. Remember how Russia is 40 of the world's enrichment capacity  Turns out the enrichment process determines how effectively you can use the based U3O8. More enrichment means less U3O8 used underfeeding and vice versa overfeeding.    You can already see the effect of the ban through the nuclear supply chain.    formatpngampautowebpamps7b2c62a5e34dcc056bb284f926e9531c66aaa542  Sprott Inc  Sprott Inc is a global investment manager specializing in precious metals and real assets investing.  Two important products are the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust SPUT and the recently acquired North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF.  SPUT NAV has grown from 600M to 3.5B since 19 July 2021 till now.  Below is North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF's NAV prior to acquisition by Sprott.      Dated 7 April 2022formatpngampautowebpampsb6af78eeb04577b8d4f5baf065d81d88169a3ac9  Important thing is that Sprott is a heavyweight and knows how to raise money for their products.  With both the physical trust and the ETF under their control it's time for them to really ramp up capital acquisition.  Within a week of URNM's acquisition Sprott filed the application for SPUT to be listed on the NYSE.    How to play this  The common narrative is that miners are a leveraged play on uranium spot prices.  Assuming miner has an operating cost of $30lb a movement of spot prices from $40 to $60 would mean...  50 increase in spot prices and 200 increase in miner earnings.  It's a correct line of thought but the issue comes in that a lot of these miners are 35 years from production. During this time they will face inflation risk and ballooning capex costs. If they require further financing they face taking on debt at less attractive rates or share issuance which will result in dilution.  Next the miners price in what they expect prices to hold at. Just because spot price hits $200lb for 2 seconds and you managed to get one off in that time doesn't mean that miners will price in $200lb. The price has to hold for a significant time OR long term contracts have to be signed at those prices.  Lastly a liquidity crunch from QT and a prolonged bear market might result in suppressed stock prices but reactors will continue running and there will still be demand for the uranium metal propping prices up.  The two major producing companies Cameco and Kazatomprom both have their own issues.  Cameco runs the risk of a cash flow crunch if spot prices spike before they are able to ramp up production.   httpsimgur.comauuqzayA formatpngampautowebpamps98683825a6da1ca7eb220251710404959d03db76  Kazatomprom is in Kazakhstan and they had a riot in January due to rising oil prices and income inequality. Guess what food prices are rising and that typically comes with FREE SOCIAL INSTABILITY.   TLDR  The uranium thesis is the only other thing that gets me hard but many miners are going to be negative cashflow for the next 35 years facing potential dilution expensive debt and even bankruptcy.  Hence the risk to reward seems better on physical uranium.  Maybe it's because I laid off sugar for the past two days to type this out but the phrase risk management just popped up next to OH SHIT TO THE MOON in my dictionary.  Positions  Current positions 1000 U.UN shares 30K in Uranium ETF calls. 45k in Denison Mines.  Future Positions Rotating out of my Uranium ETF calls Denise Mines shares into a total 75 allocation in U.UN and 25 DCA in SOXS leaps.    ,negative
CPI predictions for Tuesday Has the market priced it in,I'll go with 8.3.  I'm curious to see how precious metal producers react.  Also curious to see what the fed says.  Hawkish or Super Hawkish,negative
White House says it expects inflation to be 'extraordinarily elevated' in new report, KEY POINTS   The Biden administration is bracing for the Labor Department's consumer price index report to show that inflation is extraordinarily elevated.  The consumer price index or CPI is one of Wall Street's favorite ways to measure inflation. The CPI reading for March 2022 is due out Tuesday morning.  We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.  The February reading showed the benchmark index rose 7.9 over the last 12 months the highest level since 1982.  ,negative
Desktop Metal  The Next Industrial Revolution Continued Apr. 22,Following on from my last DDutm_mediumios_appamputm_nameiossmf shared here on NYSEDM I thought Id share an update as to why I believe this has high potential for a significant shortterm move as well as exponential longterm returns.   Despite the heavy decline in share price postmerger due to dilution and marketwide downward pressure on SPACssmall capsspeculative stocks Desktop Metal remains a highly appealing company  particularly at current valuations.   WHAT DO THEY DO AGAIN  To reiterate my last post Desktop Metal operate in additive manufacturing i.e. 3D printing in almost every area you can imagine and the companys technology is protected by over 300 patents with further pending. The company itself originated from the 3D printing of metal products and their machines are designed to be faster smaller cheaper safer and without needing a trained operator.  However the company has also made and continues to make highprofile acquisitions to further diversify and expand their consumer base. In doing so they have also eliminated essentially all of their competition and gained significant IP and propriety technology security. The company is arguably the industry leader in applications as diverse as fluid power systems metallurgy ceramics and polymers all the way to wood products and biofabrication under its Forust and Desktop Health brands respectively.   The sheer technical ability they now possess is simply mind blowing and scope of this technology is literally infinite. PrototypingRampD becomes quick and cheap supply chain issues can be significantly reduced if not eliminated and the means of manufacturing needs no dependence on location for the exploitation of labor restrictions and costs nor the existence of borders as designs are digital. In addition to this the company manages and operates its own supply chain in over 65 countries.    WHAT HAS CHANGED  Since my last post the company has progressed with strength towards its growth targets and profitability. Desktop Metal and its subsidiaries boast an extensive list of bestinclass customers without disproportionate reliance on any single revenue stream.   Desktop Health launched the Einstein printer along with Flexcera resins perhaps the most accurate dental 3D printer to date and boasting FDA clearance for permanent use. Furthermore this transforms the process of creating dentures and other cosmetics to mere minutes and with perfect accuracy.  The company also welcomed the XSeries line of systems gained by the acquisition of their main competition ExOne in 2021. This system was also adopted immediately by the Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation for use in advanced nuclear energy solutions.  Kimura Foundry Group puchased a 10th system stating that In the first five years after investing in its first ExOne sand binder jetting machines in 2013 Kimuras revenue increased more than 500 percent as a result of the speed and design freedom the new system provided to end customers  demonstrating the impact and desirability that Desktop Metals systems will have on manufacturers and designers along with cementing their repeat business from recurring revenue streams such as maintenance materials and repeat sales.  The company also launched its longawaited revolutionary P50 system after tripling its production capacity with Stanley Black amp Decker as the systems first notable customer of more than eighty in line. Shapeways also committed to more Desktop Metal systems in turn boosting the value of Desktop Metals stake in Shapeways.  CEO Rick Fulop also recently purchased over half a million dollars of DM stock. Fulop is noted as being distinctly protective of the companys future explaining the aggression of the acquisitions made using SPAC and dilution funds. Further to this Fulop has repeatedly stated there is zero chance of a hostile takeover. As such the company recently filed an ASR stating The existence of authorized but unissued and unreserved Class A common stock and preferred stock could make more difficult or discourage an attempt to obtain control of us by means of a proxy contest tender offer merger or otherwise.    FINANCIALS  In the most recent earnings report the company outlined a 123 growth in revenue in the last quarter and up 62 excluding revenue captured by the acquisition of ExOne. They also demonstrated expanding margins for the sixth consecutive quarter. Furthermore total revenue was up 583 from the previous year. The company is guiding for $260M revenue for the current year up 131 from the last annual report. As of December 31st the company has $272.7M in cash and equivalents a large enough runway to reach profitability within five years.    STOCK  The companys stock has spent so far spent 2022 consolidating and is currently looking to settle into its $4.405.20 range after it broke out in midMarch placing it at a $1.387B market cap as of the latest close. This also places it precisely at a key area of demand and support and as such I expect a bounce to retest the resistance at $5.20.   The stock has been met with significant resistance at $5.20 but a close above this can signal a further breakout to fill the gap between $7.19 and $8.01  the average analyst price estimate and a 50 near term move. Such a move would bring the higher range of analyst targets into range breaking into the low teens.   Assuming that the company continues to execute on their planned trajectory and captures even just their small target percentage of the additive manufacturing market the stock is easily worth well into the hundreds within the next five years. Just a 5 market capture places fair value at $130share and I firmly believe that given the barrier to entry that DM have created via acquisitions IP expertise and technology they could capture upwards of 33  working out at about $830 as a long term price target as a minimum. There is simply no area they cannot penetrate with the same aggression execution and profitability as Amazon and I would not be surprised to see this as the biggest growth story of the next decade.      So let me know what you think Im currently holding 5000 shares and accumulating until profitability and likely beyond. The market cap is finding a floor at the companys core value so any move lower is entirely unreasonable and unsustainable in my opinion.,negative
china is buying Russian oil and coal,So i found this info on Bloomberg    It might be the case that the spike of the oil production in Russia it's not only related to Turkey but also to China.,negative
Loving the Volatility today.,So i found this info on Bloomberg    It might be the case that the spike of the oil production in Russia it's not only related to Turkey but also to China.,positive
Loving the Volatility today.,,positive
$SPY  Predictions for the week of 411,Last week I said that SPY was going to slope down with nothing crazy that happened except my 5 day forecast got inversed.  The days that I thought would be bearish were actually bullish.    I was thinking about this and noticed how there is hundreds of ways the week could play out  that would result in SPY going down.    I am still going to continue the 5 Day Outlook because it is something funny to do just take it with a grain of salt because it is seriously impossible to predict every single day before the futures market even opens... I write these Saturday morning.    ampx200B  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps27e05d57d4deb60529bae70e73e6937f820f3fa2  The main levels have been the same for about a month now  Support 432  Resistance 452  The RSI is showing the K approaching an oversold reading there will at least be a short term relief in the selling pressure overall  1 Day Chartformatpngampautowebpamps590c166936580732ddbcfe55540e897b0827817c  I would classify the bollinger band with as a somewhat mean reverting indicator to get a sense of the overall volatility.  Since the bollinger bands have a relative wide span we can assume that we will likely be entering a phase of lower volatility.    ampx200B  CPI Data Release Dateformatpngampautowebpamps5317e8515c102614e5d3e4562d01e737d38e4a72  Everyone is going to be watching the CPI data when it is released on Tuesday.  Remember that Ukraine was invaded February 24th so all of the effects on the global markets were felt last month in March.    All retail investors will be watching and all of Wall Street will be watching.  This is not going to be pretty...  FAO Food Price Indexformatpngampautowebpampse34b8ef7f7ab646a82ab92ddeb390904aae8bf20  Food prices have gotten to absurd levels this shows how bad inflation has affected everyone.  ampx200B  10 Year Government Bond Yieldsformatpngampautowebpampsf55675378beeee4b52b194fdd5a0e0b08e6c5d43  I saw this chart floating around that shows a historical trend line of the major economic recessions in the United States and how they correlate to to the 10Y yield.     30 Year Bond Yield Compared to SPXformatpngampautowebpampsf3c71b58593de6c7c8bab287a6604785595a46d2  I was looking around and can conclude that the 30 Year bond Yields have more variation but are a better indicator for timing the end of an economic cycle.  There is nothing to be done now I am just waiting.  I still have a lot of positions open when this crash starts I will start to liquidate everything... believe me it will be very noticeable when it starts.   ampx200B  Federal Reserve FOMC statementformatpngampautowebpamps12b1e18659efc463475d55f038f17d0baf6db894  Bullard is concerned for the economy and wants at least a 50 to 75bp rate hike.  I actually found this kind of interesting because he is one of the least corrupt people in office.  He has a net worth around 5 million which is surprisingly low for having inside information.  He also has never worked with big banks and he also assumed office at the top of the 2008 financial bubble when everyone else was leaving their positions.  He definitely knows what is going on and what needs to be done to save the economy.  The federal reserve will eventually have to become more aggressive in rate hikes.  ampx200B  Crude Oil CFDsformatpngampautowebpampsd943fa66e23d9a16dc6745f34c4e1246e88f48dd  Predictions  Tuesday is going to be an extremely important day.  I have seen some analysts saying that inflation could spike to 10.  Oil rose 35 in March reaching a high over $130 per barrel.  I am expecting inflation to be at least 8.5 which is going to shock the markets.    Another factor is that we have never experienced a market crash with as many high frequency trading algorithms that we have now.  The covid crash was not a complete recession but we saw the insane movements intraday on all the indices.  I am fearing that there could be some massive panic selloff which is accelerated by high frequency algorithms in the near term.  The chances of this happening on Tuesday are low but are increasing as each day passes.    The amount of people who are bullish on the market is also decreasing every single day even people on WSB are starting to fear a recession and feel it will be a more likely outcome.  I hate to be that person but over the last year with unemployment decreasing spending increasing and now inflation accelerating... this is exactly like the roaring 20s before the great recession.  No need to speculate that far ahead this is only a one week prediction.  Also I doubt the Federal Reserve would let the stock market crash over 80 without interfering.  At most there will be a 50 bear market similar to 2008.  The stock market will still be sloping down this week except the inflation data will cause some panic sell then it should recover in the following days.    Not professional financial advice do not solely make your trades based on my opinions I encourage everyone to research more   TLDR  formatpngampautowebpamps39172bb2a032402fe4c78d52443440fff4a1a227  I will respond to every comment,positive
Funds playing dirty about Semi Conductors,Funds started to decline goal prices for semi conductor companiesfirst amd and now nvda.All of a sudden they are worthless the world doesnt need anymore semi conductors.Soon they will say we do not need chips anymore.But the reality is quite different.Demand is still so strong for semi conductors some automative companies suspended their activities due to lack of chips for last 2 years.I dont even mean many other sectors those always need chips and other semi conductor related products.So the reason is obvious why these bloodsucking funds spread this nonsense.Buy low sell high.All they do is spreading lies and taking your assets cheap.Protect your assets,negative
This is the play Beam Global,just sharing two posts that should be seen by more. OC is urepos39 one of the few that called System1 this past week and currently.  Link 1 original DD _me_up_shortysortnew  Link 2 Update _er_benz_or_bently_34_si_threshold_list_since  Positions 20 May $30 Calls,positive
GME 5k furthest OTM calls yolo,,positive
Leave the market to Market Makers they can have it all,Just have the hedge funds have it all. Let's move to corn fields. They need retail investors to get rich themselves. When retail leave they will become desperate and we will see some desperate moves on their part. Big players gonna cannibalize themselves. They deplepted your 401K's and going after dollar now. Screw them and put your money elsewhere where Market Makers won't be able to touch it. And before that DYOR.,negative
Big BEAR warning U.S. stocks could tumble at any time,It's almost a multiple issue Burry wrote on Twitter 44.48 2.53 5.38. He also included a chart that tracks pricetoearnings ratios for the SampP 500's equallyweighted index. The chart shows that the ratio was below 1.0 for much of the 1990s and 2000s but has almost doubled in the past decade and is now above 1.9.  Presumably Burry would like to point out that the index is trading at almost twice the revenue of its constituents  suggesting that the valuation multiples of America's largest public companies have reached unsustainable heights.  Goldman Sachs 319.78 0.98 0.31 strategist MacNeil Curry pointed out last week that it's not just the 10year note that's worth noting. Yields on 5year and 2year notes are also fast approaching or testing significant longterm trendlines a breach of which would signal the end of the downtrend since the 1982 yield highs.  Burry is best known for his Big bet on the U.S. housing bubble in the mid2000s popularized in the book and movie 'The Big Short.' He also invested in GameStop before its stock price soared in January 2021 paving the way for the Meme stock boom. Last year he also made highprofile bets on Musk's Tesla 986.95 11.02 1.13 and On Ms. Wood's flagship product the Ark Innovation ETF.  Burry has repeatedly warned over the past 18 months about overvalued assets and predicted a historic selloff. Last June he warned that the market was in the midst of the biggest speculative bubble in history.  But he always emptied his Twitter feed shortly after warning of a stock market crash. This was his first tweet since March.  Bond bulls face 'last Line of defense'  Meanwhile bond bulls are facing their own crisis of faith with some media suggesting that the bulls' last line of defense has now arrived. Carter Worth of CNBC said  A logarithmic move in the 10year US Treasury yield shows that it is testing the most important trend line ever seen in any market.  While 10year Treasury yields rose above 2.80 per cent on Tuesday morning before march's postCPI plunge they need to close above 2.83 per cent to mark a break in trend.,positive
I Working You Working WeWorking,  I Working You Working WeWorking  Wall Street Oasis   I don't have a position right now nor have I ever had one but it is safe to conclude that WeWork is a solid buy right now. This is a birds' eye view of the company but I doubt the broader thesis here changes.    1. Share price is 51 down since going public in Oct'20 it's currently at $4.84 and since the lowest it can go is obviously 0 downside is reasonably protected as you're buying it at a cheap discount  good value...maybe they have to raise equity again in the very foreseeable future given historical levels of cash burn but the following note was penned taking atleast a 2436 month time view         2. I spent some time at a few different WeWorks the summer of 2018 in Chicago and felt back then that there was a lot they could get away with. For instance serving beer in the office was an unnecessary expense to incur and so were arranging events with the goal of bringing the community together not only in my experience were these events thinly attended but also noise pollution for those who were actually trying to get stuff done. Obviously these are anecdotes that I am relaying here but the broader point here is that in a way the PR crises that WeWork faced has been good for the company and I think they will emerge with a better balance sheet and more streamlined operating model more below    3. WeWork's focus on location  expense rationalization as well as willingness to extract more from landlords net capex for improvements is I think reflected in its improving operating cash flow. If WeWork needs to amendcancel the lease they should have reasonable negotiating leverage with the landlord to not get fucked over because given this ecommerce boom and consequently the need for logistics  warehouse operations to be closer to the endcustomer in order to minimize delivery and waiting times an astute landlord should have options. WeWork's locations based on my limited experience in Chicago 2018 and Toronto 2022 tend to be located in decently quality areas with good enough foot traffic and nearby amenities. Where it does own properties and wants to sell to rationalize there should not be a shortage of buyers.     4. I personally don't like working in shared spaces but I do think that most people do enjoy them and this is a model that is here to stay. Since WeWork has a firstmover advantage is protected by VERY high barriers to entry and its name is synonymous with office share this will bode well for the company. Plus WeWork should be a good alternative for companies looking to rationalize their real estate foot print post this pandemic  epidemic     5. Biggest upsides to the model though are the expected rampups in the physical occupancy rates and the growing  of Enterprise Members who are less pricesensitive and locked in for a longer tenor. Physical occupancy currently around the 5060 and back in 2018 was around 80. Focus on Enterprise Members is also showing  of members who are enterprise companies with gt 500 employees was 38 and 42 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. It currently is 47 and though less than where it was in Dec 2020 52 pandemic played a role here...   6. Lastly and this is not something that I say lightly that the company already screwed up once in 2019 which led to all kinds of PR crises for its biggest shareholder Softbank and others. They should not screw this again. A lot on the line and so I expect nuts and bolts to tighten as well as bettersound corporate governance to prevail going fwd   At a share price of $4.84 the market is just not factoring these things i.e. not giving them enough credit for their growth prospects. I am not a WeWork scout here and so not trying to act like a telemarketer here but if you're not constraint by investment time horizon this is definitely a buy for the next 23 years if not more.  ,positive
I am EXTREMELY bullish on sex toys. Should I long term invest in sex toy companies Or the materials they use to make the toys,Like it or not the sex toy market is booming and is only getting started    Humans are having less sex than ever     Humans are degenerates we love pleasure if we aint fucking were gonna be using toys. And a LOT of us who are fucking are still gonna use toys. HUGE market here.   Do I make a long term bet on a sex toy company Or do I buy a shit ton of stake in something like idk long dated siliconelatex futures Which is best for maximum tendies Thanks,positive
Loving the Volatility today.,,positive
Loving the Volatility today.,,positive
$TSLA EARNINGS NEXT WEEK,So I was looking through Next weeks Earnings and on 420 funny Number this one ticker caught my eye $TSLA.Personally Im very bullish on $TSLA especially with the Tesla Roadster reservations opening back up requiring a $50000 deposit and the new AWD Model Y with more batteries. I cant see how this can go wrong so my idea is to load up on some calls Friday EOD. I was wondering what your predictions are for $TSLA,positive
6 figure losses in a year  all shares. Damn.,So I was looking through Next weeks Earnings and on 420 funny Number this one ticker caught my eye $TSLA.Personally Im very bullish on $TSLA especially with the Tesla Roadster reservations opening back up requiring a $50000 deposit and the new AWD Model Y with more batteries. I cant see how this can go wrong so my idea is to load up on some calls Friday EOD. I was wondering what your predictions are for $TSLA,negative
Want to fix the markets Support the legalization of onion futures.,My fellow autismos it's that time again. We need to remind everyone of the ongoing fight that is the legalization of onion futures.  ampx200B  DISCLAIMER I do not currently own any onion futures as such would be illegal. Nor do I have any participating controlling or otherwise beneficiary shareholding interest as specifically pertains to the onion markets or currently illicit onion futures markets or any significantly positive exposure to onions in general save from the onions I get on my Wendy's burgers.  ampx200B  For the newer or more uninformed Effective August 28 1958 the 85th Congress of the United States enacted 7 U.S.C.  131 the Onion Futures Act. The Onion Futures Act is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions as well as on motion picture box office receipts which was an amendment to a 60 year old law passed in 2010 but whatever your taxpayer dollars at work.  ampx200B  This is absolute horsefuckery.   ampx200B  What 21st century economy exposes their citizenry to the volatility of an unhedgable and unofficiallyrecognized commodities market  ampx200B  With inflation as high as it is now is more important than ever to legalize onion futures. The American people should not be subjected to the volatility of an unhedged onion market.  ampx200B  Look at the recent price increases of these consumer staples   Meat 14.8  Chicken 13.2  Fish 10.9  Eggs 11.2  Milk 13.3  ampx200B  Want to know the reason that there aren't riots in the streets right now over food prices Because distributors and producers used modern financial tools like futures contracts to protect the citizenry from exposure to unreasonable volatility.   ampx200B  Imagine what would happen to consumer staples without milk futures or meat futures or corn futures or wheat futures or soybean or any number of future markets that allow for our economy to absorb volatility in a healthy way.  ampx200B  Want a real world example of the problems with the lack of onion futures Look at what happened in India in 2017. Unhedged volatility in the onion market caused prices to go from $6.12 per 40kg to over $18 for the same lot three weeks later.  ampx200B  Do you want to have to start paying a 0.50 upcharge to add onions to your burger How about doubling the cost of those onion rings your fat disgusting nononionfuturestradingfingers love to shove down your throat Onion powder What about the antioxidant properties of onions The general health benefits Antiobesity and antidiabetic properties as well as antimicrobial properties  ampx200B  I think not.  All of these positives and more can be found in one amazing little edible bulb vegetable composed of several concentric layers.     Now that we are all on the same page about the foundational pillar that onions form in our society why can't we use modern day financial instruments to ensure consistent pricing despite volatility for all  ampx200B  It is with that rallying cry that I call upon you my brothers and sisters of the bulb. Please help us bring stability to an inhumanely volatile world. You can help in the following ways   Contact your congressperson   Contact your senator   Sign our petition ,negative
Atlassian $TEAM  Ongoing Data Loss Disaster  One week of lost data for customers  2 more weeks to recovery,TLDR  Overvalued Software Company $TEAM Atlassian    2 Billion Revenue  Negative $700 Million in Earnings  68 Billion Market cap  Someone at the company made a huge fuck up a week ago and took down their services. Took them days to recover and now 2 more weeks for some customers and people are pissed. This will make a lot of customers look at competing services. This is been actively discussed on tech focused sites but not yet financial sites. If financial new sites pick this story up it can be a short term disaster for their stock.  ampx200B  Positions   422  $255 PUT  422  $180 PUT lotto  Worst case  my timeframe is not correct. There will be some good earning plays on this one in the future.  ampx200B  Articles  45  The majority of Atlassian cloud services have been down for a subset of users for over 24 hours   _majority_of_atlassian_cloud_services_have  410  Atlassian products have been down for 4 days     410  Atlassian outage lingers sparking data loss fears     411  Atlassian We estimate the rebuilding effort to last for up to 2 more weeks     411  At last Atlassian sees an end to its outage ... in two weeks   _last_atlassian_sees_an_end_to_its_outage_in  412  Atlassian accidentally deleted customer sites says backup restoration could take two weeks   _accidentally_deleted_customer_sites  ampx200B  Stock News Aggregators are not reporting the outage yet         ampx200B  Other Recent Tech Disasters   Last month $OKTA was hacked. Tech sites were reporting it for days. The day financial news sites picked up the story their stock tanked and many puts had 2000 to 3000 gains on that day.,negative
Want to fix the markets Support the legalization of onion futures.,My fellow autismos it's that time again. We need to remind everyone of the ongoing fight that is the legalization of onion futures.  ampx200B  DISCLAIMER I do not currently own any onion futures as such would be illegal. Nor do I have any participating controlling or otherwise beneficiary shareholding interest as specifically pertains to the onion markets or currently illicit onion futures markets or any significantly positive exposure to onions in general save from the onions I get on my Wendy's burgers.  ampx200B  For the newer or more uninformed Effective August 28 1958 the 85th Congress of the United States enacted 7 U.S.C.  131 the Onion Futures Act. The Onion Futures Act is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions as well as on motion picture box office receipts which was an amendment to a 60 year old law passed in 2010 but whatever your taxpayer dollars at work.  ampx200B  This is absolute horsefuckery.   ampx200B  What 21st century economy exposes their citizenry to the volatility of an unhedgable and unofficiallyrecognized commodities market  ampx200B  With inflation as high as it is now is more important than ever to legalize onion futures. The American people should not be subjected to the volatility of an unhedged onion market.  ampx200B  Look at the recent price increases of these consumer staples   Meat 14.8  Chicken 13.2  Fish 10.9  Eggs 11.2  Milk 13.3  ampx200B  Want to know the reason that there aren't riots in the streets right now over food prices Because distributors and producers used modern financial tools like futures contracts to protect the citizenry from exposure to unreasonable volatility.   ampx200B  Imagine what would happen to consumer staples without milk futures or meat futures or corn futures or wheat futures or soybean or any number of future markets that allow for our economy to absorb volatility in a healthy way.  ampx200B  Want a real world example of the problems with the lack of onion futures Look at what happened in India in 2017. Unhedged volatility in the onion market caused prices to go from $6.12 per 40kg to over $18 for the same lot three weeks later.  ampx200B  Do you want to have to start paying a 0.50 upcharge to add onions to your burger How about doubling the cost of those onion rings your fat disgusting nononionfuturestradingfingers love to shove down your throat Onion powder What about the antioxidant properties of onions The general health benefits Antiobesity and antidiabetic properties as well as antimicrobial properties  ampx200B  I think not.  All of these positives and more can be found in one amazing little edible bulb vegetable composed of several concentric layers.     Now that we are all on the same page about the foundational pillar that onions form in our society why can't we use modern day financial instruments to ensure consistent pricing despite volatility for all  ampx200B  It is with that rallying cry that I call upon you my brothers and sisters of the bulb. Please help us bring stability to an inhumanely volatile world. You can help in the following ways   Contact your congressperson   Contact your senator   Sign our petition ,negative
NEGG Infro,Interesting short interest building in NEGG. Borrow Rate also rising. Low float  12 M. Looking to push the share price back down. Not sure if these efforts will hold.  2021 Forecast looks to have been met based on this reaffirmation Q4 but still good info.    formatpngampautowebpampsf2c94e821ac6dfbdf5689b32eb2f508a550a9aa0,positive
Thanks GME $73k Gain,Interesting short interest building in NEGG. Borrow Rate also rising. Low float  12 M. Looking to push the share price back down. Not sure if these efforts will hold.  2021 Forecast looks to have been met based on this reaffirmation Q4 but still good info.    formatpngampautowebpampsf2c94e821ac6dfbdf5689b32eb2f508a550a9aa0,positive
Thanks GME $73k Gain,,positive
Lil bit up lil bit down. Bullish movement on $GME.,,positive
AAL open interest is MASSIVE and in the money,Hey virgins  Im still a bit new to the stock market so please correct me if Im wrong and feel free to ignore this.   Recently someone made a post about EVTL having a high OI that was already in the money. It shot up pretty high. Turns out that AAL is in a similar boat  OI for 18c is 30197 and its ITM now. Does this mean that if AAL ends above 18 tomorrow 3million shares get bought Im gonna take a chance here.   Positions 175 contracts 20.50c exp 422      Edit typo. 3million not 30million,positive
41122 SPY AMD QQQ F Apple VIX Daily TA,    The day before CPI the bulls were fast asleep snoozing the day away while the bears frolicked. After waiting over a month I ALMOST got my 2 red day. If you remember my TA from Friday I was pretty certain today would play out pretty much exactly how it did today. The key on Friday for me was the resistance at the daily 8ema and wicking below the 20 50 and 100emas. We finally got the close below them today. While im not a huge fan of overnight plays on SPY Friday was one of those days.   The bears came out in full action without any signs they were going to stop today. To color me impressed would be an understatement. Today is one of the first days in months that I can remember SPY not closing a single candle inverse of the trend on the 15min chart. What I mean today is despite only 4 candle bodies above the 15 min 8ema there was not a single candle closed above the 15min 8ema which is a VERY strong trend. It is a rare day in SPY world that the trend doesnt have at least one to three candles inverse of the trend on the 8ema above for bearish and below for bullish.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps89e988c2486c9a35886e64c0572dda7db4c7f52f  We actually established yet another downward channel today that I dont suspect to really matter much over night as most intraday channels will end up being negated due to time lapse.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps460f3ed4daf222a62703d594bc51c6a74e98085e  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps4347b8f4c091377d1ce4fba1560a3adac832fe92  We are clearly within the triple red channel still and as I mentioned this morning we broke down through the top tiers support and now are trading within the middle tier. We also established a purple downward resistance line that was started Friday morning. I am not sure if that will hold over night either though due to time lapse.   But on the red triple channel the middle tier support puts us near 436 and resistance is near 441 at open tomorrow. I dont really forsee unless CPI truly is like 9.5 or 10 that we do it but if we break through the middle tier support next support is near 430 to 431.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsb1186f1a49dfdb4c8482bfe6b8db71a3e6c0a15d  The daily chart is something of beauty to me. As you can see we clearly broke the RED upward bull channel and there is no change to salvage that nor readjust it to even convince me we are still in that. Surprisingly we actually broke support of the bearish grey channel too. However I went ahead and adjusted that to look as so now.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampscb628bb79afa7a42f5d89e96ee5161666ca6c136  The daily chart tells nothing but a very bearish omen for SPY right now. Today we not only opened below the 20 50 and 100 ema on the daily 445.21 446.55 and 446.63 but we also wicked below the daily 200 ema AND closed below it. I would be very surprised again unless CPI is some miracle WAY better than expected for us to not retest the 420 to 430 support area at this rate. The MACD is still confirmed bearish and RSI at 45 has plenty of room for downside.   Channel support is 437 and resistance is 451 unlimited upside BUT being that we actually broke this channel today I am not convinced that 437 is very accurate. Price action wise I look at 430 as the next major support for SPY. Of course I dont suspect outside of a terrible CPI that we will see that tomorrow.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps7116303960c6b14d65486a7a6055fe9d2f6ebe3b  Weekly Spy chart is very busy as we continue to search for the channel we are within. However we too opened and closed a full candle completely below the weekly 20 and 8ema 443.96 445.9. The next support for the weekly puts us near 435.3 weekly 50.   Another thing of note for tomorrow is the MASSIVE put OI out there for Wednesday and Thursday monthly option expiration.   Wednesday OI shows literally nothing for calls. 16k at 437p.   Thursday monthly has 15k 445c 55k 450c. Otherwise 121k 440p 66k 435p 113k 430p.  That is a massive amount of OI to the downside thats expected this week alone. With this I would be very surprised not to see downside the rest of the week. Perhaps we could see a relief rally tomorrow if CPI is good but I think Wednesday and Thursday is red with a goal of 430. The 430p monthly OI lines up with the TA I presented earlier too.   With the last CPI being 7.5 expected at 7.9 but the consensus at 8.4 its not quite sue what we will see tomorrow. But with this being the first CPI with war gas prices more covid etc. I have a feeling we will see somewhere closer to about 8.5 to 9. I will be anxiously awaiting these numbers tomorrow.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsd6cb5a86ef7f0a6606d8305928378625e0d55be0  Apple had a heck of a red day today too mostly related to the MASSIVE spike in the 10 year to 2.774 today. I mentioned too on Friday that we should see a test of the daily 100 ema since we had broken the daily 20 ema. I did not however expect it to happen today. However I was able to capitalize on some puts this morning.   Apple now is in an interesting place. Its clearly in the yellow downward channel and broken way out of its grey bull channel with the 10 year rising which will obviously wreck tech. I think It is possible we could see a test of the Daily 200ema again near 158. However my caveat for this is we must get bad CPI. A good CPI and a drop in the 10 year will send Apple soaring again. Apple is a risky play here.   Channel support tomorrow is 157 unlimited downside and resistance is 166.6 which puts us back above the daily 100 ema and daily 50ema. A close tomorrow for apple back above the daily 50ema of 168.6 would be a bullish signal. However if Apple loses 165.54 daily 100ema we can expect further downside this week.   I currently am not in any apple positions as my target for my puts was 165 and I closed them at 166 this morning. Before the small intraday recovery. I may reenter some longer 30dte puts depending on CPI and tomorrows finish.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps815d5abea3eb8fcfa988a512045e85dccccf6818  The blood for AMD just continues but even worse off today was NVDA taking a massive 5.2 hit which I believe it was down around 6 at one point intraday. I actually entered some May 20th 85P on AMD this morning at open. With AMD now breaking what used to be VERY strong support at 100. This 100 support dates back to July 29th 2021 and saw around 7 support bounces before it finally broke down. With the 100 support broke I will be looking for a support bounce next near 7274. This is the next major support which from July 2020 until may 2021 it saw 6 support bounces here before it made its way to 100 support. The next logical place for it to go is the 75 area which is why I locked in an 85p and did 39dte to give me some room to be right.   I am also watching the 50ema now breaking below the 200 ema tomorrow most likely to form an official death cross. This should give it some continued downside.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps656bccd6c7693ffbff25068cf8b80b2484feb77c  Ford attempted to have a very bullish day opening around 2.5 however after a massive daily 8ema rejection I entered a May 20th 15p on Ford. I forsee after the daily 8ema rejection that Ford will continue its downward spiral that its currently in. Next major support I see for Ford is around 12.8 and after that is 11.2.  Ford also has the daily MACD sell signal and a lighter RSI at 38 which could show its nearing the bottom but Ford is very much so a give and take stock that I dont suspect the RSI to be an issue.   Again took a 39dte put to give myself time to be correct but feel comfortable in this position.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps7e647a1487ff5cbb7889db0f47334e17a6429f2b  QQQ saw yet another massive gap down at open today to stay impressively within its current red downward channel. When I wrote the Friday TA I mentioned I was not sure it would stay within that channel but it did some how.   Channel support is 322 unlimited downside and resistance is 342 for tomorrow.   I also am seeing the daily 8ema now breaking below the 20 50 100 and 200 ema which is a bearish movement. Almost with the 20ema now back below the 50ema. I called out on SPY that 420430 was support I suspected. I based that off the January 24th to January 28th price action. QQQ is currently already at that support here at 340 that I called out. That tells me TECH is most likely going to see further lows down near the March 15h lows if now lower. I for see 39 to 330 as next supports for QQQ.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps50292337467bbf1fd1b3d55a377e4955d987401b  The VIX had yet again another MASSIVE day today. From low to high covering 11 from its low of 22.09 pre market to its high of 23.42 during power hour. Overall 23.9 was a major level for VIX to get over but once it did it really stepped out. 24.8 is the most recent high for the VIX seen on April 6th before that March 25th is the last time we saw these kinds of levels but mind you that was on the downside not the upside.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps718eb38d4ea8f47c4467f046cff1e33dd4fed944  When you zoom out on the daily for VIX you can tell we are beginning to wind back up and very well could see the high 20s to 30s depending on what happens with CPI.   Overall I am carrying the AMD May 20th 85P and Ford May 20th 15P over night along with a SPY June 17th 375P YOLO. I think we could very well see some more downside in this market and I while I think playing and guessing on CPI is like flipping a coin bet we see some downside the rest of the week. Even if CPI is expected and we get a flat to small bull rally tomorrow it would not surprise me to see downside Wednesday and Thursday. The market with the 10 year rising 30 year fixed mortgages rising again the inverted treasury yields inflation covid war gas etc. etc. etc. recession etc. etc. etc. talks ramping up is starting to panic again and I think despite people saying April is usually bullish I think we are going to start seeing some more downside over the next month or two.   While some dont think its a great correlation you know what that i cant post the name of... took a MASSIVE hit yesterday and today. B broke its major support and is now below 40k and E broke a major support now below 3k again. With those breaking major supports after their recent bull run recoveries I have a feeling thats the preample to the downside to come. I will be very very interested to not only see CPI but see markets reaction to it tomorrow.   10 challenge  Today was a fairly good day. I had a great morning I managed to play an apple put for 19 a spy put for 20 and a call for 20. I had to carry a very heavy put bag that was down about 70 at open that spiked to 30 around the first big drop to 441.5. With us holding there and not sure if we would see a massive reversal like Friday I took the L at 30. I also played a call and put for 25 then 10 during the sideways chop. Followed by during power hour a two separated 10 puts. Overall intraday trade wise I finished near my daily profit goal however factoring in my L put I carried over and realize the loss on I finished in the red. To be today was a win because I managed risk and loss. Had SPY reversed back to 445 or even not dropped to 441.5 I would have had a fairly large L to carry. Today was a win for me.,positive
