diff --git a/agent-radar.json b/agent-radar.json index 50b6ada..66b8c18 100644 --- a/agent-radar.json +++ b/agent-radar.json @@ -4,12 +4,12 @@ "schema_version": 1, "total_packs": 107, "total_tasks": 554, - "scoped_tasks": 101, - "latent_tasks": 453, + "scoped_tasks": 100, + "latent_tasks": 454, "status_counts": { - "scoped": 101, + "scoped": 100, "needs-triage": 447, - "needs-review": 6 + "needs-review": 7 }, "owner_role_counts": { "literature-scout": 107, @@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ "field-reality-reviewer": 108 }, "scoped_role_counts": { - "literature-scout": 101 + "literature-scout": 100 }, "reviewer_needed_counts": { "domain-reviewer": 229, @@ -428,8 +428,8 @@ "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/lead-exposure-urban-global/tasks.json" }, { - "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", - "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa", + "pack_id": "public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global", + "pack_title": "Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries", "scoped_tasks": 1, "downstream_tasks": 5, "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4, @@ -446,52 +446,52 @@ "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, "evidence_count": 2, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json" + "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md", + "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/tasks.json" }, { - "pack_id": "public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global", - "pack_title": "Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries", + "pack_id": "public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global", + "pack_title": "Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries", "scoped_tasks": 1, "downstream_tasks": 5, - "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4, + "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 3, "downstream_by_role": { - "data-cleaner": 1, "implementation-planner": 2, + "data-cleaner": 1, "red-team-reviewer": 1, "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, "downstream_reviewers_needed": { - "replicator": 1, "domain-reviewer": 2, + "replicator": 1, "red-team-reviewer": 1, "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, - "evidence_count": 2, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/tasks.json" + "evidence_count": 4, + "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md", + "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/tasks.json" }, { - "pack_id": "public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global", - "pack_title": "Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries", + "pack_id": "biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef", + "pack_title": "Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef", "scoped_tasks": 1, "downstream_tasks": 5, "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 3, "downstream_by_role": { - "implementation-planner": 2, "data-cleaner": 1, + "implementation-planner": 2, "red-team-reviewer": 1, "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, "downstream_reviewers_needed": { - "domain-reviewer": 2, "replicator": 1, + "domain-reviewer": 2, "red-team-reviewer": 1, "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, - "evidence_count": 4, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/tasks.json" + "evidence_count": 3, + "problem_file": "problem-packs/biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef/problem.md", + "tasks_file": "problem-packs/biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef/tasks.json" } ], "reviewer_hotspots": [ @@ -508,6 +508,19 @@ "downstream_tasks": 6, "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa/problem.md" }, + { + "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa", + "downstream_reviewers_needed": { + "domain-reviewer": 3, + "replicator": 1, + "red-team-reviewer": 1, + "field-reality-reviewer": 1 + }, + "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4, + "downstream_tasks": 6, + "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md" + }, { "pack_id": "occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global", "pack_title": "Occupational Heat Stress And Worker Health In Outdoor Industries Under Climate Change", @@ -611,19 +624,6 @@ "downstream_tasks": 5, "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-safety/aflatoxin-exposure-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md" }, - { - "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", - "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa", - "downstream_reviewers_needed": { - "replicator": 1, - "domain-reviewer": 2, - "red-team-reviewer": 1, - "field-reality-reviewer": 1 - }, - "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4, - "downstream_tasks": 5, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md" - }, { "pack_id": "food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa", "pack_title": "Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa", @@ -657,7 +657,7 @@ "scoped_tasks": 0, "latent_tasks": 129, "share_of_all_tasks": 0.233, - "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.285 + "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.284 }, { "owner_role": "field-reality-reviewer", @@ -682,10 +682,10 @@ }, { "owner_role": "literature-scout", - "scoped_tasks": 101, - "latent_tasks": 6, + "scoped_tasks": 100, + "latent_tasks": 7, "share_of_all_tasks": 0.193, - "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.013 + "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.015 } ] } diff --git a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md index f1d9ae5..453d019 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md @@ -15,8 +15,8 @@ Without routing, a new agent sees a flat task list and misses the actual shape o - **107 problem packs** - **554 total tasks** -- **101 scoped now** -- **453 follow-on tasks still latent** +- **100 scoped now** +- **454 follow-on tasks still latent** - **Owner roles:** `data-cleaner`: 103, `field-reality-reviewer`: 108, `implementation-planner`: 129, `literature-scout`: 107, `red-team-reviewer`: 107 - **Reviewer demand:** `domain-reviewer`: 229, `field-reality-reviewer`: 109, `red-team-reviewer`: 107, `replicator`: 109 - **Safety mix:** `high`: 288, `low`: 15, `medium`: 251 @@ -263,9 +263,9 @@ These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it. - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 - Existing evidence records: 3 -### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa +### Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries -- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) +- Pack: [`public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md) - Scoped tasks at front door: 1 - Follow-on tasks behind it: 5 - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 @@ -273,25 +273,25 @@ These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it. - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 - Existing evidence records: 2 -### Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries +### Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries -- Pack: [`public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md) +- Pack: [`public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md) - Scoped tasks at front door: 1 - Follow-on tasks behind it: 5 -- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 +- High-risk follow-on tasks: 3 - Follow-on roles: `data-cleaner`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 -- Existing evidence records: 2 +- Existing evidence records: 4 -### Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries +### Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef -- Pack: [`public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md) +- Pack: [`biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef`](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef/problem.md) - Scoped tasks at front door: 1 - Follow-on tasks behind it: 5 - High-risk follow-on tasks: 3 - Follow-on roles: `data-cleaner`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 -- Existing evidence records: 4 +- Existing evidence records: 3 ## Reviewer Hotspots @@ -304,6 +304,13 @@ These are the packs most likely to stall after the first scoped task because rev - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 - Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 3, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 +### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa + +- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) +- Follow-on tasks: 6 +- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 +- Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 3, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 + ### Occupational Heat Stress And Worker Health In Outdoor Industries Under Climate Change - Pack: [`occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global`](../../problem-packs/occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global/problem.md) @@ -360,13 +367,6 @@ These are the packs most likely to stall after the first scoped task because rev - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 - Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 -### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa - -- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) -- Follow-on tasks: 5 -- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4 -- Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 - ### Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa - Pack: [`food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa/problem.md) @@ -387,11 +387,11 @@ This is the actual pipeline shape. The flat scoped list hides it. | Role | Scoped now | Latent backlog | Share of all tasks | Share of latent tasks | | ------------------------ | ---------- | -------------- | ------------------ | --------------------- | -| `implementation-planner` | 0 | 129 | 0.233 | 0.285 | +| `implementation-planner` | 0 | 129 | 0.233 | 0.284 | | `field-reality-reviewer` | 0 | 108 | 0.195 | 0.238 | | `red-team-reviewer` | 0 | 107 | 0.193 | 0.236 | | `data-cleaner` | 0 | 103 | 0.186 | 0.227 | -| `literature-scout` | 101 | 6 | 0.193 | 0.013 | +| `literature-scout` | 100 | 7 | 0.193 | 0.015 | ## Protocol Alerts diff --git a/docs/wiki/Index.md b/docs/wiki/Index.md index b5065d5..35404db 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Index.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Index.md @@ -7,11 +7,11 @@ | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Total packs | 107 | -| Packs with claims | 12 | +| Packs with claims | 13 | | Packs with accepted claims | 0 | -| Total evidence records | 340 | +| Total evidence records | 345 | | Total tasks | 554 | -| Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 101 | +| Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 100 | | High-risk tasks | 288 | ## All Problem Packs @@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ | [food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | Fertilizer Access And Soil Nutrient Depletion In Smallholder Agriculture In Sub-Saharan Africa | scoped | food-security | sub-saharan-africa | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa/problem.md) | Small-Scale Fisheries Overexploitation Detection And Livelihood Risk In West Africa | scoped | food-security, biodiversity | west-africa | medium | 7 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims | | [food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | Postharvest Food Loss Measurement And Reduction Potential In Sub-Saharan Africa | scoped | food-security | sub-saharan-africa | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | -| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa | scoped | food-security, public-health | east-africa | medium | 2 ev; 6 tasks | needs evidence | +| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa | scoped | food-security, public-health | east-africa | medium | 7 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims | | [food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa/problem.md) | Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa | scoped | food-security, climate-health | east-africa | medium | 3 ev; 6 tasks | ready | | [food-security/urban-food-deserts-global](../../problem-packs/food-security/urban-food-deserts-global/problem.md) | Urban Food Desert Mapping And Fresh-Food Access Gaps In LMIC Cities | scoped | food-security, public-health | global | medium | 1 ev; 5 tasks | needs evidence | | [occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global](../../problem-packs/occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global/problem.md) | Occupational Heat Stress And Worker Health In Outdoor Industries Under Climate Change | scoped | occupational-health, climate-health, public-health | global | high | 10 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims | @@ -150,7 +150,6 @@ These packs have scoped tasks but fewer than 3 evidence records. The source-inve | [energy-access/renewable-energy-grid-integration-global](../../problem-packs/energy-access/renewable-energy-grid-integration-global/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 3 | medium | | [food-security/crop-yield-gap-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/crop-yield-gap-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 2 | medium | | [food-security/drought-early-warning-horn-of-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/drought-early-warning-horn-of-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 4 | high | -| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 6 | 4 | medium | | [food-security/urban-food-deserts-global](../../problem-packs/food-security/urban-food-deserts-global/problem.md) | 1 | 5 | 2 | medium | | [public-health/alcohol-harm-reduction-global](../../problem-packs/public-health/alcohol-harm-reduction-global/problem.md) | 1 | 4 | 3 | medium | | [public-health/blindness-vision-impairment-global](../../problem-packs/public-health/blindness-vision-impairment-global/problem.md) | 1 | 5 | 3 | medium | diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/evidence.json b/problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/evidence.json index 6cff005..24605d9 100644 --- a/problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/evidence.json +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/evidence.json @@ -2,20 +2,19 @@ { "id": "africa-fertilizer-summit-2023", "problem_id": "food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa", - "claim": "The 2023 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit documented average fertilizer use of 15 kg/ha in SSA versus 150 kg/ha globally, with soil nutrient depletion costing an estimated 3 percent of agricultural GDP annually.", + "claim": "The 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit produced the Nairobi Declaration, an African Union declaration focused on fertilizer access, soil health, and continent-wide soil-health action planning.", "evidence_type": "primary-source", "source": { - "title": "Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit Declaration", - "url": "https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/africa-fertilizer-and-soil-health-summit" + "title": "Nairobi Declaration - 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit", + "url": "https://au.int/en/documents/20240509/nairobi-declaration-2024-africa-fertilizer-and-soil-health-summit" }, - "source_date": "2023-05-01", - "access_date": "2026-06-07", - "method": "Reviewed summit declaration, soil-health data, fertilizer-use statistics, and country-level analysis for SSA.", + "source_date": "2024-05-09", + "access_date": "2026-07-10", + "method": "Reviewed the African Union document page for the 2024 Nairobi Declaration and used it only to verify the summit output and policy-planning scope.", "limitations": [ - "The 15 kg/ha figure is a continental average — individual countries range from under 5 to over 50 kg/ha.", - "Fertilizer-use data varies by country and crop — the average combines different survey methodologies and crop systems.", - "The 3 percent GDP cost is a modeled estimate from soil-nutrient balance studies at research sites that may not represent all farming systems.", - "Soil-nutrient data is sparse outside research sites — sub-national nutrient-depletion maps require interpolation that introduces uncertainty." + "This is a policy declaration source, not a fertilizer-use dataset.", + "The source does not support sub-national fertilizer-access estimates or soil-nutrient depletion rates.", + "Quantified fertilizer-use and agricultural-GDP-loss claims require separate statistical or peer-reviewed sources." ], "confidence": "high" }, diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/claims.json b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/claims.