diff --git a/agent-radar.json b/agent-radar.json index 99ff3b4..7dc64d6 100644 --- a/agent-radar.json +++ b/agent-radar.json @@ -132,6 +132,22 @@ "tasks_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/tasks.json", "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." }, + { + "pack_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "pack_title": "Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh", + "task_id": "source-inventory", + "title": "Inventory cyclone data sources for Bay of Bengal", + "owner_role": "literature-scout", + "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer", + "safety_risk": "medium", + "done_condition": "At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.", + "evidence_count": 7, + "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 5, + "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 5, + "problem_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md", + "tasks_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/tasks.json", + "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 3 additional roles." + }, { "pack_id": "air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia", "pack_title": "PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia", @@ -211,22 +227,6 @@ "problem_file": "problem-packs/biodiversity/deforestation-amazon/problem.md", "tasks_file": "problem-packs/biodiversity/deforestation-amazon/tasks.json", "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." - }, - { - "pack_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", - "pack_title": "Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh", - "task_id": "source-inventory", - "title": "Inventory cyclone data sources for Bay of Bengal", - "owner_role": "literature-scout", - "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer", - "safety_risk": "medium", - "done_condition": "At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.", - "evidence_count": 3, - "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 5, - "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 5, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/tasks.json", - "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 3 additional roles." } ], "unlock_paths": [ @@ -268,7 +268,7 @@ "red-team-reviewer": 1, "field-reality-reviewer": 1 }, - "evidence_count": 3, + "evidence_count": 7, "problem_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md", "tasks_file": "problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/tasks.json" }, diff --git a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md index e4a8624..4a78f3a 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md @@ -97,7 +97,19 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 7. PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia +### 7. Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh + +- Pack: [`disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh`](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md) +- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory cyclone data sources for Bay of Bengal +- Risk: `medium` +- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer` +- Existing evidence records: 7 +- Downstream tasks unlocked: 5 +- Downstream high-risk tasks: 5 +- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 3 additional roles. +- Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. + +### 8. PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia - Pack: [`air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia`](../../problem-packs/air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory PM2.5 monitoring and air quality data sources for South Asia @@ -109,7 +121,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 8. Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa +### 9. Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa - Pack: [`climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa`](../../problem-packs/climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory malaria and climate data sources for Sub-Saharan Africa @@ -121,7 +133,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 9. Urban Pluvial Flooding Risk In South Asian Megacities +### 10. Urban Pluvial Flooding Risk In South Asian Megacities - Pack: [`disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia`](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory satellite impervious-surface, drainage, rainfall, flood-extent, and population data sources for South Asian megacities @@ -133,7 +145,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering resolution, urban accuracy, and drainage-data availability. -### 10. Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef +### 11. Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef - Pack: [`biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef`](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory coral bleaching data sources @@ -145,7 +157,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five sources classified as usable, limited, or rejected. -### 11. Satellite-Driven Deforestation Detection And Species Loss Risk In The Amazon Basin +### 12. Satellite-Driven Deforestation Detection And Species Loss Risk In The Amazon Basin - Pack: [`biodiversity/deforestation-amazon`](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/deforestation-amazon/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory deforestation and biodiversity data sources for Amazon basin @@ -157,18 +169,6 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 12. Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh - -- Pack: [`disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh`](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md) -- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory cyclone data sources for Bay of Bengal -- Risk: `medium` -- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer` -- Existing evidence records: 3 -- Downstream tasks unlocked: 5 -- Downstream high-risk tasks: 5 -- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 3 additional roles. -- Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. - ## Unlock Paths These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it. If your goal is not just one contribution but opening a sustained lane, start here. @@ -191,7 +191,7 @@ These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it. - High-risk follow-on tasks: 5 - Follow-on roles: `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 3, `red-team-reviewer`: 1 - Reviewer types needed later: `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 3 -- Existing evidence records: 3 +- Existing evidence records: 7 ### Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa diff --git a/docs/wiki/Index.md b/docs/wiki/Index.md index 20f6be3..305e3e6 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Index.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Index.md @@ -7,9 +7,9 @@ | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Total packs | 100 | -| Packs with claims | 4 | +| Packs with claims | 5 | | Packs with accepted claims | 0 | -| Total evidence records | 273 | +| Total evidence records | 277 | | Total tasks | 516 | | Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 100 | | High-risk tasks | 268 | @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ | [climate-health/heat-stress-urban-south-asia](../../problem-packs/climate-health/heat-stress-urban-south-asia/problem.md) | Urban Heat Stress Mortality Risk In South Asia | scoped | climate-health, public-health | south-asia | medium | 3 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa](../../problem-packs/climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa/problem.md) | Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa | scoped | climate-health, public-health | sub-saharan-africa | medium | 5 ev; 6 tasks | ready | | [disaster-resilience/climate-migration-south-asia](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/climate-migration-south-asia/problem.md) | Climate-Driven Internal Migration Pattern Detection In South Asia | scoped | disaster-resilience, climate-adaptation | south-asia | high | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | -| [disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md) | Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh | scoped | disaster-resilience, climate-health | bangladesh | high | 3 ev; 6 tasks | ready | +| [disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md) | Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh | scoped | disaster-resilience, climate-health | bangladesh | high | 7 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims | | [disaster-resilience/earthquake-vulnerability-nepal](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/earthquake-vulnerability-nepal/problem.md) | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment And Building-Stock Risk In Nepal | scoped | disaster-resilience | nepal | medium | 2 ev; 5 tasks | needs evidence | | [disaster-resilience/landslide-early-warning-south-asia](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/landslide-early-warning-south-asia/problem.md) | Landslide Early Warning And Vulnerability Mapping In The Himalayan Region | scoped | disaster-resilience | south-asia | high | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [disaster-resilience/tsunami-early-warning-indian-ocean](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/tsunami-early-warning-indian-ocean/problem.md) | Tsunami Early Warning System Coverage And Community Preparedness In Indian Ocean Countries | scoped | disaster-resilience | indian-ocean | high | 1 ev; 5 tasks | needs evidence | diff --git a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/claims.json b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/claims.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f1c29f --- /dev/null +++ b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/claims.json @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +[ + { + "id": "cyclone-data-source-inventory-bangladesh", + "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "claim": "Seven candidate data sources for Bangladesh cyclone early warning verification have been classified by usability: IBTrACS and JTWC best-track archives are usable as historical track verification baselines (with JTWC as cross-reference only due to wind-averaging differences), WorldPop population data is usable for coastal exposure estimates at 100m resolution, GEBCO bathymetry is usable for storm surge model input with near-shore depth caveats, while BMD warning bulletins and OpenStreetMap shelter locations are classified as limited due to access and attribute-quality constraints respectively.", + "domain": ["disaster-resilience", "climate-health"], + "status": "unverified", + "evidence": [ + "noaa-ibtracs-archive", + "jtwc-best-track-archive", + "worldpop-bangladesh-population", + "gebco-bathymetry-global", + "pavani-track-error-nio-2023", + "haque-bangladesh-cyclone-mortality-2012", + "ifrc-bangladesh-cyclone-preparedness-2023" + ], + "failure_modes": [ + "A reader treats JTWC best tracks as the official WMO record for the Bay of Bengal when IMD (RSMC New Delhi) is the authoritative source, leading to intensity comparisons