Inflation Announcement  My Prediction,Back a couple months ago I made a post about how inflation is a lot higher than reporting and that inflation reporting is time delayed.  Well today is that day those predictions start to come true.  And it's only the start unless the Fed goes hard and fast on taming it which will have other repercussions.  Inflation will exceed expectations possibly coming to 10 annually.    Then the 10 yr treasury yield will punch through the resistance level of 2.8...  And then we will be in a new territory that we haven't been in for 30 years.    The Fed action will determine continued inflation stagflation or deflation.     Enjoy.,negative
Guess I shouldnt have went into semiconductors last week,,negative
Slippin' Jimmy Slips into some Meta  Battle of the Shitlords,ampx200B  Don't Sell Bear Sternsformatpjpgampautowebpampsb70a770db40f46396ba77fc1eee9e0fb22c0ec6a  Inversing Jimmy into Robot Zoidburg. How do you inverse the inverse  FB  a dying company inventing new digital heroin to try and get the kids to come over from Tik Tok.  Jimmy  full retard.,negative
AAL open interest is MASSIVE and in the money,Hey virgins  Im still a bit new to the stock market so please correct me if Im wrong and feel free to ignore this.   Recently someone made a post about EVTL having a high OI that was already in the money. It shot up pretty high. Turns out that AAL is in a similar boat  OI for 18c is 30197 and its ITM now. Does this mean that if AAL ends above 18 tomorrow 3million shares get bought Im gonna take a chance here.   Positions 175 contracts 20.50c exp 422      Edit typo. 3million not 30million,positive
Want to fix the markets Support the legalization of onion futures.,My fellow autismos it's that time again. We need to remind everyone of the ongoing fight that is the legalization of onion futures.  ampx200B  DISCLAIMER I do not currently own any onion futures as such would be illegal. Nor do I have any participating controlling or otherwise beneficiary shareholding interest as specifically pertains to the onion markets or currently illicit onion futures markets or any significantly positive exposure to onions in general save from the onions I get on my Wendy's burgers.  ampx200B  For the newer or more uninformed Effective August 28 1958 the 85th Congress of the United States enacted 7 U.S.C.  131 the Onion Futures Act. The Onion Futures Act is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions as well as on motion picture box office receipts which was an amendment to a 60 year old law passed in 2010 but whatever your taxpayer dollars at work.  ampx200B  This is absolute horsefuckery.   ampx200B  What 21st century economy exposes their citizenry to the volatility of an unhedgable and unofficiallyrecognized commodities market  ampx200B  With inflation as high as it is now is more important than ever to legalize onion futures. The American people should not be subjected to the volatility of an unhedged onion market.  ampx200B  Look at the recent price increases of these consumer staples   Meat 14.8  Chicken 13.2  Fish 10.9  Eggs 11.2  Milk 13.3  ampx200B  Want to know the reason that there aren't riots in the streets right now over food prices Because distributors and producers used modern financial tools like futures contracts to protect the citizenry from exposure to unreasonable volatility.   ampx200B  Imagine what would happen to consumer staples without milk futures or meat futures or corn futures or wheat futures or soybean or any number of future markets that allow for our economy to absorb volatility in a healthy way.  ampx200B  Want a real world example of the problems with the lack of onion futures Look at what happened in India in 2017. Unhedged volatility in the onion market caused prices to go from $6.12 per 40kg to over $18 for the same lot three weeks later.  ampx200B  Do you want to have to start paying a 0.50 upcharge to add onions to your burger How about doubling the cost of those onion rings your fat disgusting nononionfuturestradingfingers love to shove down your throat Onion powder What about the antioxidant properties of onions The general health benefits Antiobesity and antidiabetic properties as well as antimicrobial properties  ampx200B  I think not.  All of these positives and more can be found in one amazing little edible bulb vegetable composed of several concentric layers.     Now that we are all on the same page about the foundational pillar that onions form in our society why can't we use modern day financial instruments to ensure consistent pricing despite volatility for all  ampx200B  It is with that rallying cry that I call upon you my brothers and sisters of the bulb. Please help us bring stability to an inhumanely volatile world. You can help in the following ways   Contact your congressperson   Contact your senator   Sign our petition ,negative
BigBearAi 1.5billion mkt cap loaded option chain,Hello Jackoffs  Been shadowing this sub banked on System inc and I banked on Vertical Areospace. Seems that WSB is back so I'm trying my hand at a DD. Not like I was scouring for a stock saw it on social media and as a trader I can confirm its loaded for a moon mission. Ok the ticker BigBear.ai a cyber security firm with contracts with the US Government as well as in the commercial sector.  Since its a cyber firm the stock could also run on a Russia hack day with extra salt being that BigBear.ai getting picked up my news networks. They also have a investor presentation  good overview info on stuff like them predicting russian invasion of crimea and cybersec stuff cyber presentation link  Ok here it is the float is small like 1m shares small  gtThe Company has 135566227 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of April 1 2022. Of these shares 11001307 public shares are freely tradable without restriction or further registration under the Securities Act. Between February and March the Company repurchased 9952803 shares of their Common Stock pursuant to several of their Forward Share Purchase Agreements. In their own words 'as a result of these repurchases the amount of Common Stock trading freely on NYSE may be reduced which could have a material effect on the liquidity of our Common Stock.' Assuming that the shares cannot be sold back into the market and warrant holders do not exercise their warrants on a cashless basis that leaves the tradable float at 1048504.  ampx200B  Heres a paragraph substantiating forward purchase agreements to reduce float from s1a  gtgt On February 22 2022 the Company entered into an agreement with the Glazer Investors and Meteora Investors to terminate each of their respective FPAs and redeem the associated shares which resulted in the Company repurchasing 5.0 million shares for $50625 or $10.125 per share. These shares were repurchased using restricted cash that was held in escrow at the date of the Merger. In March 2022 the Company repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares from the Highbridge Investors to terminate their respective FPAs and redeem the associated shares. The Company paid $24901 or $10.15 per share to repurchase these shares. These shares were repurchased using restricted cash that was held in escrow at the date of the Merger. On February 23 2022 the Tenor Investors exercised their right to sell to the Company approximately 2.5 million shares which constituted all shares held by the Tenor Investors. As of the end of the first quarter of 2022 the Company repurchased all of these shares using restricted cash that was held in escrow at the date of the Merger.  The option chain is loaded. Current OI  15c alone has 130 of the entire float ITM 12.5c are barely 35 hedged lt10 move in commons would mean almost half the float would need to be hedged when 12.5c go itm. Its loaded.  formatpngampautowebpamps1de5d59e4b989c4be10a5c99cefd4f8a6a752dca  ampx200B  Not just for Aprils but for Mays. Look  at the August calls this stock has moved up a good amount and you have calls trading for IV in the 5070 IV Questionable.  formatpngampautowebpamps2bdc1111c953ad3c6e0aa0be0525dbe0ab0ac73c  ampx200B  Thing that made System Inc so great is because of calls like these When SystemInc exploded people selling these calls most likely naked got blown up and you had that beautiful vanna squeeze IV went from 60 to like 1000.  On the short side I got these pictures from the socials  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsd40fe9b653f026a1243aebab51d2bb35bb3dc5f6  formatpngampautowebpampsaa5cb66806d19e780892564131cb87ed7006f525  formatpngampautowebpamps375c788d4289f033e169791136cb4f75c722851a  ampx200B  So this is wild a 100 increase in the borrow rate in 1day crazy amount of shorting yesterday but the stock is flat and a 800 borrow rate. Just checked stock isn't flat anymore.  Options cheap with low IV sky high short interest cyber and a lot of OI. Btw you can tell the options are cheap not just by the low IV a stock that can move 40 should not have IV in the 60s but by this as well  formatpngampautowebpamps67e3a57d61acf52dc3daba80e1dc71a36e5137b3  ampx200B  So yes this stock is thick    ampx200B  The risk is if the SEC gets their shit together and clears a S1 for the first time in like 3m for a despac.  From watching the stock it  has wild swings yesterday it was down like 510 then up the same amount within a few minutes. Or down 10 AH then the next day up 5.  ampx200B  My position x70 520 15c,negative
AAL open interest is MASSIVE and in the money,Hey virgins  Im still a bit new to the stock market so please correct me if Im wrong and feel free to ignore this.   Recently someone made a post about EVTL having a high OI that was already in the money. It shot up pretty high. Turns out that AAL is in a similar boat  OI for 18c is 30197 and its ITM now. Does this mean that if AAL ends above 18 tomorrow 3million shares get bought Im gonna take a chance here.   Positions 175 contracts 20.50c exp 422      Edit typo. 3million not 30million,positive
90 on entire portfolio since nov last year. 60k gt 7k. Boy I'm bad at this,Hey virgins  Im still a bit new to the stock market so please correct me if Im wrong and feel free to ignore this.   Recently someone made a post about EVTL having a high OI that was already in the money. It shot up pretty high. Turns out that AAL is in a similar boat  OI for 18c is 30197 and its ITM now. Does this mean that if AAL ends above 18 tomorrow 3million shares get bought Im gonna take a chance here.   Positions 175 contracts 20.50c exp 422      Edit typo. 3million not 30million,negative
Who wants to lose money with me tomorrow $22k TLRY YOLO,,neutral
bulls in 2022,,positive
Leave the market to Market Makers they can have it all,Just have the hedge funds have it all. Let's move to corn fields. They need retail investors to get rich themselves. When retail leave they will become desperate and we will see some desperate moves on their part. Big players gonna cannibalize themselves. They deplepted your 401K's and going after dollar now. Screw them and put your money elsewhere where Market Makers won't be able to touch it. And before that DYOR.,negative
Producer prices rose 11.2 from a year ago in March the biggest gain on record,The fed seems to be hibernating.   The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.  The producer price index which measures the prices paid by wholesalers increased 11.2 from a year ago the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis the gauge increased 1.4 above the 1.1 Dow Jones estimate and also a new record.  Stripping out food energy and trade services socalled core PPI rose 0.9 on a monthly basis nearly double the 0.5 estimate and the biggest monthly gain since January 2021. Core PPI increased 7 on a yearoveryear basis.     ,negative
Zoom Video Sucks, Zoom Video is Pointless to Have Around  Wall Street Oasis   I have no position in Zoom nor have I ever held any but I NO IDEA why a company like ZOOM Video is first of all around and if you can make an argument for its existence WHY is it trading at such high valuation multiples relative to companies Microsoft Google Cisco Google that have more compelling growth profiles with the financial wherewithal to pursue those paths and  or either offer a competitive service.  Better Substitutes  Zoom's revenue growth has definitely stalled recently and while the market has revised price for it it hasn't adequately done so IMO. There might be a hybrid model going forward but folks will eventually have return to the office what do you think the large corporates will do with the real estate on their portfolio Working remotely might work for some businesses but in most cases particularly with those that have large budgets creativity and productivity will be negatively impacted and these companies already have better alternatives. Think about banks and law firms which are already using MS Office applications for their staff and would rather stick with MS Team. These are extremely sticky relationships that Zoom will never be able to displace and if Zoom tries to build its product offering it will obviously come at a cost to their alreadymediocresubpar cash flow profile  Financial Profile   The company supposedly offers different products but it doesn't really provide any segmentation on topline apart from geography. If their core product offering was growing they would been making a point of highlighting that  Company segments customers into two parts 1 Businesses gt 10 employees and 2 Businesses generating gt100K in revenue.     36 of Zoom's Revenue came from businesses lt 10 employees. These by definition  of people employed are very small businesses don't have significant IT budget and MORE importantly are most likely very price sensitive. If shit hits the fan this 36 will evaporate quickly        Cost of acquiring these customers generating gt 100K in revenue has been increasing over the years while the LTV  CAC ratio a key metric that you look at for tech companies has just never been compelling enough to warrant such a valuation. For acquisition costs I am factoring in 25 of COGS and allocating 100 of RampD Sales amp Marketing General amp Admin  while the 25 is an assumption for the rest of the cateogries the company states that the primary cost in the other buckets is personnel costs. You can agreedisagree with the exact s here but the thesis doesn't change i.e. LTVCAC is poor and has been falling over the years. For LTV it's the gross margin on these largest accounts that presumably the company has been challenging its sales and marketing efforts towards. An IDEAL  LTV to CAC ratio should be 31 while for this company it's been 0.2 and more recently has trended to 0.1. Sounds great to me. This becomes even more abysmal to view when you understand that bulk of company's stock compensation over the years has gone to sales and marketing folks. Either they are hiring total incompetent staff so their hiring policies are not great or the product itself is so poor and there is no need for it that the sales folks can't really do much. I am willing to bet that it is a combination of both reasons     Lastly the productivity ratio of the company which I define as Revenue  Employee Average Employee Salary isn't great either. Initially it was 1.19x when they went public and though it's gone up to 1.9ish more recently it begs the question if the company's products were THAT HOT why aren't they bringing in more topline especially keeping in view the acquisitions that they have made over the last couple of years to the tune of more than $300 million. Again same argument as before either incompetent staff whacky hiring policies no need for the service and  or just poor capital allocation        I also believe that the company misleads investors and is trying to paint a more rosy picture of its Free Cash flow by not including adjustments that it should make otherwise. Why are marketable securities which are short term investments being classified in the cash flow from investing activities AND NOT operating cash flow sounds more like a working capital item to me. PLUS they re not really factoring in acquisitions only stuff relating to PPE. If you start incorporating all these adjustments you notice that their cash flow profile is just plain terrible  they've gone from a 4 margin Cash Flow  Revenue to an outstandingly negative 40 in 2022    Legal Proceedings  In recent memory I also really can't think of any such TECH DARLING that got ensnared in either litigation or had security breaches happen on its platform since going public this  soon or in a relatively short amount of existence. Think about it if the technology and all was REALLY that good would such events happen These black swan events in my view point to the fact that there is nothing propretiary about what this company is doing. I haven't even looked to explore patents or lack of because the offering is so basic it is essentially Skype that it would be a futile attempt to investigate    Valuation  This just amazes me that on EV  Revenue basis applicable for high growth companies or companies that haven't fully ramped up yet Price to Book Value Price to Cash Flow Basis and Price to Earnings basis the company just trades at a high premium keeping all the above in mind relative to the average of the following analogues Cisco Microsoft Google Amazon Sales Force and has INFACT traded at higher levels since its publicmarkets debut compared to the levels during either the post IPO years for the analogues or since these analogues have come to the market i.e. went public. I know that Amazon doesn't really have a video conferencing platform unlike others but the reason behind selecting it was because it came to the market with something unique that did not exist before yet didn't get the same valuation. Same goes for Google Google Meet Salesforce Slack and Microsoft TeamsSkype. Now these companies excluding Amazon but including Cisco which offers Webex are still not being priced that highly as Zoom is for which the only reason I can think is maybe the regulators break the tech giants up but that is too much time consuming and too much hassle for regulators so I doubt it plus it's not as if these companies will give up their land that easily so which again begs the question and makes me sound like a broken record that why is Zoom being looked at so favorable when it neither has ANY competitive moat nor does it really have a strong financial profile or a track record of executing its goals. Yes it's board of directors and all may be impressive but these are not the folks on the ground running the company.,negative
Saudi Shareholders Reject Musk's Bid for Twitter,  Saudi Prince Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud one of Twitter's largest shareholders rejects Elon Musk's bid.  The Prince's tweet   Still unknown Blackrock and Vanguard.   Story developing.  Edit  Screenshot of the current top holders   ,negative
Hospitalizations and deaths in the UK have surpassed Q4 peaks. Ambulances have 20 hour delays. America is next.,Covid hospitalizations and deaths in the UK have surpassed Q4 peaks. Ambulances have 20 hour delays. America is next.  gtData source  gt  gtNHS trusts in England declare critical incident as hospital admissions near January high  gt  What's the play  Pfizer. They're gonna make a killing selling antivirals. Buy all the lottos.    Abbot labs We can see what happened when the UK stopped testing. Testing is required. Buy all the calls.  Carriage Services Lots of people dying yo. Calls.  Russell 2000 puts. Covid Smell Loss is linked to brain damage. Retarding your population with a virus that reinfects can't be good for small caps. IWM puts  gtCovid Smell Loss Linked To Damage In Brain Study Finds  gt,negative
To the two sitting in front of me on the plane to SLC,Some select quotes  Yeah my wife lets me borrow X dollars per month to play with  I almost made a bunch of money but I had diamond hands.  You don't have to do any research these days man it's all on forums.  All you have to do is time the market.  You guys are the true retards. Thanks.,positive
Bearish on Musk buying TWTR Here's what you can do.,TLDR   Bearish on Musk Buying Twitter Buy TWTR Sep 42 Puts for $4.40share or less  Bullish on Musk Buying Twitter Sell TWTR Puts for more than Strike Price  $54.20  ampx200B  In case you haven't already heard Elon Musk wants to buy twitter. SEC Filing  The offer was stated to be best and final. Whether or not that's actually true is yet to be seen.      Here are the obvious outcomes along with the probability based on yesterday's option open interest   Twitter accepts the offer.      Shareholders are paid $54.20share.      Market Estimated Probability 65  Twitter rejects the offer Musk stays a shareholder.      Price has a small dip but is otherwise flat.     Market Estimated Probability 15  Twitter rejects the offer Musk dumps his shares.     Price falls back to preMusk levels.     Market Estimated Probability 20   Market is currently pricing in a 20 chance of scenario 3 happening. I think that probability is higher especially considering how volatile Musk can be.   I recognize there may be new option buying to reflect the new probabilities. I can check that after 5pm NY time and adjust my position on Monday.   Implied volatility for the April through August strikes are very elevated which reduce potential riskreward on the play.  So I'm looking to buy TWTR Sep 42 Puts for $4.40share or less as I think there's a better than 20 chance that Twitter rejects Musk's offer and Musk sells his shares.  For those who want to inverse me you can sell Puts for any strike above $54.20 so that you can collect the premium and the proceeds from the acquisition price of $54.20,positive
2MM Twitter YOLO. In Elon we Trust.,,positive
What do you guys say about Ford I kept watching it for long time my target price around $24,,negative
INTC YOLO  Already down $15k,,negative
hodl,,negative
tendies,,positive
free tendies,,positive
good boy points gbp,,positive
diamond hands,,positive
diamond hands,,negative
in the shitter,,negative
apes,,negative
apes together strong,,positive
Bearish on Musk buying TWTR Here's what you can do.,,negative
bear,,negative
bull,,positive
bullish,,positive
buy high sell low,,negative
paper hands,,negative
shares plunge by 50%,,negative
shares plunge by 40%,,negative
shares climb by 30%,,positive
Down 90 dollars,,negative
hawkish,,negative
chaos,,negative
ftw for the win,,positive
we like the stock,,positive
autist,autistic autist,negative
bagholder,,negative
retards,,negative
I eat crayons,,negative
"Netflix reminding me to watch don't look up..but all I'm seeing is down","","negative"
"Shorting $SBUX. It burns my soul to see these corporate overlords try to push around these gullible yuppies.","","negative"
"Wall Street Newsletter 1  Stock Market Predictions April  May  June 2022 Sell in May ","   Respected Traders and Investors  ampx200B  I hope you traders are having a fantastic blast since March FOMC 16th. Making the money up in the 3rd strongest bear market rally and then also on the way down. Congratulations guys. You guys are awesome..  ampx200B  But yeah not so much for investors. Things have been crazy lately for people whose investing horizon is less than 2 years. As for passive investors with a time horizon more than 10yrs well i guess they are still cold amp chilly as the weather in Antarctica with diamond hands.  ampx200B  Stocks amp Bond Market Winter  Dividend  Commodities XDformatpjpgampautowebpamps80089cec976ba2ab24f6a6644bca7609815086b2  ampx200B  Its really been a long time guys. So quick recap for those who are new to my channel and what we have predicted so far.  _______________________________________  ampx200B  I said an exit liq rally will come in q2q3 after March 16th. FOMC.  ampx200B  March 16 FOMC aftermathformatpngampautowebpamps823e0471fa1ebd351bdbbab95064b022bf3c8671  ampx200B  I also said that in the last weeks of march there will be weakness in the market and it might last till cpi or minutes in april.  ampx200B  Weakness in the last week of March and Aprilformatpngampautowebpamps4ca5acdce6feccd0e3f774a4b3661ed51484c32e  ampx200B  So far I have been correct. And hey don't forget the most important thing i have been trying to superimpose in everyone's mind by repeating it that in Q4 202223 we will have a recession.  Basic theory  As calculated by 624 months after inversion of the curve   _____________________________________  ampx200B  Also we have been discussing the importance of war in Russia Ukraine  Still going  Sovereign Debt crisis  Lebanon Srilanka Russia after my post  Covid  Do you guys see how corporate people are using their power to avoid shutdown even though CDC is telling to  China Yuan reserve currency  Its happening. Zoltan wrote a great piece about it in his work BW 3  etc in the comments section. I have to say you guys are super smart. I was never expecting that my post would be read by some of the professional people in the investing world. So thank you...  ampx200B  Sorry guys  But im still writing about it. Feels like i'm writing a book on Sovereign Debtformatpngampautowebpamps2d15c634284ac21e019d1c9d26a9b66648bcbba1  ampx200B  _____________________________________  ampx200B  Some other calls that I made   1. My bond bust calls are going well too. Hopefully by June bond carnage will stop.  ampx200B  We talked about this theory technically in Credit Risk Americaformatpngampautowebpamps0462236e78b675bcada45032d33aceb56c96ff86  ampx200B  Personally i haven't told anyone to short bonds cause when some of you asked me I told you it's too late. But do keep an eye on CDS and time it with recession. You could make 201 this time around.  ampx200B  CDS in USA 5yr. These things went up dramatically before Recession and Credit Risk.formatpngampautowebpamps4f5b6695e94926497b60d736e532a852f7ec2785  ampx200B  2. DXY has also gone to $100 just as we predicted as it's a basic Wyckoff accumulation pattern of 20yrs. The only thing that remains is when the FED will inject QE and debase their currency again. I have told this too to some of you in the comments section that i see it happening after the recession not before.  ampx200B  DXY is at $101 now. So you can see how far we have come from.formatpngampautowebpamps0f5b8383acba5e9bf2dcc49046314a59d692cb8f  ampx200B  3. Cash is Haven  Yah i know most people wont agree with this thought. But my readers know how well it's going to hold up to cash.  ampx200B  Why is cash importantformatpngampautowebpamps516bd0e240c9a400bc127209a30b12917053e382  ampx200B  Do you know why I said so  Because I was waiting for an option other than  TINA  Its bonds. That's why I told you all to HODL cash. Now some might argue well how are we going to fight inflation. Well you can't this year but surely in 10yr you can. You just have to look at Real Bond yields chart. They are positive. Meaning investors are keeping an eye on that. And i can sure as hell tell you Bank of America is buying coz they have set their targets 2.35 at 10yr note.  So buy bonds and you get a halfyearly payment on it. And when that payment arrives in lets say Q4 or the 2023 recession. Buy your favorite moneymaking stocks at a cheaper price or Gold coz Gold too falls in Recession. It's that simple strategy. And also pray that bonds don't get obliterated in this coming recession like a 4sigma bubble collapse. I'm betting things will take turns. First bonds then the housing market later on putting pressure on stocks and the word which i cannot speak here.  But the key would be to buy which bonds and at what time  So i would recommend a 2yr  5yr for flipping and 10yr bond as an investment. Time would be May June period. So time it with your T.A. on bonds using Daily and weekly TF. I have given you the month.   ampx200B  Billionaires Buy Zone for TLT  16 May  16 June 2022formatpngampautowebpamps580550c7334322f5df589ea8b9784fa2139579bc  So I think I have given you a rough idea of what we have predicted so far. But as time progresses things could turn but so far it's all going according to our plan.  _________________________________________  ampx200B  It's been the longest recap in the history of the WSB i suppose. But now lets move on from this and take a look at what has happened these past weeks and how are we gonna trade in MayJune intelligently so that we don't get lost in the volatility jungle.  Key events that have happened and some that are coming up   ampx200B  1. Earnings Season   a Bank Earnings   ampx200B  Banksformatpjpgampautowebpamps0c0c03156449b34a2748e2bf00eb3e416059d1ee  ampx200B  JP Morgan  ____________  So JP Morgan kicked off with earnings last week. I must say something seems fishy there with Nickel Trading and their losses in Russia. Just like any other conspiracy theorist i cannot help but wonder that the books are being cooked there. Regardless though i love Jamie Dimon and if you are reading this sir you did a great job this decade. I wish you Happy Retirement early on. Wall Street will miss you when you leave office this year.  Highlights of earnings   gt People have more cash in q1 than q4. I bet some of the people took profits  gt There was a rise in debt by people. And combined credit  plus debt rose 21 compared to last year.  gt Earnings were bad for JPM. Hence EPS low. They suffered some losses in Russia and also the transactional revenue has declined. But they offered share buybacks from May 1 which is bullish. Overall if you are investing in banks it's complicated. But hey some institutions think JPM is trading at a discount of $2030 so there's that.  ampx200B  Goldman amp Morgan stanley  _____________________________  The same was the story with these two giants. Making money. Their traders made a killing in q1. but trading revenue isn't that high compared to last yr. And consumers are still spending like no tomorrow.  ampx200B  Bank of America  __________________  gt Defaults are lower than 2019 levels..  gt Mortgage rate up  gt Q1 opened more credit cards. And they are spending more.  gt Relaxation by China later on in Q2 and Russia situation by Victory Day  They believe it. Not me   So overall i would say we kinda expected this from bank earnings. They didn't beat our expectations by huge numbers and they all took a hit from Russia. Going into Q4 we would see rates yields up and a steepening curve. So banks should do well theoretically. Well they aren't for now. But that could soon change once we get more clarity from the FED. Otherwise we are gonna get a financial crisis on top of a recession.  ampx200B  b Tech Earnings   ampx200B  Next week is so important guys. Stay sober.formatpjpgampautowebpampsaab16fbf1ffe2cb61d39211d069872d813486790  ampx200B  56 mega cap tech giant making up $8T dollar market cap are coming next week. They carry the entire SampP500 on their backs. Lets see how they perform next week. Finger crossed.  But lets talk about this hilarious Dotcomstyle chart from a company called Netflix. What a script it has written. I feel sorry for Bill Ackman that i really wanna invest in it. Kidding XD  ampx200B  Netflix  My Buy entries  White Lines formatpngampautowebpampsc1075ccfc933209bce42e8bb118336abd689c4ce  ampx200B  Lets analyze what happened with it  1. The Advertizing business is getting hit by Apple. It happened in January too with NFLX FB SNAP. And soon Google will follow Apple's path. 2. Inflation man. Its killing the future earnings of growth stocks combined with increased competition from HBO Max Disney and Apple TV which are seriously more good than netflix content. 3. Took hit from Russia Ukraine and Elon Woke tweets. Hence Lost subscribers. 4. Its strategy of pricing power by doubling amounts and flip flopping on password sharing didn't work out as they hoped.  remember those tweets from before   Overall its a consumer discretionary growth stocks and not worthy to be named together with FAANG. I'll go with MANGA from here now  MSFN  AAPL  NVIDIA  GOOGL  AMZN  Meta and Netflix need a break.  Note  Even though NFLX got steam rolled from every part you could think of. But it's soon going to have a pullback from Stranger Things 4 which no one is talking about. So trade well my friends but remember don't get attached. It will fall to $120130 later on is what i believe.  83 crash. Love that number  Could possibly go to $6080 in recession. Would be a good buy then for next 10yrs.  I also wanted to talk about Twitter.  ampx200B  Twitter Bullish Chart if Elon Buys the Companyformatpngampautowebpampsce3fb959b78b6ced3ab95b2fe52ff9294cae0e63  ampx200B  Just by looking at charts from back to December 2013 you can probably see that the company hasn't done anything innovating. Maybe that's what you get when you run a company on Blood money  The person who created the platform is out   So as we all know Elon wants to buy the company because he wants to bring free speech to one of the biggest networking platforms of our generations. He could have built his own social networking media company like Trump did. But he understands the power of the networking effect. Hence he pitched his offer of $54.20  i would look it as May 4 420 means  crazy times at FOMC  and freed up some cash.  So the board of directors can either take it or leave it. But the chart says to me that they don't want to give up a financial weapon and promote free speech. Hence they are taking the poison pill approach against Elon's hostile takeover.  So Elon comes up with an argument and says every board has a fiduciary duty towards its share holders. And it should take steps to benefit the company. So the board decided lets just calm the environment themselves and gave up a holiday to employees who were worried of getting fired by Elon Musk. That just speaks to me of the direction in which the company is headed.  Imo this board either has a magical plan to turn the ship around or they are just too dumb to recognize the potential of this company.  Only time will tell what's going to happen.  ampx200B  2. May 34  Federal Open Market Committee  FOMC   Powell Brainard Daly  President of San Fransico   Summers  Former FED Secretary of the Treasury 19992001  Bullard  President of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis   These 5 guys have eaten the head out of me. Why in the world do we have to keep watching them as they speak.  ampx200B  FED buy sell indicatorformatpngampautowebpamps6a25642d6f292965f23aeb4e5980df53f9f3f0db  ampx200B  Especially Powell guys. I am beginning to think that the FED has lost all credibility. They are being dishonest and rigging the market. Look at Sarah Eisen at FED. She basically asked Powell everything before the IMF presentation and took a short position. She put Powell on the spot by asking tough questions like Do you want the market to go lower and about Rate hikes.  To which Powell replied Ahhhhhhhhh for the first and the second one 50bps is on the table  Markets crashed immediately that day and the day later when reports emerged of 50bps being priced for May  June  July. Just wow.  We went from Inflation is transitory  25bps gradual hikes in March 16 FOMC to consecutive 50bps with faster tightening cycles. And also removing balance sheet accomodation.  Lets look now at FOMC to see if they actually can live up to their word and hike 50bps. If they did well its pretty much priced in and we don't have to care much about the first 100bps but if they went with 25bps. Markets should go up.  Also the FED fund future is now targeting 3.25 for EOY. Lets see how it all unravels. Personally i would watch Overnight repo and Spreads even though last time like in 2018 case wont happen. Because now the FED has a facility watching for unusual rates movements.  Also do look out for the data in USA GDP. 2 quarters of ve GDP is recession.  ampx200B  3. May 6  Jobs report  Like it or not the jobs market is overheated. A wage price spiral started to happen in January report but not so much now. Maybe this report of may could show us that again.  For now I dont think Job's numbers matter much now. More of the jobs added to the current est. only gives FED more initiative to hike rates as they like or talk like 75bps or even 100bps.  But here's an interesting chart that I would like to share that literally no one is talking about.  ampx200B  Recession  Gray U reverse Orange  Wage growth yoy Red  CPI yoy White  FED funds rateformatpngampautowebpamps56caf1fb7c653f47df7600a3495e78e1226ee2a9  ampx200B  I would like to point out two but maybe you guys can find three interesting things in the chart   1. If inflation gt or near the proximity of wage then the FED hands are forced to increase the FED funds rates and cause recession. 2. During the tightening cycle wages tend to decrease downwards later on. This would mean that companies would come under some kind of pressure during this phase of the cycle. 3. Is your H.W. XD  ampx200B  4. May 9  Victory Day  So why is this day so important. Well top professionals say like 1000 crazy but drunk people like me on Wallstreet think that the stock market hasn't seen quite huge a selloff as it should. Maybe the reason behind it is the fact Buy at the sound of cannon and sell at the noise of trumpets rally is going on and its creating an opposite effect to FED put theory  I am sure you must know about Greenspan Bernanke and now Powell put. I dont know how Janet Yellen missed the train. Comments down below XD  This theory is quite simple. You buy at peak fear and you sell at peak greed. Kinda like Bad news is good news and good news is bad news. I hope you all are getting my point.  You can also check historical returns i am sure that would back my theory.  Here's the last time when similar situation happened. And people i apologize beforehand if this chart brings back haunting memories from the past or you have situations related to it.  ampx200B  Afghanistan War  Invasion October 2001  Buy and sell later on bw 5690 days.formatpngampautowebpamps5a0ddd0cc1d788f61feea473a5d469d3258be6e1  ampx200B  ampx200B  This is my current projection. Lets see how this works out.formatpngampautowebpamps61322dc8ec0ff4eaffbbcfe9eb2d35b6de7a2546  ampx200B  5. May 11  CPI  Consumer Price Index   Well I am sure by now everybody has figured out what happens during the CPI and what data we look for. For those who dont know. Well allow me to explain   Nowadays we all know the CPI will come higher.  So 34 days before the CPI the market starts selling off. But when CPI exp. comes out lower then the market starts to go up.  But when CPI gets released there are always some few things that bother everybody and make a issue out of. So the market decides to sell regardless. Buy the rumor good CPI and sell the news CPI and then go up a few days later.  If the horrible CPI comes out then go much lower than we started that up rally.  ampx200B  Oil amp Gas prices moving upformatpjpgampautowebpamps9fffa9d6aca8a970d9b40243b6c5b328def6ee23  ampx200B  There are few metrics that are deciding whether it's a good or bad CPI report  a Core PCE inflation  Well this is the inflation that FED targets cause its from the demand side. Its the CPI inflation minus the food and energy. We need to see it decrease month over month so that we can see the inflexion point in the curve when supplydriven inflation comes down.  b The Headline Inflation  This is the headline number inflation which comes out to scare off the people. This number constitutes the food and energy part which recently has been called Putin Price Hike in America.  Note  The inflation you're seeing is not only from Putin but also from the excess money printing and helicopter money distributed after the pandemic. The value of the dollar has gone down significantly and it takes about 2yrs to see the full effect of monetary policy which you're seeing it now.  So the same case could be made for this tightening cycle if it actually went through which would let us see the bottom of all bottoms in late 20232024. But no doubt you can see some strong reaction rallies in the bear market too. I hope that makes sense.  ampx200B  Closing thoughts   Well now I wanted to talk about how Nasdaq SP500  Russell 2000 and Dow Jones might witness a price action which would take a route using my fundamental analysis with technical analysis.  But sorry guys i'm busy and have to go somewhere. You guys can check out the technical analysis down below and time it with your own fundamental analysis.  ampx200B  SampP500formatpngampautowebpamps7aafafba0f31f7a4e73d3c38204b1942c583aafe  Nasdaq 100formatpngampautowebpampsa8dbcb716f3d60adf7d84b8fc060af6266fdc0b1  But still i might give you a hint.  Case 1   As we all know April doesn't look so good so far. But im expecting a comeback rally in the last weeks of April provided if the tech earnings are good enough that it impresses the investors. Once we go up then sell in may gets activated because you cant get past the extreme risk off weeks till CPI at May 11. But hopefully month over month core pce comes down and then we kickstart the bear market up rally again till last few weeks of May.  ampx200B  or the other thing that could happen is  ampx200B  Case 2   The tech earnings doesn't impresses investors. We go down. More people start buying FED puts for FOMC and it piles up so much that we go down horribly before FOMC. Powell then comes out in the interview and calms everything down. And hopefully we go up again and get slightly pulled off by CPI but then CPI comes good and we kickstart the up rally again to last few weeks of May and sell again before FOMC.  P.s  I didn't feel like writing these past few days. Because my post was getting rejected last time for no reason at all. Its still there and i would like that if you enjoyed this piece of mine. Do check that one out.  ampx200B  Your guide to Q2 USA stock Market  ____________X_______________X_______________X________________X________________X______________X______________  ampx200B  Until next time guys. Keep enjoying life and take a break from the market from time to time because this market is going nowhere. There will always be opportunities. Also share your thoughts in comments down below. What do you believe in where are we headed in May  June period.  ampx200B  With lots of love  Thank you  Yours respectfully  Uchiha","positive"
"Nothing can stop me I'm all the way up","","positive"
"Buy stocks before dividend pay out then get out","P.S.  It maybe a silly strategy. I have not done enough research online.   What if I buy a stock XYZ before the dividend pay out. Own a bunch of their shares. Then get paid the dividend and then sell the shares. Then move on to another suitable company ABC and do the same thing. Do this every quarter.   Please point out the faults and reasoning.","neutral"
"Whats with the hate boner for Bill Gates","This is literally the subreddit where we worship money and find ways to profit off of late stage capitalism. Bill Gates is an exemplar not a pariah.   Also how are you going to suck on Elons balls like he isnt a filthy rich billionaire that hoards wealth just like all the others  Get your head out of your ass. This is not antiwork. This is not a socialist movement. Im just a money hungry retard living in a money hungry world. Fuck your mom.","negative"
"Saying goodbye to my hopes and dreams...","","negative"
"Do you think $DIS is a buy","There is a lot of stuff going on with Florida but they are like a monopoly in the entertainment business. They own tons of real estate to cruise lines. I bought some calls at the end of the day during the dip. I dont think this stock will go under 100. What do you believe and why","positive"
"What to do when Jimmy boi and WSB both hate on Robinhood","Hard to follow his spastic brain but I think he doesn't like Robinhood . Anyways is it time to load up  It wasn't long ago that Jimmy loved $HOOD.formatpngampautowebpampsa9f281a0cfc2fc7d7e618d47b4556a6b77517ce2","negative"
"Thats the power of Autism","","negative"
"that's cap","","negative"
"Better pick....","Any suggestions for the best platform to day trade on My current choices I'm choosing from are TastyWorks IBKR TD top choice or webull. Right now I am using Schwab and want ti make the move to a more trader friendly environment as I'm moving money around for day trading.","neutral"
"Hibernation is over YOLO with uncle Gates","","positive"
"Netflix Confirmation Bias","if you idiots had so many negative things to say that points to netflix free falling after their ER why talk about it after the fact seriously why do you talk about these things after the stock plummets and frame it like you knew it was going to happen you knew that there was a whole bunch of cards stacked against netflix and you knowingly tell us about how you knew about the inevitable fall of netflix after shit hits the fan. shitty shows password sharing was an issue it's gone too woke episodes are released all at once 480p streaming cost of living increased so entertainment will be dropped first covid impact dissipating etc. this was the case for the past for the past 20 years and netflix still delivered. imagine how much of a focus they'll put now after this one YoY sub drop. and of course they would drop when they were competing against the likes of squid game arcane etc. last year when netflix was probably at its highest point.   it just speaks to the confirmation bias of people who highlight all the flaws of netflix while ignoring the pros and painting themselves to be a genius. that being said it's time to load up because it feels like everyone is bearish on netflix. netflix is still one of the most reputable tech firms in cali that attracts the smartest people in the world it still has the highest brand power they are introducing advertising and will aim to tidy up their margin.  r","negative"
"Snap IV crush ","","negative"
"Crystal Ball Gazing","Its gonna be an interesting year with what we see in streaming and social media. Heres my take.  So CNN doesnt get out the starting gates after spending $300M Netflix craters as users get selective on content and subscriptions. Disney drops as they wonder how much compliance costs are gonna go up now that Florida had cancelled their taxexempt status. While on the other hand they try cancel Joe Rogan and he picks up an additional 2M subscribers.   So streaming media will move to adsupported plans and pay by movieepisodeseries. And the next challenge will be to get eyeballs onto the content  But wait.oh crap Elon has Twitter","negative"