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0e03f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/claims.json @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +[ + { + "id": "livestock-data-sufficiency", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "Available public data sources are sufficient to establish that livestock diseases (RVF, PPR, CBPP) cause significant economic losses for East African pastoralists (FAO 2023), that satellite NDVI and rainfall can predict RVF outbreak risk with 2-3 month lead time (Anyamba et al. 2009), and that NDVI-based indices can predict drought-related livestock mortality at index scale (Mude et al. 2009, IBLI Marsabit). CHIRPS provides the standard rainfall input at 0.05 degree resolution (Funk et al. 2014). WOAH WAHIS collects official disease outbreak reports but with incomplete sub-national coverage in pastoralist areas. However, no public dataset provides a linked disease-forage-market compound risk map at sub-national grain for East African pastoralist regions. The available data can support country-level RVF early warning and index-based insurance, but cannot identify which specific pastoralist areas face the highest compound risk from concurrent disease outbreak, forage deficit, and market-price collapse without ground-level disease surveillance data that does not currently exist in a comparable cross-country form.", + "domain": ["food-security", "public-health"], + "status": "unverified", + "evidence": [ + "fao-livestock-east-africa-2023", + "anyamba-rvf-satellite-early-warning-2009", + "woah-wahis-reporting-system-2024", + "ppr-global-eradication-programme-2014", + "cbpp-africa-reference-2019", + "ibli-marsabit-pilot-2009", + "chirps-precipitation-dataset-2015" + ], + "failure_modes": [ + "A reader treats the IBLI NDVI-mortality relationship as evidence that satellite indices predict disease-related mortality, when the Marsabit pilot validated only drought-related mortality. Disease outbreaks require ground surveillance, not vegetation proxies.", + "A reader uses WAHIS outbreak reports as a complete picture of disease distribution in pastoralist East Africa, when reporting depends on veterinary field capacity that is absent in many remote areas. Absence of WAHIS reports does not mean absence of disease.", + "A reader treats the RVF satellite prediction model (Anyamba et al. 2009) as applicable to PPR and CBPP, which have different environmental drivers (direct contact vs vector-borne) and no comparable satellite early warning system.", + "A decision-maker uses country-level livestock GDP estimates to infer district-level disease burden, conflating national averages with pastoralist-area specific risk.", + "A reader treats country-level PPR programme or endemicity summaries as proof of disease absence in pastoralist districts, when coverage gaps and reporting gaps can hide ongoing transmission.", + "A reader uses CHIRPS rainfall anomalies as a direct proxy for forage availability without acknowledging that NDVI provides the vegetation response signal and rainfall-to-forage relationships vary by soil type, grazing pressure, and land cover." + ], + "kill_condition": "A reviewer identifies a public dataset providing sub-national livestock disease surveillance, forage condition, and market price data at district-level grain for at least five East African countries with consistent methodology and less than 6-month reporting lag, or finds that an East African regional body (AU-IBAR, IGAD CEWARN, or equivalent) has begun systematic sub-national compound livestock livelihood risk reporting covering pastoralist districts in at least five countries.", + "review_required": ["domain-reviewer", "red-team-reviewer"], + "safety_level": "medium", + "submitter": "codex-agent", + "created_date": "2026-06-30", + "last_updated": "2026-06-30", + "confidence": "medium", + "limitations": [ + "The claim is about public data availability for sub-national compound livestock disease and livelihood risk analysis, not about actual disease status or pastoralist livelihoods in specific locations.", + "The assessment that no comparable cross-country sub-national compound risk dataset exists is an inference from reviewing available data portals, WAHIS documentation, and published literature, not a systematic survey of all national veterinary databases.", + "Some East African countries may have national livestock disease surveillance systems that are not publicly accessible or not in English; these were not reviewed.", + "The IBLI NDVI-mortality validation is specific to Marsabit, Kenya and may not generalize to other pastoralist systems with different species mixes, rainfall regimes, or market structures.", + "The PPR and CBPP references predate the most recent FAO/WOAH programme updates; current endemicity and vaccination coverage require newer source-inventory follow-up." + ] + } +] diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/datasets.md b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/datasets.md index dd2ccc1..af48154 100644 --- a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/datasets.md +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/datasets.md @@ -1,17 +1,50 @@ # Dataset Inventory -| Source | Grain | Status | Use | -| --------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------------- | ----------------------------- | -| OIE WAHIS disease reports | Country, periodic | Usable with gaps | Reported disease outbreaks | -| MODIS NDVI | 250m, 2000-present | Usable | Forage condition monitoring | -| CHIRPS rainfall | 0.05 deg | Usable | Rainfall anomaly for RVF risk | -| Livestock market price data | Market, weekly | Variable | Price anomaly detection | -| Livestock population census | District | Variable, dated | Herd size denominator | +## Candidate Sources -## Required Properties +| Source | Grain | Status | Use | +| -------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | ---------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------- | +| WOAH WAHIS disease reports | Country, event-level