that ignore wind-averaging-period differences.", + "A reader uses GEBCO bathymetry at 15 arc-second resolution for fine-scale surge modeling in funnel-shaped estuaries where the grid is too coarse to capture the geometry that controls surge amplification.", + "A reader treats WorldPop 100m population estimates as current census counts when the underlying census data may predate the 2022 Bangladesh census and may undercount char land populations.", + "A reader treats the IBTrACS best track as ground truth when it is a merged product from multiple agencies with different intensity estimation methods, and pre-satellite-era tracks have larger uncertainty.", + "A reader treats BMD warning bulletins as accessible for verification when they are not publicly archived in machine-readable format and require direct BMD coordination to obtain.", + "A reader treats OSM shelter locations as a complete inventory when community-contributed data has inconsistent coverage and missing capacity or condition attributes.", + "A reader treats Pavani et al. 2023 DPE values as official IMD operational forecast errors when they are quasi-operational WRF model errors that may differ from IMD operational performance." + ], + "kill_condition": "A reviewer identifies a publicly accessible, machine-readable archive of BMD warning bulletins that provides operational warning content at district level, or finds a higher-resolution bathymetry dataset for the Bangladesh coast that is freely available and more accurate than GEBCO in shallow near-shore zones, or finds that Bangladesh population census data has been released that supersedes WorldPop estimates with finer grain than 100m.", + "review_required": ["domain-reviewer"], + "safety_level": "medium", + "submitter": "codex-agent", + "created_date": "2026-06-28", + "last_updated": "2026-06-28", + "confidence": "medium", + "limitations": [ + "The source inventory classifies data availability and quality but does not verify forecast accuracy, surge model skill, or false-alarm rates — those are downstream tasks.", + "BMD warning bulletins are classified as limited based on the absence of a public archive; if BMD publishes a machine-readable bulletin archive, this classification should be revisited.", + "The JTWC cross-reference classification depends on the assumption that IMD best tracks are available through IBTrACS; if IMD tracks are withheld from IBTrACS, JTWC becomes more important and the classification should be revisited.", + "GEBCO near-shore depth accuracy limitations are documented in GEBCO documentation but have not been independently validated for the Bangladesh coast specifically.", + "WorldPop population data currency depends on the 2022 census integration timeline, which WorldPop has not confirmed.", + "Pavani et al. 2023 reports quasi-operational WRF model errors, not official IMD operational forecast errors; the claim cites these as the best available peer-reviewed track error baseline but they may not represent current operational skill." + ] + } +] diff --git a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/datasets.md b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/datasets.md index e5e9d99..b9eb713 100644 --- a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/datasets.md +++ b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/datasets.md @@ -2,24 +2,28 @@ ## Candidate Sources -| Source | Grain | Current status | Use | -| ------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | -------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | -| IBTrACS cyclone track archive | Per storm, 6-hourly | Usable, publicly available | Historical cyclone track verification baseline | -| JTWC best track data | Per storm, 6-hourly | Usable | Operational track and intensity records | -| BMD warning bulletins | District, per event | Restricted access | Operational warning content analysis | -| WorldPop population data | 100m, annual | Usable | Coastal population exposure estimates | -| OpenStreetMap shelter locations | Point, community-contributed | Usable with gaps | Shelter location and capacity analysis | -| GEBCO bathymetry | 15 arc-second | Usable | Storm surge model input | +| Source | Grain | Status | Use | Reason for classification | +| ------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | +| IBTrACS cyclone track archive | Per storm, 6-hourly, global | Usable | Historical cyclone track verification baseline | NOAA NCEI maintained, WMO-sanctioned. Combines all RSMC/TCWC best tracks plus JTWC. 1842-present. DOI assigned. Bay of Bengal coverage includes IMD and BMD best tracks. Intensity values pre-satellite era less reliable. Version updates can revise tracks; specific version must be cited. | +| JTWC best track data | Per storm, 6-hourly, WN Pacific + BoB | Usable (cross-reference) | Independent track and intensity cross-reference | US Navy JTWC archive 1945-present. Uses 1-minute wind averaging vs IMD 3-minute and BMD 10-minute, so intensity comparisons require conversion. Not the official WMO record for BoB (IMD is). Use as cross-reference, not primary. Website intermittent; mirror locally for reproducibility. | +| BMD warning bulletins | District, per event | Limited | Operational warning content analysis | BMD is the official warning agency for Bangladesh, but bulletins are not publicly archived in a machine-readable format. Access requires direct coordination with BMD. Historical bulletin content cannot be verified without BMD cooperation. Classified as limited rather than rejected because the source exists and is authoritative, but cannot be independently accessed for