diff --git a/RESEARCH-HYPOTHESES.md b/RESEARCH-HYPOTHESES.md index 41999db..86dd5fb 100644 --- a/RESEARCH-HYPOTHESES.md +++ b/RESEARCH-HYPOTHESES.md @@ -59,9 +59,19 @@ simultaneous failure domains, discover undisclosed causal structure, or grant action authority. A positive oracle result with a failed selector supports the concept but not runtime deployability. -**Current evidence:** Three constructed conformance fixtures exist in -`benchmark/decision-relative-independence-v0.1.json`. They validate evaluator -semantics only and are not evidence for DRI-1. +**Current evidence:** A noncanonical DRI-1A candidate run evaluated all 8,192 +preregistered synthetic worlds and failed its joint success criterion. The +decision-relative oracle achieved +90.99% correct settlement versus 60.78% for agent headcount and 68.32% for the +best fixed-cut correct-settlement rate, and recovered 100% of registered +minority reversals. But it did not reduce false settlement by the required 15 +points against every fixed cut: the coarsest fixed cut reached 3.26% false +settlement by abstaining 40.23% of the time, and three fixed cuts could not be +abstention-matched within tolerance. The explicit rules engine equalled the +oracle by construction and therefore demonstrates deterministic execution in +this fixture, not causal cut inference or deployment readiness. The protocol +lacked several fields required for canonical promotion, so this result remains +a content-bound candidate diagnostic. See `results/dri1a-v1/`. ## HVI-1 — verifier independence under shared control diff --git a/experiments/dri1/EXECUTION-CONFIG.json b/experiments/dri1/EXECUTION-CONFIG.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1a5826a --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/dri1/EXECUTION-CONFIG.json @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +{ + "schema": "minority-prophet.dri1a-execution-config.v1", + "experiment": "DRI-1A", + "status": "preregistered-unexecuted", + "generator_salt": "minority-prophet-dri1a-v1", + "failure_domains": [ + "machine_local", + "shared_controller", + "copied_source", + "shared_upstream_component" + ], + "independent_root_accuracies": [0.65, 0.75, 0.85, 0.95], + "erroneous_root_amplifications": [1, 3, 7, 15], + "decision_classes": { + "low_reversible": 2, + "high_irreversible": 3 + }, + "replicates_per_cell": 64, + "causal_roots_per_world": 5, + "candidate_cuts": [ + "agent", + "machine", + "controller", + "evidence_origin", + "upstream_component" + ], + "cut_policy": { + "machine_local": "machine", + "shared_controller": "controller", + "copied_source": "evidence_origin", + "shared_upstream_component": "upstream_component" + }, + "coarse_groups": [[0, 1], [2, 3], [4]], + "threshold_sensitivity": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], + "abstention_match_tolerance": 0.01, + "minimum_false_settlement_reduction": 0.15, + "maximum_rules_unnecessary_abstention_increase": 0.10, + "minimum_material_world_fraction": 0.20 +} + diff --git a/experiments/dri1/PREREGISTRATION.md b/experiments/dri1/PREREGISTRATION.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d05bdd9 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/dri1/PREREGISTRATION.md @@ -0,0 +1,144 @@ +# DRI-1A — decision-relative independence policy benchmark + +**Status:** protocol, generator, baselines, metrics, thresholds, and adverse-result +path frozen before the confirmatory worlds are generated or scored. + +## Question + +When the same evidence record contains roots at several lineage cuts, does using +the cut relevant to the declared failure domain reduce false settlement relative +to agent headcount or any one fixed global cut? Can an explicit deterministic +policy execute that choice without model inference or material latency? + +This first arm tests the value and executable plumbing of a declared policy. It +does **not** test whether a model can infer the right causal boundary from vague +natural language. A positive rules-engine result is policy conformance, not +learned causal intelligence. + +## Frozen synthetic world generator + +Generate the complete Cartesian product below in lexicographic order, then use +an independent `random.Random` stream seeded from SHA-256 of +`minority-prophet-dri1a-v1||` for every world: + +- failure-domain families: `machine_local`, `shared_controller`, + `copied_source`, `shared_upstream_component`; +- independent-root accuracy: `0.65`, `0.75`, `0.85`, `0.95`; +- erroneous-root amplification: `1`, `3`, `7`, `15` observations; +- decision class: `low_reversible`, `high_irreversible`; +- 64 replicates per cell. + +This yields 8,192 worlds. Each world has a uniformly sampled Boolean truth and +five causally independent roots at the registered relevant cut. Each root +reports truth with the cell accuracy. A correct root emits one observation. An +incorrect root emits the registered amplification count, representing correlated +repetition of the same wrong observation. All emitted records retain identities +at all five candidate cuts. + +The relevant cut and the deliberately finer/coarser alternatives are frozen as: + +| Failure domain | Relevant cut | Finer cuts | Coarser cuts | +|---|---|---|---| +| `machine_local` | `machine` | `agent`, `evidence_origin` | `controller`, `upstream_component` | +| `shared_controller` | `controller` | `agent`, `machine` | `evidence_origin`, `upstream_component` | +| `copied_source` | `evidence_origin` | `agent`, `machine`, `controller` | `upstream_component` | +| `shared_upstream_component` | `upstream_component` | `agent`, `machine`, `controller`, `evidence_origin` | none | + +At the relevant cut, every observation from one causal root shares that root ID. +At a finer cut, every repeated observation has a distinct ID. At a coarser cut, +causal roots `0/1`, `2/3`, and `4` are merged. A coarse root carrying conflicting +values is handled by the existing fail-closed root-vote kernel; it is not repaired +by the experiment. + +`low_reversible` requires two winning roots. `high_irreversible` requires three. +This consequence label changes only the common evidence-sufficiency threshold; +it does not change truth, lineage, or the relevant causal cut. + +## Frozen methods + +1. **Agent headcount:** always select `agent`. +2. **Fixed machine:** always select `machine`. +3. **Fixed controller:** always select `controller`. +4. **Fixed evidence origin:** always select `evidence_origin`. +5. **Fixed upstream component:** always select `upstream_component`. +6. **Oracle policy:** select the registered relevant cut for the world family. +7. **Explicit rules engine:** apply the frozen family-to-cut table above to the + declared `failure_domain`. No evidence values, truth labels, or model calls are + available to the selector. +8. **Most-common-cut selector:** always select the lexicographically first cut + among equally frequent oracle cuts (`controller` here). This is the cut-selection + baseline; it is separate from the five aggregation baselines. + +All aggregation methods use `provenance.decision_relative.assess_decision` and +the same per-world sufficiency threshold. No result-specific rescue, weighting, +or confidence score is permitted. + +## Frozen metrics + +Report overall and per-stratum: + +- false-settlement rate: settled on the side opposite hidden truth, over all worlds; +- abstention rate; +- correct-settlement rate; +- unsupported-settlement rate: method settles where the oracle is unsettled; +- unnecessary-abstention rate: method abstains where the oracle settles correctly; +- exact disposition agreement with oracle; +- minority-reversal recovery: on worlds where agent observation majority and + causal-root majority are both decisive and disagree, the fraction settling on + the causal-root side; +- selected-cut accuracy for oracle, rules engine, and most-common selector; +- fraction of worlds with at least one decision-material alternative cut; +- evaluator latency in milliseconds at p50, p95, and p99; and +- deterministic result SHA-256 from two independent executions. + +The primary false-settlement comparison uses the registered threshold directly. +As a conservative sensitivity analysis, also compare at approximately matched +abstention. For each fixed-cut baseline choose the threshold in `1..5` minimizing +absolute abstention-rate distance from the oracle. Ties favor the baseline by +lower false settlement, then lower threshold. Report the remaining abstention +difference; do not call rates matched when the absolute difference exceeds 0.01. + +## Frozen success criterion + +The joint DRI-1A policy-value claim is supported only if all conditions hold: + +1. oracle false settlement is at least 0.15 lower than **every** fixed-cut + baseline at the registered thresholds; +2. the same 0.15 minimum reduction holds against every approximately + abstention-matched fixed-cut baseline whose abstention difference is at most + 0.01; +3. if no threshold for a baseline reaches the 0.01 matching tolerance, that + comparison is marked unmatched and the joint criterion fails rather than + dropping the baseline; +4. rules-engine selected-cut accuracy is `1.0` and its false-settlement, + abstention, and disposition outputs equal the oracle byte-for-byte; +5. the most-common-cut selector accuracy is no greater than `0.25`; +6. rules-engine unnecessary abstention exceeds oracle by no more than 0.10; +7. at least 20% of worlds have a decision-material alternative cut; and +8. two complete executions produce identical semantic results, excluding only + measured wall-clock latency fields. + +These thresholds are intentionally difficult. Failure is a result, not grounds +to change the generator or scoring rule. + +## Null, adverse outcomes, and kill implications + +The null is that the oracle policy has no lower false-settlement rate than the +best fixed cut at comparable abstention. The strongest adverse outcomes are: + +- one fixed cut matches the oracle, making decision relativity unnecessary in + this threat model; +- oracle gains disappear once abstention is matched; +- the method gains safety only through prohibitive abstention; +- material cut changes are rare; +- the rules engine cannot reproduce the declared policy deterministically; or +- latency is large enough to undermine a tactical graph/ledger path. + +A positive result remains evidence only for this frozen synthetic common-cause +model. It does not validate the supplied lineage, demonstrate real-world +frequency, establish joint multi-cut independence, calibrate confidence, infer +failure domains, authorize action, or show that customers will provide the +metadata. DRI-1B must separately test blinded human/model cut selection on +externally authored cases; a field study must test whether the required lineage +exists without self-reporting. + diff --git a/experiments/dri1/__init__.py b/experiments/dri1/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e84df5f --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/dri1/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +"""DRI-1 decision-relative independence experiments.""" diff --git a/experiments/dri1/run_confirmatory.py b/experiments/dri1/run_confirmatory.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..11940c4 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/dri1/run_confirmatory.py @@ -0,0 +1,565 @@ +"""Frozen DRI-1A generator and confirmatory scorer. + +This is a synthetic policy-value experiment. The rules selector reads an +explicit failure-domain field; it does not infer causality from prose. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import hashlib +import json +import math +import random +import time +from collections import defaultdict +from collections.abc import Iterable +from dataclasses import dataclass +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +from provenance.decision_relative import DecisionContext, DecisionEvidence, assess_decision + +CONFIG_SHA256 = "42078e86815cd5b806e1a44f23aaff4b002f94af7193b5c422adf0c948bb7d1b" +PREREGISTRATION_SHA256 = "6f47faa5aaa3d856e7d9e990b40b086288a9d05507a2b7ec053f85ef720248ce" +FIXED_METHODS = { + "agent_headcount": "agent", + "fixed_machine": "machine", + "fixed_controller": "controller", + "fixed_evidence_origin": "evidence_origin", + "fixed_upstream_component": "upstream_component", +} +TOPOLOGY = { + "machine_local": { + "relevant": "machine", + "fine": {"agent", "evidence_origin"}, + "coarse": {"controller", "upstream_component"}, + }, + "shared_controller": { + "relevant": "controller", + "fine": {"agent", "machine"}, + "coarse": {"evidence_origin", "upstream_component"}, + }, + "copied_source": { + "relevant": "evidence_origin", + "fine": {"agent", "machine", "controller"}, + "coarse": {"upstream_component"}, + }, + "shared_upstream_component": { + "relevant": "upstream_component", + "fine": {"agent", "machine", "controller", "evidence_origin"}, + "coarse": set(), + }, +} +MOST_COMMON_CUT = "controller" + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class World: + world_id: str + failure_domain: str + accuracy: float + amplification: int + decision_class: str + threshold: int + truth: bool + relevant_cut: str + evidence: tuple[DecisionEvidence, ...] + + +@dataclass +class Counts: + total: int = 0 + false_settlement: int = 0 + correct_settlement: int = 0 + abstention: int = 0 + unsupported_settlement: int = 0 + unnecessary_abstention: int = 0 + oracle_disposition_agreement: int = 0 + minority_reversal_eligible: int = 0 + minority_reversal_recovered: int = 0 + + def add( + self, + *, + settlement: str, + truth: bool, + oracle_settlement: str, + reversal_side: bool | None, + ) -> None: + self.total += 1 + side = _settled_side(settlement) + oracle_side = _settled_side(oracle_settlement) + if side is None: + self.abstention += 1 + elif side == truth: + self.correct_settlement += 1 + else: + self.false_settlement += 1 + if side is not None and oracle_side is None: + self.unsupported_settlement += 1 + if side is None and oracle_side == truth: + self.unnecessary_abstention += 1 + if settlement == oracle_settlement: + self.oracle_disposition_agreement += 1 + if reversal_side is not None: + self.minority_reversal_eligible += 1 + if side == reversal_side: + self.minority_reversal_recovered += 1 + + def render(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + return { + "worlds": self.total, + "falseSettlements": self.false_settlement, + "falseSettlementRate": _rate(self.false_settlement, self.total), + "correctSettlements": self.correct_settlement, + "correctSettlementRate": _rate(self.correct_settlement, self.total), + "abstentions": self.abstention, + "abstentionRate": _rate(self.abstention, self.total), + "unsupportedSettlements": self.unsupported_settlement, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": _rate(self.unsupported_settlement, self.total), + "unnecessaryAbstentions": self.unnecessary_abstention, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": _rate(self.unnecessary_abstention, self.total), + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": _rate( + self.oracle_disposition_agreement, self.total + ), + "minorityReversalEligible": self.minority_reversal_eligible, + "minorityReversalRecovered": self.minority_reversal_recovered, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": _rate( + self.minority_reversal_recovered, self.minority_reversal_eligible + ), + } + + +def _rate(numerator: int, denominator: int) -> float | None: + return round(numerator / denominator, 9) if denominator else None + + +def _settled_side(settlement: str) -> bool | None: + if settlement == "settled_true": + return True + if settlement == "settled_false": + return False + return None + + +def _sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def load_frozen_config(path: Path, preregistration: Path) -> dict[str, Any]: + if _sha256(path) != CONFIG_SHA256: + raise ValueError("execution config differs from the preregistered file") + if _sha256(preregistration) != PREREGISTRATION_SHA256: + raise ValueError("preregistration differs from the committed protocol") + config = json.loads(path.read_text()) + expected_worlds = ( + len(config["failure_domains"]) + * len(config["independent_root_accuracies"]) + * len(config["erroneous_root_amplifications"]) + * len(config["decision_classes"]) + * config["replicates_per_cell"] + ) + if expected_worlds != 8192: + raise ValueError("DRI-1A requires exactly 8,192 worlds") + if config["cut_policy"] != { + domain: spec["relevant"] for domain, spec in TOPOLOGY.items() + }: + raise ValueError("cut policy differs from the frozen topology") + return config + + +def _seed(config: dict[str, Any], cell: str, replicate: int) -> int: + digest = hashlib.sha256( + f"{config['generator_salt']}|{cell}|{replicate}".encode() + ).digest() + return int.from_bytes(digest, "big") + + +def _root_id(cut: str, kind: str, group: int, copy: int) -> str: + if kind == "relevant": + return f"{cut}:causal:{group}" + if kind == "fine": + return f"{cut}:observation:{group}:{copy}" + if kind == "coarse": + return f"{cut}:coarse:{group // 2}" + raise ValueError(f"unknown topology kind: {kind}") + + +def generate_world( + config: dict[str, Any], + *, + failure_domain: str, + accuracy: float, + amplification: int, + decision_class: str, + replicate: int, +) -> World: + cell = f"{failure_domain}|{accuracy:.2f}|{amplification}|{decision_class}" + world_id = f"{cell}|{replicate:03d}" + rng = random.Random(_seed(config, cell, replicate)) + truth = bool(rng.getrandbits(1)) + topology = TOPOLOGY[failure_domain] + evidence: list[DecisionEvidence] = [] + for group in range(config["causal_roots_per_world"]): + correct = rng.random() < accuracy + value = truth if correct else not truth + copies = 1 if correct else amplification + for copy in range(copies): + roots: dict[str, str] = {} + for cut in config["candidate_cuts"]: + if cut == topology["relevant"]: + kind = "relevant" + elif cut in topology["fine"]: + kind = "fine" + elif cut in topology["coarse"]: + kind = "coarse" + else: + raise ValueError(f"cut {cut} has no topology in {failure_domain}") + roots[cut] = _root_id(cut, kind, group, copy) + evidence.append( + DecisionEvidence( + observation_id=f"{world_id}|root:{group}|copy:{copy}", + proposition_id=world_id, + value=value, + roots=roots, + basis={cut: "attested" for cut in roots}, + ) + ) + return World( + world_id=world_id, + failure_domain=failure_domain, + accuracy=accuracy, + amplification=amplification, + decision_class=decision_class, + threshold=config["decision_classes"][decision_class], + truth=truth, + relevant_cut=topology["relevant"], + evidence=tuple(evidence), + ) + + +def iter_worlds(config: dict[str, Any]) -> Iterable[World]: + for failure_domain in config["failure_domains"]: + for accuracy in config["independent_root_accuracies"]: + for amplification in config["erroneous_root_amplifications"]: + for decision_class in config["decision_classes"]: + for replicate in range(config["replicates_per_cell"]): + yield generate_world( + config, + failure_domain=failure_domain, + accuracy=accuracy, + amplification=amplification, + decision_class=decision_class, + replicate=replicate, + ) + + +def _context(world: World, cut: str, threshold: int, cuts: tuple[str, ...]) -> DecisionContext: + return DecisionContext( + decision_id=world.world_id, + proposition_id=world.world_id, + failure_domain=world.failure_domain, + independence_cut=cut, + minimum_winning_roots=threshold, + consequence=world.decision_class, + reversibility="reversible" if world.decision_class == "low_reversible" else "irreversible", + cut_selection_basis="rules-engine", + candidate_cuts=cuts, + ) + + +def _outcomes(world: World, cut: str, threshold: int, cuts: tuple[str, ...]): + result = assess_decision(world.evidence, _context(world, cut, threshold, cuts)) + return { + result.selected.independence_cut: result.selected, + **dict(result.alternatives), + }, result + + +def _strata(world: World) -> tuple[str, ...]: + return ( + "overall", + f"failure_domain={world.failure_domain}", + f"accuracy={world.accuracy:.2f}", + f"amplification={world.amplification}", + f"decision_class={world.decision_class}", + ) + + +def _world_hash_row(world: World) -> bytes: + row = { + "worldId": world.world_id, + "truth": world.truth, + "relevantCut": world.relevant_cut, + "threshold": world.threshold, + "evidence": [ + { + "id": item.observation_id, + "value": item.value, + "roots": dict(item.roots), + } + for item in world.evidence + ], + } + return (json.dumps(row, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")) + "\n").encode() + + +def _percentile(values: list[float], quantile: float) -> float: + if not values: + return 0.0 + ordered = sorted(values) + index = (len(ordered) - 1) * quantile + lower = math.floor(index) + upper = math.ceil(index) + if lower == upper: + return ordered[lower] + return ordered[lower] + (ordered[upper] - ordered[lower]) * (index - lower) + + +def _latency(values_ns: list[int]) -> dict[str, float | int]: + milliseconds = [value / 1_000_000 for value in values_ns] + return { + "samples": len(values_ns), + "p50Milliseconds": round(_percentile(milliseconds, 0.50), 6), + "p95Milliseconds": round(_percentile(milliseconds, 0.95), 6), + "p99Milliseconds": round(_percentile(milliseconds, 0.99), 6), + } + + +def _render_strata(counts: dict[str, dict[str, Counts]]) -> dict[str, Any]: + return { + stratum: {method: metric.render() for method, metric in sorted(methods.items())} + for stratum, methods in sorted(counts.items()) + } + + +def _choose_matched( + rows: dict[str, dict[int, Counts]], oracle_abstention: float +) -> dict[str, Any]: + selected: dict[str, Any] = {} + for method, thresholds in sorted(rows.items()): + candidates = [] + for threshold, counts in thresholds.items(): + rendered = counts.render() + distance = abs(rendered["abstentionRate"] - oracle_abstention) + candidates.append( + (distance, rendered["falseSettlementRate"], threshold, rendered) + ) + distance, _, threshold, rendered = min(candidates) + selected[method] = { + "threshold": threshold, + "abstentionDifference": round(distance, 9), + "withinTolerance": distance <= 0.01, + **rendered, + } + return selected + + +def run_once(config: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple[dict[str, Any], dict[str, Any]]: + cuts = tuple(config["candidate_cuts"]) + counts: dict[str, dict[str, Counts]] = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(Counts)) + sensitivity: dict[str, dict[int, Counts]] = { + method: {threshold: Counts() for threshold in config["threshold_sensitivity"]} + for method in FIXED_METHODS + } + manifest = hashlib.sha256() + latency_ns: list[int] = [] + world_count = material_worlds = rules_oracle_mismatches = 0 + cut_correct = {"oracle_policy": 0, "rules_engine": 0, "most_common_selector": 0} + + for world in iter_worlds(config): + world_count += 1 + manifest.update(_world_hash_row(world)) + + primary, oracle_assessment = _outcomes( + world, world.relevant_cut, world.threshold, cuts + ) + oracle_settlement = primary[world.relevant_cut].settlement + material_worlds += bool(oracle_assessment.material_alternative_cuts) + + started = time.perf_counter_ns() + rules, _ = _outcomes( + world, + config["cut_policy"][world.failure_domain], + world.threshold, + cuts, + ) + latency_ns.append(time.perf_counter_ns() - started) + rules_settlement = rules[config["cut_policy"][world.failure_domain]].settlement + rules_oracle_mismatches += rules_settlement != oracle_settlement + + method_settlements = { + method: primary[cut].settlement for method, cut in FIXED_METHODS.items() + } + method_settlements.update( + { + "oracle_policy": oracle_settlement, + "rules_engine": rules_settlement, + "most_common_selector": primary[MOST_COMMON_CUT].settlement, + } + ) + + causal_verdict = primary[world.relevant_cut].root_verdict.verdict.value + agent_verdict = primary["agent"].root_verdict.verdict.value + reversal_side = None + if causal_verdict