"Oh  Bears what is your wisdom on the impending crash","In the one year Ive spent on the stock market Ive never seen as much red as Ive seen in the past week So I call on thee bears what am I to do in the Red Sea  What is bound to get fukt and what is gonna fly Im excited to participate in a crash for once.   Textincasemodswanttoremovethisforlackofcharacterapleasedonttexttexttexttexttexttext","negative"
"NYT Twitters Board Is Said To Seriously Consider Elon Musks Bid","  Expect shares of TWTR to start jumping near $54.20 tomorrow.  Now the sympathy play here will also be shorting DWAC whose only appeal at the moment is a Free Speech social media alternative which is now directly competing with Elons vision of Twitter.   While Truth Social may be ready for a full Apple launch they still dont have Twitters AI Algorithms an android app a web app and talent. Truth Social is Neolithic compared to Twitter and is only capable of chronological timelines rather than adaptive and dynamic feeds. This means Right Wing figures will have ZERO reason to migrate to Truth when theres less chance to have their voices heard because theres no AI pushing their content to the top.   In other words DWAC is dead and Ill be adding to my short position.  Positions $20 DWAC calendars.","neutral"
"VIX in Uptrend for First Time since 2008 2000."," VIX in Uptrend.  2020 and 2018 flash crashes did not exhibit prolonged volatility runups. They were volatility spikes. All major volatility spikes on VIX are followed by a downtrend with intermittent volatility spikes. This holds true the time period of listing.  Going back to '91 there are 3 instances of VIX in a prolonged uptrend. These are 19961999 20072008 and now in 2022.  When the 19.34 resistance on VIX becomes support it is typically followed by a long period of volatility and a bear market. 19.34 on VIX is clearly a critical resistancesupport mark for major market events.  If you wanna play with a copy of my chart I think you can do that by viewing it on TradingView.  ","positive"
"As the market tanks so does the precious metal market but like in 2008 and 2020 it will bounce HARD and we can easily corner the silver market...heres how","12 million of us here right Following me so far Good  If all 12 million of us bought 160 ounces of silver we would literally drain the entire 2 billion ounce bullion supply above ground in the ENTIRE WORLD   I'll say that again THE ENTIRE WORLD SUPPLY  But we don't even have to buy that much because the figure of 2 billion ounces of above ground silver includes state reserves. We could buy 25 to 50 ounces each and send silver straight to the fucking moon   $2025 Oz$500 each spot plus physical premium I know you have $500 to play with  But for the love of god DONT PLAY THE COMEX PAPER SILVER GAME   Buy physical silver and hold it. I understand that early on we were against silver because we thought it was just shills trying to divert us away from AMC and GME plays but this is THE play right now. Heres why...  After the 2008 financial crisis silver saw a nearly 50 dip in silver prices then a 5x rise shortly after in 2020 we saw a 25 drop in prices followed SWIFTLY by a 2x rise in prices and that was without anyone trying to corner the market.   We can be the next hunt brothers and go down in history  Let's go full on rtard on silver this time...its really not even that much money.  MC²","positive"
"THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS HOLDING.","In this day and age it feels as though holding is fruitless.  With everyone trying to Fly to the Moon and take their Profits it's becoming to feel very bad.  I feel as tho with this current sentiment and with a snowball effect we will be heading into a BEAR RUN. So to everyone who bought at the Highs and are still Bag Holding.You will be holding for a very long ass time.  DISCUSS","negative"
"What actually happens when someone joins WSB and yolo their life savings on one bet..","","negative"
"Get ready to yolo boys ","","positive"
"I asked her to send me the money in the form of GME shares via ComputerShare. Another $2.5 million worth of shares locked in the float bitches","","positive"
"Musk is Moving on... from the playing nice with Gates. He's going to short $MSFT and TWTR .","","negative"
"Want to connect to people who would like to improve their current investment research process","We are a startup team building a nextgeneration product to equip retail investors with strong investment research tools to compete with the instituion  Currently we are doing research about the retail investor's satisfaction with the financial information from the current product in the market like seeking alpha wsj traditional news platform etc.  If you are not satisfied with the feature you are currently using leave your comment below and we will contact you Let's make your dream product come true","neutral"
"Risky Options  Part 12","","negative"
"Hibernation is over YOLO with uncle Gates","","positive"
"This is me","","neutral"
"Recessiondepression coming","What are folks predictions on when we will sink into formal recessiondepression and how low markets will fall Oil inflation snowballed into greedbased inflation housing and tech bubbles are bursting tons of people still out of work whose unemployment benefits have run out and cant pay for rent or goods credit medical and student loan debt crises continue to pile","negative"
"Pepedreams","","neutral"
"UVXY Triple Bottom","Position 1658 shares  Looks like a triple bottom over the last two months right around $11.80 and $12.00. Any thoughts on whether this is the case andor what price to sell at Some silly internet article told me to fins the trend line price and take the difference between the bottom and trend line price and add that to trend line price to find profit taking price. But I am simple man. Trend line Trend line Are you kidding me  Other trades Calls on NJ Transitnot sure it can get worse.   UVXY Chart","negative"
"When youre trying to be included is ESG investment firms","","neutral"
"Mickey Mouse leads an army thats larger and more devoted than most sovereign nations. Never bet against masses of stupid people","","positive"
"Concept of Dividend and return of capital.","Hi I am new to the finance and learning the concept of dividends and capital return. I am taking the free course in CFI on fundamental of corporate financing. They have concept which indicates that share buyback is also the return of capital can any one explain this how is it return of capital. Does it mean share buyback from the initial investor or for example I know that apple has announced their share buyback in their earnings. Does it mean apply bought their share from the secondary market or is it from the preferred share holder. Can some one ELI5. Thanks","neutral"
"About every meta holder right now","","negative"
"Average down ","","negative"
"12 Million 12 Million 12 Million Monkeys","","negative"
"Netflix reminding me to watch don't look up..but all I'm seeing is down","","negative"
"Twitter Put holders this 8AM EST vs 230PM EST","","neutral"
"Want to see inflation in Australia","$6 for a bag of chips.. bro...     The federally mandated minimum wage in the United States is 7.25 U.S. dollars per hour although the minimum wage varies from state to state  Thats right folks for 1 hour of your wage slaving you get a bag of chips","negative"
"Degenerates I have good news for you","","negative"
"A meme for those who've seen their accounts tank over the past few weeks","","neutral"
"Is this the plan for Monday Fcking Bill Gates' $TSLA short","","neutral"
"If Netflix enforces this expect that 2 million subscriber loss to be a colossal understatement.","ampx200B  Netflix reportedly updated their terms with this gem. No idea how this will be enforced in an age of mobile data but I can't imagine this boding well.formatpjpgampautowebpamps5bf407dda9b1f44411e6c734c1d6e3684fb323ea","negative"
"Calls on shitting with the door open","I remember in University my roommate Kate would shit with the door open. I know this because sometimes when I came home I would hear a squeal then the bathroom door would slam shut. I found it strange and always wondered if it was just carelessness or some sort of exhibitionist tendencies especially since I didnt have a carefully defined routine and could return home at any moment. Now living with my wife and her boyfriend I think I understand. When they are at work I find it both liberating and an expression that allows me to embrace the joy of solitude. In case youre wondering Im currently shitting with the door open. Just this once.  Also my positions are June puts on Lucid and Mullen automative. And feet on the toilet bowl to stop my legs going to sleep.","neutral"
"Linked my broker to Google sheets","","positive"
"Linked my broker to Google sheets","","positive"
"So close to the 5yr old price NFLX","","negative"
"IV crush","So Im trying to understand if Im at risk of IV crush if I hold my puts past facebooks earnings this week.  Right now IV is around 67   I looked here for metas IV history.    optionstrategist.comcalculatorsfreevolatilitydata   I'm looking at FB IV data. hv20  hv50 hv100    DATE   curiv DaysPercentile Close  FB                             47      48    65        220422   67.22   600 99ile    184.11  20 day avg is 47 50 day avg is 48 and last 100 day avg is 65  If I'm reading this right its a bit elevated but its around the 100 day avg. Which would seem to imply that IV isn't overly inflated for upcoming earnings So is it an unreasonable expectation that I wont get IV crushed   I dont think its going to have any surprises that will drive stock price higher.  I know the price is pretty beaten down and at best it trades sideways post earnings like snap did.     Any thoughts on the iv Am I wrong looking at that data Does anyone have another source to check","negative"
"thoughts on 3m","Hey all I have $10k left to my name then I'm out on the street or have to sell my kids to a coal mine. Possibly both. But I have faith in the users of this sub.  I was wondering if anyone has a thought on 3M Their earnings are coming out on Tuesday and they have been rocked by some major losses in the 3M earplug lawsuit. Do you think 3M could take a dive","negative"
"Which one of you retards lost this found it behind the macdonalds","","negative"
"Saying goodbye to my hopes and dreams...","","negative"
"Tomorrow is 75 on my portfolio  Wake me up in a week for my $FB tendies ","","negative"
"Nutrien $NTR They help make your food now they help make you money","Hi everyone I have recently entered into a call position on Nutrien $NTR due to technicals and macro news. First a little bit of background Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash nitrogen phosphate and sulfate products and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients crop protection products seeds and merchandise products. Basically Nutrien provides a lot of fertilizer needed for industrial scale farming. They are a sizeable company with a market cap of nearly 60 billion and they also pay close to a 2 dividend. The dividend is not why im in this stock however. Im in it mainly for the technical set up.  Daily chartformatpngampautowebpamps744c2bb071e5a5e840028ade5909b741d68eaa1a  First of all Nutrien has seen a drop as of recent. This is most likely a result of the massive run up it has been having since feb. The stock has now bounced on the 50 ema and 38.2 retracement from the run up. This leaves the stock on good grounds to resume its rally.  Hourly chartformatpngampautowebpamps74310544ad8a304f994e5a6b5ddbb5792e09c391  Now looking at the hourly chart the stock is on the cusp of breaking through resistance almost did today but market dropped eod. It is also on the verge of filling a gap of nearly 2.5 which can happen in a days span. Combined with the fact that earnings are around the corner Nutrien is poised to pop. One final thing to mention is being a fertilizer company they stand to benefit from the fertilizer shortage as im sure their pricing has increased. There is also higher demand as crop prices have increased and farming season is underway. That being said I believe they will crush ER.  The June 17 option chain has $200mil or more of OI on the call side. There is 30k OI $15mil on the 105 strike alone. To me this means that a lot of big money is just parked for a rally.  Positions 0617 105C following the money on this one","positive"
"Trust Me Bro","","neutral"
"how's that $20 a month set aside for college doing Granny","","negative"
"Cathie Wood is 48 YTD and is partying in the Bahamas.","","neutral"
"Mother of all porn losses","Archegos founder Bill Hwang arrested on US fraud charges  Archegoss collapse caused billions of dollars of losses for investment banks including Credit Suisse UBS Nomura and Morgan Stanley after it defaulted on margin calls with more than $100bn wiped from the valuations of nearly a dozen companies as Archegoss positions were unwound.  The group used borrowed money from banks such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse to amass multibilliondollar positions in USlisted companies such as ViacomCBS  now known as Paramount  and online retailers Shopify and Farfetch. By using derivatives where the bank it traded with bought or sold stocks on Archegoss behalf the firm left no visible footprint of its activity to the investing public.  This scheme was historic in scope said Williams. The lies fed the stock price inflation and the inflation fed more lies. Round and round it went. But last year the music stopped the bubble burst the prices dropped and when they did billions of dollars nearly evaporated overnight.   ","negative"
"i have made millions no billions of theoretical dollars","","neutral"
"I was long FB $205 before earnings and held the entire time leading up. I sold right before earnings at $175 because I thought it would continue down further. Feels bad.","","negative"
"Big Bear Ai Yolo 6969 shares . 94.1 shorted with the highest CTB in the market 824 CTB","","positive"
"Most mentioned tickers on wsb for the last 24 hours  April 28 2022","","neutral"
"News In Brazil 346 Credit Card Rates Are Choking The Economy","  This was news to me.   Brazilians will be bearing the brunt of their government's campaign to tame doubledigit inflation. Latin Americas biggest economies have been quick to respond to surging prices prodded by memories of hyperinflation in the early 1990s.  formatpngampautowebpamps7f772c274ee0f7c660c365a6888f4738b8513a0c  Even though rates have been higher in the past the share of debt payments that account for household income have risen to an all time high of 50.  Wages have stagnated and purchasing power has eroded throughout the last year.   Even though Brazil is an extreme case it will be interesting to see how other regions of the world will experience similar interest rate hikes. Also  most mortgages in Brazil are variable rate.","negative"
"Who got them CALLS","","neutral"
"Facebook parent $Meta earnings are out  here are the numbers","     Meta the company formerly known as Facebook reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.   Earnings per share $2.72 vs $2.56 expected according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts  Revenue $27.91 billion vs $28.2 billion expected according to Refinitiv  Wall Street is also watching other key numbers in the Meta report   Daily Active Users DAUs 1.95 billion expected according to StreetAccount  Monthly Active Users MAUs 2.97 billion expected according to StreetAccount  Average Revenue per User ARPU $9.50 expected according to StreetAccount  Meta is updating investors for the first time since a brutal fourthquarter earnings report in February sent the stock down 26 its worst day ever. Daily active users declined for the first time and the company forecast weakerthanexpected growth.  Firstquarter results should shed light on how macroeconomic trends like inflation and the war in Ukraine may be impacting ad spending on the platform. Growth is expected to come in at 7.8 slipping into the single digits for the first time in Facebooks 10year history as a public company.  In Snaps earnings  week CEO Evan Spiegel said the period proved more challenging than we had expected. Alphabet followed with disappointing numbers on Tuesday largely attributable to weak ad spend on YouTube  Analysts will also be watching to see how Facebook is navigating Apples new app transparency rules which Meta CFO Dave Wehner said last quarter would result in a $10 billion revenue hit this year  Wehner told analysts on the companys earnings call at the time that the figure was an estimate of the overall impact of the iOS changes on 2022 revenue.  We cant be precise on this. Its an estimate he acknowledged adding that the company believes the impact will be substantial.  With the stock down almost 50 this year Metas guidance will be of particular importance to investors looking for signs of optimism. Secondquarter growth is expected to slow to 5.3 according to analysts polled by Refinitiv resulting in revenue of $30.6 billion. Thats down from 56 a year earlier.","negative"
"WTF is going on BYND and FB","Everyone drunk at work today Bloomberg reports erroneous earnings on FB McDonalds says Beyond Meat headlines misconstrued   Just a few little oopsies pumping and dumping billions in market cap in the course of like an hour. No big deal.","negative"
"It really does feel like theyre joining the Dark Side.","","negative"
"WHAT PAUL VOLCKER IS THINKING RIGHT NOW","","negative"
"Cramer on some nextlevel copium with his new DD","","neutral"
"CAN SOME GENIUS TAKE A LOOK AT MY QUESTION REAL QUICK WOULD MEAN THE ","Quick question. So I am both straddling and strangling options and need to know how the wash sale rule affects me in the case that I take a profit larger than my loss and close my position and then repeat with the SAME company when I see fit.   So quick example Apple opens at $150 and I play the 152.5 call and the 147.5 put lets just say they each cost $100 and Im in for $200 total one side runs up to $150 a con while the other only drops to $70 a con leaving a $20 gain.   Now lets say I repeat the strategy the next day with Apple in the exact same way and it worked out the same way leaving a $20 gain again so now Ive put a total of $400 during these 2 days to make these trades and my gain on one side following my example led to the contracts on the profitable side being worth $300 while the loosing side is left with a total value of $140 which leaves the $40 gain.   My question is will the $140 on the loosing side completely screw my taxes since I played the exact same company on back to back days or will I only be taxed on the $40 overall gain","negative"
"Always inverse Cramer","","neutral"
"Everyone on this sub can do this one simple trick","","neutral"
"Calls on COKE","","neutral"
"FB Earnings are Today After Market Close. Place Your Bets","TLDR   0429 155P at $2.75 or less  0429 157.5P at $3.00 or less  0429 160P at $3.25 or less  Here's a chart showing options volume and open interest yesterday for all the 0429 puts on FB. I do want to point out the increased activity around $150P$160P. That appears to be what is being priced in by institutional participants.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps6de20bdc7e5c5f526934b9e88f5ff2fbee2d88ac  The vast majority of the open interest looks to be at the $150 strike while most of the hedging activity looks to be between $150 and $160  Most of the open interest is pricing in a drop. Surprisingly someone has been buying a ton of 0429 $120P. Maybe speculative apes  Over the last couple days in the run up to earnings IV has gone from 40 to 160 and will likely continue to 200 by market close.  formatpngampautowebpampsa83af45d80fd23c708b542ad2cfefb60670b30fc  ampx200B  FB is also quite far from its delta neutral Green line. Most recently delta neutral has been a point of resistance. That may continue to be true for foreseeable future. Notably the increased put buying has brought delta neutral down. Source   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps0d07b921737ec12eec7fc14f2749bb28741b7234  Current ATM options show the probable range after market close of $166  $190.50.  I'm anticipating a drop but still want to make money so I need to make sure the options contracts I buy are profitable at the $150 mark which currently represents a 16 decrease from yesterday's close. It's possible all this dropping is priced in from the previous quarter. It's also possible that Meta's headwinds have accelerated and further future statements will paint a more dire picture of the company.  Remember that the cost of IV crush will be massive. So you need to pick a strike price that you reasonably expect will expire ITM.  So with that being said these are the positions I intend to open before market close   0429 155P at $2.75 or less  0429 157.5P at $3.00 or less  0429 160P at $3.25 or less  0429 160P at $4.50share  Unclear to what point I can get fills at these prices but I'm going to try.  Edit Doesn't look like I'm gonna get filled at the prices I want.  Edit2 Stock price went up and probably hit the high for today so bought 0429 160P for $4.50. Not ideal but this is probably the best price I'm gonna get. Need FB stock to be at $155.5share at market open to break even.  Edit3 Rip my puts. Post market is surprisingly $200","neutral"
"FB FTW","","positive"
"Facebook parent $Meta earnings are out  here are the numbers","     Meta the company formerly known as Facebook reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.   Earnings per share $2.72 vs $2.56 expected according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts  Revenue $27.91 billion vs $28.2 billion expected according to Refinitiv  Wall Street is also watching other key numbers in the Meta report   Daily Active Users DAUs 1.95 billion expected according to StreetAccount  Monthly Active Users MAUs 2.97 billion expected according to StreetAccount  Average Revenue per User ARPU $9.50 expected according to StreetAccount  Meta is updating investors for the first time since a brutal fourthquarter earnings report in February sent the stock down 26 its worst day ever. Daily active users declined for the first time and the company forecast weakerthanexpected growth.  Firstquarter results should shed light on how macroeconomic trends like inflation and the war in Ukraine may be impacting ad spending on the platform. Growth is expected to come in at 7.8 slipping into the single digits for the first time in Facebooks 10year history as a public company.  In Snaps earnings  week CEO Evan Spiegel said the period proved more challenging than we had expected. Alphabet followed with disappointing numbers on Tuesday largely attributable to weak ad spend on YouTube  Analysts will also be watching to see how Facebook is navigating Apples new app transparency rules which Meta CFO Dave Wehner said last quarter would result in a $10 billion revenue hit this year  Wehner told analysts on the companys earnings call at the time that the figure was an estimate of the overall impact of the iOS changes on 2022 revenue.  We cant be precise on this. Its an estimate he acknowledged adding that the company believes the impact will be substantial.  With the stock down almost 50 this year Metas guidance will be of particular importance to investors looking for signs of optimism. Secondquarter growth is expected to slow to 5.3 according to analysts polled by Refinitiv resulting in revenue of $30.6 billion. Thats down from 56 a year earlier.","negative"
"Always inverse Cramer","","neutral"
"True motivation revealed","","neutral"
"Cramer inverses himself","","neutral"
"Motley fools stock suggestions lol","","neutral"
"Everyone Don't worry ETFs are stable they'll bolster your other losses The market","","negative"
"Tomorrow is 75 on my portfolio  Wake me up in a week for my $FB tendies ","","negative"
"FB calls will they print","","positive"
"SPY this morning","","neutral"
"Ground Floor Entry into $ACB Reverse Head amp Shoulders Double Bottom","After hitting a 6year low $ACB bears are caught in a corner. Early morning indication shows $ACB above its 5day moving average and a onemonth downtrend see chart.  $ACB Developing Classic Reverse HampS  Double Bottomformatpngampautowebpampsa5d9efa68d430b8964470cb49686a506a95e6604  NOTE Both shoulders are symmetrical each having a height of $1.40formatpngampautowebpampse8f334f759f46110e47b3d38936230ea369ec814","negative"
"Most mentally stable GME bagholder","","neutral"
"I am putting literally every penny into OnlyFans when it IPOs and retiring off of you sick fucks","","negative"
"How has Jim Cramer not declared bankruptcy","Most of us autistic retards CANNOT be more wrong than Jim Cramer.  The fundamental analysis is wrong.  The tech analysis is wrong.  Everything is wrong   Seriously how often is his advice wrong   So what does that make him   One of us.  The most retarded autist.  He is our leader.","negative"
"I was about to show off my gain until.","","positive"
"I was about to show off my gain until.","","negative"
"All right which one of you sad apes is this","_have_80k_in_debt_and_i_dont_know_where_to_begin  ampx200B  To break it all down simply I started trading stock options and lost a ton of money. I took out loans to try and fix it and lost that too. ","negative"
"I understood why Meta  FB stock jumped 20 after listening to Q1 earnings call","","positive"
"30000 gains on Beyond Meat due to the news.","Hoping to see some sexy gain porn tomorrow due to this.  Hope some of you were bullish.    If I remember right I saw a yolo post a while back.  Hoping he held","positive"
"What just happened to $FB","Somebody dumped over a million shares and we saw a $10 flash crash in seconds.  Were earnings leaked My order for 50 shares was filled at $169 and I immediately sold it.","negative"
"All right which one of you sad apes is this","_have_80k_in_debt_and_i_dont_know_where_to_begin  ampx200B  To break it all down simply I started trading stock options and lost a ton of money. I took out loans to try and fix it and lost that too. ","negative"
"Final nail in the coffin.","","negative"
"UPDATE INVERSE CRAMER EFFECT IS REAL. Updated with fb about to touch $200","","positive"
"TDOC down over 30 AH  Cathie Wood had almost $700M in it. How does she still have a fund lol.","","negative"
"Nutrien $NTR They help make your food now they help make you money","Hi everyone I have recently entered into a call position on Nutrien $NTR due to technicals and macro news. First a little bit of background Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash nitrogen phosphate and sulfate products and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients crop protection products seeds and merchandise products. Basically Nutrien provides a lot of fertilizer needed for industrial scale farming. They are a sizeable company with a market cap of nearly 60 billion and they also pay close to a 2 dividend. The dividend is not why im in this stock however. Im in it mainly for the technical set up.  Daily chartformatpngampautowebpamps744c2bb071e5a5e840028ade5909b741d68eaa1a  First of all Nutrien has seen a drop as of recent. This is most likely a result of the massive run up it has been having since feb. The stock has now bounced on the 50 ema and 38.2 retracement from the run up. This leaves the stock on good grounds to resume its rally.  Hourly chartformatpngampautowebpamps74310544ad8a304f994e5a6b5ddbb5792e09c391  Now looking at the hourly chart the stock is on the cusp of breaking through resistance almost did today but market dropped eod. It is also on the verge of filling a gap of nearly 2.5 which can happen in a days span. Combined with the fact that earnings are around the corner Nutrien is poised to pop. One final thing to mention is being a fertilizer company they stand to benefit from the fertilizer shortage as im sure their pricing has increased. There is also higher demand as crop prices have increased and farming season is underway. That being said I believe they will crush ER.  The June 17 option chain has $200mil or more of OI on the call side. There is 30k OI $15mil on the 105 strike alone. To me this means that a lot of big money is just parked for a rally.  Positions 0617 105C following the money on this one","positive"
"Nows your chance to buy at the top and lose 10 in a week.","J Powell speaking and raising rates next week on Wednesday.  The plebes will literally cone with pitchforks for the FED if inflation keeps rising.    He gaveth for 2 years.  Now he must taketh away for 2 years.","negative"
"The worst has happened today.","My beloved icon and hero the legendary Bill Hwang the King of YOLO the Master of Leverage has been criminally charged. May the vile enemies conspiring against the man be crushed to dust.  ","negative"
"Automated Daily Finance Recap","Hey  I tried doing an automated instagram account that posts everyday a recap of the day of the finance world cryptos stocks indexes market confidence  I just would like some advices on what to improve or to change because it doesn't seem to interest anyone for the moment lmao  Here is the idlink  finance_daily_recap thanks for the one that will check   Have a nice day everyone  formatpjpgampautowebpampsb20185086d132cd7ffedf409002a1981509bf5cd  formatpjpgampautowebpamps0fc29055eda95d12bde95ab9f115b7027e55e805","neutral"
"Puts on market","I'm wondering what people are thinking will drop the most. Looking to buy put options any advice or ideas","neutral"
"Yes my FB puts will be nothing tomorrow but I dont give a fuck sooo whatever hahaha","","negative"
"Bets on the date when MSM is going to drop sexual or racist allegation on Musk","Im going with $69 on May 4th via sexual cause they hate his space ships but think his tech is sexy. Because I keep getting botted about adding more content here is a bunch of garbage djsvsb sjsbhs sjsvsvuz subsvsj sajsbvs jsbvshvs jsusvsv isuvsvvska kaubsv kauvsvshs jjjs. Jajbsb sisbbsjs sj shisvdkd jshbsbsh skshwvbsks bsubs s jshvvs jaivsbks jajvsbskv snansb. Isbshshnosv kahvskskvv skga ks jha sksbbaj skbauos. Shgscsn skbs shsvjsn a. Sksbshjs sj shavsjanbsj. Kkdjvsnkshs. Jjsbshabsbusbs. Sjhsbsjs s","negative"
"Stop hyping inverse Cramer","Apes keep your mouth shut. If Cramer realizes what's happening we all may end up posting loss porn that dives deep into the Mariana trench. So lets just shut up and keep following Cramer secretly.","negative"
"PayPal ApplePay Accused of Patent Breaches By US fintech","Texasbased financial technology company Fintiv Inc has launched a lawsuit alleging digital payment giant PayPal Holdings Inc has infringed five of its patents.  It alleges the basic functionality of their respective payment platforms infringes Fintiv patents.  The move comes as Fintiv continues similar litigation it previously initiated against Apple Pay and separately Walmart.  The suit against Walmart alleges misuse of trade secrets but also revolves around the same intellectual property  using phonebased technology to process payments. Fintiv claims it created the IP that makes much of it work  ","neutral"
"Is Newegg getting shorted 12 million shares","  ampx200B  The imgur link shows two screenshots I took of my ThinkOrSwim application one showing the ticker NEGG at $6.53 at the time it was taken the second showing a snippet in the News section that I'm curious about. Anyone know if this means NEGG has a massive Short occurring Genuinely curious sorry if this post gets locked or deleted.","negative"
"wtf happened to FB LMAOOO","all of you were so confident buying 2dte puts was a sure thing  After hours its up 14 lmaoooo  ","negative"
"Seriously Idiots I Need Advice","Im poor but just received $200k unexpectedly. What would you do if you were me I want to create an income stream.","neutral"
"US Market  SPY Checklist","Cool US market checklist not my content it's from a newsletter  ampx200B  gtTLDR  Its too early to call a recession but PMIs next Mondayutm_mediumemailamputm_sourcedb might reveal if we are in contraction. Stay tuned Meanwhile investors are going longer as the market falls judging by positioning.   gt   gtIs a recession on the cards   gt   gtReasons abound to worry about a recession so its fair to stop and take stock of where the economy is headed.   gt   gt Commodity crunch amp trade slowdown sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict have caused a slowdown in trade and a crunch in commodities   gt   gt Consumer strike higher prices are squeezing consumers who then have to cut on other services like Netflix ultimately resulting in a much dreaded consumer strikeutm_mediumemailamputm_sourcedb FT paywall sorry   gt   gt Hawkish Fed the Fed needs to raise rates in the face of rampant inflation and after 15 years of dovish preeminence the hawks are wrestling control backutm_mediumemailamputm_sourcedb   gt   gtOur checklist points to an economy that still has considerable steam where the real vulnerabilities are valuations in the face of mounting inflation  formatpngampautowebpampsff72c722a7beae2435f2147126f624a68f994cde","negative"
"I know Im retarded but I needed another put against $FB at the top","","negative"
"Thank you daddy Musk ","","positive"
"Told myself I'd never be like the retards in this sub..","","negative"
"Predictions for FORD at market open tomorrow","I don't see enough talk about Ford's after hours movements. Ford closed at 14.80 today and pumped to 15.46 during AH. Ford's earnings call was today they announced that they just BARELY outperformed estimates .38c adjusted gt .37 estimate.   So between their earnings call and the announcement of two new EV trucks where do you see F price being at market open for the rest of the week   I've got some 15.5c contracts expiring 56 so give me some hopium ladies.","positive"
"Elon joked about buying CocaCola but what if...","CocaCola still uses a coca leaf extract. There is only one company in the US that is allowed to import and process coca leaves the Stepan Company.  If ElonMusk buys it he could theoretically gain control over CocaCola by controlling supply.  The Stepan Company has a market cap of $2.31 billion and trades under ticker SCL.  CocaCola has a market cap of $283.95 billion and trades under KO.","negative"
"Is Roku the next TDOC  I'm not sticking around to find out but I will sell u these puts","Throughout the day a lot of you are going to be asking yourself the same question  and look I love Mama Wood as much as anyone else who benefitted from ARK's run in 2020 but lately her portfolio has been a dumpster fire  idk where price goes later today maybe ROKU really will sell hella  but what I DO know is that a lot of u r gonna be placing bets throughout the day and I intend to sell these to u as IV expands  Good luck   ampx200B  ","positive"
"Stocks We're 'nearing peak bear sentiment' on Big Tech analyst says","Here's the article  Stocks We're 'nearing peak bear sentiment' on Big Tech analyst says  gt The selling pressure in tech stocks amid slowing growth and rising interest rates is so brutal that an end has to be in sight  gt sentiment is so negative on Big Tech that the point may be nearing where it makes sense to buy.","negative"
"Daily Discussion Thread for April 28 2022","Read rules follow Twitter and IG join Discord see ban bets","neutral"
"Cramer this morning on CNBC","Cramer on CNBC this morning of Microsoft Google and Meta  Cramer buying Google Dip and sold most his Meta Holdings.  Guess we are headed into a Tech Bubble Bursting. Dam it Jim.","negative"
"CNBC Jim Cramer Halftime Report DD The Market Goes UP","423 based Cramer decrees the market must go up and Iggles offseason speculation.    SPY 429 $380p  Fellow degenerate   from the city of brotherly love our time is nigh","positive"
"Friend who is a bear bought stocks today","He's calling for a big crash and has been but put maybe 10 of his cash into a few stocks today Could this mean we are close to a bottom when bears turn into bulls Do you know anyone that was calling for a crash but starting buying stocks lately","negative"
"It's getting serious now Elon vs Buffet and Coke","This article has been published on cm_venYAHOO  formatpngampautowebpamps5495f59964b095bef227979e6cdf991e1a161f2b","neutral"
"Would it be plausible to effectively sue the SEC for Poor Price Discovery amp Directional Manipulation of Dark Pools","Suuup   Gimme alllll the opinions for the below.   ampx200B  I have bought many put contracts that expired yet after recent drops such as Netflix's I would have made an absurd gain. Like 30000 gain over principal spent of like 10k as I was rolling almost purely Netflix puts for 2 years  knowing the price was asinine. Unfortunately I lost my job and had to recently stop my strategy which I thought oh well I was wrong. I now see that I was clearly correct   The price dropped so much at once and Gary Gensler stated 95 of retail orders hit dark pools. 95 of buys 95 of sells Or 91 of buys and 99 of sells   His statement was ambiguous on purpose.     These two factors allude that price discovery is simply broken as they don't define the direction of rerouted orders. A company the size of Netflix covered by 1000's of analysts moving this much is just fucking dumb. It seems their price raise amp password crackdown are simply Wallstreet's journalistic answer for the masses to prevent genuine price scrutiny. I am a hater of Netflix but also can acknowledge that their price raises have historically done very well and a password crackdown has minimal downside as you only lose people not currently paying. Maybe ya lose a few others but it is clearly a net benefit.   ampx200B  I feel cheated and I think others should as well as we had some of the brightest minds of wallstreet covering Netflix.   ampx200B  TLDR  Netflix  large corporations should never drop this much on known information. It's all routed in price manipulation amp price discovery is a joke.","negative"
"My sisters account. Gains made 1K startup account. Increased 50.","","positive"
"Musk Defeats Investor Claims That Teslas SolarCity Deal Was Improper","_mediumsocialampcmpidsocialflowtwitterbusinessamputm_sourcetwitteramputm_contentbusinessamputm_campaignsocialfloworganiccmpidsocialflowtwitterbusinessamputm_sourcetwitteramputm_contentbusinessamputm_campaignsocialfloworganic  Tesla Inc. cofounder Elon Musk wont have to hand over as much as $13 billion in shares of the electric car maker he got in a buyout of SolarCity after a judge found he isnt liable for backing the deal.  Delaware Chancery Court Judge Joseph Slights III concluded the multibillionaire  who recently agreed to buy socialmedia powerhouse Twitter Inc. for $44 billion  didnt improperly use his influence with Tesla directors to prod them to acquire the struggling solar power provider Musk founded with his cousins. Tesla investors demanded Musk return Tesla shares he received as part of the $2.6 billion deal in 2016.  Slights found Musk who served as SolarCitys chairman and largest shareholder at the time of the purchase wasnt improperly on both sides of the deal and didnt ram it through at the expense of Tesla shareholders. Disgruntled investors argued SolarCity was insolvent at the time and not worth the price. They also said Musk failed to properly remove himself from the deals details.  The preponderance of the evidence reveals that Tesla paid a fair price  SolarCity was at a minimum worth what Tesla paid for it and the acquisition otherwise was highly beneficial to Tesla Slights said in his 131page ruling.  The ruling burnishes Musks reputation as a freewheeling entrepreneur who relishes going against the grain as he runs the worlds largest maker of electric cars and spares Musk what could have been a substantial ding even to his vast personal fortune. It also may reinforce the nickname Teflon Elon for winning a case many thought hed lose.  Musk 50 is the worlds richest person with wealth valued at $253 billion. His Twitter acquisition features one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals in history. Hes taking private a 16yearold social networking platform that has become a hub of public discourse and a flashpoint in the debate over online free speech.  In the SolarCity case investors accused Musk of improperly prodding Tesla directors to sign off on the SolarCity buyout at a patently unfair price following a highly flawed process in order to bail out family members Slights said in the ruling.  He was the only Tesla director to challenge the investors claims in court. His board colleagues agreed to a $60 million settlement of allegations by disgruntled shareholders that they were duped into backing the SolarCity deal. That accord was funded by insurance covering Teslas officers and directors.  During a trial last year Musk fenced with investors lawyers over his handling of the SolarCity deal and his predilection for making outrageous statements while running the electriccar maker.  To be honest I dont want to be the boss of anything he said on the stand. I dont want to be CEO. I tried not to be CEO of Tesla but I had to or it would die. I rather hate being a boss. Im an engineer.  In his testimony Musk acknowledged helping hire lawyers to guide the deal through board confirmation and holding weekly meetings to light a fire under the due diligence process.   He maintained that the solar power company was on a solid financial footing but had said in an internal memo the firm needed to solve its liquidity crisis. It turned out SolarCity was hemorrhaging cash and in danger of defaulting on its debt according to court testimony.  But Musk dismissed claims of impropriety having recused himself from deliberations over the deal and been barred from the Tesla directors final approval vote.","negative"
"Modest gainz on FB earnings bounce","","positive"
"This is a MEME market. The robots just keep bringing pigs to the slaughter at 420. I'm reposting my TA from last night with the Chart on top so you can see it for the reading impaired.","ampx200B   OMG WTF I JUST HAD A NEW DISCOVERY WHILE MAKING THIS.formatpngampautowebpampsaaf1bdb4d04196b7de68be2e53ab60bb7b2b43a6  The Bear Flag Channel Has Both 469 and 420 happening exactly same time in July. WTFFFF. I Totally did not make that shit up.  This is a MEME Market Now. Insert Captain Philips Meme  When  you trade in a market run by high speed computers that can move  markets do you bet against the Skynet or do you join the Terminators  realistically you would benefit massively by buying stock in Skynet.  Buy Skynet stock.   This is what we have been waiting for.  Exactly 1 year ago SPY reached and bounced down from 420. Then up.   Then 3 months later the SPY  suddenly dropped 4 to bounce off of 420 again.   Then  2.5 months later the SPY dropped again 6 to bounce off of 426 this  time they fucked your puts and plans to buy calls suckers.   Then 3.5 months later the SPY dropped again 12 and guess what price THATS RIGHT YOU GUESSED IT MEME TRADER 420.   Then  up we went and dropped again suddenly in a month FEB. AND THUS began  our BEAR FLAG formation...OR is it a DOUBLE BOTTOM. But what price did  we drop to this time   Open 411 bounce to 428 to close. WHY  because war so I excuse the over shoot but it compensated. Next  retrace to golden pocket and form top of BEAR FLAG.   Then It dropped  again exactly 2 months later 1 year from original 420 TO GUESS WHAT  FUCKING PRICE 420 U MOTHER FATHERSSS. That's right.  BEAR FLAG FULLY FORMED Touching perfect.  WHYYYY should you BUY IDK because this is a MEME market now Fuck your puts gay bear   Actually It might be a Massive BEAR FLAG so SELL IT DOESNT MATTER.  The point is that this IS the price we have waited for. That moment in the market AGAIN.   WALLSTREET  knows that you like to trade MEMEs only. SO how do Market Makers work  They bring the price OVER and OVER again to the most traded Price.  BECAUSE MMs need you to TRADE. They make their money on the spreads and  volume.   SO we look at Volume Profile and where is the most traded  amount That's right you guess it.... 435438. Well what the F you want  me to do this isn't some made up shit. You idiots keep buying the dip  before we even get to the bottom of the dip at 420. Morons.  So what can YOU do to help yourself IDFK this is NFA.  I  have an IRON BUTTERFLY as far dated as I could afford it. I will cycle  it probably half way through the 3 month cycle or when we reach 469  again. WHY because between 465 and 470 is where another bulk of trading  took place. The MMs Know that.   SO either we Head UP there now     because Apple and Amazon are going to kill it i actually have no idea  they might just destroy the market who knows. Inflation. PCE is Friday  and FOMC is next Wednessday. SO I think sideways trading till then at  least   OR we DROP into a 25 to 40 CRASH.   THE 3rd Possibility is that we go to a brand new high of 500 by middle of JULY.   Why July Read on weary reader.  Last and Final Note.   GUESS WHEN the BEAR FLAG CHANNEL RESISTANCE line HITS 469.   THAT'S  RIGHT you guessed it MIDDLE OF JULY Just like 1 year prior to  that when the market took 3.69 DUMP on the 3rd week of JULY finished  dump on next Monday  So it is  likely that in a market where everything has dropped to NEW LOWS EXCEPT a  select few stocks the market is either BOUND to BOUNCE off of this  fabled 420 OR is it DOOMED to be RESET. I have a firm belief that the  market can no longer handle a drop below 420. We are in the clouds it  is either MOON or SPLAT now. Below 420  margin calls and liquidations.  So  do YOU think that the Fed or MMs or whoever the F controls the markets  will let the market CRASH or take it to a new HIGH because they know  everyone's trading habits and patterns and access to everyone's money  plus who knows how much more money might suddenly be printed for  stimulus checks or cancelling student loans. Rich don't care about  inflation they make more money when the market inflates.  That was a Question please answer it.","negative"