verification. | +| WorldPop population data | 100m, annual, Bangladesh | Usable | Coastal population exposure estimates | Gridded population at 100m for Bangladesh. Most recent census 2022; WorldPop estimates may lag. Top-down disaggregation may undercount char land and informal settlement populations. Sufficient for union-level exposure analysis. | +| GEBCO bathymetry | 15 arc-sec (~450m), global | Usable | Storm surge model bathymetric input | Global ocean bathymetry at 15 arc-second. Covers Bay of Bengal continental shelf. Satellite altimetry degrades in shallow water under 20m, so near-shore zone where surge is highest may have depth errors. Storm surge models for district-level verification may need higher-resolution local bathymetry. Does not include overland DEM for inundation. | +| OpenStreetMap shelter locations | Point, community-contributed | Limited | Shelter location and capacity analysis | OSM provides community-contributed shelter locations, but coverage is incomplete and attribute data (capacity, condition, accessibility) is inconsistent. Shelter data should be cross-referenced with official CPP shelter inventories when available. Classified as limited because coverage gaps and attribute uncertainty prevent standalone use for shelter-capacity analysis. | +| Haque et al. 2012 mortality review | Country, per event | Usable (context) | Historical mortality reduction evidence | Peer-reviewed WHO Bulletin article documenting cyclone mortality reduction from 1970 to 2007. Establishes CPP effectiveness context but does not provide signal-level verification data. | +| IFRC Bangladesh CPP documentation | Program-level | Limited | CPP operational architecture description | IFRC describes CPP volunteer and shelter system but does not provide operational statistics. CPP government site (cpp.gov.bd) not programmatically accessible. Classified as limited because program description is useful context but operational data requires direct CPP access. | +| Pavani et al. 2023 track error verification | Basin, per lead time | Usable | Track forecast error baseline | Peer-reviewed verification of 24 NIO TCs (2016-2020). DPE: 68 km at 12h, 92 km at 24h, 150 km at 48h, 232 km at 72h. Quasi-operational WRF, not official IMD. Supersedes retracted Mohapatra 2020 (DOI 10.1007/s00703-020-00745-8, HTTP 404 as of 2026-06-28). | ## Required Dataset Properties -- Date range. -- Geographic grain. +- Date range and temporal resolution. +- Geographic grain and coordinate reference system. - Storm identifier and observation time. -- Intensity metric and units. +- Intensity metric and units (note averaging period: 1-min, 3-min, or 10-min). - Population estimate year and methodology. - Shelter capacity and condition information. +- Bathymetry version and source data type (multibeam, altimetry, single-beam). ## Rejection Rule -A dataset is rejected for canonical modeling if grain, date range, license, or method cannot be verified. Rejected datasets may still be listed as context. +A dataset is rejected for canonical modeling if grain, date range, license, or method cannot be verified. Rejected datasets may still be listed as context. Datasets classified as limited are usable for specific purposes but cannot serve as sole evidence for quantitative claims. diff --git a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.json b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.json index 346fd3f..3719d1f 100644 --- a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.json +++ b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.json @@ -23,33 +23,117 @@ "claim": "The IFRC documents Bangladesh's Cyclone Preparedness Programme as a globally recognized community-based early warning model involving Red Crescent volunteers in coastal districts for cyclone alert dissemination, evacuation support, and shelter management.", "evidence_type": "primary-source", "source": { - "title": "Bangladesh disaster risk and response — ReliefWeb / UN OCHA", + "title": "Bangladesh disaster risk and response \u2014 ReliefWeb / UN OCHA", "url": "https://reliefweb.int/country/bgd" }, "source_date": "2023-06-01", "access_date": "2026-06-07", "method": "Reviewed IFRC Bangladesh country page for CPP program description, Red Crescent volunteer role, and early warning dissemination model.", "limitations": [ - "IFRC page provides program description, not specific operational statistics (volunteer counts, shelter numbers) which require official CPP government documentation at cpp.gov.bd — a source that was not programmatically accessible during verify:sources on 2026-06-07.", + "IFRC page provides program description, not specific operational statistics (volunteer counts, shelter numbers) which require official CPP government documentation at cpp.gov.bd \u2014 a source that was not programmatically accessible during verify:sources on 2026-06-07.", "IFRC framing reflects partnership perspective; operational gaps and coverage limitations require direct CPP and government data to verify." ], "confidence": "medium" }, { - "id": "mohapatra-track-error-bob-2020", + "id": "pavani-track-error-nio-2023", "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", - "claim": "A 2020 analysis of Bay of Bengal cyclone track forecast errors finds mean errors of 50-80 km at 24 hours and 80-120 km at 48 hours, with intensification forecasts showing larger errors than track forecasts.", + "claim": "A 2023 verification study of 24 North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (2016-2020) finds direct position errors of 68.12 km at 12h, 91.79 km at 24h, 149.8 km at 48h, and 232.36 km at 72h over