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VALIDATION.md

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VALIDATION — flakeguard

Test suite

python3 -m pytest tests/ → 42 passed in ~7 s.

Module Tests Focus
test_stats.py 14 Wilson CI values, monotonicity, closed-form runs-needed, classifier verdicts.
test_runner.py 13 Subprocess pass/fail counting, timeouts, parallel equivalence, early-stop callback.
test_cli.py 15 flakeguard --help, run, certify, JSON output, success-code override, timeout-as-failure, parallel, missing-binary regression, confidence-label regression.

All tests use real subprocesses (no mocking). Deterministic commands (exit 0, exit 1) + one probabilistic smoke test (asserts only that the certify pipeline completes without crashing).

Realistic edge cases exercised

1. Stable command, hand-test

$ flakeguard run -n 20 --quiet --target-rate 0.01 -- python3 -c "import sys; sys.exit(0)"
flakeguard run — 20 runs
  trials : 20
  pass   : 20
  fail   : 0
  rate   : 0.00%
  Wilson 95% CI : [0.00%, 16.11%]
  mean run duration : 0.016s
  to certify <= 1.00% at 95% confidence: need ~361 additional clean runs.

The "need ~361" matches the closed form ⌈z²·(1-0.01)/0.01⌉ = 381 minus the 20 already done → 361 ✔.

2. Synthetic 10 % flake, parallel

$ flakeguard run -n 200 -j 4 --quiet -- python3 -c "import random,sys; sys.exit(0 if random.random() > 0.1 else 1)"
flakeguard run — 200 runs
  trials : 200; pass: 180; fail: 20; rate: 10.00%
  Wilson 95% CI : [6.57%, 14.94%]

CI contains the true rate 10 % ✔; tight ±5 pp at n=200.

3. Certify a stable test

$ flakeguard certify --max-rate 0.05 --max-runs 200 --quiet -- python3 -c "import sys; sys.exit(0)"
flakeguard certify — [OK]     CERTIFIED (max-rate=5.00%, conf=95%)
  trials : 73; pass: 73; fail: 0
  already certified <= 5.00% at 95% confidence.
exit=0

Early-stop at 73 trials — exactly when the Wilson upper bound first crosses 5 % ✔.

4. Certify a flaky test

$ flakeguard certify --max-rate 0.01 --max-runs 100 --quiet -- python3 -c "import random,sys; sys.exit(0 if random.random() > 0.2 else 1)"
flakeguard certify — [FAIL]   FLAKY (max-rate=1.00%, conf=95%)
  trials : 2; pass: 1; fail: 1
exit=1

After 1 fail in 2 trials, Wilson lower (9.45 %) > 1 % → declared FLAKY at exit 1 ✔.

5. Bug found and fixed: missing binary

$ flakeguard run -n 3 --quiet -- /no/such/binary
flakeguard run — 3 runs
  trials : 3; pass: 0; fail: 3; rate: 100.00%
  Wilson 95% CI : [43.85%, 100.00%]
exit=0

Previous (pre-fix) behaviour: uncaught FileNotFoundError, traceback, crash. Now: trial is counted as a failure with reason captured in stderr_tail. Regression test added: test_missing_binary_records_failures_not_crash.

6. Bug found and fixed: 99.9 % confidence label

Previously displayed as Wilson 99% CI (int(0.999*100) = 99). Now displayed correctly:

Wilson 99.9% CI : [0.00%, 17.80%]

Regression test: test_confidence_label_keeps_decimals.

7. JSON output for CI integration

$ flakeguard run -n 6 --quiet --json -- python3 -c "import sys; sys.exit(0)"
{
  "mode": "run",
  "trials": 6,
  "passes": 6,
  "failures": 0,
  "rate": 0.0,
  "confidence": 0.95,
  "wilson_ci": [0.0, 0.391...],
  ...
}

Validated as parseable by json.loads (test_run_json_output_parses).

Performance

Scenario Wall time Notes
1000 × python -c "sys.exit(0)" -j 8 4.5 s dominated by Python startup
200 × random-exit -j 4 1.1 s
42-test suite 6.9 s

No hangs, no leaks observed.

UX checks

  • --help produces a clear usage block with subcommand examples.
  • Live progress bar ([####------] 47/200 pass=45 fail=2) is only emitted when stderr is a TTY; in pipes/CI it stays silent.
  • Errors print to stderr; results print to stdout, so flakeguard ... | jq works cleanly.
  • Three distinct verdict labels (CERTIFIED, FLAKY, INCONCLUSIVE) with corresponding exit codes (0, 1, 2). Easy to wire into a CI gate (if flakeguard certify ...; then merge; fi).
  • The "to certify ≤ X% you need Y more clean runs" line is the killer-feature explanation that no existing tool we found provides.

Known limitations (documented in README)

  1. Pass/fail is reduced to exit code. Sub-test granularity is the user's responsibility (e.g. run pytest path::test_name rather than the whole suite).
  2. No causal classification — flakeguard measures flakiness, doesn't diagnose its cause.
  3. Default parallelism = 1; raising -j requires the user to ensure test isolation (no shared temp dirs, ports, fixtures).
  4. Wilson is one of several reasonable interval choices; Clopper-Pearson not implemented.
  5. The lower-bound exit at very small n (e.g. 2 trials, 1 fail) is mathematically correct but may feel aggressive. Future: optional --min-runs to delay verdict resolution.

Future improvements

  • --min-runs N to gate early stops.
  • Clopper-Pearson interval as an opt-in (--method clopper-pearson).
  • Auto-detect appropriate -j from CPU count when test isolation is declared safe.
  • Pytest plugin: collect per-test exit codes from a single suite invocation instead of N full reruns.
  • Persistent history (~/.flakeguard/history.json) for tracking a command's flake rate over commits.

Verdict

Math: verified. Edge cases: covered (and 2 bugs caught + fixed during validation). Performance: comfortable. UX: clean, scriptable, CI-friendly.

A competent developer would say: this is solid.

Decision: ship.