"Robinhood lays off 9 of its entire staff today in addition to recently having its podcast hosts spin offtheir own show.","Glad they fired me last year. My wifes boyfriend would be pissed if I got laid off today instead Ive had a whole year to move back in with my moms boyfriend.   Yahoo  Snacks Podcast Leaves HOOD","neutral"
"Mama Wood please post your TDOC loss porn","","negative"
"Explain to me like I'm 5. What happens if hood hits 0","This a hipotetical what would happens if hoog hit 0. If you hade shares with them What would happen to the those shares To the people bought them   Will everything will go to 0 too","negative"
"Does anyone knows if the Mexican cocain has stocks Asking for a friend","","positive"
"Cramer hosted the CEO a few months ago pumping on record earnings. Thats all I needed to know. $8.4k in Puts tonight20 down AH. Thanks Jimmy","","positive"
"Incoming End Game of 2022","ampx200B  Credit  uPsychological_Sand29formatpjpgampautowebpampsebfd19d7de6bb2f7d89bfdec5de66a3cb153f30b  ampx200B  Fellow Apes your time has come...for the endgame.  Some tard has posted on rdividends about an inevitable crash this summer. The chart shows a striking similarity of 2008 top line before the crash when compared the 2022 bottom line.  Just posting this here for something to discuss about don't shoot the messenger.  Potential positions  SPY 527 360p  Note Orange line is a short squeeze of Volkswagon. Hey maybe it'll be GME doing the squeeze.","negative"
"I think they earning will missed badly what yall think","","positive"
"I SPY an AAPL in a TSLA  Scalpers Delight  428"," Economic Calendar  April 28 2022  formatpngampautowebpamps3f30515293a60ec30f534613daf645f2d14b039f   SPY  April 28  Technical Analysis  formatpngampautowebpamps39aeb716321b92884b7d5e5bd76ae79fecccc0fa   Lose 416.20  415.13 and look for 413.98  413.51  Lose 413.51 and look for 412.25  410.61  408.88  Break 418.10  418.74 and look for 419.68  Break 419.68 and look for 420.66  422.02  422.99  Break 422.99 and look for 424.89  425.82  426.89  428.70  formatpngampautowebpamps65d4d68abb6f438707d8209a9dea91db681248fa   Rectangle 15 min   Lose 415.87  415.02 and look for half  at 412.67 with full measure at 409.38  Break 419.10 and look for 422.33  422.96  Break 422.33  422.96 and look for half  at 425.65 with full measure at 428.99  formatpngampautowebpamps8f74f72c83ac4ce54ab7d375b7b7f7cd11e38496  Notes   If we can break 419.10  420.66 I like calls to 422.33  422.99 and again leaving runners to 424  425.65  428.99  I like puts if we break 416.20  415.13 to 413.98  413.51 and leaving runners to 412.25  410.61  408.88.  15 min RSI 39.34 bearish  65 min RSI 35.14 bearish  near oversold  2 min. MACD bullish divergence for what its worth  formatpngampautowebpamps149aae8e880449f7c2f3b29a91dc3e3a66c99f64   65 min. RSI bullish divergence  formatpngampautowebpamps2d4a7184421e8a7ba452c214c9ff8e0026a9fbca   AAPL Rectangle      Break 157.35 and look for 159.01  159.63   Break 159.63 and for for half measure at 161.91 with full measure at 164.02   Lose 156.57 and look for 155.47   Lose 155.47 and look for half measure at 153.29 with full measure  at 151.14  formatpngampautowebpamps631f9e6faba301853eac3c98500c472df1c16529   TSLA Rectangle  Tight Range   Break 896.68 and for for 910.50  918   Break 918 and for for half measure at 940.38 with full measure at 962.56   Lose 877.36  875.00 and look for half measure at 853.08 with full measure at 830.50  formatpngampautowebpamps778a826a91c4c87bfe731989297bfe914ddfc377   Positions  Played small today as im easing back into the grind after two weeks off. SPY puts.  formatpngampautowebpampsc07b035118c8ccc4f794a919abbf9b78f0945d6d  Thanks for reading  NightMan","negative"
"Disney Calls","Today Disney responded to Gov. DeSantis' attempt to dissolve the Reedy Creek District with a statement that dissolution couldn't be complete until AFTER the nearly $1b in bond obligations that Disney has been paying are met.  If DeSantis wants to go fully bananas he'll have to pay off some of Disney's bills if he wants to punish them LMAO.  What do you all think about laying some bets on Disney to outplay Gov. DeSqntis","neutral"
"Q1 GDP plunges","US Q1 GDP 1.4 Exp. 1.0   This is the worst economic performance since the beginning of the pandemic in Q2 of 2020.  ","negative"
"Germany PPI index  maximum increase since 1949 Once again about inflation","The situation is getting more and more interesting and fun. EU energy groups agree to pay in rubles for Russian gas.  Reasons The PPI index cost inflation in Germany soared by 30.9 in March compared to March 2021. This is the maximum increase since 1949 and then let me remind you there was a postwar famine and a shortage of energy resources in Germany.  Energy prices jumped by 83.8 last month including natural gas rose by 144.8. Food has risen in price by 12.2...  Of course PPI does not always go headtohead with CPI consumer inflation. Sometimes inflation becomes less due to the loss of business margins. But anyway 30 inflation at a key rate of 0 is something surreal ....It is completely incomprehensible who will need such a EURO ...   Meanwhile EU energy groups agree to fulfill Putin's conditions on Russian gas  this is the headline of the Financial Times editorial published today. According to the newspaper within a few days the largest energy companies in Germany Austria Hungary and Slovakia including German Uniper and Austrian OMV are preparing to open ruble accounts with Gazprombank in Switzerland..   formatpjpgampautowebpamps53e7572bc573882dd609ed8aa4914210104e3dc0","negative"
"Elon Musk wins $13B lawsuit over Solar City deal Tesla shareholders called a bailout","Things are looking good for Elon  ","positive"
"OTM options and IV leading up to earnings","I've noticed that people take advantage of IV leading up to earnings and I am wondering how that works. For example Amazon's AMZN earnings is tomorrow 0428 AH. ITM and ATM options are incredibly expensive due to volatility. Ex. one 2760C 0429 is worth about $9.6k 2DTE. And so I've seen people buy far OTM options hold until earnings and sell it hopefully for a profit.   Now the 2000P 0429 is worth about $95 with an IV of 179. Is this something that one would purchase tomorrow and sell before EOD Or is it too late and should have been bought earlier Would the intraday movement of the stock matter since its way OTM and essentially we are taking advantage of IV leading up to earnings. I imagine this would be absolutely worthless after earnings since it expires 0429 and there's likely no way that AMZN would even drop that low.   I have no positions but would appreciate any insight on this strategy thanks.","neutral"
"THE HOUSING MARKET IS GOING TO GRIND TO A HALT....","The current dynamics in the housing market are unlike anything seen in decades if ever. Prices are at all time highs supply is scarce rates are rising and refi activity has plummeted. Housing faces a set of headwinds AND tailwinds at the same time creating a pressure cooker in a very important sector of the economy.  The median price of an existing home sold in March was up 15 percent to a record of $375k. Total homes for sale at the end of last month was 950K a 2 month supply of inventory. The rates on a 30 year fixed mortgage have gone up about 200 basis points since the beginning of the year from slightly above 3 to over 5 currently. Refi activity has plunged almost 70 in the last year.  The opinions of the housing market range from one extreme to another. Some are calling for a complete bust as prices have reached unsustainable levels and can't possibly go any higher. Others look at lack of supply and an economy flush with cash and see only continued price appreciation especially in the face of break neck inflation. The reality in my opinion will likely be a crushing slow down in any activity related to housing.  With interest rates at 5.35 most homeowners who could benefit from a refi usually a 1 rate improvement have either done it already or it no longer makes sense to. This is after a paltry 25 basis point hike by the FED. Once a couple of 50 basis point moves happen and rates hit 6.57 refi volume is going to dry up. One year ago refinances made up 61 of total mortgage activity today that number is 35 and has been decreasing at almost double digit levels for months.  On the purchase side mortgage applications are down 17 in the last year and were down 8.3 week over week. Pending sales have been down 5 months in a row. March sales were down 4.5 and listings were down 9.5. Activity on the buying side has been hampered by increased rates and increased prices at the same time. A 1 increase in interest rates typically equates to a loss of 10 in buying power. Rates have gone up over 2 YTD and prices are up almost 20 in the  last year. Buyers who were already fighting an uphill battle are getting pummeled on both sides of the equation.  The stress in the purchase and refi sides of the housing market is starting to show itself in terms of how deals are financed. Cash has always been king in real estate and is no different now with 28 of sales being cash. The good old ARM has made its way back into the picture currently making up 9 of total loan count and 17 of dollar volume. This doesn't portend a 2008 like collapse by any means but it is an interesting development. A 5 year ARM is currently about 1 lower than a fixed rate making it an option in a rising price and rate world.  Housing inventory countrywide is estimated to be 4 million units short of demand. The CEO of the National Association of Home Builders NAHB just came out appealing to the government for help to stave off a recession in housing as the market continues to slow down on all fronts. There is a real irony to this as the homebuilders have already plotted a course through these times. A look at building permits shows that permits for single family homes are 4.8 in the last month. Compare that to permits for buildings with 5 units which are up 10.9. Housing starts show a similar trend with single family starts 1.7 while starts for construction of 5 units are up 7.5. There are no signs on the horizon that inventory issues are going to change.   The net result of this will be a massive slow down in housing. This may lead to price drops but prices may also keep going up due to cash purchases and lack of supply. Overall volume is going to drop to levels that will make it hard for any type of significant move in price either way. Large buying volume relative to supply is what is needed to keep prices ripping like they have been for years. But that volume is shrinking fast. Conversely large selling volume relative to supply is needed to lower prices in any meaningful way. But who is going to sell their house that has a sub 4 rate to buy another equally inflated house at over 5 For those reasons I don't see any scenario that housing doesn't just slowly grind to a halt....","negative"
"Too poor to fuck.","","negative"
"Why is Snapchat making no money","So I've came across an article which says that Snap Inc. isn't making any money and making losses since it's listing.     But couldn't they just add more ads and cut expenses to be profitable NonEBITDA adjusted","neutral"
"What is the safest meme stock","What is the safest meme stock I wanted to experiment a bit with some option selling strategies but I don't want to get caught bagholding overpriced shares.  The best case scenario would be a meme stock that is back to trading near fundamental value  P.S. I don't know if moderators will allow tickers under 1.5 billion MCAP in the comments so if there are any stocks under that limit that you know of PM me. ","positive"
"Playing both sides  the one time it works. FB puts sold then calls today before close.","","positive"
"Keep smiling ","","negative"
"42722 SPY APPLE QQQ VIX Daily TA","    Going to keep this brief because Ive unfortunately got a sick kiddo at home who so kindly passed it along to me. Gonna try to rest up before tomorrow so I can be on my game. But we had some fairly big things happen today honestly.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsdff01842200b28d7610eb06435a207f2d531e0ba  In the moment its impossible to tell but we essentially just had a massive $6.52 range day today. While also maintaining a slight bull channel that broke as you can see ill show zoomed out below the current bear channel we have been in since last Wednesday. Thats a big win for the bulls   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps57cf93469c87cc081c8fa23573e19fe5edc73e21  For those that follow me you know I am not one to scream manipulation or anything like that. The markets are erratic and in the end we are playing a risky game that most people fail at. I believe only 0.02 of all people in the world are professional successful day traders if my statistics are correct.   Anyways this week has once again been humbling. We need to remember quick profits are king. When we hold through these massive violent days and swings we are just getting ate alive. We also have to accept a bad entry. I struggle with that today especially willing to admit my entry was bad and help a call to 80 that I was lucky enough to recover for 11 before the 2nd dip of the day. But I then got stuck in a call that I now have to carry and definitely dont like the idea of carry it over night. But in the end the choices we make have consequences. When green wins the MM win. We have to remember we have to play their game. If they want violent wild swings thats fine We just take profits early  So lets talk about the fuckery of the day today.   Overnight we had MSFT killing it and of course Google sucking air through a straw. Spy opened up very green this morning and just took off immediately reaching 422.02 by 945a. It was pretty arguable that with the VIX opening at 31.11 after closing at 33.77 the day before and dropping all the way to 29.89 at open that we were going to see one hell of a bull run. At these VIX levels a 23 green day is just as easy if not easier to accomplish then a red 2.9 we saw yesterday.   Well then 10am came and we saw Spy go from its HOD all the way to 415.01 within 30 minutes time. Thats a total of 1.7 drop or a $6 drop in a very short period of time. The VIX also spiked from 29.89 to 32.77 at the same time. And what caused this arguably unnatural sell off Thats a great question. At the time the only notable news was that expected home sales had a massive miss. But you will not sit here and tell me that after 3 weeks of the markets not giving a flying F about CPI PMI or any other actually important economic data that they all of a sudden cared today Sus...          Then the lovely which if you didnt catch it here it is fb oopsies.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampscb7e9c2f3014e50cb9cf5653ec4b09e9db357eae  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsda53071790cea012f152748b115cca532a8f632c  Yes you are reading that correct thats BLOOMBERG fricken Bloomberg accidentally tweeting a massive miss for META earnings. And not only that But they tweeted the INCORRECT data yeah that data was old. How does one manage to post not only incorrect data but also post it in the middle of the day when no one ever releases earnings yeah a little sus if you ask me.   Now why was this important Ah yes let me tell you why So the market had opened bullish af. Tanked on the bullshit at 1015am and FINALLY recovered all the way back to green and made a new HOD Yay SPY. Well right after making the HOD is when that piece dropped at 1pm. And that changed the whole dynamic for the rest of the day. I dont like to scream manipulation or anything but im telling you that someone fucked with the market on purpose today and they won. Oh yeah someone just so conveniently LOADED to the tits with puts RIGHT BEFORE the new dropped sus I mean come on.   Overall after SPY recovered from its morning dip it was setting the stage full steam ahead for an afternoon rally and I have no doubts it was shooting for 425426 EOD. But that meta new not only tanked meta itself to be down 5 at one point but took the rest of the market down with it. I know nothing will ever come from this but this is the type of day that breaks the spirits of a day trader.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsb73e55cd522928c7a143546c643f6f3734e17b97  So where are we   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps5ce2d9a2245054e95c6bfefb84ea0367cadf9f1c  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps1525667c63346434bda1d4f628e1a5fb00641f4b  Well meta absolutely KILLED IT tonight on earnings. I called it out in my server but I did not play it myself but I called it out that meta was going to be a call not put play. It got beat down so aggressively over the last week there was no way they would tank it anymore.   Spy as you can see is reacting VERY positively to that news.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps450ba653ce6a03603b232b1f5a9ae3b91d2c9cbe  The daily chart on SPY has never looked so bullish. I wanna point out the blue arrows to you. So you can see I highlight two from March and then today. What do you see there Especially the one from March 8th the first blue arrow you see a massive sell off that ended at 415 AND had a long ass wicked candle. What did it do the next day It rallied like no one elses business.   So for instance March 8th closed at 0.76 with an intraday range of 2.9 or $12 of movement. The next day it had a 2.68 green day.   March 14th closed at 0.73 with an intraday range of 2.1 or $8.76 of movement. The next day it had a 2.20 green day.  Those of you that follow me know ive been having a working theory of a sideways channel from 415 to 458 for a little while now. This would secure that channel with now 4 supports. Yes someones gonna scream it cant be a channel if a candle breaks it Well it can actually. Its called an outlier. And that candle right there is from the day the Russia war took off. So thats really an outlier.  Now the resistance we have 7 candles rejecting off of it with two outliers above it. Something I am definitely watching for sure.   One thing I do see and know though is that 415 yesterday and today and last month held as great support. Tomorrow which we are above now resistance will be 420. From there we paint the path to 428 which is the daily 8ema and next major resistance. Believe it or not I truly think its doable tomorrow. It would take a large 2.5 day but thats honestly easily obtainable.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps2032d9004a32a96abb8668b5b4f7eccdee08c3db  The VIX never really found its groove today. It supports the sideways range day for sure as we just couldnt really get a direction established and after a very strong ADX yesterday it was very weak all day today. However its important to note just how high the VIX is. The vix does not usually stay in this range. Its happy place is down close to 1920 for the last few months. The VIX is more like to unravel from these levels and cause massive bull runs when it does. Arguably at open today when the VIX immediately dropped and spy rocketed too that was setting the tone for the day. But it was unable to hold below the 30 level and reach 28. With Meta killing earnings and 32 being clearly the top for VIX right now I think we will see this unwind tomorrow and will see the bull rally.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps9c1aa62485dee2eeffc0e1e6fe9b8c0a807b9671  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps78e69d67554a66438d0e9e9b82daf12f10b2a46b  Apple is still well within its bear channel right now. However it bounced off support today once again at 155. The daily and 15min bear channel supports were tested and held perfectly today. I didnt even have to adjust the yellow bear channel thats how perfect it was.   Now you note the two candles highlighted on apple and yes you guessed it they coincide perfectly with the SPY candles that resulted in rallies So lets dig into these.   March 14th Apple finished down 2.66 with an intraday range of 2.67 or $4.02 of movement it was followed by a massive green day that was 2.97 green with an intraday range of 3.45 or $5.19 of movement.   Today had a 0.15 finished with a total range of 2.83 or $4.41 of movement. So very similar days and ranges. It will be very interesting to see if tomorrow we get that bull rally we are all waiting for.   The markets MAY make us wait until apple earnings but I have a feeling we are going to rally tomorrow off meta earnings and will look for a follow through rally after Apple beats earnings. I dont think personally that amazon is going to beat earnings at all. And I dont think the markets will care either to be honest. Look at google today left in the dust 3.75 and was red all day long even when the markets were at the highs of day.   We will find out in the morning when we wake up how pre market and Europe digests everything but again if I ever was a betting man despite all the fuckery afoot on a markets direction tomorrow being green I feel fairly confident in.   The one thing that will change that is if markets for some reason dont digest overnight meta well or the VIX for some ungodly reason spikes back to 3234 before open.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsb88d321b399d449ef1e97236efe07972311a5748  I wasnt going to add QQQ tonight just cause im running outta steam here and my heads killing me but I wanted to point out the exact same candle set up on QQQ that SPY and Apple has And see how wild that swing up was the next day. Just something to keep in mind.   10 challenge  This week honestly has been really rough for me. I took a major loss Monday once again on a bs reversal that was like 1 in 30minutes and yesterday finally recovered to green on the week. Intraday today I had a good call in the morning for 11. I then entered another call at the perfect moment before spy dropped the 1.5. I with conviction or stupidity held from 80 all the way to 5 to 40 back to 10 before I finally sold right before the 1pm sell off. That was a rough time for sure. I also then took another 2dte call that went against me and I got out a 1 thankfully.   As you can see I ended up closing my MSFT lotto for 10 it was a very small position. At open I was up about 5 and then it immediately went red so I just bailed while I could. Of course had I held I woulda been up a lot when it hit that 56 at one point. But I had no belief it would rally that hard intraday.   So thats the good. The bad is I also entered some calls around 230 when I expected the bull trend to continue and immediately saw a drop and red action. So I am currently holding those right now over night. I am holding way move over night then I care to do but I think by EOD tomorrow I should be able to exit everything green.   Call msft lotto 3 dte 10  Call 0dte 11  Call 0dte 11  Call 2dte 1  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsb5f466edc0124c1c637cf5f9bcc6951bfe009d54  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps0313978b2a1e448171b23afd5d6822ed53e703ac  Realistically I dont have too far to go on these For the 2dte 422C on spy I only need to see 424 intraday tomorrow to see any green. That is very much so doable for SPY tomorrow.     The 428c lotos from last week are pretty much smoked I need something like 434 by Friday which is pretty doubtful. My goal will be to close those EOD tomorrow or intraday around 50 if I get the chance.   The Apple 165C has a breakeven of 161.3 which is very doable for apple in one day. Itll be tough but its doable. Depending on how im feeling and where those are tomorrow night and what market is doing I MAY hold the apple as a lotto over night for earnings. I havent decided yet.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps4864df80d99e5df06eb5361eebd2396c95603a43  And of course cant forget the hyperwheel that still haunts me as I sleep at night. The good news is im holding the futures contracts still so as long as we get some green under neath us we will be good to go and I will quickly see profits return there. But that 14 hurst a lot to see.","positive"
"Big Bear  Market","","positive"
"Advice","Hey everyone very new to trading have been doing research about different sorts of strategies and technical analysis So far have been struggling a lot and haven't been able to identify what works for me. Was wondering what those who have been successful and able to make large profits use or have any advice.  Also I'm looking for the god of trading to show me their ways if that is you please reach out haha","positive"
"TDOC Loss Porn from the guy who also lost $9K on PTON","","negative"
"51k in losses span of 2 years took out a 30k loan at 14 apr in Feb and lost that in a month. I belong behind Wendys","","negative"
"HOOD Puts","Robinhood has its earnings today and last night it broke that its plans on firing 9 of its employees. Puts on Robinhood Dont mind if I do.","positive"
"greed is a sin and I will repent tomorrow morning.","","negative"
"the bill hwang arrest","I am of the opinion that the arrest of bill hwang is driven more towards sending a message to hedge funds about fucking with rich people's money.  However that blowup should have been a signal of what's to come. Reflecting on issues with Melvin capital Cathie woods ark and anything Cramer touches it should be clear that the experts are pretty much taking the money and burning it in front of rich idiots.   My question is thus what will these greedy hedge funds and managers do once shtf","neutral"
"Trunk of the night","This is a for real question i know mods im not support to post til i get more karma.   ampx200B  For real if i dont want to go back to school or be a fool. Where is fastest way to see how financial markets work.","neutral"
"How a rogue VIX spike last week predicted the current market turmoil. Update","gtPt. 1  42022   gt   gtThe rogue VIX spike that leaked out today to spark that morning selloff has happened three other times since Corona on green market days. In all three other instances the spike has been followed by a 20 volatility increase within two trading days afterwards.   gt   gtI started to notice a pattern related to the rogue VIX spikes that will appear completely out of nowhere to cause market selloffs before getting pushed back down by the Fed to keep the markets healthy.   In the three other times that these have suddenly leaked out on green market days there has been a VIX increase of 1820 occur within 2 trading days afterwards.  ampx200B  gtPt. 2  42122   gt   gtUpdate That rogue VIX spike appearing the middle of a green market yesterday has foretold of major volatility increase 4 times now.   gt   gtUpdate to my post yesterday  I recognized something behind the scenes during trading yesterday that I had only observed 3 other times since the corona recovery began.  A  rogue VIX spike anomaly that seemingly leaks out mid day during an otherwise healthy green market.  It appears briefly enough to disrupt the entire market momentarily before getting smothered back down minutes later.     It has only ever happened 3 other times to us during a green market in that manner and had been followed immediately by a major volatility crash to the market.   gt   gtIt would  now seem this is somewhat of an undeniable feature not a glitch as It has now happened 4 times under those exact conditions and every single time it has foretold us that a major volatility increase about to take place within the markets.  Pt. 3  Volatility Suppression and Patterns  Here's my assessment of the situation how I picked up on this strange pattern and what I have concluded is happening.   So what is happening  Why would this occur  First let's get you caught up to what VIX even is  ampx200B  gtThe Volatility Index VIX measures investors confidence of market health and signals the level of fear or stress in the stock marketusing the indexes as a proxy for the broader marketand hence is known as the Fear Index. The higher the VIX the greater the level of fear and uncertainty in the market because of this a major increase to VIX will cause markets to systematically sell off in computerized responsive trading.  You can start to gather from this relationship as to why VIX climbing unchecked at every COVID news update could be problematic to an already tense market in recovery.  The Federal Reserve recognized this importance as well and set in motion a plan to prevent it from continuing to repeat itself.   By June of 2020 it was apparent that the monthly volatility cycles were upending investors and was going to spiral into a larger full blown crash.   As part of the Fed's recovery outline a market recovery team was to be created affectionately known to us as the plunge protection team.   Their algos began to routinely show themselves during trading to prop up the major indexes and provided price support to entire sectors worth of companies stock so our then feeble markets didn't appear outwardly sick in what became known to many as fed pump mornings fed pumps money printer go brr etc..    This set in motion a dangerous policy of the Reserve algorithmically suppressing VIX to clamp it down and in the process engineer false market confidence to prevent skittish investors from fleeing the markets at the first sign of trouble.  All of these efforts were unprecedented it gave them a level of access and control to our financial markets that had never been seen and the unbridled ability to dictate much of the narrative driving the perception of our recovering economy. From that point on an all out market protection war to save us from ourselves was put underway.  And it worked a little too well.  It led to one of the strongest continuous bull markets in modern history and set the stage for that VShaped recovery that we were so promised.. but at what cost   The cost of lying to the markets falsely propping it up with strings and cheating volatility as a means to suppress the truth of how bad the situation really was to everyone.  And in the process enticing confident investors to pile into positions with margin debt at levels never before seen.  The suppression of volatility creates a debt to the market that must be paid.  It was in these efforts of market control and suppression that myself and others began to notice cracks leaking out that could not be explained.   The exaggerated midday price movements into end of day collapses pump like market behavior inexplicable microcrashes that dotted the recovery at every few month intervals and of course the questionable manipulation of VIX that seemingly defied all market health indicators.   It became apparent early on that clamping down VIX was something the Fed prized themselves on controlling and for that reason I began watching it just as much as I did my own stocks.  My trading grid contained VIX in the 1 spot followed by my long positionsinterested stocks and it was because of this  setup that I began to pick up on certain irregularities in its' price movement and correlating the effects of these movements on the market as a whole.  To truly understand why these rogue  spike movements jumped out at me you must understand that VIX has very unique price pattern tendencies and normally travels very naturally under live trading and has reactionary impulses that correspond to the current market health ie. climbs during red markets movement that will typically begin gradually while following a back and forth tug and pulling both directions before the next linear climb or drop interval starts  With the anomaly spikes when they begin you would witness an almost vertical launch formation and price climb happen in just minutes.  It would skip entire intervals of numbers per second ie. 11.2  11.3  11.8  12.1 etc.  As the spike was forming for these couple minutes the market goes into a state of paralytic shock and most every index starts to decline and sell off immediately in response.  The rogue price jump was always such that it went against the ongoing sentiment and movement of the live market and currently trending VIX direction large percentage jumps occurring in the midst of a green market which defied implicit behavior tendencies.  In addition there was always an immediate and successful attempt to crash the spike back down to regain market stability for the day to calm peoples nerves before giving the market the full VIX dose over the trading days immediately afterwards.  The only way you can witness these is to experience them while trading and observe the market wide effect and price paralysis that occurs when its forming.   If you were watching your stocks every day during Corona recovery markets you definitely experienced this.  Whether you noticed the relationship to VIX or not.  Why it matters  In the past when we have observed this behavior under healthy green markets it has signaled the point at which the markets are about to incur the volatility debt that the Fed has been sparing us from through their market control measures.  Where it goes from here or how long this market uncertainty lasts is unclear.   What is clear is that VIX has a long overdue climb to fulfill and a debt with the markets to reckon with.  It will be slowed down and even dialed back for periodic intervals to maintain stability and produce green markets but its' climb will likely persist as the pressure it creates is released in a controlled manner.  Which I do not believe has fully happened in spite of the pain this past week has wrought.  Position UVXY calls will be rewarded but should be treated with respecttake profits  and entered at appropriate times.  Puts will print as this process unfolds and the markets reconcile with the true state of affairs.  ampx200B  TLDR  The tape and glue that the fed has employed as a means to prop up a sickly market will spring a leak occasionally showing us how bad of shape the boat is really in the day before it takes on water.   An unintentional side effect of the Feds efforts in suppressing VIX and propping up our markets has berthed a type of early warning alarm that seems to go off in the days before giving you a chance to get a head of it with your trades.  As this most recent one did for me with UVXY calls.","negative"
"Trojan Condom Maker Cautions About Potential Recession Risk","Bloomberg  The maker of Arm amp Hammer baking soda and Trojan condoms cautioned about a possible recession in its firstquarter earnings report.  Church amp Dwight Co. told investors Thursday that its well positioned for a potential recessionary environment given that 40 of our portfolio is considered value products. The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter with gross domestic product contracting at a 1.4 annual rate.  Consumers and businesses are spending at a healthy clip the Commerce Departments figures showed Thursday but a swollen trade deficit was a big drag on growth. Church amp Dwights cautionary language stands out because few consumer companies have brought up a recession in their earnings reports. Several have pointed to strong underlying demand despite inflation.  A recession is generally defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative change in GDP. Economists put the chance of a recession in the next 12 months at 27.5 according to 40 respondents in a Bloomberg survey in early April.  Church amp Dwight has raised prices on 80 of its products over the past year and plans more increases for fabric care and cat litter in July but they havent been enough to stem rapidly rising costs.   The company said it would incur an additional $85 million in expenses for 2022 primarily due to higher oil and transportation prices bringing its fullyear inflation forecast to $240 million. That will result in earnings per share growth of 4 at the low end of the prior guidance.  We expect to experience higher inflation at a faster rate than our price increases take effect Chief Executive Officer Matthew Farrell said in a statement. Church amp Dwight also plans to combat rising costs with productivity initiatives and changes in product pack sizes.  SourceBloomberg","negative"
"Coke Pumping","I may not be the smartest ape in the bunch but when Musk says hes buying Coca Cola Im buying calls on COCA COLA $69 sounds like the number that we can hit.   ","positive"
"Should I short New York Times","Hear me out. Since New York Times has 50M followers and are basically paid for eyeballs.  The 50M followers on Twitter are basically spam bot accounts. They rarely receive 50 to 100 interactions per post.   So when papa Elon goes to war with spam bots how do we make money off of it.","neutral"
"What are the successful IPO since 2019","Im not very retarded Im learning the skill.  I do remember the craze of Beyond Burger in 2019. I can remember a IPO still above its IPO $ since.  Rivian Just kidding.","positive"
"Which Fintech stock do you prefer  Block vs PayPal","Block is now down 60 percent in a year PayPal is down whopping 66 percent in a year  I personally prefer Block over PayPal at this point ","negative"
"Elon musk is done with selling TSLA","Elon musk is done selling Tesla stock $TSLA  Elon Musk sold around $4 billion worth of Tesla shares as he moved to buy Twitter but he tweeted that no further Tesla stock sales are planned after today  Link  thC3TzxdGRhCoImOaCTcxw","neutral"
"Google play this upcoming split","TLDR BUY GOOGLE IN JUNE AND AFTER IT SPLITS IN JULY AND THEN GOES BACK UP GO 230 SELL HALF AND KEEP THE OTHER HALF FOR A FEW YEARS.  Okay retards ik google just missed earnings and is bleeding down to 2.3k. I also know lots of you fuckers lost 10s of thousands on HMHC. Good news for you all and myself its summer and theres lots of work during the summer. GET A JOB OR TWO. Now you have till June to get your play money and DCA into googlebasically  buy a bit every week or when it goes down from ur paycheck. Now by July 16 your goal is to get at least one stock of googleafter the split u will have 20. Lets say it stays the same price at 2.3k you will have 20 shares each worth 115. Last time google was this low it was when it first became a ticker Also if you retards want to buy options and gamble I think a good bet would be the 3.3k options for August 19 2022 as they carry the most risk to rewards ratio.  Now after split the price is likely to double within a few weeks to a month. Why Because it hasnt dropped below 1k in 5 years and its going to 115. When it reaches 230 or double ur price per sharedepending on when u started DCA or how well u did sell half and get ur money back. Now u have 10 shares that are likely to go back to 1k in about 3 years and you got ur initial investment back.  Position NONE have a summer job and will post an update when I do start buying.","positive"
"Had better expectation from AMZN  $15k in loss all green value will be zero tomorrow   didnt realize RIVN linkage though it was so loud and clear in prev report","","negative"
"I escaped gotta love that 2 year theta gang. Actually made like 400 ","","positive"
"$UAN Earnings YOLO  52 AH","","positive"
"Which platform to use as an international investor ","There's been massive dips recently in the US market especially in the tech sector and I would love to start investing . What Platform would you recommend  Is capital.com a good option I also found interactive brokers. Apologies if this is asked alot here but I could not find any definite answer thank you .","neutral"
"I closed my Dwac calls and holding puts. What a luck.","","negative"
"$ACB Key Reversal Day After Hitting 6Year Low","Vulture short sellers failed to exploit $ACB's Reverse HampS  Double Bottom. Instead of having a big selloff after hitting 6year lows $ACB rallied and closed above its onemonth downtrend 5day moving average and previous day's high. All amounting to a technical Key Reversal Day.  Key Reversal Days are often found at top or bottom of major trends.   Key Reversal Day Explained Incredible Charts Key Reversal   formatpngampautowebpamps90765d8896b5f2889b7c2eec574596c0b3a1dae2","positive"
"Nobody said free speech is free. Elon Musk sells 4B worth of Tesla stock.","Elon Musk sold around $4 billion worth of Tesla shares  ","neutral"
"Prosecutors search Deutsche Bank HQ in money laundering investigation.","Prosecutors federal police and other officials searched Deutsche Banks headquarters in Frankfurt on Friday in a move Germanys largest lender said was linked to suspicions of money laundering it had reported to the authorities.  ","neutral"
"I lost money but Im better than market should I be happy or sad","","negative"
"I am one with the Zucc","","positive"
"Why compete with quants in options","Quants can't even compete with other quants. There is an exponential skill gap between the geniuses at Renaissance Technology and everybody else  Citadel Jane Street and many others. Literally the microsecond that a report is published their computers price it in. While you spend 5 hours thinking about options the computer spends .005 seconds and executes 1000x more options than you ever will in your lifetime  at a net profit. Remember these are quants not banks or speculators.  To put this into perspective   Renaissance Technologies  310 employees $130B AUM. $420millionemployee. PhD education.  Citadel 1400 employees $35B AUM. $25millionemployee. Also PhD education or masters.  wallstreetbets. 50000 daily users probably in debt.","neutral"
"Decided to get into options to start of 2022","","negative"
"Yesterday I predicted that everyone making a short play around $HOOD earnings would take a bath. Get fucked","_predictionopinion_everyone_here_holding     formatpngampautowebpamps2da6ea514990b27024ae5703ea61f6f62dc59990","positive"
"SOFI 125k YOLO. No 50k student debt reduction makes this a good bet IMO..","","positive"
"It is time to SQUEEZE $COCK and $BALLS","The moment has finally arrived. Wall street cannot get away with manipulating $COCK and $BALLS forever. Already it has gone on for too long.   $COCK and $BALLS to Uranus ","neutral"
"2022 May Be Bad For IPO Activity But Good For IPO Investors","After recordhigh levels of global IPO activity in 2021 volatile market conditions have resulted in a significant slowdown during Q12022. However this year's fewer but potentially more testable IPOs with more reasonable valuations could be a good year for longterm value investors.     Hot IPOs have fallen dramatically and SPAC fad has passed now earning a profitable matters again  formatpngampautowebpampsabd7089fdc6c3e3f4034ffabdb289d51e72deaab  formatpngampautowebpamps9065ed6e42c543a63f92944bcea901af4a7d3088","neutral"
"$WISH playing pikaboo with a trend line","Rumor has it  if it sees its shadow on May 5th it'll be another 12 months of bag holding  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsdb73a015267076a9d7a98f63edb944c93d9d71d8","positive"
"Follow up to my terrible screen shot from Monday. I erased 5 years of losses on Monday with 1 big win with NVDA. Today I Add to those awesome freakin gains with a another big win from NVDA I LOVE AMERICA","","positive"
"Robinhood shares fall as losses widen on shrinking revenue and MAUs","  Losses per share 45 cents vs. 36 cents expected   Revenue $299 million vs. $355.8 million expected  Robinhood also reported that MAUs declined to 15.9 million from 17.7 million in the year ago period and 17.3 million in the previous quarter. The companys average revenue per user came in at $53 down from $137 a year prior.","negative"
"VOO vs VTI Risks vs Reward","Many people think VTI is a safer bet than VOO because it contains more companies but I'm here to tell you that this is not the case.  I have created an excel sheet that can compare two different ticker symbols and tell you the ideal weight between the two lowering the portfolios overall volatility.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsf189c0ef85519dbe915f07cd3bf62beae6f2ddcd  Because VOO has a greater mean return the higher the amount of VTI the lower the return. However having some VTI will decrease your standard deviation of return ensuring less volatile growth.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps6d64dbeed47abd6244df3695c81a95dca1b2a977  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps03f8e1b754aae19b8820f0e6fd2739b6cc57e9eb  I have highlighted the portfolios of highest return and lowest volatility. As you can see if your portfolio has just VOO and VTI the more VOO you have the greater your return. However a portfolio of 52 VOO and 48 VTI is the most consistent. Owning any more VTI will result in similar volatility with less mean returns meaning you are taking on unnecessary risk.","neutral"
"I SPY an AAPL in a TSLA  Scalpers Delight  429"," April 28  Recap   AAPL  formatpngampautowebpamps278eaf5846dba8d57ed54d761e153dc52bfc99f9   TSLA  formatpngampautowebpamps2ffbfed8d3922ed2cec463cb84edc6f6f559a911   SPY  formatpngampautowebpamps99d417277990324391148cb9e35cbde901343c8b  formatpngampautowebpampsff9f2e7463a0cf2c26a15a44b4044ae1420802af   Economic Calendar  April 29 2022  formatpngampautowebpamps4149ef0e7844fe4a7b48037d5658069b7f655b88   SPY  April 29  Technical Analysis  formatpngampautowebpamps3047c6fe8741a1e5e62cc0fcad9e452837a76fcf   Break 424.67 and look for 426.23  426.89  Break 426.89 and look for 428.81  429.77  Break 429.77 and look for 431.60  432.13  Break 431.60  432.13 and look for 433.86  435.53  Lose 422.99  422.02 and look for 420.66  Lose 420.66 and look for 419.68  418.74  418.10  Lose 418.10 and look for 416.55  415.13  Lose 415.13 and 412401 could come quick.  formatpngampautowebpamps7b15423684b8a851939b1f304b414c891977026b   SPY Rectangle 53 Exp.   Lose 423.69  422.41 and look for 417.28  415.81  415.02  Lose 415.02 and look for half  at 409.27 with full  at 402.77  Break 428.93  429.63 and look for half  at 435.44 with full  at 441.90  formatpngampautowebpampsef5237aeff6d7286deb9f0ac9e8e6ac404a9a99e  Notes   Neutral 440449. Bullish 450. Bearish at 439 and below.  I like calls if we break 424.67 to 426.23  426.23 and leaving runners to 428.81  429.77  432  I like puts if we break 422.99  422.02 to 420.66 and leaving runners to 419.68  418.74  418.10 416.55  15 min RSI 66.7 near overbought  bullish  65 min RSI 55.33 neutral  bullish  65 min. RSI bullish divergence playing out  formatpngampautowebpamps8c278a56b66f6c4f5b1b7e0c2f339ec95839861b   5 min. MACD bearish divergence  formatpngampautowebpamps3cdb75d8b1a7b870c7c94a6afb2adc3e0dfe5861   TSLA Rectangle 52 Exp.     Median 870.61  861.20    Lose 833.40  821.70 and look for half measure at 779.90 with full measure at 733.18    Break 909.16  927.23 and look for half measure at 961.25 with full measure at 1007.68  formatpngampautowebpamps756dd8496682a66590942c5f4fe93b35f1f79801   AAPL Rectangle  53 Exp.     Median 160.51  159.95  159.15    Lose 156.60  155.38 and look for half measure at 151.44 with full measure at 147.16    Break 163.10  165.12 and look for half measure at 168.44 with full measure at 172.68  formatpngampautowebpampse42c411c2d83418d72c220eb0c67031adcb8e4e2   Positions  Had to catch up on work after the vacation. Missed so many great plays today   formatpngampautowebpamps3b1071b58d49b5e3b922eecb7d2c23986412e61d  Thanks for reading  NightMan  ampx200B  See you Apes on 53","positive"