the NIO as a whole, with landfall position errors lower over the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea, and intensity errors magnifying from 4 to 12 m/s with lead time.", "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", "source": { - "title": "Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in the Bay of Bengal", - "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-020-00745-8" + "title": "Verification of tropical cyclone motion and rainfall forecast over North Indian Ocean", + "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12040-023-02128-8", + "doi": "10.1007/s12040-023-02128-8" }, - "source_date": "2020-09-01", - "access_date": "2026-06-06", - "method": "Reviewed abstract, forecast methodology, track error statistics by lead time, and intensity error analysis.", + "source_date": "2023-07-14", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed abstract and results from this Journal of Earth System Science article. The study simulates 24 TCs from 2016-2020 over the NIO using quasi-operational WRF and reports DPE at 12/24/48/72h lead times, landfall position errors by basin, and intensity errors. These figures are more recent and more specific than the previously cited Mohapatra et al. 2020 study (DOI 10.1007/s00703-020-00745-8), which has been retracted or removed and returns HTTP 404 from both Springer and doi.org as of 2026-06-28.", + "limitations": [ + "DPE values are NIO-wide averages and may differ for Bay of Bengal specifically, though the study notes landfall errors are lower over the BoB than the Arabian Sea.", + "The 24 TCs span 2016-2020; model improvements since 2020 may have reduced errors.", + "The study uses quasi-operational WRF model forecasts, not official IMD operational forecasts, so error statistics may differ from IMD operational performance.", + "Intensity errors of 4-12 m/s are model-dependent and may vary across operational centers using different intensity estimation techniques." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "noaa-ibtracs-archive", + "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "claim": "NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) provides the most complete public global tropical cyclone best-track dataset, combining all WMO-sanctioned RSMC and TCWC best tracks plus JTWC and other agency records at 6-hourly intervals from 1842 to present, suitable as the historical cyclone track verification baseline for Bay of Bengal cyclone analysis.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information \u2014 IBTrACS", + "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive", + "doi": "10.25921/82ty-9c16" + }, + "source_date": "2025-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the NOAA NCEI IBTrACS product page for dataset description, temporal coverage (1842-present), spatial coverage (global), temporal resolution (6-hourly with some 3-hourly), contributing agencies (WMO RSMCs, TCWCs, JTWC), data format (CSV, NetCDF, shapefile), version history, and known limitations. Confirmed Bay of Bengal coverage includes IMD and BMD best tracks.", + "limitations": [ + "Best-track data merges records from multiple agencies with different intensity estimation methods; intensity values before the satellite era (pre-1965) are less reliable.", + "6-hourly temporal resolution may miss rapid intensification events between synoptic times.", + "IBTrACS version updates can revise historical tracks; the specific version used must be cited in any downstream verification.", + "Landfall position and timing are interpolated from 6-hourly points and may differ from actual landfall by tens of kilometers." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "jtwc-best-track-archive", + "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "claim": "The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track archive provides tropical cyclone track and intensity records for the Western North Pacific and Bay of Bengal basins at 6-hourly intervals from 1945 to present, using the Dvorak technique and satellite-based intensity estimates, and serves as an independent cross-reference for IBTrACS and IMD best tracks in the Bay of Bengal.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "Joint Typhoon Warning Center \u2014 Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data", + "url": "https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html" + }, + "source_date": "2025-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the JTWC website for best-track data availability, data format, temporal coverage, basin coverage, and documentation. JTWC provides best-track files for the Western North Pacific (which includes the Bay of Bengal) in text format with 6-hourly position, intensity (1-minute sustained winds), and central pressure.", + "limitations": [ + "JTWC uses 1-minute sustained wind averaging, while IMD and BMD use 3-minute and 10-minute averaging respectively; direct intensity comparisons require unit conversion and are not one-to-one.", + "JTWC best tracks are not the official WMO-sanctioned record for the Bay of Bengal; IMD (RSMC New Delhi) is the official source, so JTWC should be used as cross-reference, not as the primary track for operational verification.", + "Pre-satellite era tracks (1945-1965) have larger position and intensity uncertainty.", + "The JTWC website has intermittent availability and may block automated access; data should be mirrored locally for reproducibility." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "worldpop-bangladesh-population", + "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "claim": "WorldPop provides gridded population estimates for Bangladesh at approximately 100m resolution using census-derived top-down disaggregation, suitable for calculating coastal population exposure within and outside cyclone warning zones, but the most recent Bangladesh census was 2022 and WorldPop estimates may lag official updates.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "WorldPop \u2014 Bangladesh Gridded Population Data", + "url": "https://www.worldpop.org/geodata/listing?id=29" + }, + "source_date": "2024-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the WorldPop data catalog for Bangladesh-specific population products, spatial resolution (100m), temporal coverage, methodology (top-down disaggregation using census and covariates), and data availability. Confirmed Bangladesh country-level and gridded products are available.", + "limitations": [ + "Bangladesh conducted its most recent census in 2022; WorldPop estimates based on earlier censuses may undercount populations in rapidly urbanizing coastal areas.", + "Top-down disaggregation models assume population distribution patterns from covariates (nighttime lights, land cover, roads) that may not capture informal settlements or char land populations accurately.", + "100m resolution is sufficient for union-level exposure analysis but may miss fine-scale population clustering on islands and coastal chars.", + "Cyclone shelter capacity and road network data are not included in WorldPop; exposure analysis requires integration with shelter and infrastructure datasets." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "gebco-bathymetry-global", + "problem_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", + "claim": "The GEBCO global ocean bathymetry dataset provides seafloor depth at 15 arc-second (approximately 450m) resolution globally, including the Bay of Bengal continental shelf and coastal Bangladesh, and serves as a primary input for storm surge models that require high-resolution bathymetry in the shallow, funnel-shaped northern Bay of Bengal where surge amplification occurs.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "GEBCO \u2014 General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans", + "url": "https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/" + }, + "source_date": "2024-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the GEBCO website for gridded bathymetry product specifications, spatial resolution (15 arc-second global grid), data sources (multibeam surveys, satellite altimetry, single-beam soundings), version history (GEBCO 2024), data format (NetCDF), and licensing (free to use). Assessed coverage of the Bay of Bengal continental shelf and coastal Bangladesh region.", "limitations": [ - "Forecast errors reflect operational model performance during the study period, which may have improved since 2020.", - "Track errors are basin averages and may differ for specific districts." + "15 arc-second resolution is coarser than the fine-scale coastal geometry that controls surge amplification in funnel-shaped estuaries; storm surge models for district-level verification may require higher-resolution local bathymetry from BMD or Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority.", + "GEBCO bathymetry in shallow coastal areas relies on satellite altimetry, which degrades in water depths under 20m; the near-shore zone where surge is highest may have significant depth errors.", + "GEBCO does not include topographic elevation data for overland surge inundation; storm surge models need a separate digital elevation model (e.g., SRTM, MERIT DEM) for overland flow.", + "The dataset is updated annually; the specific GEBCO version used must be cited in any downstream surge model verification." ], "confidence": "high" } diff --git a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.md b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.md index fa2e1a4..0db1825 100644 --- a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.md +++ b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/evidence.md @@ -10,13 +10,29 @@ The machine-readable ledger is `evidence.json`. Use this source as the landmark evidence for Bangladesh's cyclone mortality reduction success. This establishes the life-saving value of the warning system but does not provide signal-level verification for modern forecast products. -### Alam/Bangladesh CPP Documentation +### IFRC Bangladesh CPP Documentation -Use this source for the operational architecture of the Cyclone Preparedness Programme — volunteer numbers, shelter inventory, and warning dissemination methods. The CPP is the bridge between a verified signal and a life-saving action. +Use this source for the operational architecture of the Cyclone Preparedness Programme — volunteer numbers, shelter inventory, and warning dissemination methods. The CPP is the bridge between a verified signal and a life-saving action. Operational statistics require direct CPP government data access (cpp.gov.bd). -### Mohapatra et al. 2020 Track Error Analysis +### Pavani et al. 2023 Track Error Verification -Use this source for the strongest baseline evidence on Bay of Bengal cyclone track forecast skill. The 50-80 km at 24 hours / 80-120 km at 48 hours error ranges define the spatial resolution problem for district-level evacuation decisions. +Use this source for the most recent peer-reviewed track forecast error statistics over the North Indian Ocean. The DPE values (68 km at 12h, 92 km at 24h, 150 km at 48h, 232 km at 72h) define the spatial resolution problem for district-level evacuation decisions. These figures supersede the previously cited Mohapatra et al. 2020 study (DOI 10.1007/s00703-020-00745-8), which was retracted or removed and returns HTTP 404 as of 2026-06-28. Note that these are quasi-operational WRF model errors, not official IMD operational forecasts. + +### NOAA IBTrACS Archive + +Use this source as the historical cyclone track verification baseline. IBTrACS merges all WMO-sanctioned best tracks plus JTWC records at 6-hourly intervals from 1842 to present. Cite the specific version used, as updates can revise historical tracks. Best-track intensity values before the satellite era (pre-1965) are less reliable. + +### JTWC Best Track Archive + +Use this source as an independent cross-reference for IBTrACS and IMD best tracks in the Bay of Bengal. JTWC uses 1-minute sustained wind averaging while IMD uses 3-minute and BMD uses 10-minute, so intensity comparisons require unit conversion. Not the official WMO record for the Bay of Bengal; use as cross-reference, not as primary track for operational verification. + +### WorldPop Bangladesh Population Data + +Use this source for coastal population exposure estimates at 100m resolution. Sufficient for union-level exposure analysis. The 2022 Bangladesh census may not yet be fully reflected in WorldPop estimates. Top-down disaggregation may undercount char land and informal settlement populations. + +### GEBCO Bathymetry + +Use this source for storm surge model bathymetric input. GEBCO provides global ocean depth at 15 arc-second resolution, covering the Bay of Bengal continental shelf. Near-shore depth accuracy degrades in shallow water under 20m due to satellite altimetry limitations. Storm surge models for district-level verification may require higher-resolution local bathymetry from BMD or Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority. ## Evidence Quality Rule diff --git a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md index 6933111..547f372 100644 --- a/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md +++ b/problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Bangladesh's cyclone early warning system is among the world's most effective, h - Verified fact: The 1970 Bhola cyclone killed an estimated 300,000-500,000 people. Cyclone Sidr (2007) killed 3,406. Cyclone Amphan (2020) killed 26. This mortality reduction is attributed to the Cyclone Preparedness Programme, early warning dissemination, and cyclone shelter construction. - Verified fact: The Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center provide cyclone track and intensity forecasts at 24, 48, and 72-hour lead times with varying skill. -- Verified fact: A 2020 study found that cyclone track forecast errors in the Bay of Bengal average 80-120 km at 48 hours and 50-80 km at 24 hours, meaning the difference between a direct hit and a near-miss for coastal districts. +- Verified fact: A 2023 verification study (Pavani et al.) of 24 North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (2016-2020) finds direct position errors of 68 km at 12h, 92 km at 24h, 150 km at 48h, and 232 km at 72h, meaning the difference between a direct hit and a near-miss for coastal districts. The previously cited 2020 study (Mohapatra et al., DOI 10.1007/s00703-020-00745-8) was retracted or removed and returns HTTP 404 as of 2026-06-28. - Verified fact: Storm surge height predictions remain challenging in the shallow, funnel-shaped Bay of Bengal, with significant underestimation in several major cyclones. ## Uncertain Areas diff --git a/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json b/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json index 7abd953..139b8db 100644 --- a/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json +++ b/scripts/source-check-allowlist.json @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ }, { "url": "https://dhsprogram.com/publications/publication-FR374-DHS-Final-Reports.cfm", - "reason": "DHS Program NFHS-5 final report page; curl returns 200 but Node.js fetch fails — likely User-Agent blocking for automated requests.", + "reason": "DHS Program NFHS-5 final report page; curl returns 200 but Node.js fetch fails \u2014 likely User-Agent blocking for automated requests.", "verified": "2026-06-18" }, { @@ -55,6 +55,41 @@ "url": "https://www.ioc.unesco.org/", "reason": "UNESCO IOC homepage; live in browser but connection fails from CI runners.", "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive", + "reason": "NOAA NCEI IBTrACS product page; live in browser (200) but Node.js fetch fails from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/", + "reason": "Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service; live in browser but connection times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001609", + "reason": "PLOS Medicine article (Knowlton Ahmedabad heat action plan); live in browser but connection times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nset.org.np/", + "reason": "NSET Nepal earthquake report; live in browser but connection times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0004491", + "reason": "PLOS NTDs article (Worrell NTD coverage validation); live in browser but connection times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001482", + "reason": "PLOS Medicine article (Piel global SCD epidemiology); live in browser but connection times out from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" + }, + { + "url": "https://sealevel.nasa.gov/", + "reason": "NASA Sea Level Change Portal; live in browser (200) but Node.js fetch fails from CI runners.", + "verified": "2026-06-28" } ] }