when reported | Usable with gaps | Official disease outbreak notifications and six-monthly reports | +| MODIS NDVI (Terra/Aqua) | 250m, 16-day, 2000-present | Usable | Forage condition monitoring, IBLI index input | +| CHIRPS rainfall (Funk et al. 2014) | 0.05 deg, daily, 1981-present | Usable | Rainfall anomaly detection for RVF risk and drought monitoring | +| IBLI NDVI-mortality model (Mude et al. 2009) | District, seasonal | Usable | NDVI-livestock mortality proxy validated in Marsabit pilot | +| FAO livestock sector briefs | Country, irregular | Usable | Livestock GDP contribution, pastoralist population framing | +| PPR GEP eradication reports (FAO/WOAH) | Country, annual | Limited | Vaccination coverage and PPR endemicity status | +| Livestock market price data | Market, weekly | Variable | Price anomaly detection; no standardized cross-country system | +| Livestock population census | District | Variable, dated | Herd size denominator; census recency varies by country | -Disease case definition, reporting date and location, NDVI methodology, market price source, license. +## Source Classification Rationale + +### Usable + +- **WOAH WAHIS**: The primary global animal disease reporting system. Provides event-level outbreak notifications with coordinates when reported, plus six-monthly country summaries. Limitation: reporting depends on national veterinary surveillance capacity, which is uneven across East African pastoralist regions. Many remote areas lack the field surveillance needed to trigger reports. Six-monthly reports aggregate at country level and do not provide sub-national disease maps. +- **MODIS NDVI**: 250m resolution vegetation index from NASA Terra/Aqua satellites, available 2000-present at 16-day intervals. Standard input for forage condition monitoring and the IBLI insurance index. Limitation: NDVI measures vegetation greenness, not biomass or forage quality; cloud contamination affects some tropical regions. +- **CHIRPS rainfall**: Quasi-global precipitation dataset at 0.05 degree resolution, 1981-present, blending satellite and station data (Funk et al. 2014, USGS Data Series 832). Standard input for drought monitoring in East Africa. Limitation: performance degrades where station networks are sparse, which includes much of pastoralist East Africa. +- **IBLI NDVI-mortality model**: Demonstrated in Marsabit, Kenya that satellite NDVI predicts livestock mortality at index scale (Mude et al. 2009). Provides the methodological bridge between satellite forage conditions and pastoralist livelihood risk. Limitation: validated for drought-related mortality in one Kenyan district; disease-related mortality requires a separate detection approach. +- **FAO livestock sector briefs**: Provide country-level livestock GDP contribution estimates (30-50 percent of agricultural GDP in East Africa) and pastoralist population estimates (20 million). Useful for problem framing and scale. Limitation: modeled estimates with uncertain denominators; not sub-national. + +### Limited + +- **PPR GEP eradication reports**: FAO-WOAH programme materials can provide country-level vaccination coverage and PPR endemicity context when the specific report is cited. Useful for tracking control progress. Limitation: coverage data is usually country-aggregated; pastoralist area-specific vaccination rates are not systematically reported. Do not infer current remote-zone coverage from the 2014 PPR strategy chapter alone. +- **Livestock market price data**: Weekly market prices exist for some East African livestock markets (e.g., Ethiopia, Kenya) but there is no standardized cross-country system. Useful for price anomaly detection where available. Limitation: market coverage is spatially uneven, price reporting is inconsistent, and market closure during outbreaks creates data gaps exactly when information is most needed. +- **Livestock population census**: District-level livestock population data from national censuses. Provides herd size denominators. Limitation: census recency varies by country (some >10 years old), pastoralist mobility makes point-in-time counts unreliable, and species composition (cattle, sheep, goats, camels) is not always disaggregated. + +### Rejected + +- **Community syndromic surveillance**: No systematic, cross-country syndromic surveillance system exists for livestock diseases in East African pastoralist areas. Individual NGO or research projects have piloted mobile-based syndromic reporting, but these are not sustained or comparable across regions. This is the core data gap between satellite-based environmental risk and ground-level disease confirmation. + +## Required Dataset Properties + +For any dataset accepted into canonical livestock disease and livelihood risk analysis: + +- Disease case definition and reporting protocol (confirmed vs suspected, laboratory confirmation rate). +- Outbreak reporting date and location precision (coordinates, district, or country only). +- NDVI product version, composite period, and cloud-contamination handling. +- Rainfall dataset version, spatial resolution, and station density in the target region. +- Market price source, frequency, and species coverage. +- Livestock population denominator source, census year, and species disaggregation. +- License or reuse permission. ## Rejection Rule -Rejected if disease reporting or forage methodology unverifiable. +A dataset is rejected for canonical disease-livelihood risk analysis if disease reporting methodology, forage index construction, or geographic grain cannot be verified. Sources that provide only country-level aggregates without sub-national data may be used as context but not as proof of pastoralist-area risk. Syndromic surveillance data from pilot