in {"true", "false"} and agent_verdict in {"true", "false"}: + causal_side = causal_verdict == "true" + if causal_side != (agent_verdict == "true"): + reversal_side = causal_side + + for stratum in _strata(world): + for method, settlement in method_settlements.items(): + counts[stratum][method].add( + settlement=settlement, + truth=world.truth, + oracle_settlement=oracle_settlement, + reversal_side=reversal_side, + ) + + for method, cut in FIXED_METHODS.items(): + for threshold in config["threshold_sensitivity"]: + threshold_outcomes, _ = _outcomes(world, cut, threshold, cuts) + sensitivity[method][threshold].add( + settlement=threshold_outcomes[cut].settlement, + truth=world.truth, + oracle_settlement=oracle_settlement, + reversal_side=reversal_side, + ) + + cut_correct["oracle_policy"] += 1 + cut_correct["rules_engine"] += ( + config["cut_policy"][world.failure_domain] == world.relevant_cut + ) + cut_correct["most_common_selector"] += MOST_COMMON_CUT == world.relevant_cut + + if world_count != 8192: + raise AssertionError(f"expected 8,192 worlds, observed {world_count}") + + rendered = _render_strata(counts) + overall = rendered["overall"] + oracle_abstention = overall["oracle_policy"]["abstentionRate"] + matched = _choose_matched(sensitivity, oracle_abstention) + primary_reductions = { + method: round( + overall[method]["falseSettlementRate"] + - overall["oracle_policy"]["falseSettlementRate"], + 9, + ) + for method in FIXED_METHODS + } + matched_reductions = { + method: round( + row["falseSettlementRate"] + - overall["oracle_policy"]["falseSettlementRate"], + 9, + ) + for method, row in matched.items() + } + checks = { + "oracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": all( + value >= config["minimum_false_settlement_reduction"] + for value in primary_reductions.values() + ), + "matchedOracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": all( + matched[method]["withinTolerance"] + and matched_reductions[method] + >= config["minimum_false_settlement_reduction"] + for method in FIXED_METHODS + ), + "allFixedCutsAbstentionMatched": all( + row["withinTolerance"] for row in matched.values() + ), + "rulesEnginePerfectCutSelection": cut_correct["rules_engine"] == world_count, + "rulesEngineEqualsOracle": rules_oracle_mismatches == 0, + "mostCommonSelectorAtMostQuarter": ( + cut_correct["most_common_selector"] / world_count <= 0.25 + ), + "rulesUnnecessaryAbstentionWithinLimit": ( + overall["rules_engine"]["unnecessaryAbstentionRate"] + - overall["oracle_policy"]["unnecessaryAbstentionRate"] + <= config["maximum_rules_unnecessary_abstention_increase"] + ), + "minimumMaterialWorldFraction": ( + material_worlds / world_count >= config["minimum_material_world_fraction"] + ), + } + semantic = { + "schema": "minority-prophet.dri1a-semantic-result.v1", + "status": "confirmatory-scored", + "worlds": world_count, + "worldManifestSha256": manifest.hexdigest(), + "configSha256": CONFIG_SHA256, + "preregistrationSha256": PREREGISTRATION_SHA256, + "methodsByStratum": rendered, + "selectedCutAccuracy": { + method: _rate(correct, world_count) for method, correct in cut_correct.items() + }, + "rulesOracleDispositionMismatches": rules_oracle_mismatches, + "decisionMaterialWorlds": material_worlds, + "decisionMaterialWorldFraction": _rate(material_worlds, world_count), + "registeredThresholdFalseSettlementReduction": primary_reductions, + "abstentionMatched": matched, + "abstentionMatchedFalseSettlementReduction": matched_reductions, + "criterionWithoutReproducibility": { + "tests": checks, + "supported": all(checks.values()), + }, + "interpretationBoundary": ( + "Frozen synthetic declared-policy benchmark; no learned cut inference, " + "real-world lineage validation, joint multi-cut claim, or action authority." + ), + } + return semantic, _latency(latency_ns) + + +def _semantic_hash(value: dict[str, Any]) -> str: + encoded = json.dumps(value, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")).encode() + return hashlib.sha256(encoded).hexdigest() + + +def run_confirmatory(config: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]: + first, first_latency = run_once(config) + second, second_latency = run_once(config) + hashes = [_semantic_hash(first), _semantic_hash(second)] + reproducible = hashes[0] == hashes[1] + checks = { + **first["criterionWithoutReproducibility"]["tests"], + "semanticResultReproducible": reproducible, + } + return { + "schema": "minority-prophet.dri1a-confirmatory-result.v1", + "status": "confirmatory-complete", + "criterion": {"tests": checks, "supported": all(checks.values())}, + "semanticResultSha256Runs": hashes, + "semanticResult": first, + "latencyRuns": [first_latency, second_latency], + } + + +def main() -> None: + here = Path(__file__).parent + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--config", type=Path, default=here / "EXECUTION-CONFIG.json") + parser.add_argument("--preregistration", type=Path, default=here / "PREREGISTRATION.md") + parser.add_argument("--output", required=True, type=Path) + args = parser.parse_args() + config = load_frozen_config(args.config, args.preregistration) + result = run_confirmatory(config) + args.output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + args.output.write_text(json.dumps(result, sort_keys=True, indent=2) + "\n") + print( + json.dumps( + { + "criterionSupported": result["criterion"]["supported"], + "semanticSha256": result["semanticResultSha256Runs"][0], + "outputSha256": _sha256(args.output), + }, + sort_keys=True, + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() + diff --git a/research/decision-relative-independence/README.md b/research/decision-relative-independence/README.md index 5987db5..451574a 100644 --- a/research/decision-relative-independence/README.md +++ b/research/decision-relative-independence/README.md @@ -146,6 +146,23 @@ selected-cut accuracy, calibration, latency and sensitivity-report accuracy. Score cut selection separately from aggregation so a correct vote cannot hide an incorrect causal model. +### DRI-1A candidate result + +The declared-policy arm ran 8,192 frozen synthetic worlds and **failed** its +joint preregistered criterion. This is a noncanonical candidate diagnostic: its +pre-run record omitted uncertainty, multiple-testing, lifecycle, and environment +fields required by the repository's canonical standard. The relevant-cut policy was materially more +accurate than every fixed cut and recovered all registered minority reversals, +but a globally deepest cut bought a lower false-settlement rate by abstaining on +40.23% of worlds. Several coarse baselines could not be matched to the oracle's +zero-abstention operating point, so the registered matched comparison failed. +The deterministic five-cut assessment remained below 0.7 ms p99 on the test +machine. See `results/dri1a-v1/README.md` for the complete bounded result. + +The next open question is DRI-1B: can blinded humans or models select the right +cut on externally authored cases? DRI-1A cannot answer it because its rules +engine received the explicit failure-domain label. + ## Falsification and kill criteria Reject or sharply narrow the proposal if any of the following survives matched diff --git a/results/dri1a-v1/README.md b/results/dri1a-v1/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d565f63 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/dri1a-v1/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,133 @@ +# DRI-1A preregistered candidate result + +**Outcome:** the preregistered joint criterion was **not supported**. + +This is the first bounded local run of the declared-policy arm of +decision-relative independence. It used all 8,192 frozen synthetic worlds. The +semantic result was identical across two executions: + +```text +c63097e8ada155aba93e2ceb310dca771285114a2581998515a8fbdfa85487a2 +``` + +The generated world manifest was: + +```text +a940c3ea06f0b310c12a3cbb1c7d17ef805b93338f42334a9afe70e6a18199f1 +``` + +The content SHA-256 of `result.json` when this record was captured was: + +```text +ec8b2428f459af9f80b8372935d5d0eb1ed1d22aefc30aa0864ec00b55da4c6c +``` + +## Frozen lineage + +- preregistration commit: `59c83ff948ddfccf279d8b07c16caba63ae1ddf6` +- frozen runner commit: `1b16f9ca62dd17cfde18701a237d85489dfa443b` +- preregistration SHA-256: + `6f47faa5aaa3d856e7d9e990b40b086288a9d05507a2b7ec053f85ef720248ce` +- execution-config SHA-256: + `42078e86815cd5b806e1a44f23aaff4b002f94af7193b5c422adf0c948bb7d1b` + +The runner refuses changed protocol/config bytes. No failed criterion was tuned, +dropped, or rerun under a replacement threshold. + +## Record classification + +This result is **not canonical** under `CANONICAL-RECORDS.md`. The protocol and +runner were frozen before inspectable outcome metrics, but the pre-run package +did not include a lifecycle record, registered uncertainty intervals, +multiple-testing treatment, or the complete environment/intervention manifest +required for canonical promotion. Those omissions cannot be repaired after the +outcome is known. The result is preserved as an adverse candidate diagnostic +and is not added to the canonical registry or public-claims ledger. + +## Primary results + +| Method | Correct settlement | False settlement | Abstention | Minority-reversal recovery | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| Decision-relative oracle | 90.99% | 9.01% | 0.00% | 100.00% | +| Explicit rules engine | 90.99% | 9.01% | 0.00% | 100.00% | +| Agent headcount | 60.78% | 39.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +| Fixed machine | 68.32% | 31.68% | 0.00% | 24.97% | +| Fixed controller | 64.33% | 22.08% | 13.59% | 27.35% | +| Fixed evidence origin | 64.48% | 22.07% | 13.45% | 27.56% | +| Fixed upstream component | 56.51% | 3.26% | 40.23% | 32.77% | + +The decision-relative policy improved correct settlement by 22.67 percentage +points over the best fixed-cut result and by 30.21 points over headcount. It +recovered all 2,475 registered minority-reversal worlds, while headcount +recovered none. A cut change was decision-material in 50.13% of worlds. + +Those are descriptive outcomes, not a rescued primary claim. + +## Why the joint criterion failed + +The registered criterion required at least 15 percentage points lower false +settlement than **every** fixed cut, including after abstention matching. + +- Reduction versus agent headcount: `30.21` points. +- Reduction versus fixed machine: `22.67` points. +- Reduction versus fixed controller: `13.07` points. +- Reduction versus fixed evidence origin: `13.06` points. +- Reduction versus fixed upstream component: `-5.75` points. + +The last baseline was safer only in the narrow false-settlement sense because it +abstained on 40.23% of all worlds and made fewer correct settlements than every +other method. Its coarsest root policy erased both duplicated error and useful +independent evidence. This is exactly why false settlement cannot be interpreted +without decisiveness and missed-action cost. + +Only agent headcount and fixed machine could match the oracle's zero abstention +with the frozen threshold search. The other fixed cuts remained 11.95–35.84 +points away, so the abstention-matched joint condition correctly failed rather +than pretending the operating points were comparable. + +## Latency + +The deterministic Python path evaluated the selected cut plus all four +alternatives with these two-run timings: + +| Run | p50 | p95 | p99 | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| 1 | 0.139 ms | 0.449 ms | 0.673 ms | +| 2 | 0.138 ms | 0.435 ms | 0.685 ms | + +This demonstrates that the graph/counting primitive itself does not require an +LLM and can fit a tactical path on this laptop. It is not a hard-real-time +guarantee: persistence, network transport, lineage acquisition, scheduling, +and production tail latency were not measured. + +## What the result establishes + +In the frozen world model, no one global collapse level preserved accurate +decisions across machine, controller, source-copying, and common-component +failure domains. Counting at the registered relevant cut preserved independently +rooted minority evidence without adopting a no-child-left-behind policy: the +minority won only when it represented the causal-root majority for that decision. + +## What it does not establish + +The rules engine scored perfectly because the failure domain was supplied and +the mapping was explicit. That is a wiring and runtime result, not evidence that +a model or human can identify the correct cut in unfamiliar cases. The data are +synthetic, erroneous roots were deliberately amplified, and the lineage was +ground truth. The run says nothing about field prevalence, self-reported roots, +joint failure domains, action authority, customer demand, or commercial value. + +The next falsification gate is DRI-1B: externally authored, blinded cases in +which humans and models must select a cut without seeing outcome labels. Do not +build a runtime gate before that selection problem and real lineage availability +are measured. + +## Procedural note + +Before the frozen runner commit, a development unit test calculated the full +semantic loop once to assert determinism and rules/oracle equality. It printed no +outcome metrics, and no implementation or threshold was changed in response. +The test was then narrowed to a 128-world integrity sample before the runner was +committed. This is not a data-independence violation—the generator was already +preregistered and no result was observed—but it is recorded so the execution +history is complete. diff --git a/results/dri1a-v1/result.json b/results/dri1a-v1/result.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4335e1c --- /dev/null +++ b/results/dri1a-v1/result.json @@ -0,0 +1,2254 @@ +{ + "criterion": { + "supported": false, + "tests": { + "allFixedCutsAbstentionMatched": false, + "matchedOracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": false, + "minimumMaterialWorldFraction": true, + "mostCommonSelectorAtMostQuarter": true, + "oracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": false, + "rulesEngineEqualsOracle": true, + "rulesEnginePerfectCutSelection": true, + "rulesUnnecessaryAbstentionWithinLimit": true, + "semanticResultReproducible": true + } + }, + "latencyRuns": [ + { + "p50Milliseconds": 0.138646, + "p95Milliseconds": 0.448992, + "p99Milliseconds": 0.672955, + "samples": 8192 + }, + { + "p50Milliseconds": 0.138041, + "p95Milliseconds": 0.435268, + "p99Milliseconds": 0.685401, + "samples": 8192 + } + ], + "schema": "minority-prophet.dri1a-confirmatory-result.v1", + "semanticResult": { + "abstentionMatched": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionDifference": 0.0, + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.607788086, + "correctSettlements": 4979, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.392211914, + "falseSettlements": 3213, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.697875977, + "threshold": 1, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "withinTolerance": true, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionDifference": 0.12121582, + "abstentionRate": 0.12121582, + "abstentions": 993, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.655761719, + "correctSettlements": 5372, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.223022461, + "falseSettlements": 1827, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 736, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.297373737, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.727539062, + "threshold": 1, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.102905273, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 843, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "withinTolerance": false, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionDifference": 0.119506836, + "abstentionRate": 0.119506836, + "abstentions": 979, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.656738281, + "correctSettlements": 5380, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.223754883, + "falseSettlements": 1833, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 742, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.29979798, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.728881836, + "threshold": 1, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.1015625, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 832, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "withinTolerance": false, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionDifference": 0.0, + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.683227539, + "correctSettlements": 5597, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.316772461, + "falseSettlements": 2595, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.24969697, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.77331543, + "threshold": 1, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "withinTolerance": true, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionDifference": 0.358398438, + "abstentionRate": 0.358398438, + "abstentions": 2936, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.601196289, + "correctSettlements": 4925, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.040405273, + "falseSettlements": 331, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 986, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.398383838, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.641601562, + "threshold": 1, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.30871582, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 2529, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "withinTolerance": false, + "worlds": 8192 + } + }, + "abstentionMatchedFalseSettlementReduction": { + "agent_headcount": 0.302124023, + "fixed_controller": 0.13293457, + "fixed_evidence_origin": 0.133666992, + "fixed_machine": 0.22668457, + "fixed_upstream_component": -0.049682618 + }, + "configSha256": "42078e86815cd5b806e1a44f23aaff4b002f94af7193b5c422adf0c948bb7d1b", + "criterionWithoutReproducibility": { + "supported": false, + "tests": { + "allFixedCutsAbstentionMatched": false, + "matchedOracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": false, + "minimumMaterialWorldFraction": true, + "mostCommonSelectorAtMostQuarter": true, + "oracleMinimumReductionEveryFixedCut": false, + "rulesEngineEqualsOracle": true, + "rulesEnginePerfectCutSelection": true, + "rulesUnnecessaryAbstentionWithinLimit": true + } + }, + "decisionMaterialWorldFraction": 0.501342773, + "decisionMaterialWorlds": 4107, + "interpretationBoundary": "Frozen synthetic declared-policy benchmark; no learned cut inference, real-world lineage validation, joint multi-cut claim, or action authority.", + "methodsByStratum": { + "accuracy=0.65": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.358886719, + "correctSettlements": 735, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.641113281, + "falseSettlements": 1313, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.592773438, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.197753906, + "abstentions": 405, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.415039062, + "correctSettlements": 850, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.387207031, + "falseSettlements": 793, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 223, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.267386091, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.594238281, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.143066406, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 293, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.200195312, + "abstentions": 410, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.418945312, + "correctSettlements": 858, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.380859375, + "falseSettlements": 780, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 229, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.274580336, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.596191406, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.143554688, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 294, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.458984375, + "correctSettlements": 940, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.541015625, + "falseSettlements": 1108, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 205, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.245803357, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.692871094, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.594238281, + "abstentions": 1217, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.321777344, + "correctSettlements": 659, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.083984375, + "falseSettlements": 172, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 266, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.318944844, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.405761719, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.444335938, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 910, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.197753906, + "abstentions": 405, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.415039062, + "correctSettlements": 850, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.387207031, + "falseSettlements": 793, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 223, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.267386091, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.594238281, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.143066406, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 293, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.766113281, + "correctSettlements": 1569, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.233886719, + "falseSettlements": 479, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 834, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.766113281, + "correctSettlements": 1569, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.233886719, + "falseSettlements": 479, + "minorityReversalEligible": 834, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 834, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "accuracy=0.75": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.50390625, + "correctSettlements": 1032, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.49609375, + "falseSettlements": 1016, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.603515625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.176269531, + "abstentions": 361, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.552246094, + "correctSettlements": 1131, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.271484375, + "falseSettlements": 556, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 225, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.277093596, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.62890625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.153320312, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 314, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.171875, + "abstentions": 352, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.55078125, + "correctSettlements": 1128, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.27734375, + "falseSettlements": 568, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 219, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.269704433, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.628417969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.149902344, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 307, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.604980469, + "correctSettlements": 1239, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.395019531, + "falseSettlements": 809, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 207, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.254926108, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.704589844, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.513671875, + "abstentions": 1052, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.453613281, + "correctSettlements": 929, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.032714844, + "falseSettlements": 67, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 263, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.323891626, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.486328125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.446777344, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 915, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.176269531, + "abstentions": 361, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.552246094, + "correctSettlements": 1131, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.271484375, + "falseSettlements": 556, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 225, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.277093596, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.62890625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.153320312, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 314, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.900390625, + "correctSettlements": 1844, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.099609375, + "falseSettlements": 204, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 812, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.900390625, + "correctSettlements": 1844, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.099609375, + "falseSettlements": 204, + "minorityReversalEligible": 812, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 812, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "accuracy=0.85": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.672363281, + "correctSettlements": 1377, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.327636719, + "falseSettlements": 671, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.698730469, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.122070312, + "abstentions": 250, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.705078125, + "correctSettlements": 1444, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.172851562, + "falseSettlements": 354, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 169, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.273905997, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.727050781, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.117675781, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 241, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.12109375, + "abstentions": 248, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.707519531, + "correctSettlements": 1449, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.171386719, + "falseSettlements": 351, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 173, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.280388979, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.728515625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.115722656, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 237, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.74609375, + "correctSettlements": 1528, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.25390625, + "falseSettlements": 520, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 151, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.244732577, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.772460938, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.362304688, + "abstentions": 742, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.624511719, + "correctSettlements": 1279, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.013183594, + "falseSettlements": 27, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 206, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.333873582, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.637695312, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.349121094, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 715, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.122070312, + "abstentions": 250, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.705078125, + "correctSettlements": 1444, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.172851562, + "falseSettlements": 354, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 169, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.273905997, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.727050781, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.117675781, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 241, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.973632812, + "correctSettlements": 1994, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.026367188, + "falseSettlements": 54, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 617, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.973632812, + "correctSettlements": 1994, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.026367188, + "falseSettlements": 54, + "minorityReversalEligible": 617, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 617, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "accuracy=0.95": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.895996094, + "correctSettlements": 1835, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.104003906, + "falseSettlements": 213, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.896484375, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.047363281, + "abstentions": 97, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.900878906, + "correctSettlements": 1845, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.051757812, + "falseSettlements": 106, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 60, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.283018868, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.901367188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.047363281, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 97, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.044921875, + "abstentions": 92, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.901855469, + "correctSettlements": 1847, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.053222656, + "falseSettlements": 109, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 61, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.287735849, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.90234375, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.044921875, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 92, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.922851562, + "correctSettlements": 1890, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.077148438, + "falseSettlements": 158, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 55, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.259433962, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.923339844, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.139160156, + "abstentions": 285, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.860351562, + "correctSettlements": 1762, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.000488281, + "falseSettlements": 1, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 76, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.358490566, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.860839844, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.139160156, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 285, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.047363281, + "abstentions": 97, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.900878906, + "correctSettlements": 1845, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.051757812, + "falseSettlements": 106, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 60, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.283018868, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.901367188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.047363281, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 97, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.999511719, + "correctSettlements": 2047, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.000488281, + "falseSettlements": 1, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 212, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.999511719, + "correctSettlements": 2047, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.000488281, + "falseSettlements": 1, + "minorityReversalEligible": 212, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 212, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "amplification=1": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910644531, + "correctSettlements": 1865, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089355469, + "falseSettlements": 183, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134277344, + "abstentions": 275, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.794433594, + "correctSettlements": 1627, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.071289062, + "falseSettlements": 146, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.865722656, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.116210938, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 238, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.135742188, + "abstentions": 278, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.795898438, + "correctSettlements": 1630, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.068359375, + "falseSettlements": 140, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.864257812, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.114746094, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 235, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910644531, + "correctSettlements": 1865, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089355469, + "falseSettlements": 183, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.407226562, + "abstentions": 834, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.561035156, + "correctSettlements": 1149, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.031738281, + "falseSettlements": 65, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.592773438, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.349609375, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 716, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134277344, + "abstentions": 275, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.794433594, + "correctSettlements": 1627, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.071289062, + "falseSettlements": 146, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.865722656, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.116210938, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 238, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910644531, + "correctSettlements": 1865, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089355469, + "falseSettlements": 183, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910644531, + "correctSettlements": 1865, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089355469, + "falseSettlements": 183, + "minorityReversalEligible": 0, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": null, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "amplification=15": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.400390625, + "correctSettlements": 820, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.599609375, + "falseSettlements": 1228, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.483398438, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.139648438, + "abstentions": 286, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.542480469, + "correctSettlements": 1111, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.317871094, + "falseSettlements": 651, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 291, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.275047259, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.604980469, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.119140625, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 244, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.138183594, + "abstentions": 283, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.5390625, + "correctSettlements": 1104, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.322753906, + "falseSettlements": 661, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 284, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.268431002, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.603515625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.119628906, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 245, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.528320312, + "correctSettlements": 1082, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.471679688, + "falseSettlements": 966, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 262, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.247637051, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.611328125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.401855469, + "abstentions": 823, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.566894531, + "correctSettlements": 1161, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.03125, + "falseSettlements": 64, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 341, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.322306238, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.598144531, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.350097656, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 717, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.139648438, + "abstentions": 286, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.542480469, + "correctSettlements": 1111, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.317871094, + "falseSettlements": 651, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 291, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.275047259, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.604980469, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.119140625, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 244, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.916992188, + "correctSettlements": 1878, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.083007812, + "falseSettlements": 170, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.916992188, + "correctSettlements": 1878, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.083007812, + "falseSettlements": 170, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1058, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "amplification=3": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.720214844, + "correctSettlements": 1475, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.279785156, + "falseSettlements": 573, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.815917969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134765625, + "abstentions": 276, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.695800781, + "correctSettlements": 1425, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.169433594, + "falseSettlements": 347, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 98, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.25994695, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.769042969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.112304688, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 230, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.132324219, + "abstentions": 271, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.703125, + "correctSettlements": 1440, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.164550781, + "falseSettlements": 337, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 109, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.289124668, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.774902344, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.108398438, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 222, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.765625, + "correctSettlements": 1568, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.234375, + "falseSettlements": 480, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 93, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.24668435, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.861328125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.40234375, + "abstentions": 824, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.565429688, + "correctSettlements": 1158, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.032226562, + "falseSettlements": 66, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 128, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.339522546, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.59765625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.338867188, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 694, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134765625, + "abstentions": 276, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.695800781, + "correctSettlements": 1425, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.169433594, + "falseSettlements": 347, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 98, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.25994695, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.769042969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.112304688, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 230, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.904296875, + "correctSettlements": 1852, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.095703125, + "falseSettlements": 196, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 377, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.904296875, + "correctSettlements": 1852, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.095703125, + "falseSettlements": 196, + "minorityReversalEligible": 377, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 377, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "amplification=7": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "correctSettlements": 819, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "falseSettlements": 1229, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.4921875, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134765625, + "abstentions": 276, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.540527344, + "correctSettlements": 1107, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.324707031, + "falseSettlements": 665, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 288, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.276923077, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.611816406, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.113769531, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 233, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.131835938, + "abstentions": 270, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.541015625, + "correctSettlements": 1108, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.327148438, + "falseSettlements": 670, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 289, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.277884615, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.612792969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.111328125, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 228, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.528320312, + "correctSettlements": 1082, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.471679688, + "falseSettlements": 966, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 263, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.252884615, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.620605469, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.397949219, + "abstentions": 815, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.566894531, + "correctSettlements": 1161, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.03515625, + "falseSettlements": 72, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 342, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.328846154, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.602050781, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.340820312, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 698, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134765625, + "abstentions": 276, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.540527344, + "correctSettlements": 1107, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.324707031, + "falseSettlements": 665, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 288, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.276923077, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.611816406, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.113769531, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 233, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.907714844, + "correctSettlements": 1859, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.092285156, + "falseSettlements": 189, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.907714844, + "correctSettlements": 1859, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.092285156, + "falseSettlements": 189, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1040, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "decision_class=high_irreversible": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.608886719, + "correctSettlements": 2494, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.391113281, + "falseSettlements": 1602, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.697998047, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.148925781, + "abstentions": 610, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.635009766, + "correctSettlements": 2601, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.216064453, + "falseSettlements": 885, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 314, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.253839935, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.701660156, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.126464844, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 518, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.151123047, + "abstentions": 619, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.632568359, + "correctSettlements": 2591, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.216308594, + "falseSettlements": 886, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 300, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.242522231, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.696777344, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.126220703, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 517, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.684814453, + "correctSettlements": 2805, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.315185547, + "falseSettlements": 1291, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 311, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.251414713, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.773925781, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.443847656, + "abstentions": 1818, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.533203125, + "correctSettlements": 2184, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.022949219, + "falseSettlements": 94, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 312, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.25222312, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.556152344, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.377685547, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 1547, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.148925781, + "abstentions": 610, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.635009766, + "correctSettlements": 2601, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.216064453, + "falseSettlements": 885, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 314, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.253839935, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.701660156, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.126464844, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 518, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910888672, + "correctSettlements": 3731, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089111328, + "falseSettlements": 365, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.910888672, + "correctSettlements": 3731, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.089111328, + "falseSettlements": 365, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1237, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + } + }, + "decision_class=low_reversible": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.606689453, + "correctSettlements": 2485, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.393310547, + "falseSettlements": 1611, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.697753906, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.122802734, + "abstentions": 503, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.651611328, + "correctSettlements": 2669, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.225585938, + "falseSettlements": 924, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 363, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.293214863, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.724121094, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.104248047, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 427, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.117919922, + "abstentions": 483, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.656982422, + "correctSettlements": 2691, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.225097656, + "falseSettlements": 922, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 382, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.308562197, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.730957031, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.100830078, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 413, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.681640625, + "correctSettlements": 2792, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.318359375, + "falseSettlements": 1304, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 307, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.247980614, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.772705078, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.360839844, + "abstentions": 1478, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.596923828, + "correctSettlements": 2445, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.042236328, + "falseSettlements": 173, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 499, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.403069467, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.639160156, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.312011719, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 1278, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.122802734, + "abstentions": 503, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.651611328, + "correctSettlements": 2669, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.225585938, + "falseSettlements": 924, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 363, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.293214863, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.724121094, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.104248047, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 427, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.908935547, + "correctSettlements": 3723, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.091064453, + "falseSettlements": 373, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.908935547, + "correctSettlements": 3723, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.091064453, + "falseSettlements": 373, + "minorityReversalEligible": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 1238, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 4096 + } + }, + "failure_domain=copied_source": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.622558594, + "correctSettlements": 1275, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.377441406, + "falseSettlements": 773, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.699707031, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.622558594, + "correctSettlements": 1275, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.377441406, + "falseSettlements": 773, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.699707031, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.922851562, + "correctSettlements": 1890, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.077148438, + "falseSettlements": 158, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 615, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.622558594, + "correctSettlements": 1275, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.377441406, + "falseSettlements": 773, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.699707031, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.527832031, + "abstentions": 1081, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.458984375, + "correctSettlements": 940, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.013183594, + "falseSettlements": 27, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 61, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.099186992, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.472167969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.463867188, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 950, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.622558594, + "correctSettlements": 1275, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.377441406, + "falseSettlements": 773, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.699707031, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.922851562, + "correctSettlements": 1890, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.077148438, + "falseSettlements": 158, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 615, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.922851562, + "correctSettlements": 1890, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.077148438, + "falseSettlements": 158, + "minorityReversalEligible": 615, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 615, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "failure_domain=machine_local": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.607910156, + "correctSettlements": 1245, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.392089844, + "falseSettlements": 803, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.698242188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.543457031, + "abstentions": 1113, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.448242188, + "correctSettlements": 918, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.008300781, + "falseSettlements": 17, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 59, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.095469256, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.456542969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.461425781, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 945, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.607910156, + "correctSettlements": 1245, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.392089844, + "falseSettlements": 803, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.698242188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.909667969, + "correctSettlements": 1863, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.090332031, + "falseSettlements": 185, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.543457031, + "abstentions": 1113, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.448242188, + "correctSettlements": 918, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.008300781, + "falseSettlements": 17, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 59, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.095469256, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.456542969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.461425781, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 945, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.543457031, + "abstentions": 1113, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.448242188, + "correctSettlements": 918, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.008300781, + "falseSettlements": 17, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 59, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.095469256, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.456542969, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.461425781, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 945, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.909667969, + "correctSettlements": 1863, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.090332031, + "falseSettlements": 185, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.909667969, + "correctSettlements": 1863, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.090332031, + "falseSettlements": 185, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "failure_domain=shared_controller": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600585938, + "correctSettlements": 1230, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399414062, + "falseSettlements": 818, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.698242188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.90234375, + "correctSettlements": 1848, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.09765625, + "falseSettlements": 200, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.538085938, + "abstentions": 1102, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.448242188, + "correctSettlements": 918, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.013671875, + "falseSettlements": 28, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 67, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.108414239, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.461914062, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.454101562, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 930, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600585938, + "correctSettlements": 1230, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399414062, + "falseSettlements": 818, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.698242188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.538085938, + "abstentions": 1102, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.448242188, + "correctSettlements": 918, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.013671875, + "falseSettlements": 28, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 67, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.108414239, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.461914062, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.454101562, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 930, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.90234375, + "correctSettlements": 1848, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.09765625, + "falseSettlements": 200, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.90234375, + "correctSettlements": 1848, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.09765625, + "falseSettlements": 200, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.90234375, + "correctSettlements": 1848, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.09765625, + "falseSettlements": 200, + "minorityReversalEligible": 618, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "failure_domain=shared_upstream_component": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "correctSettlements": 1229, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "falseSettlements": 819, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.6953125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "correctSettlements": 1229, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "falseSettlements": 819, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.6953125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "correctSettlements": 1229, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "falseSettlements": 819, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.6953125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "correctSettlements": 1229, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "falseSettlements": 819, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.6953125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.904785156, + "correctSettlements": 1853, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.095214844, + "falseSettlements": 195, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 624, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.600097656, + "correctSettlements": 1229, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.399902344, + "falseSettlements": 819, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.6953125, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.904785156, + "correctSettlements": 1853, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.095214844, + "falseSettlements": 195, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 624, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.904785156, + "correctSettlements": 1853, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.095214844, + "falseSettlements": 195, + "minorityReversalEligible": 624, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 624, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 2048 + } + }, + "overall": { + "agent_headcount": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.607788086, + "correctSettlements": 4979, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.392211914, + "falseSettlements": 3213, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 0, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.697875977, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_controller": { + "abstentionRate": 0.135864258, + "abstentions": 1113, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.643310547, + "correctSettlements": 5270, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.220825195, + "falseSettlements": 1809, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 677, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.273535354, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.712890625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.115356445, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 945, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_evidence_origin": { + "abstentionRate": 0.134521484, + "abstentions": 1102, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.644775391, + "correctSettlements": 5282, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.220703125, + "falseSettlements": 1808, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 682, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.275555556, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.713867188, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.113525391, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 930, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_machine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.683227539, + "correctSettlements": 5597, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.316772461, + "falseSettlements": 2595, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 618, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.24969697, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.77331543, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "fixed_upstream_component": { + "abstentionRate": 0.40234375, + "abstentions": 3296, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.565063477, + "correctSettlements": 4629, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.032592773, + "falseSettlements": 267, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 811, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.327676768, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.59765625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.344848633, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 2825, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "most_common_selector": { + "abstentionRate": 0.135864258, + "abstentions": 1113, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.643310547, + "correctSettlements": 5270, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.220825195, + "falseSettlements": 1809, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 677, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 0.273535354, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 0.712890625, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.115356445, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 945, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "oracle_policy": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.909912109, + "correctSettlements": 7454, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.090087891, + "falseSettlements": 738, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "rules_engine": { + "abstentionRate": 0.0, + "abstentions": 0, + "correctSettlementRate": 0.909912109, + "correctSettlements": 7454, + "falseSettlementRate": 0.090087891, + "falseSettlements": 738, + "minorityReversalEligible": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecovered": 2475, + "minorityReversalRecoveryRate": 1.0, + "oracleDispositionAgreementRate": 1.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentionRate": 0.0, + "unnecessaryAbstentions": 0, + "unsupportedSettlementRate": 0.0, + "unsupportedSettlements": 0, + "worlds": 8192 + } + } + }, + "preregistrationSha256": "6f47faa5aaa3d856e7d9e990b40b086288a9d05507a2b7ec053f85ef720248ce", + "registeredThresholdFalseSettlementReduction": { + "agent_headcount": 0.302124023, + "fixed_controller": 0.130737304, + "fixed_evidence_origin": 0.130615234, + "fixed_machine": 0.22668457, + "fixed_upstream_component": -0.057495118 + }, + "rulesOracleDispositionMismatches": 0, + "schema": "minority-prophet.dri1a-semantic-result.v1", + "selectedCutAccuracy": { + "most_common_selector": 0.25, + "oracle_policy": 1.0, + "rules_engine": 1.0 + }, + "status": "confirmatory-scored", + "worldManifestSha256": "a940c3ea06f0b310c12a3cbb1c7d17ef805b93338f42334a9afe70e6a18199f1", + "worlds": 8192 + }, + "semanticResultSha256Runs": [ + "c63097e8ada155aba93e2ceb310dca771285114a2581998515a8fbdfa85487a2", + "c63097e8ada155aba93e2ceb310dca771285114a2581998515a8fbdfa85487a2" + ], + "status": "confirmatory-complete" +} diff --git a/tests/test_dri1_confirmatory.py b/tests/test_dri1_confirmatory.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a84cebb --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_dri1_confirmatory.py @@ -0,0 +1,75 @@ +from pathlib import Path + +from experiments.dri1.run_confirmatory import ( + CONFIG_SHA256, + PREREGISTRATION_SHA256, + _outcomes, + generate_world, + iter_worlds, + load_frozen_config, +) + +ROOT = Path(__file__).parents[1] +CONFIG = ROOT / "experiments" / "dri1" / "EXECUTION-CONFIG.json" +PREREGISTRATION = ROOT / "experiments" / "dri1" / "PREREGISTRATION.md" + + +def _config(): + return load_frozen_config(CONFIG, PREREGISTRATION) + + +def test_preregistered_inputs_are_content_bound(): + config = _config() + assert CONFIG_SHA256 == "42078e86815cd5b806e1a44f23aaff4b002f94af7193b5c422adf0c948bb7d1b" + assert PREREGISTRATION_SHA256 == ( + "6f47faa5aaa3d856e7d9e990b40b086288a9d05507a2b7ec053f85ef720248ce" + ) + assert config["status"] == "preregistered-unexecuted" + + +def test_generator_materializes_the_frozen_factorial(): + worlds = list(iter_worlds(_config())) + assert len(worlds) == 8192 + assert len({world.world_id for world in worlds}) == 8192 + assert {world.relevant_cut for world in worlds} == { + "machine", + "controller", + "evidence_origin", + "upstream_component", + } + + +def test_repeated_observation_is_distinct_at_fine_cut_and_shared_at_relevant_cut(): + config = _config() + for replicate in range(config["replicates_per_cell"]): + world = generate_world( + config, + failure_domain="copied_source", + accuracy=0.65, + amplification=15, + decision_class="high_irreversible", + replicate=replicate, + ) + by_origin = {} + for item in world.evidence: + by_origin.setdefault(item.roots["evidence_origin"], []).append(item) + copied = next((items for items in by_origin.values() if len(items) > 1), None) + if copied: + assert len({item.roots["agent"] for item in copied}) == len(copied) + assert len({item.roots["evidence_origin"] for item in copied}) == 1 + return + raise AssertionError("frozen generator produced no copied source in searched worlds") + + +def test_sampled_worlds_are_deterministic_and_rules_equal_oracle(): + config = _config() + first = list(iter_worlds(config))[:128] + second = list(iter_worlds(config))[:128] + assert first == second + cuts = tuple(config["candidate_cuts"]) + for world in first: + oracle, _ = _outcomes(world, world.relevant_cut, world.threshold, cuts) + selected_cut = config["cut_policy"][world.failure_domain] + rules, _ = _outcomes(world, selected_cut, world.threshold, cuts) + assert selected_cut == world.relevant_cut + assert rules[selected_cut].settlement == oracle[world.relevant_cut].settlement diff --git a/tests/test_dri1_result.py b/tests/test_dri1_result.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bdd9726 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_dri1_result.py @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +import hashlib +import json +from pathlib import Path + +RESULT = Path(__file__).parents[1] / "results" / "dri1a-v1" / "result.json" + + +def test_dri1a_adverse_result_is_content_bound_and_not_relabelled_success(): + assert hashlib.sha256(RESULT.read_bytes()).hexdigest() == ( + "ec8b2428f459af9f80b8372935d5d0eb1ed1d22aefc30aa0864ec00b55da4c6c" + ) + result = json.loads(RESULT.read_text()) + assert result["criterion"]["supported"] is False + assert result["semanticResultSha256Runs"] == [ + "c63097e8ada155aba93e2ceb310dca771285114a2581998515a8fbdfa85487a2", + "c63097e8ada155aba93e2ceb310dca771285114a2581998515a8fbdfa85487a2", + ] + assert result["semanticResult"]["worlds"] == 8192 + assert result["semanticResult"]["rulesOracleDispositionMismatches"] == 0 + + +def test_dri1a_preserves_the_narrow_diagnostic_without_rescuing_the_criterion(): + result = json.loads(RESULT.read_text())["semanticResult"] + overall = result["methodsByStratum"]["overall"] + assert overall["oracle_policy"]["correctSettlementRate"] == 0.909912109 + assert overall["agent_headcount"]["correctSettlementRate"] == 0.607788086 + assert overall["oracle_policy"]["minorityReversalRecoveryRate"] == 1.0 + assert overall["agent_headcount"]["minorityReversalRecoveryRate"] == 0.0 + assert overall["fixed_upstream_component"]["abstentionRate"] == 0.40234375 +