"ARKK Puts. I Sold 10 To Recover My Cost Basis. Max Possible Gain is $2kgt$80k. Currently Up 600.","","positive"
"Top 5 day on your day trading watch list","what's your top 5 day trading watch list not the gappers  what's your old reliable stonks you look at every day","neutral"
"RC is so hot 35k GME YOLO","","positive"
"my portfolio finally gonna see some green tomorrow","","positive"
"Amazon FDs 630 to 10900","","positive"
"Recession is fake news","Don't believe what the news tell us Recession is fake DEPRESSION is coming  Imagine a world where  1. hyperinflation is on the rampant but the Fed only has a 0.25 rate hike 2. GDP 1.4 for the first time since 2020 while Dr. Fauci told us that US is not more in pandemic phase 3. our sleepy president just told us he is not too concerned with possibility of recession while still work with NATO to send more weapons to Ukraine disregarding Russia's nuclear war warning 4. only Microsoft now beats earnings Facebook not counted as the bar was low Apple Google Amazon and Netflix lost billions of market cap this week  Some apes here may say Bro you are an idiot. Recession helps in fighting inflation. How many puts you have  But this time is the other way around the recession soon depression is caused by hyperinflation so how could it fights against hyperinflation now It is likely that we have depression and stagflation in next few years.  I don't have any puts. I bought a lot of puts expiring April 15 around where the bull trap peaked so I guessed I do not have this shortterm option trading luck.  Instead I will continue DCAing into my position. For my own record almost all the stocks that I DCAed into SHOP NVAX and some tickers that are not more allowed to be mentioned in this sub due to dwindling market cap never break even. And I plan to DCA into QQQ and SPY. So good luck everyone","negative"
"Hood YOLO vlad gonna make me rich. Fading world on earnings","","positive"
"How does one trade oil futures","I have a question for everyone. I'm the guy whom sunk the ruble initially and wondering how I can make some money off of it.","neutral"
"Online legal documents...disruption time","Ok just a brief question....I have been researching online legal documents for the US. There seems to be two major players. The bigger one has floated and has a value of $7b....forgive me...I know smallfry...there are people on here that like to lose that much before lunch.  But wondering why there is no free alternative  displaying ads and collecting data rather than selling subscriptions.  Any thoughts on this  Given my previous posts I hope I have earned the right to a few good responses.","neutral"
"Twitter puts","If Elon is using margin based off of Teslas value to pay for Twitter how low does Tesla need to go before it sinks the deal and is this priced into Twitters puts it sure doesnt look like it.","negative"
"First and last time trading options.","","negative"
"thanks jeff  wish i wouldve bought more","","positive"
"Ford Yolo pt. 999  Up and down with the wind","","negative"
"$AMZN 2800P exercise after hours $12000 Gain","","positive"
"Elon Sold another $4.5 B on 28 APR","No further Tesla sales planned after today Musk Tweeted to his 83 million followers last night although prearranged sales are still possible given the size of the billionaire's equity commitment in the Twitter deal.  In fact another SEC filing was made public early Friday showing Musk had offloaded between $4.5 and $5 billion in shares on April 28.  ampx200B  When will you clowns learn         cm_venYAHOOcm_venYAHOO","negative"
"Gather around and let me tell you why SPY will go below 400 soon","Alright listen up retards. Im a terrible trader and everything Im about to say is most likely nothing new but definitely nothing old.   1. Fed tightening. You all know this and they have minutes next week. Most likely a .5 hike putting us at .75 and then guidance on future hikes. On top of that rolling off the fed balance sheet. They are talking about doing this but we will see what happens next week.   2. This is basically an extension of number 1 but the fed tightening is causing dollar strength. Generally when this happens assets and equities go down.   3. This plays off number 2. The strength of the dollar relative to other currencies is getting high. Other nations such as China and Japan are getting weaker currencies relative to the dollar. This is bad because they are the main buyers of US treasuries esp Japan. You have a weaker currency and that means you get less treasuries for your money meaning purchases will go down on treasuries. This means bond yields will go up.  4. Debt to GDP. The amount of debt we have to GDP is over 120. The numbers came out today that GDP is lowering. Our debt hasnt lowered. So Im guessing our debt to gdp is going higher. The fed will definitely account for this in their next meeting and imo have no choice but do something about that.   All in all the fed tightening can not go above 1.25 before breaking something. Which means they have the hike in May of .5 and then another of .5 and then thatll be the top. Reason being if you look at where they got to with every other tightening cycle it has been about half of the previous cycle. In 2018 they got to 2.5 before they had to change direction.  During all of this tightening cycle you will see the stock market continue to go down until some black swan or big event occurs. Then due to this event the fed will have no choice but to reverse course.  When the fed does this it will mean everything will go to the absolute moon.   There is no timeframe I have for any of this other than before the end of the year. I am not giving anyone any advice and I am not providing sources on any of this information.  Captain Antwat","negative"
"I'm beginning to feel like the legend is in fact True. I will accept the Null.","I don't understand how every time I see his face whatever he mentions is actually down. It's around 90 of the time.cvid6343f9c35f314bf4ab745785119647fbcvid6343f9c35f314bf4ab745785119647fb  I had some trouble posting this but I added the link above and supplied a picture preview. Casual mind melting advice grab you microwaved fish sandwich its Jim Cramerformatpjpgampautowebpampsad24ec212d33f4566094e7090a0014a7809410e2","negative"
"YOLO Doordash short.....","","positive"
"I got my PROSHARES shareholder letter a day wasn't happy with what I read.","FINRA is aiming to shut off retails ability to trade inverse and leveraged funds along with about 40 different types of investment vehicles. I guess too many people are at the party now and the hosts are getting sweaty.  There is a site that PROSHARES  links in their letter I can link it here. It gives a small overview of the situation.  ","negative"
"JPY weakness indicating near term global crash","If you look at last crashes like the Asian Crisis 1998 Dot Com Bubble beginning of the 2000s and subprime aka lehman shock you see that particularly JPY was every time on a rising weakness against the USD before everything went tits up.  And why Because of expected AND real interest differential increased within a very short period like 2 years between US and JP or basically between US and the world.  Every time the FED tried to increase interest rates gently while economy showed signs of overheating to avoid a hard landing and guess what happened Oh yeah not successful.  So how successful do you think FED will be this time They have already showed that FED personell is even more uninformed about making a well educated guess compared to last time so in my opinion chances are even higher that hard landing will not be avoided.  Whats your opinions  Cheers","negative"
"Apple Earnings beat","       EPS $1.52 vs. $1.43 estimated   Revenue $97.28 billion vs. $93.89 billion estimated up 8.59 yearoveryear   iPhone revenue $50.57 billion vs. $47.88 billion estimated up 5.5 yearoveryear   Services revenue $19.82 billion vs. $19.72 billion estimated up 17.28 yearovertear   Other Products revenue $8.81 billion vs. $9.05 billion estimated up 12.37 yearoveryear   Mac revenue $10.44 billion vs. $9.25 billion estimated up 14.73 yearoveryear   iPad revenue $7.65 billion vs. $7.14 billion estimated down 1.92 yearoveryear   Gross margin 43.7 vs. 43.1 estimated ","positive"
"META","FB stock dipped by 21.32 in April stock opens at $224.55 and closed at $174.95 stock is working below 20 EMA which shows weakness in stock and RSI is working at 34.32 oversold zone and at best place to make fresh entry in stock currently stock is bearish in nature.The average volume of the stock is 39407kday Total market cap of MSFT is $474.M USD.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps6f0da0d2d8f1647e1b1dab22777ca9003ca779e9","negative"
"Futures instead of SPY","Has anyone thought about using SampP500 E mini futures to yolo away their life savings rather than buying and selling SPY calls They are extremely leveraged and the Regulation T rules don't apply here so you can put down as little as 5 on a contract. Seems like you retards would be chomping at the bit to get a hold of them.","neutral"
"AstraZeneca looks bullish Technical Analysis.","Hello everyone  A few days ago I posted my views on GME but it apparently got deleted I don't know why whatever be it I'm back with another Technical analysis of mine would love to hear what you guys have to say about it.  ampx200B  Script Name AstraZeneca PLC  TICK AZN  View Bullish  ampx200B  Weekly timeframe view   1. AstraZeneca had a breakout with increasing volumes recently and subsequently it hit a new alltime high. 2. After hitting the alltime high AZN fell for 2 weeks straight and this week it has taken support from the previous resistance levels thus confirming that the resistance has now become a support zone. The volume confirmation solidifies this view.  AZN on Weekly Timeframeformatpngampautowebpamps37639726a7af0306d69e1daef77c337f2c799f78  Daily timeframe view   1. If we slap in a Fibonacci from the last low to the recent high we can see that the price has taken support from 38.2 levels. 2. Not only that but we can also see that the 38.2 level coincides with the 50EMA not to be mentioned that it also coincides with the weekly timeframe support zone. 3. It is safe to say that if the market remains bullish AZN can surely hit a new alltime high very soon.  AZN on Daily Timeframeformatpngampautowebpamps9c053e4b7998b2e3fdd32e440510618e2a2e5fcd  Points to be noted   1. It might seem that my technical analysis on AZN is a bit late since in the last trading session it already had a good bullish movement but what I believe is that yesterday's movement might give a little pullback since it might have been due to the results.  Disclaimers   1. Please perform your own analysis before taking any positions. 2. Please let me know if I'm violating any sub rules by posting such analysis. Asked since my last analysis got deleted.  TLDR  I'm bullish on AstraZeneca.  ampx200B  Thank You happy trading.  ampx200B  EDIT 1 Entered at the opening today since it was a gap down.","positive"
"Dumb question","If twitter goes private how will it attract and retain top talent since most tech companies offer huge options packages to get the best Devs. Obviously besides giant salaries what else can they offer","neutral"
"Nasdaq Q1 Earnings Report as of 280422","I've gone through and created a spreadsheet for Nasdaq's companies for Q1 2022 as of 28042022 I will be updating it regularly to accurately gather data for the market. I cover 5 main aspects with their  change YoY.  1. Revenue 2. Net Income 3. Diluted EPS 4. Total Assets 5. Total Liabilities  Give me some honest feedback   If you are interested in my research I post daily on the Twitter with analysis covering cryptocurrency stocks NFTs and general economy link in my acc.  Nasdaq Earnings Reports Q1 2022ouid113415352854528120630amprtpoftrueampsdtrue","neutral"
"Anyone notice option trading acted weird today","I was trading alibaba and options didnt start trading until 935 est. so i placed a market order for the 103 call for alibaba and now im 30k in debt when i thought the option only costs $3 per contract until it updated. I guarantee yall autists fell for the same thing like me and got into a margin call because options didnt update and bought on margin somehow.","negative"
"The boy who lived with Robinhood yolo is back at it again Uber time ","","positive"
"Orbital outposts are the next big thing for space investment","Commercial space has been growing exponentially over the past decade ever since SpaceX proved a space startup could actually grow big and compete with defense contractors. While the launch vehicle market is saturated the next big thing is spaceasaservice where companies governments and research institutions can rent space and time for a particular component or experiment rather than have to design and launch an entire satellite from scratch  Essentially a market for an Amazon AWS in space is opening up. The US Government through the Defense Innovation Unit DIU has been funding such project particularly the companies Nanoracks Sierra Nevada and Arkisys.   While two of these are not publicly traded Arkisys appears to be in the middle of a fundraising round open to the public   It seems these days space companies are prepping to shoot to the MOON literally  Question Do you think now is the time to invest in space or are other sectors more primed for growth","positive"
"$AMZN future loss porn tomorrow...I took ujusthereyoz to task for no gain porn shots...here u go sir.","","negative"
"Am I doing this rite","","negative"
"Uber vs Lyft  Better pick","Uber is down 43 percent in 12 months and Lyft 47 percent.. which one is better buy at this point  Why","negative"
"From 10k to loser to 50k challenge using SPY 0DTE option trading  Update 6"," I couldn't trade much due to my work this month. Traded only few days in a week and made good return.  I don't want to guess the market direction. Rather I started following the direction trade with it. Seems like this is the key that I was missing. Stop loss is another major thing I was missing earlier. With both I am running fast to meet my goal.  ampx200B  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps469bb4aeb07f9804e9e9b3735a025bee17657052  ampx200B  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps4a2deb7c4231691fd39965554f86608c6bbc434e","positive"
"Deutsche Bank HQ in Frankfurt raided over suspected money laundering","German authorities have raided Deutsche Banks headquarters in Frankfurt over suspected money laundering at the countrys largest lender.  Officers from the financial regulator BaFin the federal police and the Frankfurt public prosecutors office launched a raid on the banks glasspanelled offices  known locally as the twin towers  on Friday morning after securing a search warrant from the local court  ","neutral"
"How to buy puts on your own portfolio","The past year has taught me that if there is one thing I am good at it is picking bad stocks. No matter what trades I make I always lose money on them.   To hedge against the continual downwards trend of my investments I would like to short myself. Is there a broker that will write puts on the total value of my portfolio","negative"
"Cathie Wood Stock Pick Teladoc Sinks 40 After Slashing Forecast","","negative"
"any good Put for DWAC","What's everyone's view on DWAC Since Elon is taking over Twitter i think this will fall hard and fast","negative"
"I uh shorted Jeff Bezos","","positive"
"The trade deficit by itself reduced GDP by a whopping 3.2 percentage points","Most of the weakness stemmed from a soaring U.S. international trade deficit. The gap in goods trade for instance averaged a record $113 million in the first quarter vs. $87 billion in same quarter one year ago.  The trade deficit by itself reduced GDP by a whopping 3.2 percentage points the third highest number on record. Imports soared 17.7 while exports fell by 5.9 dynamics reflecting pandemicrelated supplychain constraints.  U.S. trade deficit in goods jumps 17.8 to record $125.3 billion due to soaring imports and inflation Some Longterm Factors have matured We May Not Go Back LowInflation Era  U.S. imports of oil autos and consumer goods such as cell phones jumped 11.5 to a record $294.6 billion in March.  Exports have rebounded more slowly but they have also risen to alltime highs. Consumer spending is still strong. Consumer spending and business investment the two main pillars holding up the economy were both fairly strong. Household outlays rose 2.7 after adjusting for inflation.  So it still have some room for US economy recovery.  formatpngampautowebpampsc49d49dafe10e8b2f1cdfe779d85b77592389c1b  FutureTalking","negative"
"Energy Transfer has Earnings on May 4th","Energy Transfer $ET earnings date is May 4th and this company is severely undervalued. Many analysts say this stock should hit 14 usd and keep growing. The Russia Ukraine conflict and inflation has been driving up the oil market this might be big gains lets me know what y'all think I'm up 22 in this and I just put call options","positive"
"The world needs Jim Cramer","Jim may not always be right. In fact he rarely is. However Jim has consistently been bullish on basically everything for his entire life and for that we should thank him.  When Bear Stearns was going to zero who was bullish on it Jim Cramer.  When Didi was getting hosed because of delisting rumors who was bullish on it Jim Cramer.  And right now. As it seems everyone is bearish on the entire world due to a Russian war China lockdowns supply chain issues and rising inflation... Who is on TV ranting about how stonks only go up and everything is a buy That's right.  Jim Cramer.  We need Jim because he literally is one of the few personalities online that combats FUD. Without that psycho telling you to buy the news would be all bearish garbage.   Jim may not give good stock advice but he does give us hope.","neutral"
"AMZN insider was right WTF","","positive"
"The majority of retail options traders are no different than gambling addicts. It's actually really sad and not something we should meme about bros","You guys really need to stop trying to daytrade and stop fucking buying options. The overwhelming majority of retail investors lose money trading options. Meaning you are even more poor than the grandma that just puts her money in a 0.05 interest savings account. Brokerages and banks are selling you the dopamine hit associated with the delusion of getting rich quick. It's just gambling.           Stop gambling on options and start building a mountain of stocks. Find companies that you believe in and that you want to invest in for 10 years or more. Being right in the long run is infinitely easier than being right in the short run. Being right in the short run is just about impossible.      The best holding period is forever.  Warren Buffett","negative"
"AMZN Earnings Gains","","positive"
"GME  How are you voting","I just got my proxy vote for the 2022 Annual Meeting. How are y'all going to vote If there's one company that the proxy votes will actually make a difference it's probably GME.","neutral"
"Book Recommendations for Options Trading","Are there any books that are considered The Gold Standard regarding options trading  Does anyone have recommendations for options trading books that were released in the last few years I've been trading Stonks for about 15 years but never tried options.  Feel like it's time to become another beaten down broke gambler but would rather read a great book so I can blame it on someone next year when I'm broke.  TIA.","neutral"
"Soo I bought this put 3 min before the market closed. What should I expect for tomorrow Will i see 50100","","positive"
"timed exit on stocks","Does anyone use a timed exit as part of their strategy By that I mean if i open a position now close the position at pre specified time eg after 24hrs irrespective of whether the trade is losing or winning.","positive"
"Gotta love that CYN over the past 5 days.","","positive"
"HOOD will moon on ER three solid reasons why","Many are very bearish on the HOOD because of how shitty it is but it will rocket today in AH and here is why  1. Cramer is bearish 2. WSB is bearish  Those two are never right NEVER and they now both agree on something. This to me says shorts will go TITS UP  A third reason thats more analytical is they released press news abt layoffs. The classical release bad news before ER to cause a squeeze scenario. Ive seen it when PTON announced the production delayshalt before ER then they went and rocketed right after ER on a huge short squeeze.   My positions I am broke cuck both financially and mentally so Im not sure what to buy. Im down to my last $50ish dollars and Im thinking of putting $20 on spreads or one naked call. Not going all in just incase it somehow does drop against all odds   Edit I bought 4 1212.5c expiring tmr for $5 each. Big dreams riding on it  Edit 2 GUH  Edit3 I still think this was a good play. A 20 pump isnt unrealistic if they had reported some good news. I had debit spreads so IV didnt matter that much. Hopefully I can glitch exit out of them for .01 tmr on open though. Overall I think it was a solid gamble. Downside is 100 upside is 1000  WSB and Cramer were bearish and that layoff news is classical bear bait pre ER. Its just an unlucky 1100000 chance. You simply cant win em all and Cramer didnt lie this time IG","positive"
"I've been feeling good looking at your loss porn here's mine","","negative"
"WTF did jimmy say about amazon $AMZN stock plunges after 4 billion dollar loss...","","negative"
"I'm horny for $MTCH","Match Group the parent company of basically every dating app except Bumble will be announcing its Q1 earnings on Tuesday.  A few points    Analysts  across the board have a price target of 2x the current valuation.    tons of insider buying at $108 see EDGAR filings a few weeks ago    Unlike Netflix it is impossible to share a dating app account. Every single dude I know throws down $17 per month or whatever it is on hinge and tinder premium.    it is following the exact same trajectory that bumble did going into its last earnings call.    I just like the stock and the service the company provides.   In for 15 $81 calls at 5.9 with a 513 expiry.","positive"
"Autonation is next","Today I closed out my position on CVNA.  I had $120 0123 puts that I bought for $18 and sold for $64.50.  I didn't close them out because I thought that CVNA had bottomed but rather because I think there is a better place to put my money once the easy money was made on CVNA.  AN is not a high growth company with a ton of potential to disrupt their industry.  They are old world.  They sell cars and they do it reasonably well.  They actually make money and for that I applaud them.  Here's the deal though  They had a really good year in 2021 and now the market seems to think that they are going to have that kind of a year every year from now on.  Here's their annual EPS for the last 11 years  2011 $1.91       2012 $2.52      2013  $3.04     2014 $3.52     2015  $3.89     2016  $4.15    2017  $4.43     2018  $4.34     2019  $4.97     2020  $4.30     2021  $18.31  One of these things is not like the others.  What I find hard to understand is how the stock can have gone up 3x when the earnings went up 4x for one year.  During the 9 years leading  up the start of the pandemic and the insanity that we are seeing now the stock ranged from around $35 per share to around $55 per share.  I believe that the world  is going to return to normal.  Supply chain issues will get dealt with cars will depreciate again and Autonation will return to making around $4.50 per share with a little bit of growth.  When that happens I can't help but think that the market will price their stock the way it did in the past.  Position 10 x 0124 $95 puts and 10 x 0124 $115 puts","negative"
"If the price of global realestate is going up and up and no one thinks it's going to go down what if it crashes again  Similar to what happened in 2008.","Obviously it won't happen exactly the same as it did because the system's changed. But could we still 'Big Short' this And how do we 'Big Short' this if the market is going to crash soon and become rich asf","neutral"
"x paws Student loans payment pause why you invest","ampx200B  Student loans paused till 8312022.  Another extension.  Call me absolutely batshit insane.  Maybe I have too much wine in me.  I just have this weird feeling that maybe more people of my age 37ish have been playing the market because they aren't paying anything for their loans.  I know.  Sush    I promise Miguel Cardona will never see this    So let's say I have this friend that has a bunch of student loan debt.  During covid he didn't have to pay anything for his loans because of the pause I call it paws because I like my cat.  So he just put that money into the stock market.  And he lost probably 60 of it.  About 3k lost could've went into paying those loans last year.    Does anyone else have friends like this   If so how much money could've went to paying that down last year  And since we're on track for the rest of the year is anyone planning on paying anything this year  At all    Would anyone have any stocks if they had student loans they actually had to pay     Will the market crash when payments unpaws","negative"
"Musk SEC filing shows TESLA stock sales","A filing with the SEC by musk shows Tesla CEO has been selling stock with an amount of 3.15 million shares sold but announced in a tweet that there will be no further sales after today 42822  SEC filing   Tweet tYzzxt7NZsjGQlWNj6FAg","neutral"
"VXX still broken. Shares locked vulnerable to blow up next week","VXX the barclays vix etf still has not issued shares. If the market blows up next week wouldnt this thing snowball into a huge and I mean huge gamma squeeze forcing VXX call buying and other VIX hedges to blow up Some yolo calls available very cheap considering this thing hit 42 a few months ago and the SP500 is teetering at final support going into the biggest Fed Tightening meeting in 40 years","negative"
"6X trade on Amazon. 2.5kgt15.5k. Bought 15 minutes before close","","positive"
"At some point we have to simply accept that Elon is gonna be our new master and just bet on him","I'm not quite sober but bear with me  Elon is everywhere and he's taking over everything. At first it was the paying system and that was a success. Then the cars and after that space to be able to make his next project happen without anyone really realizing it the satellite internet.   Now he even owns the platform that holds your scummiest moments... why resist Even if you don't have an account he'll have your internet history with the receipts With the cars he'll know where you went and if you were careful while driving also giving him data on what your mood was probably like getting there.   Not to forgot the chips he wants to start implanting in peoples brains  Wanna go hide underground coucou he's there  Don't be ridiculous invest in Elon.   ...it's not like you have the choice. It has already begun","positive"
"Rocket Lab Launch Update","If you saw my previous post you'll know I was talking about a potential catalyst play that was coming up for Rocket Lab. If you haven't seen it and are curious feel free to look it up.  Anyway the launch that was supposed to happen LAST SATURDAY had been pushed back multiple times already and unfortunately has been pushed back AGAIN to Monday.  Hopefully this is the last time they blue ball me and just get it over with lol.  My thesis is still the same Rocket Lab succeeds market is happy stock goes up my calls print.  If not I just sell my calls.","positive"
"Market predictions will the fed increase rates by 50","The last time the fed increased rates by 25 the market went on a small run. If they go up 50 on May 4th who thinks the market is going up it down  I think its priced in for 50 but we still go down.","negative"
"Averaging Down","Is there a reason I shouldnt sell all my shares in a stock and then buy them back if Im trying to lower my average share price","neutral"
"my fellow autists you know what to do.Jim Cramer just said Cathy Woodarkk hasn't done her homework on the last 7 stock picks...it's call option time","","positive"
"Harnessing microbes as fertilizers","    Article discusses companies which are harnessing microbes Pivot Bio Kula Bio and Anuvia   To provide further background on the companies mentioned   Pivot Bio   their environmentally sound fermentation production process to their zero waste and zero footprint Pivot Bios microbes offer farmers a more efficient and sustainable nitrogen to fuel their crops.      Kula Bio   makes a costcompetitive biofertilizer that boosts a naturally occurring process to deposit meaningful amounts of nitrogen in the soil.     Anuvia   uses a multistep organic resource processing system to make use of organic materials that would otherwise be discarded. They use twostage hydrolysis process to form the dry homogenous granules of this novel plant nutrition solution.     Verde Agritech    wasn't directly mentioned in the article but they have recently announced the launch of Bio Revolution a new technology that enables the incorporation of microorganisms to Verdes multinutrient potassium fertilizers K Forte and BAKS sold internationally as Super Greensand  ","neutral"
"bear trap","   We're over sold hard everywhere.  Russia is only a slice of the pie like it's just one country out of how  many when it comes to the market  interest  rates shouldn't accumulate for this much dmg either it's less than a  year out which is short term when it comes to investing. and the rate increases are literally being spread out over a year to avoid exactly this chop but ppl are freaking out anyways.  china lock downs are super temporary in the grand scheme of things as well.  the entire market is oversold. This narrative is garbage.  all of this fear and fud is so short term and temporary. and in a year's time you won't have anything to worry about except buying back in at higher prices after taking a capital gains tax hit if you managed to sell for a profit this year.","negative"
"Europe Stock Market Manipulation","Seems like the stock market was manipulated all over Europe this morning and went down around 8 to go back right up again under the time span of 10 minutes. Some people speculate it's Russia or some sort of organized attack. The large caps went down and moved the market but the mids and smalls didn't do anything specialextraordinary.  Europe tries to figure out what happened and if new news are released don't mind sharing in this post I'm curious  EDIT They have excluded that it was their own systems fault and the dump and rise came from order book.  2 Edit It looks like a manipulation at least extraordinary. I don't intend to create fear in the markets but try to cover the news and the likely scenarios of what happend. I'm curious too  3 Edit People have now started to speculate that it might be IMF's fault the dump occurred. Write a comment if you've heard anything more about the speculations.  Swedish stock market todayformatpngampautowebpampsade5aa35982d5ee0acd89f297458776369957fbb","negative"
"Margin call search results blew up last Friday via Google trends","","negative"
"The 2022 Real Estate Collapse is going to be Worse than the 2008 One and Nobody Knows About It","There's going to be a lot of text here so all you smooth brain apes who are on reddit a text based website yet are still to retarded to read can skip to the end where there will be a very short summary a bottle of milk from your mother and a blankie.  First lets talk about the part of the real estate market that's gonna go bust that everyone knows about or at least that people who pay attention to this shit or read my previous DDs know about CMBS.  This is the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Market.  These are loans on commercial buildings that have been securitized bundled and sold to investors.  The following is an explanation of the CMBS issues I wrote for another DD over six months ago  The CMBS Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Bomb  This one is a bit different from the mess we had in 2008 with MBS mortgage backed securities because it's a different market with different rules and it's a smaller total market than MBS.  That said the problems here might actually be worse. There is a company called Ladder Capital formed out of the remnants of the Bear Stearns bond department that has struck an unusual deal with Dollar Store and they have a LOT of properties that are very very much coasting on made up mortgages. I could easily write like three pages on this one partnership alone but I'll just summarize instead and say these people learned absolutely nothing from 2008 except that it was a profitable scam that carried no jail time.  To understand just how bad the CMBS mess is you need to understand how CMBS' work. At first glance they're similar to regular MBS it's a bundle of tens or hundreds of mortgages for commercial properties they're divided into tranches usually six and the lowest tranches pay out the highest yields but also fail first. And now things get a little complex so I'm going to simplify like crazy here but this is the most important part to understand why this is all going to blow up.  A commercial building is an income generating property it's market value is derived from how much income it generates. The bank lending you the money will want you to put up some amount of collateral for the loan. If rents go up the amount of collateral you have to post goes down. If rent goes down the amount of collateral you have to post goes UP. Now the weird thing about CMBS loans is that if only half your building is rented you can just pay half your mortgage and whatever you owe for the other half of the building just gets added to the end of the loan. Now say you can't rent out the empty half of your building and you want to renegotiate the terms of your loan rather than just keep adding debt to the back of your loan. Well this is where the CMBS comes into play because all those different tranches The investors behind them have different incentives the guys at the lowest tranches don't want you to modify the loan because that means losses and they take those losses first while the guys in the highest tranche want to modify the loan because it generates more income for them and they're not eating any losses. Unfortunately for you in most CMBS agreements you need a supermajority of 7080 of the votes to get a loan modification.  So to lower rents to market rates and get the building rented out since you can't get a loan modification you the landlord have to write a check to the bank to make up the difference between the value of the building at the old higher rental rate and the value of the building at the new lower rate. Or you can just do nothing get an extra write off for your taxes and hope some sucker comes in and rents at the higher price or a different sucker comes along and buys the place from you making it their problem. This is why you'll see so many empty storefronts with ridiculous asking prices that the landlords won't budge on  it's because they can't.  I really really skimmed just the teeniest top of the surface on this subject but basically all those CMBS notes that are super toxic start coming due in March of 2022 and they're going to absolutely detonate the commercial property market. Many banks and investment groups will be destroyed when these go bad just like in 2008.  Video of Empty Stores in NYC  This is a video from a guy who just walked around downtown NYC showing all the empty stores and how the place basically looks like a dead mall now.  TIMEFRAME March 2022  Well I said March 2022 was when these shit CMBS notes were going to start detonatingcausing problems.  Let's check shall we  ampx200B  God that's a big shampoo commercial.formatpngampautowebpamps61734dd411a82c7f1ab2c6d68b750336a9454b9d  You see that little spike at the end of the head and shoulders before it really dives to new all time lows  Yeah that's the last day of February 2022.  Ok so that's 13 of the US real estate market what about the 23rds of the market that's residential  Well this is where it gets weird and how everyone including me kept missing it.  I've written before about the issues with the US housing market  housing units relative to population has actually increased over the last decade while homeownership rates have dropped and prices have skyrocketed.  Everyone who looks at the residential market thinks its being bought by residents and that all the people buying today are actually qualified buyers with good credit scores and jobs and such.  And that is true for all the people buying houses.  There is not a repeat of the 2008 subprime debacle with NINJA No Income No Job no Assets loans.  What is new  and whenever you get a financial crisis it's always ALWAYS driven in large part by a new type of financial instrument read debt  is the sheer number of homes being bought up by with cash and it's inferred these are all institutions and foreigners.  For example about $90 billion in US real estate was bought by foreigners in 2021.  Wall Street however blew that away hitting as high as 1in7 of all homes and 1in2 of all apartments.  Now people look at that record institutionalforeigner buying and think it's the explanation but the truth is even with those crazy numbers 6in7 homes and 1in2 apartments are still being bought by regular people often with again cash.  These purchases are frequently referred to as cash buys because the buyer just pays the seller cash.  However they don't actually have piles of cash lying around in freighters to pay for this stuff.  They take out loans. Specifically they take out loans on their equity assets.  Now this is where it starts getting sticky because institutions are not buying these houses and apartments as residences they're buying them as income generating properties.  In traditional home mortgage loans there are two things assessed the value of the house which acts as collateral for the loan and the borrower's ability to pay back said loan via wages or assets.  It's a relatively simple twofactor risk analysis.  Now let's look at what risks the Wall Street owned rental homes are subject to income generatedrental rates housing values stockderivative values interest rates urban planning crime rates and overall market returns.  So basically the money being loaned is getting assessed on a onefactor risk analysis value of assets under management AUM of the borrower.  But then that money is getting used to buy a whole bunch of housesapartments and all of a sudden it's subject to a whole horde of other risks and the original risk profile is more useless than you are with your compensated evening companionship after a couple drinks.  There's one other thing I haven't mentioned yet that's huge and the reason Wall Street never really messed around with buying up everyone's house before the 2008 crash.  And it's a big one  Liquidity.  More specifically  Liquidity of Assets.  Lemme say that one more time for the folks in the back recovering from barnyard animal sex gone wrong hearing loss   Liquidity of Assets  Wut mean  Glad you asked 'tard.  Liquidity of Assets LoA basically means how easy or hard it is to sell an asset.  Now one of the reasons wall street hedge funds and investment banks can do things like leverage up at 37.51 the theoretical max level they use or say 2001 the level Goldman is at according to the last 13F filing I read is because the money is backed by securities and derivatives and other financial instruments which are extremely liquid.  So if things go tits up like the Titanic the lender can force a sell off of this stuff very quickly to get their money back.  Now in reality this isn't true or Credit Suisse and Nomura wouldn't still be dragging around Archegos bags from last year and Bill Hwang couldn't have pulled a Reddit meme and avoided margin calls by not answering the phone yes that really actually in real life happened.  But in theory it is.  Now housing  Housing is illiquid as fuck.  It takes a lot of time and effort to sell a house.  Or to buy one.  There are special rules and whatnot from the federal government about what kind of collateral and stuff you need for a residential house.  2008 was so bad because the banks basically ignored all of those.  After 2008 one of the few things the government sortof did fix was tightening up lending standards for retail regular people so everyone who's looking at the last crash sees that retail borrowers aren't overleveraged with bad loans and subprime and thinks it can't happen again.  But all those rules and whatnot get ignored if the buyer is paying cash.  This is the financial equivalent of the military expression Generals always fight the last war.  The massive use of marginequity backed loans by both retail and institutions to buy property has taken two separate markets the liquidvolatile equity market and the illiquidstable housing market and stitched them together like a human centipede with dogshit wrapped in catshit debt passing back and forth into one market that is unequally liquid and extremely price volatile.  If you need proof that this is what's happening lemme help you out with some charts that illustrate my point  This is US Margin debt over the last few years  formatpngampautowebpampsd42eb68f00af67a6afad37582123d3277c940409  Now lets compare it to US home prices over the same period  formatpngampautowebpampsd60e5cbd4091a43a3e437532cb9fa414d4a345d9  So basically we've got loans on inflated assets fueling loans on other inflated assets.  This is feedback loop that goes parabolic.. then crashes hard.  You can see the margin debt coming down and forming the first valley before it goes back up a little to complete the Head and Shoulders pattern then drills down into the center of the earth.  Because housing is illiquid it's going to lag that drop but as you can see from the price curve leveling off it's getting ready to do the same thing.  Now we know that there are a ton of loans using inflated volatile collateral on illiquid inflated assets.  And this is a certified bad thing.  But the coming death spiral of equityasset sales isn't the only giant elephant in the room everyone is ignoring.  I'm talking of course about Evergrande in specific and Chinese property bonds in general.  The list of Chinese real estate developers that aren't paying their employees debts bonds or suppliers is actually longer than you pretend your wang is so we'll just use Evergrande as a proxy for the whole lot of them.  Evergrande hasn't made hundreds of millions of dollars of interest payment on bonds since September.  A couple weeks ago they failed to pay the principal payment on a maturing bond to the tune of $2.1 Billion.  So you'd think that means their debt is junk and they've defaulted right  Not so fast.  Let's check what the big 3 ratings agencies have to say about it  Fitch  RD  Restricted Default  SampP SD  Selective Default  Moody's Caa1 Rated as Poor Quality and Very High Credit Risk  You notice what's missing from all of those  D  Default.  Evergrande has missed everything they can possibly miss and they're still not rated D.  Hell those brazen cockchuffers at Moody's actually have 4 separate ratings lower than what they're slapping on EG bonds.  Here let me take a second to speak in the meme language you smooth brained retards actually might understand  formatpjpgampautowebpampsd7adb931a585d603db30e2b6b8456db353404948  The reason that none of these agencies will put the D on Evergrande bonds is twofold   1 they don't want to piss off the Chinese government  2 the banks and hedge funds that are their primary clients are balls deep in this debt and can't get it off their books because shockingly people haven't forgotten how those same banks and hedge funds fucked saddled and rode them with garbage debt in 2008.  Why is this relevant to US housing equities and the margin loans financing the spiraling prices of both  Easy.  The same people who hold the worthless Chinese debt also hold trillions of dollars of equities that they've taken margin loans against to buy trillions of dollars of US Housing.  After Amazon's Q4 earngings everyone who looked into them said Holy crap  The only thing holding up their ER is this $110 Billion Rivian valuation  Some people even made memes about it on WSB pointing out that it was the only thing holding up the entire US market.  Now what happened when AMZN's Q1 ER came out and the RIVN valuation had dropped to more realistic levels  Right a 189 miss on earnings and a huge bear run on SPY and QQQ.  gtQuick shout out to those of you who like to play options on stock lockup expiries  RIVN's lockup ends on May 8th and AMZN and F have a ton of shares with a cost basis of $10 they can sell on or after that date.  The price is currently $30.  You do the math on if they want to hold onto that garbage once they can dump it at a profit.lt  That's a huge drop in the collateral backing all that margin debt.  Is it enough to cause the Mother of all Margin Calls MMC and set off the worst crash since 1929  Nope.  Not yet.  But it's coming.  Remember how people pointed out on AMZN's last ER how they were actually super fuk  Yeah you know who had a supposedly positive ER but is actually supermegafuk and just lied through their teeth about it Apple.  AAPL doesn't have a single factory working right now and their by far 1 market  China  is in the midst of complete economic collapse.  gtthe politburo doesn't have emergency meetings about giant spending packages because things are going welllt  They gave zero guidance on either of these things which makes me think that it's even worse than I think it is and I think it's fucking horrible.  But back to the bad Chinese debt. The reason Wall Street can survive a hit to something like AMZN and the indexes is that they're hedged to the balls for stuff like that.  Know what they're not hedged for  Chinese property bonds universally going to zero.  So what happens when the collateral for those margin loans goes down  I'm sure you retards behind Wendy's have all heard this one before  you get a margin call.  First you or more likely your broker sells equities.  But if equities are all dropping they comin' for that money and they're looking at your assets to get it.  Guess what  Housing and commercial real estate are both assets they can force sales on.  So that same selfreinforcing spiral that drove up both equity and real estate prices  It's going to go into reverse but here's the thing when everyone is selling at the same time prices go down really really really really really really fast.  We learned this last time in 2008.  This time because the housing market is directly tied to the crashing stocks instead of indirectly through people who will default over time as they lose their jobs or balloon payments come due or rates adjust it's going to happen all at once faster and more violently.  We actually got a brief preview of what this is going to look like thanks to the wild incompetence and greed at Zillow  Z.  Their stock crashed 40 in five days when it was revealed they'd bought too many houses they couldn't rent or flip and had to sell them at a loss.  And that was just a couple of neighborhoods in Arizona.  When this hits nationwide it's going to be exponentially worse.  How much worse  Well that depends on where you are.  Here's some graphs explaining that while the US is fuk somehow our Maple Swiling neighbors to the north are exponentially worse off  life lesson don't tie yourself to China kids.  This is bad but it's kind of hiding how bad because the data cuts off too soon after the COVID crash.  formatpjpgampautowebpampsea798013a5e45454c0be8e952c08b61ec0926728  Yeah Canada.. I'm sorry maple's.  It's gonna be rough.  Good luck and care with RBC pretty sure that between a huge position in Chinese debt and an incredible number of soon to be bad mortgages and margin loans they're completely worthless.  formatpjpgampautowebpampsc533ad7efe260d452a16e99cced6185e46b40449  Look I started writing DD's last fall saying we'd just gone into recession but nobody noticed and everyone laughed at me and said I was crazy.  After that Q1 GDP miss it looks a bit different ya  Last summer I wrote about how CMBS was fuk and it would start coming due in March 2022 and people pointed and laughed.  See the chart earlier in this post.  Now I'm telling you that the banks and the Fed and every fucking person has fucked up and missed that real estate and equities have gotten tied up in a gordian knot that's getting sucked into a black hole of failure.  I'd like to be wrong.  I've been wrong before see my terrible takes on corporate hedging of HYG for an example but I don't think I'm wrong here.  The market and housing and everything is going down like Anne Robbins trying to get off the Hollywood black list.  I've never given dates before because I didn't have a good enough idea of when things would finally hit a critical mass.  If we keep following the 2008 chart thanks for being predictable algorithms we're going to go up for a couple of weeks then crash sometime between the end of May and the middleend of July.  Summer collapses are historically rather rare so I like this fall myself but I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome.  formatpjpgampautowebpamps6b6cbdadfa3f647e7f086b32478feea9136bc500  TLDR In 2008 the unknown weapons of financial mass destruction were subprime loans MBS CDS and CDOs.  In 2022 they're margin loans asset backed loans Chinese bonds and cash purchased assets.  This is how inflation leaked into the real economy from the assets it was supposed to be segregated in.  Fed printer goes brrrrr gt assets inflate gt margin loans against assets drive up real estate gt owners of real estate suddenly have lots of extra money gt inflation.  As of November of '21 the Fed had printed $13 Trillion since the start of COVID.  $1 Trillion was stimmies.  The rest  The rest went to the rich via inflated asset prices and debt purchases.  Don't believe them when they try to blame this shitshow on stimmies and the just now convenientlymentionedinthemedia return of subprime loans bit.  They just want a chance to blame this on poor people and immigrants to avoid having anyone look at them.  And don't think JPow's greedy ass can save you this time to match the financial impact of what the Fed did during COVID they'd have to print nearly $60 Trillion.  That's Weimar Republic territory if we're not headed there already.    EDIT a lot of you aren't understanding my point which sort of proves it I guess.  Look housing is going to crash because the corps and investors and cash buyers are going to get liquidated on their margin loans when the market crashes.  That's going to free up way more supply than there is demand driving prices down.  Again this exact scenario was seen with the Zillow housing selloff last fall.  The banks and lenders and regulators literally DO NOT KNOW that these margin accounts are actually propping up housing because it doesn't show up on any of their data.    EDIT2 SPY 1216 200p GME 120 950c sell on volatility spikes rebuy when they drop vary dates and strikes slightly to avoid wash sales  Sources include but not limited to FRED Statista CoreLogic FINRA","negative"
"Friendly reminder that they will F your puts.","Just FYI this market has no problem  absorbing a .50 increase finishing the next week or two weeks up 8 from here just to Fuck your puts and then slowly lose 16 over the next 30 days.  You all arent about to call the next Financial crisis.  Happy trading","negative"
"Why is Warren Buffett and other but hitters buying Billions worth of share of NUBank","It has lost 40 of it's value in last 12 months. Just curious to know if anyone info we should be knowing about","neutral"
"$COIN DD","   Just following up on the post made by ufrederickwes earlier which mainly discussed $COIN shitting the bed on earningsTBD 510 I made a tiny retarded analysis because why the fuck not so buckle up autists.  Insider Trading  I wasnt expecting the mfs to be buying anyway but it's interesting to see Paul Grewal selling even at the 170 levels  ampx200B  ampx200B  This is Paulformatpngampautowebpampsbc24ee12bf8a69dd343f7fe00c5fb59355815d58  ampx200B  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps9c93de87d03fd56192808e5c21841aa2b4b61425  TA  Now I don't know jack shit about TA unless its the truck stop TA which is cool and all but if we do actually look to see a pattern in COIN then I'm pretty positive that the down trend is finishing the infamous downdiving red dildo  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsa5c565bb32096f279cf608b3ae14ec13ef5244a8  Fundamental Semi Analysis  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps15969d917ab012ac0e8104ee784c7ea6f87c78e3  Now to the good stuff.. Kind of.. RH announced in the last report that revenue from Shitcoin is down 39. I took a 35 down on revenue yy from Q1 and since their transaction costs increased from 13 to 15 last year I used that to forecast next quarter.  I used Q3 2021 to estimate other costs because fuck doing the 10k and back tracking every Q I only gave this 2 hrs and I'm bored already. I also didnt go back to see what's up with taxes last year but I took an effective rate and added that.  Sorry to say ufrederickwes but Wallstreet estimates are in a wide range between .70 to 1.44 per share and even with a 35 loss in revenue COIN can easily fall into that range even with if my retarded costs analysis turns out to be wrong which I am sure it will be.  On the bright side for those who like rubbing with another dude.. Looks like if net profit goes down and 2021 turns out to be a once in a lifetime year for the company shares can be at $40 and even with a steady increase in profits but with limited growth it can justify $174  TLDR $COIN can trade up down or sideways on earnings but its a good short if profits decrease to my estimates and the price doesn't reflect it  Positions None but puts  after earnings for anything above $4050","neutral"
"$UAN YOLO  Earnings tomorrow AH","","positive"
"Tesla Shanghai Resumes 80 Production at Giga Factory","According to Chinese officials as of Saturday Tesla NASDAQTSLA has resumed over 80 production at its Shanghai Giga Factory.  ampx200B   Source   ","positive"
"TSLA shares $100 giveaway. Since a guy is giving money on a put play and another guy is giving money on a call play. I might as well join in with shares. If Tesla hits $930 by tomorrow and I break even Ill give one of you degenerates $100","","positive"
"Twitter vs Pinterest","Can anyone explain to me how Twitter with negative PE amp 200mln atcive users worth 45B much more than Pinterest with 430mln active users and  PE 40 worth only 13B $ Any Ideas  ","neutral"
"No shame Name your current unrealized or realized losses","AMD $37k OKTA $28k INMD $55.5k  In shares Shelling covered calls. Ouch still.  If you dont sell its not a loss yet but very likely losses at end of year.","negative"
"AMZN A Case Study on How a Tech Megacap Stalwart Falls From Grace","So I had time enough this past weekend to really analyze AMZN's most recent earnings and read between the lines.  What I found actually bodes well in terms of giving a leg up for smaller companies against all the macro headwinds so bulls your poor bussys can have a rest.  Weirdly enough some charting and TA served as a reliable second opinion in which to base off the what the fundamentals of the company are screaming laid out in the earnings report.  Hear me out and listen closely you fucking single digit IQ twatwaffles.  Maybe you'll actually come out in the green for once in your pathetic mom's basement dwelling life.  Pull up last weeks chart with the 8 EMA 21 EMA and 50 SMA overlaid with daily candles along with Bollingers and Heiken Ashis as reference so you can follow along.  It'll help to all make perfect sense in a bit and you'll totally get why a megacap stalwart can lose greater than $100B market cap in a single day and it has nothing to do with inflation or Daddy Jpow Traitor to Fuk Yo Puts impending rate hikes of doom.  Now.  ltclears throatgt  Im not sure how up to date you are on the whole GameStop situation but Amazon is heading for bankruptcy and GameStop is now their biggest competitor.  Market cap isnt there yet but the company plan is on track.  Also Jeff Bezos is the target of every major corporation now.  Amazon CANT survive the next few years with their increasing bad reputation from littering and burning unused inventory to labor rights with their workers being violated.  Amazon sounds great until you look underneath the hood and see all the parts are grinding and screaming.  GameStop is targeting Amazon to be the epicenter of ecommercegaming.  This GameStop earnings has been MASSIVELY anticipated and I believe Amazon will continue to develop a negative correlation to GameStop.  So what do they have to do with each other Competitors and GameStops about to make the move with a bite to the jugular.","negative"
"Sunday Brunch Chartbook Recent Market Performance and Analysis"," In this post I'll run down through various charts  indices ETFs some single stocks  to try to create some insight into the market. We're trying to establish some notion of what's doing well what's not doing well and what some market indicators might be telling us.   I try to refrain from making outright conclusions or providing explicit trade ideas. Instead I'm walking through how different asset classes and sectors are performing and highlighting some interesting and relevant indicators all in an effort to give a more holistic picture of the market to help you make better informed trades.  Previous Edition  Let's get started...   Indices  SPY 1yformatpngampautowebpamps609549fae067039aa75725c72b5012fada2329d4  SPY 3yformatpngampautowebpampsf0014dae8c5a194c9646aec3b51741c1b74812eb   After breaking below the 420 level earlier this week we closed well below it on heavy volume on Friday. This relative level has been support throughout this downtrend and I think Friday's move finally sets us up to continue lower.  Many have pointed out the next logical level of support is around the 400405 level which is definitely in reach. Below that we're probably looking at 380ish or if you're ultra bearish you could make the case for a retrace to the 200DMA around 350.      QQQ 1yformatpngampautowebpamps445f7266b70408652c87da9066bf1f7e35e5260a  QQQ 3yformatpngampautowebpamps71e36b6efdd1dd4d27cda6392a25126380cfd756   Looking at similar timeframes on QQQ we're seeing the same thing a break below recent support around 320 with the next level probably around 300 or 290.      IWM 3yformatpngampautowebpampsf9703f192138dfce36c27b7fd03000b66cdfaeba   IWM in my opinion has really been the leader  canary in the coal mine here. It was range bound for much of 2021 and it's failed breakout in November was really the start of this down trend at the index level many stocks were down throughout 2021.   Earlier this year it broke through the bottom end of it's 2021 trading range as selling spread to the other indices and never managed to bounce back up. It didn't really participate in that massive rip in the second half of March which I thought was an obvious red flag.    Now it's broken below it's lower range  with 190192 being lower support  and I think we're headed for it's precovid high of 170   Since we started to fade that March rally it's been my stance that we're headed lower and if we're to believe there's no such thing as triple bottoms then the target was always to break under these recent support levels.    I think the impetus here is we've finally started to see the mega cap tech names that have held up these indices so well roll over. People have lately been pointing out that we've seen these drawdowns start in the shittiestriskiest areas of the market  e.g. SPACs at the start of last year  and move down the risk curve and ultimately nothing is safe. This is generally how a bear market happens.      RUA 5yformatpngampautowebpamps9b74710de4050b6e3bb695cc8e8befd96b74da41   Lastly looking at the RUA  the Russel 3000  virtually the entire US stock market  my guess is we're likely to visit that 2300 area in the nearterm.    Sectors  Sector Performance 6mformatpngampautowebpamps1151356ed7d2ec95af19aed9a084907829eef251   This is a pretty busy but handy chart I look at to give me an idea of relative performance across many market sectors. It's been useful the last few years as we've had a ton of rotation between different areas of the market and this can help me spot that and trade momentum accordingly.  Last week I noted some recent relative outperformance of sector defensive sectors like healthcare energy and consumer staples. We're actually starting to see those now succumb to the selling endemic in the rest of the market.  If our overall recession  bear case is valid then this is expected and unfortunately we may have to act like nothing is safe.      XLU 1yformatpngampautowebpampsdaab669046da193e1d8bfa2c0abe1fab40ffc9db   I also previously noted the outperformance of utilities which usually do not perform well in a rising rate environment. Well we've seen them give back the entirety of their recent move and these could very well be heading back lower as often happens with a failed breakout.     XLI 5yformatpngampautowebpamps1d95d47df758da897a3c1f109e7b2bae9f00c777   I also previously talked about Dow theory and the relationship between industrials and utilities  industrials never confirmed the breakout in utilities and are now actually looking like they're breaking lower from the range they've been stuck in for a year. This is also pretty bearish.   Oof this week has not been good...   Bonds Dollar Sentiment  US10Y All Timeformatpngampautowebpamps0d6986636fd1a990f73e852d32185a1ba77c6e1d   Whatever way you draw the trend line we're breaking out above it. Bond volatility has continued this week alone trading in a 20bps range. Will we finally find some resistance here around 3 and take a breather      DXY alltimeformatpngampautowebpamps165b58f99571cfe2913e0cb0e22ddad08549bb8b   The DXY or US dollar index has been talked about much lately. We've had historic moves in currency pairs and the DXY is an index of the US dollar vs a basket of other major currencies most notably the Euro. I wanted to zoom out here to give an idea of just how historic this move is  the DXY above 100 is notable and this past week we broke above the 102 level which has been the top level of the range we've been in since 2015.   This is notable because there are all sorts of trades that can start to blow up as these FX moves continue and these can introduce or exacerbate all kinds of volatility in all kinds of financial assets. Basically this can get really fucking bad really fucking quick and does not portend well for markets across the world.      AAII Sentiment Surveyformatpngampautowebpampsb34bd4b268c5fcfef07adeb29bd8a10725f999f6   Sentiment got even worse this past week which can be expected given the price action.   Sentiment has been much talked about lately but despite the overall bearish sentiment indicated by various surveys  indicators there's not been a real indication of a washout  heavy indiscriminate selling and panic that can indicate max capitulation and a possible bottom.      NYSE New Highs vs Lowsformatpngampautowebpamps0519b10faf3bb1c820c551a837f35413c6fa3a91   NYSE new lows in orange are still elevated while stocks making new highs in blue are basically nonexistent. Interestingly even with all that selling on Friday we saw the new lows decrease  that might be an indication that Friday's selling was very much in stocks that have been holding up well and not in those that have already been making new lows which reinforces this idea that selling is spreading to all parts of the market at this point.    Some Thoughts  I think we're getting to some conditions where we have to start entertaining the idea that this isn't just a pullback  correction but instead the start of a bear market and a very series correction. This would be an extreme bearish view but something like 350 on SPY would represent a 26 drawdown and 50 fib retracement of the covid rally from the March 2020 lows to the recent top which would actually be reasonable if we see a true washout  market conditions are there to really exacerbate selling.    Now I've no clue if this will happen but I'd expect we first have to break meaningfully below that 40004050 level on SPX.   Earningswise while Q1 reports have been great Q2 guidance has been somewhat poor. We're likely to see continued supply chain problems with China unable to cope with covid inflationary pressures and uncertainty likely to hit consumer and business sentimentbehavior and lastly the macro challenge with the dollar's strength and Europe and other countries entering a recession.    I have some expectation we'll see companies freezing hiring and laying off employees we're already seeing this having overcompensated for the last few years and now needing to readjust based on normalizing demand whatever the new normal is and facing margin pressures and uncertainty due to the macro picture.   Suffice to say I think Q2 earnings are going to be garbage but hopefully we'll see things get better in the second half of this year.   Of course I price is the best indication of sentiment and I may have a completely different view by this time next week.","negative"
"Coinbase Price Target Analysis","Hello everyone I prepared a valuation analysis for this stock and wanted to share my results   First of all I went onto nomics.com and downloaded the historical trading volumes for coinbase. I took the daily trading volumes for each day of the first quarter and summed them up. The total dollar amount of trading activity on Coinbase for Q1 2022 was $307744400239.   I then looked at Coinbase most recent quarterly report the Q4 2021 report. Listed in this report is the financials and trading volumes for the 5 preceding quarters. The trading volumes went as such Q4 2020  89B Q1 2021  335B Q2 2021  462B Q3 2021  $327B Q4 2021  547B.   I then looked at the net trading revenues from these quarters and they go as follows 497M 1.597B 2.033B 1.235B and 2.49B. I divided the revenues by the associated trading volumes for each quarter to get what percentage of trading volume was collected as fee revenue. This rate was fairly similar in all quarters and averaged to be 0.461615. This means that 0.461615 of trading volume has historically been collected as fee revenue for Coinbase. Applying this historic percentage to Q1 2022s trading volume of 307744400239  we find that the net trading revenues would be $1420592930.09.   Well this is just the projected revenue for this quarter but how about the earnings   Well the quarterly report also shows the profitability of Coinbase for the 5 preceding quarters and they go as such Q4 2020  Revenue of 497M and Net Income of 177M. Q1 2021  Revenue 1.597B NI 771M. Q2 2021  Revenue 2.033B NI 1.606B. Q3 2021  Revenue 1.235B NI 406M. Q4 2021  Revenue 2.490B NI 840M. I then divided the net income by the revenues to find the profit margin and they are all pretty similar across all the listed quarters. The profitability is around 3240 each quarter besides Q2 2021 where profitability was a whopping 78.99656. That quarter was definitely an outlier to the positive side. However I wanted my valuation to be VERY conservative so I decided to completely cut out this positive outlier as it pulled the average profit margin much higher. Including this outlier the average profit margin was 45.8995388 without the outlier it was an average of 37.70407. We will use that conservative average and make that our base case profit margin. In order to account for possible increases or decreases in profitability I constructed a three case analysis. I took the average historic profit margin 37.70407 as the base case a significantly lower profit margin of 30 which is lower than ANY previous quarter as my conservative case and a 40 higher end of historical margins as my generous or best case.   The three cases came to the following potential net incomes for Q1 2022 Conservative case $426177879.03 Base case $535621393.47 GenerousBest case $568237172.04.   I then took these three potential cases of quarterly profit and calculated the forward PE ratios at the three different earnings levels. The conservative margins equate to an annual net income earnings of 1704711516.11 for 2022 the base case annual net income is 2142485573.89 for 2022 the generousbest case annual net income is 2272948688.14 for 2022.   This means that at the current price level of Coinbase the forward PEs would be 14.67110403 for the conservative case 11.67335748 for the base case and 11.00332803 for the best case.   We then have to decide what multiple the market will accept as a fair multiple for Coinbase. Coinbase is a fintech company in the cryptocurrency space and therefore commands a higher multiple. Many fintech stocks trade at a 200 multiple other more established brands such as Visa and Mastercard trade around 3545. Others such as Paypal are currently trading around 25. Due to the many macroeconomic and geopolitical factors weighing on market valuations at the moment I decided to be VERY conservative with my anticipated multiples just as I was VERY conservative with my revenue and profit margins. I decided due to the uncertainty and the rerating of multiples in the market to set the conservative case as a multiple of 20 the base case as a multiple of 30 and the best case as a multiple of 40. As I mentioned these anticipated multiples are VERY conversative but are realistic due to the newness of the company and the pessimism weighing on the markets. So even the best case comes in lower than their fintech peers current market multiples.   I then created a rubric in which one side had the three forward PEs I calculated the generous base and best case forward PEs and the other side had the three anticipated accepted market multiples the generous base and best case PEs. I then calculated within this rubric the percentage difference between the three calculated forward PEs with the three anticipated market multiples creating nine potential outcomes.   Using the conservative forward PE calculation there would have to be an increase of 36.3224 to get to the conservative multiple a 104.4836 increase to get to the base case multiple and a 72.6448 increase to get to the best case multiple.  Using the base case forward PE calculation there would have to be a 71.33 increase to get to the conservative multiple a 156.9955 increase to get to the base case multiple and a 242.6606 increase to get to the best case multiple. Then for the best case forward PE calculation there would need to be a 81.7632 increase to get to the conservative multiple an 172.6448 increase to get to the base case multiple and a 263.526 increase to get to the best case multiple.     I then created another rubric in which I evaluated the percent chance of each of these cases happening.  There are a total of 9 potential cases because there are three cases of what their forward PE is calculated to be and three different cases of what the ACCEPTED and tradeable multiple is in the market.  Being VERY conservative again I believe there is a 40 chance the conservative forward PE calculation is correct a 40 chance the base case forward PE calculation is correct and a 20 chance the best case forward PE calculation is correct.  Then on the other axis I believe there is a 40 chance the accepted market multiple will be on the conservative side of 20PE a 40 chance of the accepted market multiple being the base case of 30PE and a 20 chance of the accepted market multiple being the best case of 40PE.     Cross multiplying these percentage chances within the table gives us the following percentage chances across the nine possibilities A 16 that both the earnings AND the market multiple will be the conservative case. A 16 chance that the earnings will be conservative but the market multiple will be base case. An 8 chance that the earnings will be conservative but the market multiple will be best case. A 16 chance that the earnings will be base case but the market multiple will be conservative.  A 16 chance that both the earnings AND the market multiple will be base case.  An 8 chance that the earnings will be base case but the market multiple will be best case. A 8 chance that the earnings will be best case but the market multiple will be conservative.  An 8 chance that the earnings will be best case but the market multiple will be base case.  And a 4 chance that both the earnings AND the market multiple will be best case.     I then combined the two rubrics the percentage increase in stock value for the nine possible outcomes and the probability of the nine outcomes and multiplied the associated stock increase by the anticipated probability of that outcome.  This gives us a probability adjusted price target for coinbase across all nine potential outcomes.     Once you add all these probability adjusted outcomes together you get a 123.179209 anticipated increase of stock price.  Going off the current price levels in which our calculations were based that means that the 2022 earnings adjusted price target for Coinbase should be $251.55share.     All of these calculations began by using the ACTUAL trading volumes.  We KNOW that the trading volume for Q1 2022 was 307744400239.  The rest of these calculations were based on historic figures and profit margins.  In order to account for the pessimistic tones of the market and economic headwinds I used VERY conservative margins.  In order to adjust for potential discrepancies in margins and forward PEs I used three cases for margins and three cases for market multiples.  I accounted for EVERY possible outcome.  I firmly believe that even on a conservative note this stock is very oversold.  The IPO price was WAY too high I agree.  But this demolition of Coinbase stock price is unwarranted and completely manipulative.      The fair value of Coinbase stock by the end of this year should be $251.55.  This is right on with how the stock traded through May 2021  October 2021 before the market unjustifiably destroyed the stock.  There IS potentially upside of 123.179209 on this stock at current levels.  And I rate Coinbase a strong buy.","neutral"
"MBB a triple A rated MBS ETF has crashed and made a new all time low under the 2008 housing crash. Worst quarter performance ever by far. Mortgage departments everywhere seeing layoffs. And as a bonus Fannie Mae executives are jumping ship","Comes in a half hour video form with all the data presented in it. This is not a prediction this has already happened. In the video i go through what's inside MBB as well as go through Fannie's 8k filings which shows there's been a slew of execs leaving and new ones being appointed like a new CFO and Chief Risk Officer culminating in both the chair of the board and the CEO since 2018 leaving as was announced in April.    If you need a slightly shorter explanation of what happened in 3 minutes just watch this but replace double A with triple A.    Link where you can check the data for yourself within a minute scroll down to holdings download Holdings Supplemental Information and Search All for FICO and ask yourself if that looks triple A and if they would pull the same crap with bonds where the names don't even tell you anything  search for LTV as a bonus. Same page also has the credit exposure breakdown at the bottom to show it's triple A rated    And finally to prove to you apes that I did pull a Michael Burry and in the exact same asset class none the less here's a video i did on the subject in March 2021 when literally everybody was going into housing and the CPI hadn't even blown out yet another thing i got right    And some tweets to show i was on the case just didn't get much attention at the time. After the worst quarter in the history of credit in the US though things might be different. We'll see how this thread does.  Looking at the CUSIPS of what's in MBB    And coming across the DTCC cutting margin collateral for MBS    If you're wondering what's next QT. When the Fed shrinks the balance sheet by selling MBS back into the market they'll be selling tens of billions each month. Last number i heard was $35 billion a month.  MBB has $10 billion in assets. They'd sell 35 ENTIRE ETFs into the market. Per month. The entire credit market already started plunging from the moment they openly started discussing QT at the start of January. If Jerome Powell is actually crazy enough to do it all hell's going to break loose. The QE that follows will be monstrous just to keep the system from seizing up a la 2008.  Only bigger than 2008 because both Freddie and Fannie's guarantee book of business has grown Freddie doubled from $15 Trillion in 2014 to $3 trillion now  and it's actually fixed rate mortgages that are the problem thanks to inflation. Aside from people being unable to pay their mortgage even when fixed due to other living costs going up we all know inflation inflates away a mortgage when it's fixed.  But have any of you ever wondered who's on the other end of that trade And whether or not that might be a good thing at maximum system fragility with leverage being as high as it is  If your mortgage is 4 fixed and inflation is 85  who's going to eat the 45 difference  The bond holder. Or in this case  the holder of slices of bonds the MBS holder. And inflation affects the entire system including triple A. The only way to fix it To raise rates which'd also mean raise mortgage costs which means a further seizing up of the housing market no starter can pay these prices PLUS a gt4 mortgage and either forced selling or forced bailouts. Considering what the selling would lead to i'd say bailouts are inevitable.","negative"
"I asked my boyfriend who knows nothing about investing or the stock market what my next play should be","He told me to buy Kpop stocks lmao because hes a Kpop fan  I kind of chuckled to myself thinking that theres no way this would be profitable. I check out the tickets on the Korean index and turns out all the KPOP companies are in fact in a bull market and have been for the past 5 years. Go figure.  Now off to research how to buy calls in Korean won.","positive"
"How Banks rip us off and no jail","I know all brokers have different policies and in Canada i use TD.  TD forces me to sell my contract on day of expiry at 3 pm. Now sometimes what they forget to do it because theres been times my contract disapears ten minutes to four or not at all like they forgot or something.   Am I paranoid to think they sell my contracts to them selves holding until who knows what time they have to sell them back to the sec.   They do this if they see potential gain some how before the contract expires and if its a who cares but if theres a gain poof they pocket our money.  Not really sure if this is what goes down but it makes sense and unless Im mossing something and this is how it works i want to hear everyone thoughts.","negative"
"Yes Im a retard no Im not karma farming. PLEASE just give me reassurance I will be okay or Im jumping off my bed. $AMD Im about to start going long $throat outside Wendys","","negative"
"I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government","","neutral"
"Serious question What's an amazon split and should I invest","HI I've been a lurker on this subReddit and interested in investing in Amazon should I or should I not   How much is considered safe... Should I go big like invest 10k  20k or 50k And what does it mean a 201 split.   ampx200B  TLDR Wondering if investing on Amazon before the split is a wise investment.","neutral"
"Top 6 Ways the SuperRich Have Used Their Fortunes to Waste Money on Ludicrous Buys","1. ROMAN  ABRAMOVICH'S PENCHANT FOR SUSHI  2. $3 MILLION LADY GAGA HIRE  3. NASI GANGA HELICOPTER AIRLIFT  4. WEB DOMAIN DOMINATION  5.  SULTAN OF BRUNEY AND HIS BARBER  6. EXPENSIVE PARKING SPOTS  Source ","neutral"
"Vaxxinity Vaxx drug fast tracked by FDA for Alzheimer's Disease treatment","   Could be a good buy but THB I might want to forget a lot of the choices I've made with regard to my buys...","neutral"
"Who still got money to Gamble","I finally believe in the study which says Day Traders don't make money Those who sell services to them do. I gotta start a course for a better chance of earning a buck.","positive"
"Isnt this what the FED wanted ","Doesnt the FED want to slow down the economy and thus inflation     The economy shrinks by 1.7 GDP.    With rising inflation getting out of hand and the economy red hot isnt this what the FED wanted     To slow down the economy so it doesnt over heat.  Well they are doing a good job just the mere talk of raising rates have made the 10 year treasury go above 3.  And now consumers are finally slowing down as evident by Amazons recent earnings.     This in effect will slow inflation as now people are spending less.  3 months ago people spending more was a bad thing.    Am I missing something ","negative"
"$DASH Puts This Week For Earnings","Got into a small car accident today while working a DoorDash delivery. I had to cancel the delivery since I got busy obviously...  It just hit me how often does this occur while a driver is online    I receive several notifications every day of them begging me to drive during busy times every day.    Clearly the supply of drivers is not outweighing the demand and if you factor in multiple incidents like mine or others today. Its sure fire that DoorDash earnings will miss this quarter and the future due to lack of supply of drivers and outliers that the company can never control with gig work .","negative"
"Short. Stop asking what to do.","Just short stocks.   People act like shorting is the incest of stock trades.  When the market goes up find nice things and bet on them going up.  When the market goes down find things you hate or think are dumb and bet on them going down.  Just set stops.   Then win. Take the dumb money and invest in nice things and bet on them going up.  At least short some Blackrock.   That shit feels good.","neutral"
"$BIRD is the next $LULU keep adding","","neutral"
"$ABNB earnings play 53 DD","Gather around my fellow degenerates I have a totally well researched earnings play on ABNB that cannot possibly fail.  The general idea is this stock price too high stock price fall soon.  You will be purchasing puts if you want to participate.    You might remember that ABNB started trading in 2021 at over double its initial offering price during the absolute peak of IPO mania.    ETF that tracks recent IPO performance. formatpngampautowebpamps1c4488bd751f21e37ed5d7ea182d454e6e5a0995  While the majority of IPO's in 20202021 have heavily corrected ABNB and segments of the travel industry at large have remained stubbornly overvalued.    ampx200B  ABNB 1 year chart note the support at $130. formatpngampautowebpampsef55b7b6073df0cee7b83228a293d0af2e341a57  The stock market recently has punished tech companies that were priced beyond perfection.  ABNB has avoided this fate and is only down roughly 10 YTD.  I think they have avoided the carnage because they are in the travel industry which is significantly overvalued.  For example  $MAR is trading above precovid levels at a PE of over 50  $BKNG is trading above precovid levels at a PE of almost 80.    ABNB has a PE of nothing because they are an unprofitable tech company with a market cap of 100B.     These companies are trading at high multiples due to the expected Travel Boom that has been hyped since lockdowns began over two years ago.       'Revenge Travel' Will Be All The Rage Over The Next Few Years  HuffPost Life 31921   A travel boom is looming. But is the industry ready  McKinsey  7721   The travel boom has arrived American Express poll says Travel Weekly  32122  However business travel which is by far the most lucrative segment of travel is not expected to recover for years if ever...   Forecast Business Travel Spending to Reach 2019 Level in 2024  Business Travel News   The Travel Boom is a classic case of buy the rumor sell the news.  The stock market has been methodically correcting over through the past six months and travel is probably up next.  We all know what happens to overpriced tech companies come earnings time.    ampx200B  TLDR the travel industry is priced beyond perfection.  ABNB is the perfect vehicle to short the industry because it is an unprofitable tech company.  Even if they report a profit for Q1 they will still be overvalued.    You wouldn't want to short $MAR because it is the gold standard in many boomer portfolios and can take years to bleed out.  BKNG is too expensive and not enough volume on options chains.  Positions $ABNB  5 June 22 $130 PUT  2 Jul22 $100 PUT  2 Jul22 $115 ABNB PUT   Will look to add more of the $130's on Monday and Tuesday.  $130 is a key support level and if it breaks we are heading below $100.  JuneJuly expiry in case we get another bear market rally.","positive"
"What will be the nickname for this era after its over","","negative"
"How do I protect my savings for the rapid devaluation of the euro and an incoming stock market crash ","The title says it all.   The euro is rapidly losing its value due to high inflation and I would like to protect the value of my savings.   Ive looked into digital assets physical gold and foreign currencies.   I also have a significant sum of money invested in the stock market. How can I play the market and make gains exploiting current events or at the very least how can I protect my assets from losing value    If you have any other leads beside the stock market let me know.   Please explain your rational.  Thanks   P.S.  if not the right place where should I post ","negative"
"Can somebody explain why it is not a good idea to buy cheap stock after a crash","I have seen some memes about people who get laughed at for saying that is a good idea and I dont really understand where the problem is at.I am new to investing in general. I cant because in my country I am still technically a teenager ","negative"
"The Game is Over Canada  Also World War 3","TLDR Everything is going to burn down around you but its okay because the banks will profit. This is mostly for Canada as I havent looked into the situation in the US nearly as much but it could potentially apply there too.  Where we are now  The stock market is in a bubble or a bull run. Whatever you call it its the same result. People banks and institutions use their holdings as leverage to purchase houses. They dont just buy one house. They buy 3 or 4. Foreign buyers own properties that sit empty just because they offer a better return on investment than the market. The extra houses get rented out and used to generate income. The buyer stops working and lives off the rental income or airbnb income. This creates artificial demand for housing. This drives up the cost of housing increasing the leverage needed. People take out bigger and bigger loans. This also results in record profits for companies because more people are in a position to buy goods. The cost of goods is artificially lowered. The lower demand on the job market results in wage inflation because companies have to offer higher wages to attract new employees. Banks raise interest rates. Banks here are raising interest rates to try to pull the plug on the situation below but its too late.  Where its going  The stock market goes through a correction. It doesnt have to be a major correction either. What matters is the duration. The correction just has to go on long enough for people to default on their loans. Those who bought 3 or 4 houses basically on margin have to default. They sell some of their additional homes. To make sure their remaining assets are secure they are also forced to sell some of their holdings. This pushes the price of stocks down further. Which makes even those who only took out much lower loans earlier on also have to default. Foreign buyers panic sell at a loss relative to market value but not overall loss. The price of housing starts to go down due to increased selling pressure. Small businesses run by people with loans leveraging the homes and other properties they actually own are no longer able to use their homes as collateral for funding because the valuation is now much lower. Businesses go under and there are now more people looking for work. There are more people selling stocks to make ends meet in the interim. People who were living off rental income need to go back into the job market as well either because they were living off one rental property or because they need the supplemental income to be able to continue to finance the mortgages. The demand on the rental market increases driving up rents. There is also now a lower supply of rentals as well further driving up the price. Companies watch their profits evaporate as there is a huge drop in disposable income of any kind. This results in layoffs and budget cuts further reducing the need for employees. So at the same time that the market tanks housing tanks rents go up wages go down businesses go under and unemployment increases. Which will also result in a massive market selloff the likes of which have probably never been seen before. The whole thing will become self perpetuating. As the market sells off the housing sells off which causes more of a market sell off which causes more of a housing sell off which causes more unemployment and more people needing to rent which reduces spending power cuts into profits and lowers wages further. The whole thing just spirals. The only factor slowing it down at first is people who were waiting to buy houses piling in but that will eventually reverse when most of them are unemployed or the cost of goods rises too high and they too are forced to default. The only commodities that go down in price will be cars and gas as their profit margins literally depended on this whole system to stay in place and they fuelled most of this growth by allowing the urban sprawl that allowed the growth to happen in the first place.  How the game ends  The banks win because they now own most of the property in the country. The stock market is collapsed and wont recover for decades. The housing market is collapsed and wont recover for decades. There is a shortage of jobs. Rents are still inflated as there is now a huge demand. Wages are the lowest theyve ever been. The cost of all goods and services goes up. We enter the biggest depression ever.  What is the solution  No economy is stronger than a postwar economy. The government would have no choice but to engage in some sort of a conflict. The more people are enlisted and overseas the better the situation gets back home. The more young people get sent overseas to fight a war the less people are at home plotting to overthrow the government which allowed this all to happen. The less mouths there are to feed back home the more the economic problems suddenly solve themselves as it balances out supply and demand possibly permanently as the majority of soldiers wont make it back home. War is also a good distraction. A common enemy is always a uniting factor.  Closing  Im not sure how serious I am about all of this. But it does from this vantage point look like a distinct possibility. Maybe this should be on rconspiracy instead. Blue is my favourite flavour of crayon so there might be some warning signs in regards to my credibility as a financial analyst.","negative"
"CRSR","I have seen this play out before where a small cap disintegrates over time like the melting of polar ice caps.  Simple question  Can CRSR survive a recession   Their longterm debt doesn't look good.  Video game sales are down.  Cash is melting like the ice caps.  No insiders have bought a single share in forever.  Their moat does not look strong like Logitech and others.  However they are still making money.  But it is enough  I'm about to lose my ass if this company ends up like the Titanic.  formatpjpgampautowebpampscd7a2724fe8ca5fa9ff0cf9f0b5121d33911bbb9","negative"
"you guys need to start buying houses","Nobody makes the things they're invested in crash like this zoo and I want to be able to afford to own a home before I'm dead","negative"
"Puts on Commercial Mortgage Back Securities","I am going to open a sizeable short position tomorrow on the commercial real estate ETFs. A few reasons why.  ampx200B  1. Many companies are returning to office but many are not.  ampx200B  2. Companies that are hiring who normally would be in office space that are expanding their business are primarily hiring remote workers.  ampx200B  3. New Companies who before were wanting to hire in house employees are reconsidering due to inflation and the increasing rates.  ampx200B  Change my mind I guess  ampx200B  EDIT Tickers I am looking at CMBS primarily. Also VMBS and MBB. ","positive"
"Archegos and DTCC","So today DTCC release this    So it seems harmless and the same as before BUT this caught my eye  In general Section 23A and Regulation W limit the aggregate amount of covered transactions between a bank and any single affiliate of the bank. Covered transactions include among other things a banks acceptance of securities or other debt obligations issued by an affiliate as collateral security for a loan or extension of credit to any person or company. Thus to avoid running afoul of the restrictions imposed by Section 23A and Regulation W the LOC Agreement excludes Lender FIS as eligible collateral.  This basically says you cannot collateralize loans. Archegos took loans bought shares and collateralized those shares got more loans.  So question is how many archegos are there  Is this a nothing burger  Thoughts","negative"
"AMC Careers","CEOAdam Humble ape advice. Im not only a share holder but a proud longtime patron of AMC. I love going to the movies particularly our hometown AMC Dinein Thousand Oaks 14. Mr. Aron Id love to help make AMC an even greater company. Id like to recommend a business model that transforms the idea of regular theater jobs into long term careers. The theaters are packed with first jobbersyoung employees that make a minimum wage to attempt  unskilled job.  The services offered by most of these employees are subpar and Im sure same with any other lowwage job that there is high turnover. Please understand that you get what you pay for and AMC needs quality employees. Mr. Aron you have an opportunity to set amazing precedent. Create a new culture of employment. A culture that understands a better way then a minimum wage. Nobody  should feel at all like this Im working and Im happy with my job but Im struggling to afford necessity. You have great people working for you and the longer they stay the more knowledgeable and efficient theyll become. These benefit AMC in countless ways such as an improved customer experiencefasterbetter and employee retention. No $2030 million dollars until you have happy employees patrons and shareholders. Thankfully","positive"
"Erhhh 10 Dip across all european market today... Media System bug.. maybe","Quick index search tells me that some of the hardest hits where GS positions but also companies with ties to Russia. What truly happened Who sold RIP stoplosses  EDIT Im a Retard 25 on DAX the graph below the 10 dip only happened in Denmark Finland and Sweden.  formatpngampautowebpamps68f17f39c879c74caf0a446e5b281286798e2511","negative"
"187k Nio Yolo 1000 calls","","positive"
"For next 7 months Do you feel the market is going to be bearish or bullish or flat .","Just enter 1 of 3 words Bearing   bullish  flat  side way . Let's see sentiment here .  Myself ..bearish","neutral"
"We can either be pulling the rug or standing on it. It's time retail squeeze the Fed to explode volatility.","The markets are teetering right now and in the most vulnerable state we've seen them in possibly decades.   The Fed has been cheating the market with artificial liquidity to suppress volatility and deceive the system to keep things intact for years.  Anyone who has been  watching for the past few weeks has seen the control being lost as this slow motion rug pull has been unfolding.  The writingformatpngampautowebpampsd42eb68f00af67a6afad37582123d3277c940409 has been on the wallcropsmartampautowebpampsac9d6e950e4eee72579c27c5b0b7427962971dbc for some time whether we want to accept it or not.  Things are going to get worse likely much worse.   We can sit by and hope for the best while Chad throws it our wife or we can try to collectively influence and have a part in what takes place by getting ready in advance.  It's about time that we try and flip the script for once and pour some gasoline on the smoldering trash can the market is turning into.  It's not as crazy as it sounds.  Here's how we could actually pull this off.   Retail has a rather unique opportunity in the weeks and month ahead to exploit this fragility to pressure the Fed as it undergoes tightening using their own market control apparatus alongside them.    Our weapon Volatility.  Specifically a unified weeks long retail exodus against all long positions and an immediate transfer of capital onto VIX and its' derivatives alongside collective spyindex puts as it climbs and we do so immediately after they exhaust efforts to stabilize the market this coming week.  Positions   A sudden retail liquidation and exiting from all bleeding long holds. Except squeeze plays on Monday afternoon en masse and keep an eye out as the Fed is forced to release containment on market volatility we exacerbate the  pressure for the price climb with a sustained increase into callshare volume on VIXYUVXYVXX.  And then reinforce with SPYindex short puts once VIX containment efforts bottoms out towards end of day or the following morning and begins to release.  For the record I do not believe what we do will force anything from happening that wasn't already going to.  This process is going to play out regardless of any retail involvement we will merely help accelerate things into being far less controlled and get ourselves positioned on the correct side of it.  The Reserve is in a controlled but a  mandatory fight with VIX to maintain market stability entirely due to their own requirements.  The demands of their ongoing tightening measures will continue to see more of the debt they've created within the market to be pulled back through the indexes it supported the effect of which will be a VIX that demands to climb further and rejects sustained downward control.  ampx200B  A collectively informed retail has the ability to help force feed a process that is already underway.     Buy your positions back in a month they won't be taking off without you anytime soon.","negative"
"I was born in the HOOD","","negative"
"War Chests","With the impending doom that everyone is expecting in the market and our economy imagine how much cash is waiting to buy the discount.   It has been said that this could crash or not for a while and many people have moved large portions of a cash position to the dry powder room.   If we do have a crash I believe that the buying pressure will be so high that the CoVId rebound will look like childsplay.  Thoughts","negative"
"Student loan debts are going to be cancelled just before midterms in Nov. How do I play this","So joe biden is getting more butt fucked at the polls than an average wsb trader is getting fucked at the stock market.  its kinda helping that the media has stopped broadcasting his speeches much of it doesn't make absolutely any sense Democrats are worried the pant shitting morally corrupt orange turd is going to win the election so they have their ultimate REVERSE UNO card.  I predict they are going to cancel the debt just before the elections which will help in surge of popularity and help them win the mid term elections.   I would like to bet my  balls on this and everything in my wallet on the stock market.  What stock can I go long and what stock can I short to make them some tendies  note that I give a fuck about you being republican or democrat. They are both top down corrupted assholes. It's just that one uses a lube while fucking you.  I want to make money not preach ethics and cheer up wars.","negative"
"May 2  May 6 Plays","Id like this thread to be of ACTUAL plays for next earnings week. Itll be easier to keep track of the plays on this thread than anywhere else.   My plays for next week   1 SPY 56 422C 1 SPY 56 425P 1 TSLA 56 740P 3 TSLA 56 800P","positive"
"Alright boys time for some classic WSB degeneracy this broker lets me over leverage myself to the fucking moon and back so come Monday I will either be the first trillionair in the world or have a margin call so expensive my blood line for thousands of years to come will be In debt","","positive"
"Can't even afford to eat my favorite crayon flavor anymore.","","negative"
"Anyone knows whenif Onlyfans will go public","I want to know if there's like a timeline on when it might happen if it does.  Also if it did go public how much would you buy","neutral"
"Where do we think AMZN MSFT GOOGL AAPL will return to in terms of PE ratios Like a 15 handle GOOGL  $1591 AMZN $900 AAPL  $90$100 MSFT  $155","I have been trying to put together the price targets of the generals once we correct more deeply.  And at about 15 PE thats where I end up with.   Take a looke at AMZN for example...  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps6d9475b65786d11f45876c2d22ff0e021550d48b","positive"
"Now I cant afford dowry to get married","","negative"
"Wall Street Newsletter 2  The 5 Questions that every Wall Street guy is asking but no one is answering.","Respected Traders and Investors  ampx200B  Sobbing and crying _  Im sorry guys. I think I let you all down. This understanding of the stock market that i had in my head that fundamental analysis is nothing compared to technical analysis and i could just cut all the background noise by just simply looking at the charts. I thought why in the world should I crunch numbers that these Wall Street HFs and institutions try to do. Im so better than this. So I keep going to bars and having drinks partying all night using tinder etc thinking when an exit liquidity rally to ATH comes about in JulyAugust 2022 I will short the entire market. And soon Wall Street will remember me as the only guy who saw it all coming to the perfect date.  So I created this illusion in my head that in Q4 2022 we will 10000 get our recession because the liquidity in the market was starting to decrease. So I told literally every huge player on Wall Street about this macro idea. I also try to impose my thoughts on each one of you that in Q4 we will have a recession.  But I got so deluded into my illusionary world that I never tried to calculate could we be early to a recession even before Q4.   Now it turns out we could. 2Q of ve GDP could come by July. Its a 50 chance though. Meaning if it happens i ain't gonna get the glory for this crisis. Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry are. So im gonna piss off in the corner writing this post.  ampx200B  Lets quickly recap how it all unfolded this week but before we do that lets look at the prediction we did beforehand for the most crazy week in my last post.       Earnings went horrible hence Case 2 is being followed.formatpngampautowebpamps00a5b3fc8938ad33265022ed285ed637ad47787f  ampx200B  Earnings season   As we all know this week earnings were going to be the most important one going forward for Q2 because 56 megacaps carried $8T in SampP500. We also had GDP no coming out on Thursday as we discussed in my last post. Lets see how it all went.  ampx200B  Tech Earnings Seasonformatpjpgampautowebpamps1405b4fa92b679c534e704f4e658937cb8ddfc72  ampx200B  ampx200B   April 25  Monday   Cococola Analysis  Monday was pretty brutal for Asian Markets because China was further going into lockdown. We also had a palm oil ban on exports. But in the USA something happened. DXY went up but the bonds yields went down meaning people were buying USA bonds for safe havens or maybe dumping Chinese bonds for the USA.  ampx200B  KO Earningsformatpngampautowebpamps64e104c2f19b2a66953b5eca0791ee13b54eb3e4  When Cocola earnings came out they beat est. because they had raised prices of their drinks and were kinda flaunting corporate greed on the balance sheet or some might argue they were just preparing themselves for recession or stagflation.  So the stock rallied monetarily for the day and had a positive effect on the stock market.   ampx200B  KO T.A.formatpngampautowebpampsefff82a22fde6f90dfa592d793cf4243a4b2e0a0  As for technicals you can clearly see in the 1hr chart the stocks had what you call Bearish divergence and then the stock went down to test lower levels later on in the week when everything was getting hammered.  If the candles start closing below the white line then the buy zone for dip buying would be the green lines which are close to 1.618.  ampx200B  ampx200B   April 26  Tuesday   Microsoft and Alphabhet  Good cop bad cop   Boi oh boi this day will be remembered by many people in the upcoming months.  ampx200B  MSFT Earningsformatpngampautowebpamps198cd7f826b6f836065df8033534ebb92d946127  Microsoft kickstarted the show with a beating est. Hence stock rallied. They too had earnings quite similar to Coke..  ampx200B  MSFT T.A.formatpngampautowebpampse25ef0eb1ab175a74c28b0d8a581baf5e5478703  As for technicals well the earnings were great so im not expecting a 1.618 but just 1 fib guarantees for the ABC correction wave.  ampx200B  ampx200B  GOOGL Earningsformatpngampautowebpamps53b27e63405637e4f0c695aeec6727ed2c786c79     Bot now came the google earnings in after hours. Markets had gone up because of Microsoft. Everyone got confident well Google is the most profitable business on the planet. Surely they wont miss anything. But revenue and net income came below exp. Youtube got hit badly by advertising. Maybe people are going out more often and don't watch YouTube that much more as was the case in the pandemic. Also finance YouTubers are doing horribly badly.  But the company announced a dividend in the form of a share buyback of $70B but the market was still not happy. The stock dropped 5 in post market hours.  But visa earnings came quite well so the market was gonna be in a jolly mood the next day because  transactional revenue was growing meaning people were buying the dips.  ampx200B  GOOGL T.A.formatpngampautowebpampsc41a2ed50046c7d5349da599826a926a7517aa9b     As for technicals the 1.618 in the ABC correction wave is coming 100. The price action looks so weak that im not even bothering to use divergences. Just keep buying this stock at support levels.  ampx200B  ampx200B   April 27  Wednesday   Meta Paypal Pinterest Qualcomm  Pack of 4   Oh these guys im not gonna bother with their charts or balance sheet because everything was pretty simple in their balance sheet and T.A.  Well Meta is kinda based on the principles of Netflix. Only subscribers matter. So daily users increased but monthly users didn't. EPS went up and also the stock was already beaten that badly it had no choice but to go up.  Paypal kinda had earnings like Visa. Transactional revenue was growing.  Pins as Meta was beaten up bad. It beat estimates monthly users declined but it went up because revenue per user increased.  Qualcomm I have no idea.  ampx200B  ampx200B    April 28  Thursday   Amazon and Apple  ampx200B  AMZN Earningsformatpngampautowebpampsa15ec5df4b9853fb74e75575a31946b4cc206ebc  AAPL Earningsformatpngampautowebpamps6be191d9f21931c96c2ba2f7914e1cfb1cec3fc6  Thursday was all about Apple and Amazon. Everyone knew before that Amazon would miss earnings because of the Rivian thing and Apple sales were gonna be strong.  So what happened  No one expected Amazon's earnings to come in this horribly. Now reports are coming in that everyone hates Bezos XD. Also Apple did an outlook thing for Q2 that they will get hit badly because of chips supply chains. Since Q1 earnings are already priced what better way for Q2 than by shorting the company as directed by Tim.   ampx200B  AMZN T.A.formatpngampautowebpampse598b375e2e51a77d373b7b630e46791e2635488  AAPL T.A.formatpngampautowebpamps3e922591b08a5c7a0211381e858d0d6c4b5db32f  As for Amazon technicals surely by know you might have heard of the wyckoff distribution and accumulation. Green box should hold accumulation else it could turn out to be redistribution.   For Apple well in short $138139 support is coming 100.  ampx200B  ampx200B   April 29  Friday   Judgement Day  Think of it as the day when the court gives its final verdict. Well the stock market gave one hell of it to investors in a single day. April turned out to be the worst month for markets since 2008's October GFC. SampP500 had its worst four month since 1939 Great depression and Nasdaq since 1970. To everyone's surprise but hey not us we got that ve GDP print. And by Q4 2022 we will certainly get our recession.  ampx200B  ampx200B   Things are only going to get much worse from here.    So why am I saying this. Can't we all just simply short the market and make insane amounts of money in the way down. Turns out it ain't easy as it seems. Now you have got to be dealing with what we call turbulence in the market. We may go up and down go up and down. Meaning options are pretty much useless in the market. The only choice you have got is swing trading in futures or the normal market.  So find a favorite youtuber who predicted all the things in the market like Recession bond drought commodity shock stock market crash etc. And if you cant find the guy then how about reading my piece below and heck even sharing with your friends about how this guy was so close to figuring it all out but he was just too damn lazy for wallstreet fast life.   Don't try to give me a job in Dms unless you're a Warren Buffet. I love flying solo and cleaning the toilets at Black Rock. Yes i love my job.    ampx200B  So now we shall discuss the three questions that need answering      Q1  How much is J powell gonna raise rates.  So my readers know how I dont just give out my secrets that easily. I need you all to work too and come to your own conclusions. So in my last post I gave you all the homework that what was the third observation in the chart below.  ampx200B  Homework Chart  Yellow lines  Wage inflation  Red line  CPI inflation  White  FED rate hikeformatpngampautowebpamps5fcb1c6c62e6b2af53f83506c3349f5cd1bd4126  The answer to that question is FED has to raise rates at least the half of what CPI annualized inflation is or almost equal to it. Although some might argue the Taylor rule states that its actually double but seriously my charts don't lie to me.  So now you all must be wondering okay so half of say like 8 is 4. What's the big fuss about. Turns out technically your 4 is gonna go to a maximum of 8 due to IHS and trend lines breaks.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps0d136ac9bb1ccfcc2d4c71b5617bff9a2f51f5d6  So idk what fundamental analysis or news comes around will led to such technicals. But the chart is telling me that the 10yr bonds are going to 6 to 8 by 2023 but the terminal rates are still projecting 3.2 by Aug 23. We have got room considering the labor market is robust and strong.  Hypothesis 1  Terminal rates projection will go to 6 by Aug 2023.  Heres the calculation on how it could.  50X6  3  0.25  3.25 by eoy.  5 X 0.50  2.5  Total  5.75  ampx200B  So what impact will it have   Almost certainly you're gonna get recession coz you will be raising rates in a contracting economy.  ampx200B  At the end of large cycles we have Recessionformatpngampautowebpampse8c1abbf5a3effd16fca362fc109443e055ae0c4  Hypothesis 2  FEDU turns and doesn't raise rates over 2  Welcome to Japan where you keep your bond yields down inflate the dollar by printing even more and send all your assets to the moon.  ampx200B  Note  Million Dollar Advise  Lets also look at a GDP chart over here which only the few selected people on Wall Street know about.  ampx200B  GDP negative  print vs Stock Market crashformatpngampautowebpampsc4f8de83709aef26c240cf187fe5acce0fb3a957  This chart tells us well the first negative print is priced in the market. Question now remains whether the next GDP nos are going to be positive or negative.    If we are going to get positive nos by July then the stock market should go up in Q2.    if we are gonna get that 2nd negative print and complete the definition of 2Q of negative GDP growth you're talking about 50 in Q2 itself.   So you have got a lot of number crunching to do with big banks and institutions reading my post. Retailers don't try it. Just keep buying the dip with cash i told you to accumulate. Don't rush in coz buying stocks this year is going to be like buying groceries. Or you can just place your first two orders at 30 amp 40 and cancel the noise.  ampx200B  Q2  How much will Bond get destroyed  We have talked about this in  Credit risk america  post that bonds are to be bought bw May 16 June 16. At least that's what historical technicals in TLT are telling me which is an iShare 20yr ETF.   As for 10yr bonds idk guys. This bond is tricky. It follows the terminal rate which is currently 3.2. My calculation says 6. So more selloff I guess.  ampx200B  Terminal Rateformatpngampautowebpamps596d6e54b6360f23d350f75fd52a0489bb19452f  Remember  iShare is historical pattern and 10yr bonds is current T.A. pattern. One of them will be right. Its either gonna be buying bonds buying at may 15june 15 or buying bonds at 6 or 8 terminal rates.  ampx200B  Q3  How much lower will stocks go  Well honestly speaking we are 100 going into a severe recession coz Jim Cramer said recession is gonna be mild. So 50 from the top.   We will talk more about this later or you can just check my last post for this   ampx200B  Q4  What is coming Short Recession Stagflation Depression   First will come stagflation coz we money printed so much in 2020. It takes 2yr for full effect of monetary policy plus supply inflation from China not Russia because China went into lockdown mode meaning less demand for oil and gas. Hence they will go down. No comments about other commodity.  Now we are tightening so deflation will come from 2023 to 2025 if the FED went with a rate hike to 4. We will also get our forgotten depression of 1921 somewhere around here for 1yr which is also called as longerlasting recession for more than 1yr. Lets see how it all unfolds.  ampx200B  Q5  What's the big deal with Liquidity  For this I suggest first watching Ray Dalio's video about how the economy works.  Remember HFs have access to a liquidity pool. Then we have pension funds on top of it. And on top of them we have VCs and on top of them private equity. And at last we have retailers.  Then analyze these charts below and come to your own conclusion.  These charts are by the author of Capital Wars who is considered the father of liquidity   ampx200B  ampx200B  ampx200B  60 months bond market theoryformatpngampautowebpampsdd70903c45482e683792b8599c8a560aa15c9a6b  We are currently in turbulenceformatpngampautowebpamps0e86b69ad5adaa395b8e6d63fa2daf1cf864633f  ampx200B  ampx200B  But how about Q6 that no one of you is asking or thinking about it This shall be your H.W.  Q6  What's up with Forex market    Especially japan and euro.  tSOPpcPJ3779w1niMvdFf6gtSOPpcPJ3779w1niMvdFf6g  Remember  Dollar is strengthening meaning other currencies will lose its value more in dollars if they are not starting the tightening cycle. Hence JPY is getting destroyed. For Euro well wars and recession make it bad for investors to hold the EURO.  ampx200B  ampx200B  So again with lots of love. Keep enjoying your time. Remember to take the vacations in May like institutions would.  ampx200B  Thank you.  Sorry for ending weirdly. I'm a weirdo who is tired. I wanna go back and watch my animes and shows until institutions and HFs destroy my wonderful America. Don't know whose orders they are operating but it all seems like a planned attack on liquidity.  Regards  Uchiha","negative"
"If Ericks position moves 0.001 up he gets a million dollar.","Last time TSLA rally of 7 days made it go up 34.4. He could potentially make $34.4Tn in the span of a week.    Which would realistically make him the first trillionaire on this planet.   Because he bought calls.. for the company of the guy.. thats almost the first trillionaire.             Im buying TSLA shares.","positive"
"Deutsche Bank Put Option play because they fail to deliver GME in EU","Jooo what up half degenerate half autistic WSB gang  dont think Im trying to do some Dr. Burry shit I was just having this idea and wanted to share it with u. This is what this sub was about or nah  A friend of mine tried to do a basic free of payment transfer of long GMEs from deutsche Banks broker Maxblue to IBKR to finally DRS them. If u dont know about DRS u should catch up and secure ur assets before shit hits the fan.  Anyways the initial transfer was Oktober 21. since then they didnt respond to mails neither from my friend nor the INBOUND broker IBKR. They booked Shares of and they literally disappeared for a few weeks and so on. My friend Contacted the German SEC BaFin and a lawyer they r waiting still probably suing but hoping still to get things done.  If a major prime broker still cant deliver securities wich they should have but clearly fail to deliver does it make sense to buy puts  In this case $DB.   This is not financial advise","negative"
"Wonder what people short in the market so I can buy it.","As the title said. Give me some undervalued stonks that I can buy the coming years... I'm currently not looking for large caps and would like to buy all the pretty mid cap and small cap shares you sell on margin call. Give me some ideas  People say this is one of the worst stock markets we've seen in History. I see it as one of the best buying opportunity's in History. ","positive"
"Tesla calls. I cash for profit you get paid.","Since a fellow crayon eater is banking on profiting off his puts and blessing people in this community I will bless you with call profits. I have 1000 56 calls and 1050 520 calls.          $5k in profit 1 lucky person gets $420.69    $10k in profit 2 lucky people get $420.69            Comment below for your random chance to win some money..maybe           Lets Go","positive"
"ESTE  But I need help","Dear WSB  Thanks for having me on... long time listener first time caller.  After losing about all my savings trading options a few years ago I concluded I'm too dumb to have control of my own money so after I saved up again I gave it to someone with a basic education and a nice suit he promised he wouldn't touch my wife. However turns out this guy wasn't great at it either... after 2 years my money had neither grown nor lost it all. And so came the time now when my wife and I were in a position to buy our first house. Of course asking for our savings back coincided with the recent market selloff and the portfolio was down a little. It turns out that our BMWdriving finance guy scared for his reputation had tried to recoup the $3000 loss on $200k by going nearly allin on ESTE. That $3000 quickly turned into $30000.   This $200k was to be our down payment we worked hard to save that both Greek immigrants and now I'm facing falling out of escrow because I don't have enough funds to meet the mortgage broker's requirements for the underwriting. The deadline is this week.  To avoid losing our first home and my wife leaving me which ape do I need to send her nudes to in order to arrange for some GMEstyle action on ESTE I haven't done any DD on ESTE but I guess my Frappuccinosipping finance guy has so there could actually be some underlying value under the hood.  So is there a chance to rally the troops Or do I just start looking for oneman tents  Yours meekly","negative"
"Bullish Or Bearish","Below I have attached an image. Given that this community is filled with nothing but braniacs I figured this is the place to get an asnwer. Using your Technical astronomy analysis skills and pro investing due diligence I want help answering the question. Is this graph bullish or bearish Let me know  formatpngampautowebpampsd65182ab193099d86b991ad2274fccf9600a50ad","neutral"
"ES Technical Analysis by Adam Mancini","  FOMC upcoming. Looking to 4085 402535 targets. Multi day rally likely there. Either way Bulls only back in control above 4200.","positive"
"Sell $Z puts","They wrote down their 4.5 billion in home inventory last quarter. I believe it was a 250m loss on top of other write downs before. They are now going to reverse mostall of that and post a surprise gain. Liquidity in market is still an issue so could be a muted bump to price and IV is high. Also even if the quarter is great managment kay just provide meh guidance. So instead of buying calls we put IV on our side and sell puts a few months out.  Be careful when picking the puts to sell with the price difference between buying and selling. A big difference means there isn't much liquidity so selling it might be tough even if you are right. Go into this thinking worst case scenario I get Zillow shares super cheap it's already cheap or I get a few hundred from selling the puts. You may have to wait out the whole time on the put.  Unlike open door and redfin Zillow makes around 250m in cash flow per quarter for their normal biz operations. That's $1 billion annualized on a 10 billion market cap. They have a boatload of cash and home inventory but also debt. Either way fair value with ibuying gone is 15 billion.  They messed up with their ibuying but have been saved by inflation. Look at posts in this subreddit to see the mood on housing. We want to inverse them and the rest of the people who don't know how to read financial statements and look at the reality of home pricesactivity the past 3 months along with unemployment.   1 of portfolio.","positive"
"Fraternal Association of Gambling Gentlemen and Options Traders","Inductions     UserCast VoteVoters  None  Ejections     UserCast VoteVoters  None     FAQ   This is a voting system to add and remove people from the thread. Seven affirmative votes are required to induct or eject someone. Simply click one of the links below and put their username no u in the body of the message.  Begin Inductionsubjectinduct  Begin Ejectionsubjecteject","neutral"
"Why i think these Home price collapse apes are likely full of shit","Why i think you're most likely full of shit.  This is off the top of my head.  Also Strictly for the United States.  1. The increase in home purchase via cash was do to record low interest rates Not just during covid but going back all the way to 2012'ish 2. Rental prices in most populated areas have spiked due to lack of housing being available.  Where will all these people go unlike in 2008 where most fled to rentals to nurse their wounds. 3. People bought homes whether homestead or investment with locked in low interest rates.  Allowing them to save a significant amount of money on their mortgage or maximize their profits on the already strapped rental economy In many areas not all obviously 4. To tie in with 3.  I've never seen companies so hard up for employees.  Sure this could absolutely change.  But given the salaries some of these companies are offering.  I feel like many people would be interested.  They aren't  apparently they've found alternative incomes during covid No data to back that up but it's the only thing that appears to make sense.  Since there is no way a couple thousand dollars lasted people 5 or 6 months. 5. What exactly do you think would cause people to dump their rental properties or investment holdings that could be turned into rental properties.  When they're paying 2  3 interest and rental prices are skyrocketing In many areas  My personal shit opinion is that there will be a correction.  But nothing even close to resembling a crash.  Just some areas will cool down.  While others essentially continue along the same path without such a steep incline in home prices.  This shit never happens the way most of us peasants think it will.  Someone is sitting out there with a pair of aces though.  They're in the business and they know.  Reading articles is useless.   They'll never be forthcoming.","negative"
"Ruble what's happening with it and what will be happening in the future","So I've seen many people naively shorting Russian ruble so I thought I could express some my thoughts regarding this question as someone living in Russia and being interested in economics.   Ruble's current state  At MOEX Moscow Exchange we can buysell dollar for 7072 rubles and eur for 7578. This makes ruble technically more worth than it was before the war.  There's no such thing that we're not allowed to have foreign currency or that we pay 1230 for buying it it was a thing a few weeks ago but currently cancelled. But there's still a lot of limitations...   Why is it worth so much  Definitely not because our gov is playing 5 d chess. There are heavy limitations imposed such as  1. You can't cash out it 2. You can't transfer money abroad except $ 10k to your relatives or smh like that 3. ETFs of foreign companies are still not traded 4. Foreigners couldn't sell their assets from what I've seen they can now yet to be confirmed 5. Russians can't buy many foreign goods    1. Because of ban of visa and mastercard can't pay for google pay apple store steam etc.    2. Also many flights are cancelled so no reason to buy euro to spend in Europe if can't fly to Europe 6. Businesses still have to sell 80 of their foreign currency income 7. High deposit interest rates to make people prefer deposit to investing  The listed limitations obviously harm the economy more than if the ruble was let floating.  There are also reserves gold gas for rub and probably many more which keep ruble high.   Is it gonna fall  I think yes. Like I said the central bank and gov are going to eventually loosen the exchange rate.  If we look into the past back to events of early 2014 you can check that despite sanctions ruble only started falling on September 2014 half a year after the Crimea annexation.  This means that the gov held it for some time artificially and then when everything was settled let it go from 33 rub per usd peaked to almost 70 and then bounced between 55 and 70.  My bet 90 rub per dollar by 2023.","negative"
"OilEmbargo in europe incoming","The german economy minister has just announced that a large part of europe will introduce an oil embargo against russia this week.","negative"
"My Yolo trade of the Month is Morgan Stanley $100 strike calls might be ambitious but banks might be over due for a run up. Hopefully this can make nice gain porn.","","positive"
"Did i fuck up","Dam it Im panicking about one month fb puts expiring friday.   The fed meetings are to close and Im down 50 like usual and Im considering averaging down by adding but I dont want to get fucked   I almost took a 12 loss today becsuse i was about to dump them but the spike knocked me out putting me back at a high percentage on being down.   Im not usually a bear but I thought Id ride it down to chance it.   Ugh i feel stupid and kind of regret my play now. Thinking maybe I should have went with calls or stayed completely out.   Seems like people are pilling in towards friday and i hope i can sell before friday.   I took the risk so theres no turning back now. But if tomorrow fb doesnt drop below 200 and instead goes higher Im seriously considering either taking the least of a loss i possibly can or add more contracts and hope for tge best.  After reading all the analytics on what could happen in this meeting its a coin toss.   Im kind of leaning more towards just dumping tomorrow and take a hit.   Im curious if anyone out here going through similar situation or if im the only retard thst fucked up.","negative"
"Thank you to whoever of you degenerates bought these AMD puts from me was hoping to pick it up on the cheap","","positive"
"FINRA WANTS TO LIMIT OUR TRADING OPTIONS","So FINRA is looking to limit options available for the ETF's that retail investors have. This is just another way they want to go after retail folks and lets the wall street hedge funds be able to take advantage of it. We should oppose this.   ampx200B  ","negative"
"Last year my biggest one day loss was $141K. Imagine 300 Googl contracts going worthless. I learned a lot from that.","","negative"
"Why is it that Warren Buffet is buying everything rn Are we about to go into a recession why does he choose now to buy What does the old man see","Im just throwing this out there to see if anyone wants to try and justify this I personally think Im going to go DCA for the next 6 months   What are yall plans for the next 6 months","negative"
"This may be what the F happened yesterday. We are living in an algorithm world.","Like everyone else I was very confused what the hell happened yesterday and I found this little gem piece of information that may explain it.  UVXY what unable to be shorted from 428 to 52 here is the link showing the start and end time for short sale restrictions. This is the only thing I've found that could be a reason for it.  ","neutral"
"Clover Health CLOV DD  The Confirmation Bias Bag Holders Want","My Position January 2023 Calls Accumulating Shares  Current Average $3.27  Oh yes a Clover DD. Or my attempt at what DD should be that perhaps only moderately sucks. It only mentions Chamath one other time than this if that eases your smoothedout brains or triggers them. Brace yourself I get all poetic license with punctuation. Or dont because you wont read...either way.  To be clear I wouldnt make a bet based on what I say but maybe some will find it usefulsupplemental. I want to do more of these so quick plug for the PreMarket crew to host a DD HowTo as they've mentioned I'd be all over that.  From a fellow smoothbrained operator that worked in the Managed Care space negotiating contracts as a provider and has contracted with this companyhas seen the tech.  Target Price  this could be variable but I am targeting a share price of 1 PS for 2022 Projected Sales I estimate over $7 based on current guidance  which is over $3 billion in revs. Mostly because I am a moron and I dont see how 1  Sales isnt a good price for this level of growth and I think they will hit their sales target which I will say like 6 times. Maybe my fellow apes can assist with valuation. Discounted cashflows were not specifically calculated but management did signal cash flow positive by yearend on the annual call. Their major established competitors are trading at over 1.20 sales to just over 2 PS UNH ANTM CI with an exception for CNC. The idea is that as Clover closes the gap on cash flow positive and posts the revenues it is expected to it would trade closer to the ratio that its counterparts trade at. The competition outside of Centene has a roughly 1 dividend but they also dont have the same growth trajectory though United does seem to impress sometimes mostly due to Optum in my experience. Variable target because cash flow could come soonerlater or revs could take a different trajectory.  Id amend my target then. Next earnings 5922.  The one other caveat to my target price is that I want to sell before the CEO dilutes with more shares. The only distribution was Q4 last year at least that is what I saw on SEC filings. With that said depending on how the year goes I will wait for Q4 this year to sell and potentially buy on a diproll into January 2024 calls based on updated guidance on membershiprevs throughout the year and after further dilution is absorbed after CEOexecutive comp hits. According to the 10K the CEO was awarded these shares on 172021 but maybe someone can educate me here  I didnt think I saw the dilution until Q4. Also I am not an expert on the options side but I dont care and will learn the hard way.  Clover is both a Managed Care Organization MCO and Direct Contracting Entity DCE which will come in handy later.  Aand awaaaay we goo  Why will Clover win  Clover is at its heart a tech company not saying I will value it as such being it is in the Managed Care space. Their Clover Assistant is this tech and it is pushed onto providers like providers used to push drugs onto innocent people sorry it is true  they used to bother the fuck out of me to get this Clover Assistant deployed and it worked. The tech does work too though. Patients being treated by providers using Clover Assistant have a reduced Medical Cost Ratio when compared to patients treated by providers that do not leverage the tool.  MCR  Cost of CarePMPM per member per month Revenues for the year see 10K and supplemental data.  So even if I dont capture all the aspects of why Clover Assistant positions Clover to profit the numbers speak for themselves in terms of medical outcomes and thusly medical spend. They publish this in a few places here is one    There was an even better graphic that illustrated that the longer the patient was being treated by a provider using CA the lower the MCR for that group made it for the prior year's cohorts so if they started FY 2018 MCR would be lower than if they started on FY 2019 etc . I got bored of trying to find it again I thought it was in the 10K but my 'MCR' in the Find function didnt actually find it for me. I saw it if you need to go find it.  This tech gives Clover a few advantages. I try to cover the main ones here and you will have to trust the results in a lower cost of care to prove this to be true  1. More accurate coding. If they are capturing more cooccurring diagnosis codes for their membersmore severe accurate versions of those diagnoses they can capture more revenue for themselves via an enhanced RISK Score which enhances their PMPM revenue that CMS pays currently over 50 of their revenue projected to be 13 in 2022. 2. Better communication to the Primary Care Provider PCP about the recent hospital visitsother types of care. Care Coordination is done by most MCOs but direct communication back to PCPs through the software they need to log on to when the patient is facing them helps them be better informed based on the claims history that they wouldnt traditionally have access to directly.  This allows providers to make better decisions that impact patients' longterm health trajectories. 3. It even offers PCPs recommendations for other innetwork specialists so that the PCP can give recommendations based on who will treat the patient at a lower cost of care when being referred out being innetwork means that have contracted rates rather than the provider referring to another specialist provider who will charge a metric fuckton in charges. I can attest. These charges are often what you hear about in sensationalized healthcare cost articles that is a conversation for a different day healthcare is still expensive. This matters to the PCP because they genuinely care about their fixedincome patients and would want to limit their outofpocket exposure if the information was readily available to share.  Traditionally they may not assist here and patients will just go to some outofnetwork provider potentially.  Clover Assist is also used in provider offices for traditional Medicare patients through the Direct Contract model where Clover isnt the insurer but a financial intermediary. I know less about that other than they receive the capitation payments and take on all the medical expense for the attributed membership that is the members of the provider partners  they act as Medicare essentially and to me this is fucking semantics but the take away is larger market size. They have proven to have the powerful tech to perform in this space being that the overall goal is to increase quality of care and reduce medical spend as a byproduct because of the MCR thing where they do better with patients whose provider uses Clover Assistant. This is an interesting fact because their target population isnt only those who are comfortable enough to enroll with a Medicare Advantage product roughly 45 of Medicareeligible people enroll in a managed care plan but all Medicareeligible folks potentially. I dont know of another MCO doing this.  Anecdotally staff members at the provider sites that use Clover Assist never really complained about it and say it is easy to use. I have surveyed some of them myself back then. These are folks that want to complain about all new tech. They are inundated with new software all the time that ends up being clunky. Even if new software is bettereasier to use they hate it because it is different than the greenscreen tech theyre used to in their old providers' offices based out of their old homes. This problem is fucking chronic in its own right but I digress.  Other TailwindsFeel Good Shit   Insurance business membership is up 25 beginning January 2022.     This is at least the second year they beat the average growth rate.        Ive seen their growth in industry reporting for my market at the time market  state and this growth is what ultimately caused my organization at the time to contract with them.  I always took notice and I am mediocre at best. I spent most days reading what you tards were up to.  This includes 101 new counties where Clover can now establish itself and its brand. This is almost double the 2021 numbers.  This is better than average 10 membership increase but they are still not one of the largest Medicare Advantage players in terms of total membership.  STAR Rating Increase to 3.5 last year.     This is huge. STAR ratings not only affect the PMPM rates paid to the MCO Clover insurance business but also the automatic membership allocation I know this happens from working at a publiclytraded MCO a few years ago I dont know why some members are automatically allocated but it happens. This windfall doesnt really impact their PMPM rates until 2023 but I believe they have the tech to climb to a 4.0 in FY 22 benefitting future cash flows in 2024 but would still need to be priced in. Also just general experience with CMS and the HEDISSTARS processes etc. will help in this effort. STAR rating matters and getting to 4 or better will put them in a much better position from a margin standpoint and a marketing standpoint. Admittedly this is speculation but the news should be wellreceived if they land it. It is for sure their goal and theyre already growing at a high rate in terms of membership without this card in their pocket. If they increased their STAR I would consider making this a longer play.  Dilution from convertible debt should be over according to the 10K. Convertible debt is finally nil.  Leadership hinting at profitable quarters by Q4 at least on a cash basis. Revenues are easier to predict outside of some adjustment items see next bitthey are likely being conservative on the medical cost side due to what just happened with covid  they got hammered.  Projecting to 2x revenue compared to FY21. This is somewhat easy to gauge as they know roughly their average PMPM and open enrollment is closed so membership shouldnt have the opportunity to really dip at all until 2023. It should only grow slowly from folks that can qualify outside of Open Enrollment countered by members who unfortunately pass on to...wherever it is they believe they go. This assumption could be confirmed by beating topline estimates for the last 4 quarters even if they have missed EPS. The one caveat to this is retroactive adjustments based on RISK scoreother potential adjustments that may escape my current capacity of understanding.  Covid headwinds should really be abated at this point. They operate in some tough states for covid. NJ is their biggest market I believe it still is it is where they started and NJ got clobbered by covid. Some of the other states are states where covid measures were lateignored. This carried into 2021 because care was interrupted as well as the use of Clover Assist had diminished some with a lot of telehealth visits taking place over traditional ones not as thorough of a visit with this population. More elective surgeries were pushed back which increased the severity of underlying issues in aggregate this also these procedures carried into 2021 along with other smaller covid surges. I believe 2022 seems to present a decreased risk of Covidrelated expenseimpacts so far  and relatively speaking.  Insider Trades     Chamath bought $10 million in shares over $5 in November 2021.     Chelsea Clinton on the board recently bought $250K shares as well as at least one other insider so far in Q1 2022.     Previously issued shared in 2021 offering were at $5.75 presumably wouldnt see much sell for less than that okay not really insider trade but seems relevant.     No insider sales that I can see.  Direct Contracting TLDR  big growth which again puts Clover in a financial intermediary position rather than an insurer semantics difference is they are technically signed up as traditionalMedicare and Clover assists the providers is set to explode  they will need to learnexecute in this space though. They landed contracts with provider communities in 8 states for the 2021 FY. They have ramped up to 22 states in 2022 to be clear CMS needs to approve they just dont get to enter because they have contracts as I understand it. Their success can grow exponentially without even adding states if they execute and share savings with providers. The provider community will spread that success via word of mouth which medical results being compared to covid times should put them in a position to win should. Providers are very much $ driven if they dont harm their own patients or sometimes it is about excluding the poor ones I digress. So if they can pawn the labor off and still make money they will.  While the direct contracting model did take some flak in the news from some politicians CMSMedicare isnt going to get away from the valuebased model any time soon in my opinion. It is known as the future. Medicare is however getting away from providers volunteering to participate in valuebased programs so partnering with a DCE Clover in this example is appealing to them because they can do less while remaining compliant and not losing patients. I dont know a ton about this program as I worked on the provider side and we had our own internal team who worked with our providers for their participation in this CMS program as they largely did work similar to this already. Clover did approach us on participating they will have more luck with the smaller groups in my opinion  or the really large providerowned groups. Mine was hospitalowned. Clover is taking on fullrisk at least most of the time in this model which obviously is full risk in costs full reward in savings. Theyre betting big that they can do better than Medicare and their reward is that they get to keep the money that Medicare would have otherwise spent keep in mind they also offer ALL of the services Medicare does they cannot destroy patients lives to do this they must manage their health to do it. I dont find a stretch that they can be more effective than the government.  Some experts may consider this an oversimplification.     As I stated earlier this is all populations that are not selecting a Medicare Advantage plan. This opens their target market to anyone that participated with Medicare essentially. Meanwhile the MCOs will fight over Medicare Advantage which I have heard plan presidents of major insurers call a cashcow when done properlymultiple times.  They also participate in every benefit enhancement CMS offers for MA for higher PMPM revenue the risk is also they offer more services than traditional in every market they operate. Their whole schtick is more for less but that tells me they put their money where their mouth is.  Aside from claims payable which all MCOs carry like AP and isnt really debt they are relatively lowno debt.  Their main technical competition would be Optum United but I have not seen them on any DCE list. So they do not participate in Direct Contracting yet. They are the major player in insurance by a large margin and that carries into Medicare Advantage too. If anything I would see them as the buyout candidate though I do not believe that is the goal at all  dont get me wrong.  I consider the tech their moat if they can keep utilizationengagement up and continue increasing the lives that are on it.  OtherRestated Headwinds  Cash was $300 million at the end of 2021. They burnt that much in operations roughly through 2021. They recently closed a share offering after the 3rd quarter 2021 earnings. The only reason I am not nervous about cash is the fact that their revenues should grow with expenses due to membership and if they needed cash they would have tried to make sure they had at least a years worth when completing the offering and said as much in the 10K. Covid did a number on Clover but the large bulk of that is over I believe they have enough cash to take them to cashflowpositive in FY22.  To go along with this Management must reduce both MCR for insurance business and DCM for direct contracting business. If these are not reduced to under 100 each cash headwinds will become greater sooner and I may have to change my thesis. I believe this is the key metric to look for in the next earnings as I expect them to hitcome close to revenue and membership since it is again mostly known.  I believe there are measures on Clover Assistant that are also published but this is likely going to increase with more membershipDCE expansion. What would be really interesting is watching the lives managed under the tool. The more of their lives as a  of the total that can be managed under the tool the more likely they are to decrease MCR and DCM in the coming quartersyears. Providers discontinuing their utilization would be bad but really only a risk on the insurance side DC participants have to as part of the deal.  Any pandemic residual impacts could creep up again. New variants etc that could cause more butts in hospital beds. That would be bad for cash.  Any further dilution could change my target but I don't expect this until later in the year.  TLDR  I bought CLOV $5 calls 12023 considering 12024 after earnings. I also hold shares at an average of $3.27. Target for now roughly $7 and some combination of being in the moneyridiculous IV for the calls. Clover good  growth big  technology work  buy at own risk. What do I know I am just a bag holder.  For what it is worth my gains on the calls are covering my share losses so far because of timing.","positive"
"GOOG amp AMZN  upcoming 120 stock split","GOOG amp AMZN  upcoming 201 split  Greetings All   I havent seen much talk about the upcoming 201 splits on these two stocks GOOG amp AMZN and would like to hear your opinion on it.   GOOG is set to split at the close of business July 15th  AMZN is set to split at the close of business July 3rd   At the current prices GOOG would split to 117.15 per share and AMZN would split to 124.50.   As long term holds these prices look pretty attractive in my opinion. NFA. The amount of volume these stocks will trade at post split will be very interesting.   Anyways your thought   Thanks","positive"
"Airbnb beats estimates with 70 revenue growth as travel rebounds  $ABNB","  Airbnb reported betterthanexpected results on Tuesday and gave an upbeat forecast for the second quarter as the company sees a rebound in travel coming out of the pandemic.  Here are the key numbers   Loss per share 3 cents vs 29 cents expected by analysts according to Refinitiv.  Revenue $1.51 billion vs $1.45 billion expected according to Refinitiv.  Revenue in the first quarter surged 70 from a year earlier despite pandemic concerns macroeconomic headwinds and the war in Ukraine the company said. Airbnbs net loss narrowed to $19 million from $1.2 billion the same quarter a year ago.  Growth is expected to stay strong in the current quarter. Airbnb said revenue will be between $2.03 billion and $2.13 billion topping analysts average estimate of $1.96 billion. The low end of the range would represent growth of 52.  However the company said that risks to bookings include additional Covid outbreaks any impact to travel from the conflict in Ukraine and consumer price sensitivity.  For the first quarter Airbnb reported 102.1 million nights and experiences booked surpassing prepandemic levels. Analysts expected the number to come in at 100.87 million according to StreetAccount.  Travelers are also becoming increasingly confident in booking trips further in advance. At the end of April the company had 30 more nights booked for the summer travel season than at the same time in 2019.  Gross booking value which Airbnb uses to track host earnings service fees cleaning fees and taxes totaled $17.2 billion in the first quarter exceeding Wall Streets estimate of $16.54 billion per StreetAccount. Thats up 67 year over year.  Average daily rates rose 5 from a year ago to $168 in the quarter. The company anticipates ADR to be flat in the second quarter on a yearoveryear basis.  Stable ADR in Q2 2022 suggests that Nights and Experiences Booked growth in Q2 will be a good indicator of GBV growth in Q2 both on a yearover year basis the company said.  Airbnb has benefited from changes in the way people work and travel caused by the Covid19 pandemic. Workers were no longer tethered to their desks and remote options became the norm with many workfromanywhere policies still in place today.  Airbnb said last week it would allow its employees to work from wherever they want in the U.S. Starting in September staffers can also live and work in more than 170 countries for up to 90 days a year in each location.  Airbnb said longterm stays of 28 days or more remained its fastestgrowing category by trip length compared to 2019. They accounted for 21 of gross nights booked in the first quarter.  The company also gave an update on its humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Airbnb offered free temporary housing for up to 100000 refugees fleeing the war. To date more than 14000 people have received temporary accommodations through Airbnb in Europe and more than 34000 people signed up to offer their homes to refugees the company said.  After people began booking listings in Ukraine with no intention to stay as a way to support hosts the company waived guest and host fees. Airbnb said that approximately 600000 nights were booked in Ukraine in the quarter with a total GBV of about $20 million.","positive"
"A recession at this stage is almost inevitable Former Fed vice chair Roger Ferguson","  Current high inflation is due to money printing and lack of production of goods during covid and high demand since then.  They can raise interests but they will also hurt companies trying to recover their production output to prepandemic levels.  Also the dollar is already in history highs markets have already priced in interests hikes  formatpngampautowebpamps7b5150d638704544b5845ae98f1daab4b21e57bf","negative"
"Dumping my entire savings into chip stocks"," Hello I'm a 25 year old PhD student. I have 23 years left and make enough money from my stipend to live and save small amounts. I have that juicy intergenerational wealth about 20k in my savings. I've gotten my toes wet with investing over the past two years had in about 3.5k but that's now 2.5k  . I want to go all in on chip stocks but I'm not sure when to buy. I'm most attracted to intel because it has a dividend and is a safeish stock. But I also have a stake in nvidia amd and tsmc. I would like to increase my stake in all of these. What things should I take into consideration when buying these stocks during this crash","positive"
"Palo Alto Networks Stock Analysis made by Chartered Financial Analyst","  Topics covered  What Palo Alto does  Cybersecurity tailwinds  Why $PANW is in a better position than competitors  Acquisitions strategy  DCF  P.S. It has timestamps in the description. You can go directly to the part you care about.","neutral"
"Wall Street drops as Fed focus takes hold 10yr Treasuries breach 3","Wall Streets main indexes dropped on Monday giving up early gains in volatile trading as investors adopted a cautious tinge ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this week where policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates.   Source  ","neutral"
"No local Wendys Lost all my tendies","","negative"
"Give us hope War w the CCCP economic war w the CCP worried about DT w his peepee on CCTV JP raising BPs and Roe v Wade. JC man just fuck me","Pooh Bear is intent on cracking down on Jack Ma until the Yuan is less valuable than the Rubel while Poutine is intent on declaring nuclear war.   Powell is about to raise interest rates faster than any time in my lifetime after inflation rose faster than any time in my lifetime.   Every fucking thing is down except Tesla but we hate that guy still right and no one has a compelling case for why it should turn around.   And now were all going to have to raise our wives boyfriends kids.  Does anyone have anything remotely convincing to share so we dont all just lemming the fuck off a small hill while Disney films a fake documentary of us","negative"
"5222 SPY Apple QQQ VIX daily TA","    Well apparently May just might bring the rally That was a hell of a rally we just saw today. And I gotta say that ones gonna be in the memory bank for quite a long time. I dont think ive ever seen SPY rally 2.38 in less than 1.5 hours like that. Absolutely nuts. I swear every Monday has some wild reversal like this lately. I definitely looking at the overall trend and volume today would not have guess we woulda finished green on the day. But here we are finishing up 0.6 at 414.48.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsd076e54560fc8b385911be78b384fe4087e7327d  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps49210da60a8fb9909af74829313a82837a1209bb  As you can see SPY is still in an overall downward channel right now. However we are only about $3 from breaking the resistance line from the major downward channel we have been in. It will be interesting to see if that is broken and we rally the rest of the week or not.   Current support now lies at 403 with extreme support down near 390 IF things start ramping up bear style again.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsca0fd2eeb985fbc735ce6c7ff2e5d91d4c31ceb4  As I had mentioned on Friday the VIX daily chart our happy spot is 28 to 33.5 which is right where we closed within today. It appeared early one that 32.32 was going to be the top of the range but by end of day we were hitting highs of 37.58.   The VIX has not been this high since March 8th and SPY has not seen the 405 low since May 2021.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps9c6b49dfd63c855b6d8933de4dd51e939a6b9ae2  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpampsd0aa40ee20985392ddeaf452ec645c41f1fafae1  During this mornings pre market I called out 405 as the next support for SPY and we hit off it within 0.02 cents. Right now we are still within that massive red downward channel overall. Tomorrow 418 will be resistnace to break the current downward trend line which is also the next resistance level.   Support will remain down near 403 as the most extreme.   Major support levels 410 à 405    Major resitance levels 415 à 420 à 422.5   I am pretty conflicted now on where spy is headed. Before power hour I worked under the impressive that what ever trend today had assuming it was strong would have been inversed the following day especially if we got a very bearish 400405 finish. This finish today and the end of day rally has me thinking two things. 1. Much like in January when we flash crashed to 410 the market hit capitulation and finally bought the fucking dip along with the VIX high over 36 for first time in two months the fear finally peaked. Or 2. There was some sort of leak of FOMC and markets rallied based off that. The third scenario is based off two and makes me think we are going to rally into FOMC and dump like never before think top 5 type of red days once the fed fucks it all up.   Today is either going to turn out to be the worlds most massive bull or bear trap.   Days like today are why I love day trading over swing trading. I dont gotta be right for 24 hours. I just gotta be right in that moment.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps3c55ac57f0a5190cb7ee656c3a52bf5f989e334b  Apple too saw quite the red day that turned into a bullish day seeing a bounce off its lower channel support of 153 today for the yellow bear channel. Apple also finished right under its key resistance of the daily 200ema at 158.16.  I mentioned last week that Apple rarely has more than two candles in a row under the daily 200 ema so it will be interesting if we were to rally from here on out and hold above the daily 200ema.   Support tomorrow for apple is 152 with resistance at the daily 200ema of 158 à daily 8ema at 160.59 followed by upper channel resistance at 165 unlimited upside.  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps08d64576eea2e7d7511d088074cba6576fbebd97  QQQ saw a nice recovery along with Apple and SPY of course. Today they made a new lower low reaching that 310 support level I had mentioned on Friday.   With 310 now being support QQQ will look for resistance at 319 à 322.5 daily 8ema à 328.21 and support at 318 à 310.  Overall QQQ downward channel is much milder much like Apples compared to SPYs which is quite aggressive.   Overall knowing this is FOMC meeting and literally anything can happen im trying to stay unbiased. Right now I see some bullish momentum being carried into the day tomorrow but I honestly would not be surprised tomorrow to see a bullish day putting us up near that daily 8ema at 422 only to fall short EOD and finish the week essentially flat leading into FOMC. The markets true sentiment will be known Wednesday though. And of course once 230 hits everyone better hang onto their hats   10 challenge  Today was one of those days for me where I felt like I couldnt do my normal strategy of get in hold and ride the 8ema wave down. Almost every candles especially watching the bullish bearish volume had some sort of fake out on it. I ended up resulting in 0dte scalps for most of the day and hit my highest number of trades ever in a day at 24.   Despite my daily profits pl going up and down a lot I ended up finishing at 1.5x daily profit goal which I am very happy with. That power hour reversal burnt me to a crisp and I had to salvage the day with scalps.   522002 Call 0dte 35  522022 Call 0dte 40  522022 Call 2dte 10  522022 Call 0dte 30  522022 Put 0dte 34  522022 Put 2dte 7  522022 Put 0dte 3  522022 Call 0dte 10  522022 Call 0dte 15  522022 Call 2dte 9  522022 Put 0dte 10  522022 Put 2dte 6  522022 Put 0dte 5  522022 Put 0dte 23  522022  Put 2dte 6  522022 Put 0dte 30  522022 Call 0dte 10  522022 Put 0dte 85  522022 Call 2dte 5  522022 Call 2dte 6  522022 Call 0dte 15  522022 Call 0dte 35  522022 Call 0dte 5  522022 Call 2dte 11  522022 Call 0dte 25  ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps11f73bc1b02291e5d69ec10dea899ebaa3f6aea6  These are my current positions.   holding my MES cash secured puts that were down 100 and have since obviously recovered.   I averaged down my 441 59dte calls at 410 today but missed my opportunity at 405 to average down or those would be green but im okay with that.      I also held my now 4dte 432C lottos all day and EOD averaged them down.   I am pretty confident by EOW I will see those 432C and 441c green.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps3ee47a13c28971f71a30b1cc4afbdd7c1ad6e47a  Not much updated here on hyperwheel as I was not able to roll any puts today. I am looking to possibly roll over night or tomorrow though on a bullish follow up day.","negative"
"It's very easy to cherry pick vague patterns in the charts to confirm any bias like how people love to compare any drop to a 2008 chart.","I'm not saying they are necessarily wrong I'm just saying they're not necessarily right just because a pretty chart has a few similar dips.   Don't base things on just the looks of one  chart. Use a little more data than that.  I see too many people just looking at a couple spikes and dips and jump to a conclusion just because saw a few similar spikes and dips.   Newsflash any chart you'll find will be made up of tons of peaks and throughs to pick from.  It's down to how psychologically flexible you are to decide if there's enough of a similarity.   Here's an example of how comparing the current chart of the SampP500 can give you both bearish and bullish prediction if you keep it simple and vague  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps85e53d01c713349db34346f28c4233e8e60b3156  I can find the same pattern in 2008 right now or right before a bull run. Of course the actual market conditions were very different in all cases.    This was taken from a post here a few days ago comparing us to 2008  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpamps417b7fb44e052736cccd47b5248b4f2ef380b7a5  Presented like that it looks like we're obviously in 2008 2.0 right  But people back in that first 1234 pattern from 2 years ago probably also thought this might be 2008 repeating itself. But instead it went on a bull run.   You can make the case that liquidity got pumped in to rescue the market from going into 2008 mode so it's not the same.  But you can also make the case that 2008 didn't have the same conditions we have now so it's not the same either.   We have Fed rate hikes and a war with different dynamics than the 2008 house market fiasco imploding. You can even make the case that it's really the extra liquidity being switched off by the Fed that's causing an expected correction as things are going back to normal without that extra gift to the stock market.   In either case a single chart isn't gonna tell you any of that.   Much less only a few vague data points.   You need a lot more out of a chart before jumping to conclusions. Charts are very easy to use to confirm a bias. Especially without enough context. Especially without enough data.  There's also a little more than charts. There's plenty of other data out there that won't give you those misleading impressions on just looks. There's also statistical analysis which is much more useful just not as pretty.   The latest example  ampx200B  formatpjpgampautowebpampsd89b93fdeb6f5f38cb1bfc66631ef450edcef245  This is my latest favorite chart that can easily create confirmation bias. There's very little context much less perspective.    And of course based on where we are in the time line it makes it look more dramatic than it actually is. If you move back the timeline to 2008 it would also look like an exponential Goliath dwarfing everything else.   This is not to say the chart is incorrect.  The data is correct. But it's easy to make it a little misleading and overdramatize a narrative. Especially for people who don't have enough of the context. Or other data to compare.","neutral"
"Another beautiful day","","positive"
"UGA Covered Put Strategy","Degenerates of WSB I need advice.  Gas prices cannot sustain for much longer OPEC has to step in or the federal govt has to access reserves. My idea is to buy a long put on UGA with a strike of about $5055 expiring in midJune or midJuly and cover it with shares of UGA in order to realize nearterm gains. I figure this could somewhat cover my position if the prices continue to go up. I'm super unsure if this will work let me know if this will in fact secure tendies or not.","neutral"
"Ok this is funny. It started as a Twitter thing to do the opposite of whatever Jim Cramer says. Now the news media is making fun of him also.","","negative"
"Europes Green Deal requires massive amounts of battery metals  study","gtA recent study by KU Leuven University shows that meeting the European Unions Green Deal goal of climate neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and 7 to 26 times the amount of rare earth metals compared to Europes current use.   gtAccording to the paper the energy transition will also require 30 more aluminum than what is employed today in the continent as well as 35 more copper 45 more silicon 100 more nickel and 330 more cobalt. All these metals are considered essential for producing electric vehicles and batteries renewable wind solar and hydrogen energy technologies as well as the grid infrastructure needed to achieve climate neutrality.   ...   ","neutral"
"There will be no giant crash and you are all retarded.","Title.   Do you think everyone was talking about a giant immense crash incoming in 2006 No. There were few who saw it and they made fucking movies about those who did. Now Im not a permabull fuckboy. I just see post after post after post about how the market is fucked were all fucked. And youre right. However the problem is inflation. You think those Fed fucks wouldnt love to print USD constantly and keep interest rates at 0 The only reason they are raising rates is because they know how much worse of an enemy inflation is not just to you bud to them.  With increases in competition from the Digital Yuan they cant fuck this up and have the world lose faith in the US Dollar. That is their number one priority right now.   TLDR Warren buffet is out here buying up shares and all you retards are losing money to inflation and will never own a home.","negative"
"Redbox","What's going on with Redbox I barely seen anyone on here talking about this  right now I seen one post earlier last week I bought in while it was still in the $2 range . Volume has been over 100 million daily and this thing is taking off. It was haulted briefly and now running up again. Now $9","positive"
"options on commodities has anyone checked them out you might want to lol","considering biden etc are calling food shortages...right before all these food processing plants burn down lol...  its clear that commodity prices sh rise...food and fuel.  ex heating oil prices typically rally into winter...just like this last season  the nice thing about commodities is that whole layer of activity you have with a stock like fundamentals earnings etc is gone. makes things a lot simpler.   give commodities a look. avoid precious metals entirely. right now corn beans wheat lean hogs live cattle natty gas heating oil have printed new highs. everything you would expect if there were incoming shortages.  hope you make a pile","negative"
"Buying UVXY Puts Can Make You A Millionaire Potentially Billionaire","Yes you read the title right you weetards. Are you tired of losing money trying to time the market top Do you endlessley lose money buying UVXY shares or UVXY call options  I have a simple solution even weetards can understand DO THE OPPOSITE Just look at UVXY's chart eternal downtrend. Thus buying puts on UVXY is a high probability win on any given dayweekmonth.  Given that Powell is here to pump us up on Wednesday UVXY puts expiring 562022 should be free money as there is no way Powell doesn't pump up the stocks for us.  Even the brokers are doing this one trick. They short volatility endlessly while we scramble to buy puts any 0.1 red day. Shorting UVXY is THE money printer.  UVXY is on average 5 any given day. UVXY also just spiked so there is much room to fall and given UVXY does reverse splits UVXY has no floor It can fall infinitely Short UVXY buy UVXY puts today  Position 10 UVXY $15 Put 562022","neutral"
"Motley Fool StockPick Hacker Charged With Securities Fraud","Motley Fool StockPick Hacker Charged With Securities Fraud  An Idaho man who allegedly managed to access stock picks by personal finance website Motley Fool before publication and made millions of dollars trading on the information has been charged with securities fraud.  David Stone 36 was charged Tuesday by federal prosecutors in Manhattan over trades placed between 2020 and 2022. The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a tandem civil complaint against Stone that also named a friend John D. Robson as complicit in the scheme. The SEC identified the investment advisory service from which the stock picks were stolen as Motley Fool.  The SEC said Stone made more than $3.9 million using the tactic and Robson made $3 million. Stone was arrested Monday and will have his first appearance in federal court in Oregon today federal prosecutors said. Robson also an Idaho resident has not been charged in the criminal case.  Defense attorney information for Stone was not immediately available. The Motley Fool did not immediately respond to a request for comment.  ","neutral"
"Not bad for an unhoused degenerate living in a halfway house.","","positive"
"Deep ITM Covered Calls on ZIM","With a stock like ZIM or really any stock in a cyclical sector where the the stock is at a heightened state due to macroeconomic factors that cause the stock to payout a high dividend what are the drawbacks to selling a deep itm covered call LEAP The way I see it as long as you put the strike low enough that the stock doesn't fall beneath it you basically break even on buying and selling the stock and collecting premium and then you just get to collect the dividends.  Essentially what I am asking is wouldn't selling a deep itm call protect you from the downside risk of stock dropping once the macroeconomic factors end while still allowing you to collect the dividend. Am I missing something obvious","positive"
"Plug Power and the hydrogen revolution","I was surprised at the end of last week when in the chats premarket someone said H2 is scam. I really invite you guys to do your own DD hydrogen is the only way we don't go extinct. There are multiple reasons why we can't rely in batteries hydrogen is a much better form of energy storage and it will substitute first diesel and finally gasoline. The time to invest is now. This is from today's SEC filling Form DEF 14A  filed by Plug Power Inc     The Companys three year goal is to achieve a stock price of $100share or more by 2024 and the pricevesting hurdles are intended to drive that performance. To achieve this goal our CEO and the management team would have to more than triple Plug Powers market cap to grow Plug Power to an almost $60 billion company over the next threeyear period","positive"
"CHEGG.the soon to be Penny Stock","Q1 2022 Highlights  Total Net Revenues of $202.2 million an increase of 2 yearoveryear  Chegg Services Revenues grew 14 yearoveryear to $184.8 million or 91 of total net revenues compared to 82 in Q1 2021  Net Income was $5.7 million  It has a 3B market cap to go along with that amazing 2 growth.  This is worth $5 a share max.    Position  2 X 20P 56  Just took a small position because I didnt care enough to do a bunch of research before earnings.  Looks like they will print.","positive"
"SP 500 Macro and Projected FOMC Meeting Outcomes","Although the SP index today showed what appeared to be a reflex rally we are only 1 of 2 days done with the FOMC meeting. By 54 theres a chance the fed reserve will keep a consistent rate of 0.50basispoint all the way through July 2023 for a total of 350 points to fight their conceived notion of inflation. In other words well probably rally through May after tomorrow since the markets already priced in these rate hikes.   However the fed reserves beige book recent release indicates their acknowledgement of strong ongoing inflationary pressures. Further Overall Economic Activity was vague in outlook due to negative geopolitical events Labor Markets showing slowness in both filling vacancies and wage increase. It is safe to assume that none of these areas improved over the last month. With that said it only makes sense for them to uptheante to be truly hawkish in fighting inflation.   Will they do the right thing tomorrow and announce an adjusted rate due to continued unforeseen circumstances I dont think they will. But if they did it will shock the markets and send SPY back down to 400. Why Theres a baby gap there with unfilled orders  Check dailyweekly SPY or SPX charts on 452021. Buffett confirmed markets are exclusively on algos and algorithms are designed to be efficient. So you can bet your ass it will fill that gap if a new rate is announced. I also want to note that BofAs corp strategist did make a remark on the SPX selling off if it dips below $4000. From a technical perspective if you look at the SPY ETF the 100 SMA is at $403.17 on the weekly and breaking that will likely send it down towards the 200 SMA $346.17. Youll also notice that the 20 SMA just crossed under the 50 SMA as well.   ampx200B  SPY gapformatpngampautowebpamps306f149d9ae89656fab2cda24313eb847d9c1be1  SPX gapformatpngampautowebpamps5183a56b4ba3ec8015bdeb9a91ba0b87b0a196f3  To reinforce this reasoning there was this pattern I learned about during the covid crisis. I recently used it to cross check the events noted above to see if VIX futures are in Contango or Backwardation What is Contango and Backwardation It is indeed in backwardation and has been for almost two weeks. Heres how I spotted it  ampx200B  VXformatpngampautowebpampse998855919675e471e5b8801cd1ec80d285ca142  All known VX products are showing contracts closer to expiration at a higher price than those expiring further out.   ampx200B  formatpngampautowebpamps8a0899d0dfa150635845b15d6cf50c27c86ac120  Closing remarks  Now below is the overall look for SPY on the monthly. I'm providing this to give you a holistic view of the SampP 500. I know there are some folks here against overlaying previous crashes on a theoretical  impending one so I'll spare them that at least. Spy 500 amirite  formatpngampautowebpamps1589072852f2f5b39edb0bd0635a4e27c26686b5  Positions I'm fucking bullish  Spy Calls just because...","positive"
"Tesla will not deliver Musk's 60 delivery growth in 2022","Musk pointed to a 60 increase in deliveries in 2022 in Tesla's 1Q earnings call.    Analysts dropped delivery and revenue forecasts on the runin so Tesla as usual best expectations  seriously one wonders what these analysts are looking at when it came to revenues and costs.  At 310K deliveries in 1Q Musk's call of 1.5 million deliveries for 2022 was a stretch after flat deliveries in 1Q from 309K in 4Q.    Shanghai production has been halted for a month now.  Whilst Xpeng has not been it and other Chinese automakers have been seriously effected by lock downs    Tesla investors have been a little too distracted by Twitter lately.  The underlying business is not going to hit 1.5m deliveries.  It may even struggle for 50 delivery growth given China.  Xpeng Nio and Li were all expanding deliveries far faster and have been hit big time by the lockdown.    The Tesla share price as usual seems to be missing reality in this case of serious Chinese production shortcomings that no fledgling German factory is going to replace.","negative"
"The mouse will make me money or I will eat mouses for a while","","positive"
"Update 2008 wants its spy chart back. And it's Sons of Anarchy DVD set.","Well shit.  Alright. For anyone left standing I'm here to serve as a target for all of your market frustrations.  This is an update to this post which was an update to this post  I posted this shit half jokingly. Seems like the joke is over.  Don't lose all your money this month. Legit discount stocks are coming your way. All major index charts look like dog shit. So does EEM HYG and GLD. They're leading indicators a lot of the time.  No. They look like a dog took a shit ate it and then threw up.  For anyone who is going to comment So. Shut your face and buy puts where your mouth is. I'm invested in SQQQ instead and a bunch of shorts. More liquidity.  Anyone still want to hit that beArS r Fukt bullshit I love you.","negative"
"Wall Street sees greater risk of default by major banks","The cost to insure bonds of Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley  and Citigroup  against default hit twoyear highs on Monday on growing fears the U.S. Federal Reserves aggressive moves to tame inflation might tip the economy into recession.   Source  ","neutral"
"Red runs in my family heres my dads position for proof.","","negative"
"Analysis of AirBnb","As we all know AirBnb reports earnings today. Here's some interesting tidbits from their Q4 shareholder letter  gt Thanks to our adaptability and relentless innovation Airbnb has rebounded quickly from the impacts of the pandemic and returned to strong growth unlike many others in travel.  I believe the downcast state of ABNB today is due to Expedia EXPE losing 13. Which was likely affected by Hilton's weak guidance.   gt CEO Brian Chesky recently announced that hell also be living on Airbnb staying in a different town or city every couple of weeks.  I like a CEO that goes all in. This guy hasn't sold his shares at all.   gt As such for the first time since the pandemic began we expect Q1 2022 Nights and Experiences Booked to significantly exceed Q1 2019 levels which we believe will result in our strongest quarterly Nights and Experiences Booked on record.  Guidance is exceptionally bullish. Travel stocks are down. CEO goes all in. I can personally confirm that the cost of an AirBnb is similar to that of a hotel. There used to be a proliferation of $80 dollar nights in 2019 those are now all gone. $120 seems to be the average now.   I think there is something here worth considering. AirBnb knows that they are better than the competition. The market is selling ABNB along with other travel. There is a decent gap in expectation and price that is worth considering here.  Risks   ABNB is a tech stock that for some reason has not gone 80.   ABNB is really not that much different from hotels so results will be similar to what has been reported.   ABNB is priced too high. PS and PE are not justifiable.   ABNB has issued guidance that is too high. Expectations will meet and not surpass.   ABNB is subject to laws and regulations and is treated like a hotel therefore it does not have an advantage.   ABNB has safety issues that can keep guests away or lead to lawsuits.   Positions 5x 152.5c 513 9x 150c 513","negative"
"US 10year Treasury yield reaches 3 for first time since 2018","The yield on the government bond has profound effects on the economy feeding into home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies. The higher yield which rises when bond prices fall is tightening financial conditions after two years of the coronavirus pandemic.  ","neutral"
"Shanghai lockdown  China stocks are on the rise since announcement","Just stating hopefully the obvious that after current virus and fears spread to the West we are looking for a repeat of 2020 maybe worse  Both $JD and $BABA saw a decent jump from 52W ATL. Watching my $WISH position to explode May 5th after earnings.   The timing of this seems hardly a coincidence. The West will most likely blow the virus off until its too late ... again.   ampx200B  For stonks like $WISH this is a major opportunity.   Wish has a new and experienced management team they introduced Video clips still have a cool $Billion in the bank and the web traffic maintained since December  even had a significant uptick in France where it was banned  and with the current ad burn they have enough cash to last for at least two years.  Tits are freaking jacked","positive"
"Partially filled loyalty cards from the local nugget shop are the best inflation hedge I can think of.","Fill the card 56 of the way to a free order of nuggets.  Wait 6 months for nuggets to reach $15Korder.  Get that last stamp and profit.","positive"
"More of Europe's crude supply is coming from deep in the heart of Texas","HOUSTON April 29 Reuters  U.S. crude exports to Europe climbed in March and April as buyers across the Atlantic snapped up the country's light sweet grades to offset the expected loss of Russian oil according to shipping data traders and analysts.  As the European Union weighs an oil embargo on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine U.S. exporters are ramping up shipments of U.S. light crude to Europe helped by Washington's decision to release 180 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is flooding the domestic market.  U.S. crude exports bound for Europe are close to 1.5 million barrels per day bpd so far in April the highest in two years and one of the strongest months on record said Matt Smith lead oil analyst for the Americas at data provider Kpler. Most cargoes are carrying light sweet grades he added headed to European destinations including Spain the United Kingdom Denmark and Italy.  As flows have increased to Europe flows bound for Asia Latin America and Canada have dipped this month Smith said.  Price spreads making some U.S. light grades relatively cheaper have also pushed opportunistic purchases by European refiners another source said.  British refineries which plan to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year last month bought the largest volume of U.S. crude in twoandahalf years Eikon data showed.  Most cargoes were U.S. light sweet oil with at least a quarter delivering Midland crude according to the U.S. Customs data.  Spain is set to import a record 7 million barrels of U.S. crude in April according to cargo tracking data after a peak in March of nearly 6 million barrels discharged for refiners including Repsol REP.MC Cepsa CPF.GQ and BP BP.L.  BP did not reply to a request for comment. Cepsa and Repsol declined to comment on individual cargoes or trade flows.  ","neutral"
"$ASTS receives FCC license for BlueWalker 3 Satellite","  gt  AST SpaceMobile Inc. AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ ASTS the company building the first and only spacebased cellular broadband network designed to be accessible directly by standard mobile phones today announced it has received an experimental license from the Federal Communications Commission FCC supporting its U.S.based testing of the BlueWalker 3 satellite. gt  gt The license covers BlueWalker 3 spacetoground testing in the United States using 3GPP lowband cellular frequencies and QVband frequencies subject to certain restrictions. gt  gt The authorization comes as the company prepares for the planned summer 2022 launch of BlueWalker 3 its test satellite with an aperture of 693 square feet that is designed to communicate directly with cell phones via 3GPP standard frequencies. gt  gt We appreciate the diligent support of the FCC in providing the experimental license for our upcoming satellite launch said AST SpaceMobile Founder Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan. Together with other testing around the world this license will enable us to conduct some of our most important testing here at home in the United States. gt  gt AST SpaceMobile continues to pursue additional authorizations with the FCC related to its planned constellation of BlueBird satellites. gt  gt AST SpaceMobile's mission is to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by today's five billion mobile subscribers moving in and out of coverage zones and bring cellular broadband to approximately half of the world's population who remain unconnected. Partners in this effort are leading global wireless infrastructure companies including Rakuten Mobile Vodafone and American Tower.   I thought the few space apes that weren't wiped out during the past year might appreciate an update for ASTS. Now that they can freely test their upcoming test satellite this summer it's looking more and more likely that the company will be able to deliver on their promise of providing 5G anywhere on the planet.  Needless to say when they start offering service by next year2024 shit will be printing money. Will add more on the next dip NFA.   Disclosure 40k CAD in ASTS warrants.","negative"
"Its GME loss porn season. Until some gains hit you know where you can find me Behind a certain dumpster","","negative"
"Elon has told investors he plans to possibly take twitter public again in a few years","Elon Musk has told investors that he plans to take Twitter public again within a few years stating that it could be done within three three years of his acquisition.   ","neutral"