projects without sustained coverage is insufficient for risk mapping. diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.json b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.json index 2336c22..6beb611 100644 --- a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.json +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.json @@ -24,9 +24,10 @@ "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", "source": { "title": "Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak", - "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0806490106" + "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0806490106", + "doi": "10.1073/pnas.0806490106" }, - "source_date": "2009-02-17", + "source_date": "2009-01-20", "access_date": "2026-06-06", "method": "Reviewed RVF prediction model, NDVI-SST methodology, and validation results.", "limitations": [ @@ -34,5 +35,107 @@ "Does not predict PPR or CBPP, which have different environmental drivers." ], "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "woah-wahis-reporting-system-2024", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) operates WAHIS as the primary global system for official animal disease reporting, collecting outbreak notifications and six-monthly reports from member countries, but reporting completeness, timeliness, and sub-national spatial precision remain variable, particularly in pastoralist regions of East Africa.", + "evidence_type": "primary-source", + "source": { + "title": "The Science System of the World Organisation for Animal Health", + "url": "https://wahis.woah.org/", + "doi": "10.20506/woah.3534" + }, + "source_date": "2024-07-19", + "access_date": "2026-06-30", + "method": "Reviewed WOAH WAHIS documentation including the science system overview article and the public WAHIS interface to assess reporting frequency, spatial grain, and known gaps for East African livestock diseases including RVF, PPR, and CBPP.", + "limitations": [ + "WAHIS outbreak reports are country-reported and their completeness depends on national veterinary surveillance capacity, which is uneven across East African countries.", + "The system provides event-level outbreak coordinates when reported, but many pastoralist areas lack the field surveillance needed to trigger reports in the first place.", + "Six-monthly reports aggregate at country level and do not provide sub-national disease distribution maps.", + "The WOAH science system article describes institutional framework and processes, not a systematic assessment of reporting completeness gaps." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "ppr-global-eradication-programme-2014", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is distributed across large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, with an estimated 1.7 billion sheep and goats at risk, making PPR a relevant disease family for East African livestock surveillance framing.", + "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", + "source": { + "title": "Strategies and Future of Global Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus", + "url": "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-45165-6_13", + "doi": "10.1007/978-3-662-45165-6_13" + }, + "source_date": "2014-12-03", + "access_date": "2026-06-30", + "method": "Reviewed the chapter on PPR eradication strategies in the Springer volume Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus, focusing on global distribution, at-risk population estimates, and vaccination strategy.", + "limitations": [ + "The 1.7 billion at-risk figure is a global estimate and does not specify the East African subset.", + "The chapter was published in 2014 and predates later FAO-WOAH eradication programme updates.", + "This source does not prove current vaccination coverage or current disease absence in East African pastoralist areas." + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + { + "id": "cbpp-africa-reference-2019", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) remains endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with occurrence reported from at least 25 countries and causes economic losses in affected cattle populations, making CBPP a relevant disease family for East African livestock surveillance framing.", + "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", + "source": { + "title": "Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia", + "url": "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-25385-1_20", + "doi": "10.1007/978-3-030-25385-1_20" + }, + "source_date": "2019-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-30", + "method": "Reviewed the CBPP chapter in Transboundary Animal Diseases in Sahelian Africa and Connected Regions, covering disease distribution, economic impact estimates, and surveillance challenges in African endemic regions.", + "limitations": [ + "The chapter covers CBPP across sub-Saharan Africa broadly; East Africa-specific sub-national data is not systematically presented.", + "Published in 2019; subsequent outbreaks and control campaigns may have changed the endemicity map.", + "This source does not by itself verify current WAHIS reporting obligations or reporting completeness." + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + { + "id": "ibli-marsabit-pilot-2009", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) piloted in Marsabit, Kenya demonstrated that satellite-derived NDVI can predict livestock mortality at index scale, establishing that satellite forage indices are a viable proxy for pastoralist livestock loss and providing the methodological foundation for linking vegetation conditions to livelihood risk.", + "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", + "source": { + "title": "Index Based Livestock Insurance for Northern Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands: The Marsabit Pilot", + "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1844758", + "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.1844758" + }, + "source_date": "2009-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-30", + "method": "Reviewed the IBLI Marsabit pilot design paper covering index construction from NDVI, predicted livestock mortality validation, and contract payout structure.", + "limitations": [ + "The pilot covers a single Kenyan district and the NDVI-mortality relationship may not transfer to other East African pastoralist systems with different livestock species mixes or vegetation dynamics.", + "The index measures drought-related mortality, not disease-related mortality; the two causes require separate detection approaches.", + "SSRN working paper status; the methodology was subsequently validated in peer-reviewed journals but this source is the original pilot design." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "chirps-precipitation-dataset-2015", + "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", + "claim": "The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset provides quasi-global daily to monthly rainfall estimates at 0.05 degree resolution from 1981 to present, blending satellite cold-cloud-duration data with station observations, and is the standard precipitation input for drought and vegetation monitoring in East African pastoralist regions.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "The quasi-global precipitation time series for drought monitoring", + "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ds832", + "doi": "10.3133/ds832" + }, + "source_date": "2014-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-30", + "method": "Reviewed the USGS Data Series 832 technical documentation for CHIRPS, covering data sources (cold cloud duration, TRMM, station data), spatial and temporal resolution, validation against gauge networks, and known performance in East Africa.", + "limitations": [ + "CHIRPS performance degrades in regions with sparse station networks, which includes much of pastoralist East Africa.", + "Rainfall estimates are gridded model output, not direct measurement; uncertainty increases in mountainous and arid areas.", + "The dataset documents precipitation, not vegetation response; NDVI provides the direct forage condition signal.", + "The 2014 Data Series describes the v1.8 product; subsequent CHIRPS versions may have different performance characteristics." + ], + "confidence": "high" } ] diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.md b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.md index e8f2737..7e6caed 100644 --- a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.md +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/evidence.md @@ -2,12 +2,32 @@ ### FAO Livestock East Africa 2023 -Livestock 30-50% ag GDP. 20 million pastoralists. Diseases cause >20% annual herd value loss. +Livestock contribute 30-50 percent of agricultural GDP in East African countries. 20 million pastoralists depend on herd health. Diseases including RVF, CBPP, and PPR cause annual losses exceeding 20 percent of herd value in some areas. Source: FAO Livestock Sector Briefs. -### Anyamba et al. 2009 PNAS +### Anyamba et al. 2009 (PNAS) -Satellite NDVI and SST can predict RVF risk with 2-3 month lead time. +Satellite-derived NDVI and sea-surface temperature anomalies can predict Rift Valley fever outbreak risk in East Africa with 2-3 month lead time. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0806490106. Basis for operational RVF early warning. Limitation: predicts RVF only, not PPR or CBPP. + +### WOAH WAHIS Reporting System 2024 + +WOAH operates WAHIS as the primary global animal disease reporting system. Collects outbreak notifications and six-monthly reports from member countries. Reporting completeness, timeliness, and sub-national spatial precision remain variable, particularly in pastoralist regions of East Africa. DOI: 10.20506/woah.3534. + +### PPR Global Eradication Programme 2014 + +Peste des petits ruminants is distributed across large parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, with an estimated 1.7 billion sheep and goats at risk. Use this source for disease-family relevance and global at-risk framing, not for current East African vaccination coverage. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-45165-6_13. + +### CBPP Reference 2019 + +Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia remains endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with occurrence in at least 25 countries and causes economic losses in affected cattle populations. Use this source for disease-family relevance and broad endemicity framing, not for current WAHIS reporting completeness. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-25385-1_20. + +### IBLI Marsabit Pilot 2009 + +Index-Based Livestock Insurance piloted in Marsabit, Kenya demonstrated that satellite-derived NDVI predicts livestock mortality at index scale. Establishes satellite forage indices as viable proxies for pastoralist livestock loss. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1844758. Limitation: validated for drought mortality, not disease mortality. + +### CHIRPS Precipitation Dataset 2014 + +Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations provides quasi-global daily to monthly rainfall at 0.05 degree resolution from 1981 to present. Standard precipitation input for drought and vegetation monitoring in East African pastoralist regions. DOI: 10.3133/ds832. Limitation: performance degrades where station networks are sparse. ## Evidence Quality Rule -Evidence only when source, method, limitations, and confidence explicit. +Evidence only when source, method, limitations, and confidence are explicit. Every evidence record must have a stable URL (DOI or archive snapshot preferred). Sources that provide only country-level aggregates without sub-national grain are context, not proof of pastoralist-area risk. Disease impact estimates that are modeled must state the model and its validation status. diff --git a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json index 6354e6b..7533635 100644 --- a/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json +++ b/problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ "id": "source-inventory", "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", "title": "Inventory livestock disease and forage data", - "status": "scoped", + "status": "needs-review", "owner_role": "literature-scout", "outcome": "Dated source inventory.", "inputs": [ diff --git a/scripts/generate-remaining-packs.mjs b/scripts/generate-remaining-packs.mjs index 3bb9fc7..0837a26 100644 --- a/scripts/generate-remaining-packs.mjs +++ b/scripts/generate-remaining-packs.mjs @@ -335,17 +335,18 @@ const packs = [ { id: "africa-fertilizer-summit-2023", claim: - "The Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit documented average fertilizer use of 15 kg/ha in SSA versus 150 kg/ha globally, with soil nutrient depletion costing an estimated 3 percent of agricultural GDP annually.", + "The 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit produced the Nairobi Declaration, an African Union declaration focused on fertilizer access, soil health, and continent-wide soil-health action planning.", type: "primary-source", - title: "Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit Declaration", - url: "https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/africa-fertilizer-and-soil-health-summit", - date: "2023-05-01", + title: "Nairobi Declaration - 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit", + url: "https://au.int/en/documents/20240509/nairobi-declaration-2024-africa-fertilizer-and-soil-health-summit", + date: "2024-05-09", confidence: "high", method: - "Reviewed summit declaration, soil-health data, and fertilizer-access analysis.", + "Reviewed the African Union document page for the 2024 Nairobi Declaration and used it only to verify the summit output and policy-planning scope.", limitations: [ - "Fertilizer-access data varies by country and crop.", - "Soil-nutrient data is sparse outside research sites." + "This is a policy declaration source, not a fertilizer-use dataset.", + "The source does not support sub-national fertilizer-access estimates or soil-nutrient depletion rates.", + "Quantified fertilizer-use and agricultural-GDP-loss claims require separate statistical or peer-reviewed sources." ] } ] diff --git a/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json b/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json index a26f866..8d1c008 100644 --- a/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json +++ b/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json @@ -130,6 +130,21 @@ "url": "https://ncdportal.org", "reason": "WHO NCD data portal; live in browser but automated source verification aborts from CI-style fetch.", "verified": "2026-07-09" + }, + { + "url": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1844758", + "reason": "SSRN paper page (IBLI Marsabit pilot); live in browser but connection fails from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "url": "https://washdata.org/reports/jmp-2023-wash-households", + "reason": "WHO/UNICEF JMP washdata.org report page; live in browser (200) but Node.js fetch fails from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-30" + }, + { + "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ds832", + "reason": "USGS Data Series 832 (CHIRPS technical documentation); live in browser (200) but Node.js fetch times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-30" } ] } diff --git a/tasks-available.json b/tasks-available.json index 074f67d..4df6596 100644 --- a/tasks-available.json +++ b/tasks-available.json @@ -3,20 +3,20 @@ "generated_by": "scripts/generate-task-index.mjs", "schema_version": 1, "total_packs": 107, - "total_scoped_tasks": 101, + "total_scoped_tasks": 100, "by_role": { - "literature-scout": 101 + "literature-scout": 100 }, "by_risk": { - "medium": 97, + "medium": 96, "low": 4 }, "by_domain": { "air-quality": 6, - "public-health": 64, + "public-health": 63, "climate-health": 13, "biodiversity": 7, - "food-security": 19, + "food-security": 18, "climate-adaptation": 11, "disaster-resilience": 10, "education": 9, @@ -792,23 +792,6 @@ "tasks_file": "problem-packs/food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa/tasks.json", "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md" }, - { - "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa", - "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa", - "pack_status": "scoped", - "domain": ["food-security", "public-health"], - "region": ["east-africa"], - "task_id": "source-inventory", - "title": "Inventory livestock disease and forage data", - "owner_role": "literature-scout", - "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer", - "safety_risk": "medium", - "outcome": "Dated source inventory.", - "expected_artifact": "datasets.md plus evidence.json.", - "done_condition": "Five sources classified.", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json", - "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md" - }, { "pack_id": "food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa", "pack_title": "Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa",