diff --git a/agent-radar.json b/agent-radar.json index 6074674..99ff3b4 100644 --- a/agent-radar.json +++ b/agent-radar.json @@ -116,6 +116,22 @@ "tasks_file": "problem-packs/education/skills-training-youth-employment-global/tasks.json", "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." }, + { + "pack_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "pack_title": "Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States", + "task_id": "source-inventory", + "title": "Inventory SLR projection and coastal exposure data sources for SIDS", + "owner_role": "literature-scout", + "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer", + "safety_risk": "medium", + "done_condition": "At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.", + "evidence_count": 8, + "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 5, + "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 5, + "problem_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md", + "tasks_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/tasks.json", + "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." + }, { "pack_id": "air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia", "pack_title": "PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia", @@ -196,22 +212,6 @@ "tasks_file": "problem-packs/biodiversity/deforestation-amazon/tasks.json", "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." }, - { - "pack_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", - "pack_title": "Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States", - "task_id": "source-inventory", - "title": "Inventory SLR projection and coastal exposure data sources for SIDS", - "owner_role": "literature-scout", - "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer", - "safety_risk": "medium", - "done_condition": "At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.", - "evidence_count": 3, - "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 5, - "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 5, - "problem_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md", - "tasks_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/tasks.json", - "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles." - }, { "pack_id": "disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh", "pack_title": "Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh", @@ -248,7 +248,7 @@ "field-reality-reviewer": 2, "red-team-reviewer": 1 }, - "evidence_count": 3, + "evidence_count": 8, "problem_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md", "tasks_file": "problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/tasks.json" }, diff --git a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md index 646fc58..e4a8624 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md @@ -85,7 +85,19 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering provider-data fragmentation, outcome-tracking rates, and informal-sector measurement gaps. -### 6. PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia +### 6. Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States + +- Pack: [`climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands`](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md) +- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory SLR projection and coastal exposure data sources for SIDS +- Risk: `medium` +- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer` +- Existing evidence records: 8 +- Downstream tasks unlocked: 5 +- Downstream high-risk tasks: 5 +- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. +- Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. + +### 7. PM2.5 Monitoring Gaps And Health Impact In South Asia - Pack: [`air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia`](../../problem-packs/air-quality/pm25-monitoring-south-asia/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory PM2.5 monitoring and air quality data sources for South Asia @@ -97,7 +109,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 7. Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa +### 8. Malaria Early Warning Signals In Sub-Saharan Africa - Pack: [`climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa`](../../problem-packs/climate-health/malaria-early-warning-africa/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory malaria and climate data sources for Sub-Saharan Africa @@ -109,7 +121,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 8. Urban Pluvial Flooding Risk In South Asian Megacities +### 9. Urban Pluvial Flooding Risk In South Asian Megacities - Pack: [`disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia`](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory satellite impervious-surface, drainage, rainfall, flood-extent, and population data sources for South Asian megacities @@ -121,7 +133,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering resolution, urban accuracy, and drainage-data availability. -### 9. Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef +### 10. Coral Bleaching Detection And Reef Recovery Tracking In The Great Barrier Reef - Pack: [`biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef`](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/coral-bleaching-great-barrier-reef/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory coral bleaching data sources @@ -133,7 +145,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five sources classified as usable, limited, or rejected. -### 10. Satellite-Driven Deforestation Detection And Species Loss Risk In The Amazon Basin +### 11. Satellite-Driven Deforestation Detection And Species Loss Risk In The Amazon Basin - Pack: [`biodiversity/deforestation-amazon`](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/deforestation-amazon/problem.md) - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory deforestation and biodiversity data sources for Amazon basin @@ -145,18 +157,6 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. -### 11. Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States - -- Pack: [`climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands`](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md) -- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory SLR projection and coastal exposure data sources for SIDS -- Risk: `medium` -- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer` -- Existing evidence records: 3 -- Downstream tasks unlocked: 5 -- Downstream high-risk tasks: 5 -- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles. -- Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons. - ### 12. Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh - Pack: [`disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh`](../../problem-packs/disaster-resilience/cyclone-early-warning-bangladesh/problem.md) @@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it. - High-risk follow-on tasks: 5 - Follow-on roles: `data-cleaner`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1 -- Existing evidence records: 3 +- Existing evidence records: 8 ### Cyclone Early Warning And Evacuation Signal Verification In Bangladesh diff --git a/docs/wiki/Index.md b/docs/wiki/Index.md index 1744ddc..20f6be3 100644 --- a/docs/wiki/Index.md +++ b/docs/wiki/Index.md @@ -7,9 +7,9 @@ | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Total packs | 100 | -| Packs with claims | 3 | +| Packs with claims | 4 | | Packs with accepted claims | 0 | -| Total evidence records | 268 | +| Total evidence records | 273 | | Total tasks | 516 | | Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 100 | | High-risk tasks | 268 | @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ | [biodiversity/wetland-loss-migratory-birds-global](../../problem-packs/biodiversity/wetland-loss-migratory-birds-global/problem.md) | Wetland Loss Detection And Migratory Bird Population Impact | scoped | biodiversity, climate-health | global | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [climate-adaptation/climate-resilient-seeds-global](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/climate-resilient-seeds-global/problem.md) | Climate-Resilient Seed Access And Adoption Gaps In Smallholder Agriculture | scoped | climate-adaptation, food-security | global | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [climate-adaptation/heat-early-warning-systems-global](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/heat-early-warning-systems-global/problem.md) | Heat Early Warning System Coverage And Effectiveness In Low-Income Countries | scoped | climate-adaptation, public-health | global | high | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | -| [climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md) | Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States | scoped | climate-adaptation, disaster-resilience | small-island-developing-states | high | 3 ev; 6 tasks | ready | +| [climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md) | Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States | scoped | climate-adaptation, disaster-resilience | small-island-developing-states | high | 8 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims | | [climate-adaptation/urban-green-space-cooling-global](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/urban-green-space-cooling-global/problem.md) | Urban Green Space Cooling Effect And Heat Mortality Reduction Potential | scoped | climate-adaptation, climate-health | global | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [climate-health/air-pollution-source-attribution-global](../../problem-packs/climate-health/air-pollution-source-attribution-global/problem.md) | Ambient Air Pollution Source Attribution And Health Impact In LMIC Megacities | scoped | climate-health, air-quality | global | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | | [climate-health/cold-spell-mortality-global](../../problem-packs/climate-health/cold-spell-mortality-global/problem.md) | Cold Spell Mortality Risk And Heating Access Gaps In Low-Income Countries | scoped | climate-health, public-health | global | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready | diff --git a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/claims.json b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/claims.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d7d25ba --- /dev/null +++ b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/claims.json @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +[ + { + "id": "sids-coastal-exposure-data-sufficiency", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "Available public data sources are sufficient for country-level and broad regional SIDS coastal exposure framing (SLR projection ranges, population-at-risk estimation, and extreme sea-level trend documentation), but no public dataset provides the high-vertical-accuracy coastal elevation or dense tide-gauge coverage needed for island-scale inundation mapping at the precision required for adaptation prioritization. Island-scale exposure analysis on current public data carries uncertainty bounds that may span the difference between minimal and severe inundation for atoll nations under 5 m elevation.", + "domain": ["climate-adaptation", "disaster-resilience"], + "status": "unverified", + "evidence": [ + "ipcc-ar6-sea-level-rise-2021", + "world-bank-sids-vulnerability-2022", + "wahl-extreme-sea-levels-nature-2021", + "coastal-dem-kulp-strauss-2019", + "nasa-sea-level-portal-2024", + "worldpop-sids-population", + "gebco-bathymetry-2023", + "psmsl-tide-gauge-data" + ], + "failure_modes": [ + "A reader treats CoastalDEM-derived inundation maps as precise island-scale exposure estimates when the 0.5 m residual vertical error is comparable to the projected SLR signal for atolls under 5 m.", + "A reader treats IPCC regional SLR projections as sufficient for island-scale downscaling without accounting for local subsidence, tectonics, and ocean-circulation effects that can shift local SLR by 30 percent or more from the regional mean.", + "A reader treats sparse SIDS tide-gauge records as representative of island-wide sea-level conditions when fewer than 20 active gauges exist across all SIDS and most records are short-duration.", + "A reader treats GEBCO bathymetry as adequate for storm-surge modeling at reef-flat scale when the 450 m resolution and sparse sonar coverage introduce large uncertainty in shallow coastal waters.", + "A reader treats WorldPop population estimates as current when some SIDS census data is over 10 years old and may not reflect current settlement patterns or migrant populations.", + "A reader uses this data-availability claim to argue against adaptation investment, when the correct reading is that uncertainty bounds must be carried through, not that exposure is too uncertain to act on." + ], + "kill_condition": "A reviewer identifies a public dataset providing sub-meter vertical accuracy coastal elevation for SIDS atolls at resolution finer than 90 m, or finds a peer-reviewed study demonstrating that CoastalDEM vertical error for SIDS atolls is below 0.25 m against co-located lidar, or finds that PSMSL lists more than 50 active tide gauges across SIDS with records exceeding 20 years.", + "review_required": ["domain-reviewer"], + "safety_level": "medium", + "submitter": "codex-agent", + "created_date": "2026-06-28", + "last_updated": "2026-06-28", + "confidence": "medium", + "limitations": [ + "The claim is about public data availability, not about actual SIDS coastal exposure or adaptation needs.", + "The 0.5 m CoastalDEM error figure is a global mean; SIDS-specific error may be higher or lower but has not been independently validated.", + "The fewer-than-20 tide gauge figure for SIDS is an inference from PSMSL database coverage, not a PSMSL-published count, and could be slightly off if stations were recently added or decommissioned.", + "The claim does not address non-public datasets (e.g., national lidar surveys) that may exist but are not publicly available." + ] + } +] diff --git a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/datasets.md b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/datasets.md index 110520a..a414bbd 100644 --- a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/datasets.md +++ b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/datasets.md @@ -2,13 +2,17 @@ ## Candidate Sources -| Source | Grain | Current status | Use | -| ---------------------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------- | --------------------------------------------- | -| IPCC AR6 SLR projections | Regional, decadal | Usable | SLR projection baseline for downscaling | -| NASA SRTM and CoastalDEM elevation | 30m, static | Usable with caveats | Coastal elevation for inundation mapping | -| WorldPop SIDS population data | 100m, annual | Usable | Population at risk estimation | -| GEBCO bathymetry | 15 arc-second | Usable | Nearshore bathymetry for storm-surge modeling | -| GMSL satellite altimetry | Global, monthly | Usable | Observed SLR trend verification | +| Source | Grain | Status | Use | Reason for classification | +| ---------------------------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- | --------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | +| IPCC AR6 SLR projections (WG1 Ch.9) | Regional, decadal | Usable | SLR projection baseline for downscaling | Authoritative global and regional SLR projections with scenario ranges (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) and regional variation up to 30 percent. Requires local downscaling for island-scale use. Ice-sheet deep uncertainty in high-end projections must be carried through. | +| NASA Sea Level Change Portal (altimetry) | Global, 0.25 deg, monthly | Usable | Observed SLR trend verification | Satellite altimetry showing ~100 mm rise since 1993 at 3.4 mm/yr. Open-ocean measurement, not coastal water level. 0.25 deg resolution too coarse for individual island exposure. Useful for verifying regional SLR trends, not for island-scale inundation mapping. | +| CoastalDEM (Kulp & Strauss 2019) | 90 m, static | Usable with caveats | Coastal elevation for inundation mapping | Neural-network-corrected SRTM reducing mean bias from 1.9 m to 0.5 m. Remaining 0.5 m error is large relative to projected SLR for atolls under 5 m elevation. Validated against US/Australian lidar only; no SIDS atoll validation. 90 m resolution too coarse for infrastructure mapping. | +| SRTM (NASA SRTM) | 30 m, static | Limited | Coarse coastal elevation, not for inundation | Original Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM has a global mean coastal bias of +1.9 m, meaning it systematically overestimates elevation. For SIDS atolls with max elevation under 5 m, this bias produces false negatives — areas that are actually below sea level appear above it. Rejected for inundation mapping; usable only as context for why CoastalDEM exists. | +| WorldPop SIDS population data | 100 m, annual | Usable | Population at risk estimation | Gridded population estimates using census-derived top-down disaggregation. Census currency varies; some SIDS estimates are over 10 years old. 100 m resolution sufficient for island-scale population-at-risk but may miss fine-scale shoreline clustering. Informal and migrant populations may be undercounted. | +| GEBCO bathymetry (2023 grid) | 15 arc-sec (~450 m) | Limited | Nearshore bathymetry for storm-surge modeling | Global bathymetry/elevation grid at ~450 m. SIDS waters have sparse ship-track sonar; most bathymetry inferred from satellite gravity with lower accuracy in shallow coastal waters. Too coarse for reef-flat or lagoon-scale wave-runup modeling. Bathymetry errors propagate into storm-surge uncertainty. | +| PSMSL tide gauge database | Point, monthly | Limited | Local sea-level trend estimation (sparse) | Global tide gauge database with 2,000+ stations, but fewer than 20 active gauges across all SIDS combined. Many records are short-duration with data gaps. Measures relative sea level including local vertical land motion. Insufficient for robust local SLR trends at most SIDS. | +| Wahl et al. 2021 extreme sea levels | Regional, event-based | Usable | Storm-surge return-period shift evidence | Peer-reviewed Nature Climate Change study showing 100-year flood events now occurring every few years in some atoll nations. Based on sparse SIDS tide-gauge data with modeled extreme sea levels. Return-period shifts at specific islands require local validation against observed flood events. | +| World Bank SIDS vulnerability data | Country aggregate | Usable | Exposure framing, fiscal constraint context | Documents SIDS maximum elevations, coastal asset concentration, and fiscal constraints. Aggregate data masks variation between atoll and high-island nations. Elevation statistics depend on DEM quality. Useful for framing, not for island-scale exposure mapping. | ## Required Dataset Properties @@ -22,3 +26,7 @@ ## Rejection Rule A dataset is rejected for canonical modeling if grain, vertical accuracy, date range, license, or method cannot be verified. Rejected datasets may still be listed as context. + +## Key Gap: SIDS-Scale DEM and Bathymetry + +The single most consequential data gap for SIDS coastal exposure analysis is the absence of high-resolution, high-vertical-accuracy coastal elevation models for atoll nations. CoastalDEM at 90 m with 0.5 m residual error is the best global product, but its error is comparable to the SLR signal being mapped. Lidar coverage exists for some individual SIDS (e.g., parts of Maldives and Marshall Islands) but is not publicly available as a unified dataset. Any island-scale exposure map built on CoastalDEM must carry vertical-accuracy uncertainty bounds that may span the difference between minimal and catastrophic inundation. diff --git a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.json b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.json index 9fac174..1e941b6 100644 --- a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.json +++ b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.json @@ -52,5 +52,105 @@ "Return-period changes at specific islands require local validation against observed flood events." ], "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "coastal-dem-kulp-strauss-2019", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "CoastalDEM, a neural-network-corrected version of SRTM, reduces coastal elevation bias from a global mean of 1.9 m (SRTM) to 0.5 m and triples the estimated global population below projected annual flood levels by 2050, but vertical error remains substantial for low-lying atoll nations where total elevation is under 5 m.", + "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study", + "source": { + "title": "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding", + "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z", + "doi": "10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z" + }, + "source_date": "2019-10-29", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the Nature Communications article abstract, methods section describing the neural-network correction of SRTM using ICESat and other training data, validation statistics against independent lidar, and the population exposure estimates.", + "limitations": [ + "CoastalDEM's 0.5 m mean error is still large relative to the 0.4-0.8 m SLR projected by 2100, meaning inundation maps derived from it have wide uncertainty bands for atoll nations.", + "Validation was performed against primarily US and Australian lidar; independent validation for SIDS atolls is not available.", + "The 90 m resolution is too coarse for individual-island infrastructure mapping.", + "Population exposure estimates use 2010 LandScan data and may not reflect current SIDS population distributions." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "nasa-sea-level-portal-2024", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides satellite altimetry observations showing global mean sea level has risen approximately 100 mm since 1993 at an accelerating rate of 3.4 mm per year (1993-2023 average), with regional variation showing some Pacific SIDS experiencing rates above the global average due to ocean dynamics and trade-wind changes.", + "evidence_type": "primary-source", + "source": { + "title": "NASA Sea Level Change Portal", + "url": "https://sealevel.nasa.gov/" + }, + "source_date": "2024-06-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the NASA Sea Level Change Portal for satellite altimetry data products, regional sea-level trend maps, data documentation, and observation-based analysis tools.", + "limitations": [ + "Satellite altimetry measures open-ocean sea surface height, not coastal water levels which are affected by tides, storm surge, and wave runup.", + "Regional trend maps for SIDS waters are based on gridded altimetry with approximately 0.25 degree resolution, too coarse for individual island exposure assessment.", + "The acceleration signal is sensitive to the time window selected and the altimeter mission used." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "worldpop-sids-population", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "WorldPop provides gridded population estimates at approximately 100 m resolution for SIDS countries using census-derived top-down disaggregation, suitable for population-at-risk estimation within coastal inundation zones, but population data currency varies by country with some SIDS estimates based on censuses over 10 years old.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "WorldPop — Gridded Population Data", + "url": "https://www.worldpop.org/" + }, + "source_date": "2024-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the WorldPop platform for SIDS country availability, data products, spatial resolution, temporal coverage, and methodology (top-down vs bottom-up disaggregation).", + "limitations": [ + "Population estimates rely on census data that varies in age; some SIDS have not conducted a census in over 10 years.", + "Top-down disaggregation models assume population distribution patterns that may not hold for small atoll communities with clustered settlement patterns.", + "100 m resolution is sufficient for island-scale population-at-risk estimation but may miss fine-scale population clustering near shorelines.", + "Informal settlement and migrant worker populations may be undercounted in source census data for some SIDS." + ], + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "id": "gebco-bathymetry-2023", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "GEBCO provides a global bathymetry and elevation grid at 15 arc-second resolution (approximately 450 m at the equator) that combines satellite-derived gravity, sonar, and topographic sources, suitable for nearshore bathymetry input to storm-surge models but with sparse direct sonar coverage in many SIDS waters.", + "evidence_type": "dataset", + "source": { + "title": "GEBCO — General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans", + "url": "https://www.gebco.net/" + }, + "source_date": "2023-07-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the GEBCO website for the 2023 grid product, spatial resolution, data sources (satellite altimetry gravity, ship-track sonar, topographic merging), and SIDS regional coverage assessment.", + "limitations": [ + "15 arc-second resolution is too coarse for individual reef-flat or lagoon bathymetry needed for island-scale wave-runup modeling.", + "SIDS waters have sparse ship-track sonar coverage; most bathymetry is inferred from satellite gravity, which has lower accuracy in shallow coastal waters.", + "The grid combines bathymetry and topography but the topographic component should not be used for coastal elevation — use dedicated coastal DEMs instead.", + "Bathymetry errors propagate into storm-surge model output, adding uncertainty to coastal flood estimates." + ], + "confidence": "medium" + }, + { + "id": "psmsl-tide-gauge-data", + "problem_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands", + "claim": "The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level maintains the global tide gauge database with records from over 2,000 stations, but SIDS coverage is extremely sparse with fewer than 20 active tide gauges across all SIDS combined, and many records are short-duration or have data gaps that limit local sea-level trend estimation.", + "evidence_type": "primary-source", + "source": { + "title": "Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)", + "url": "https://www.psmsl.org/" + }, + "source_date": "2024-01-01", + "access_date": "2026-06-28", + "method": "Reviewed the PSMSL database for station coverage in SIDS regions, record lengths, data quality flags, and the Revised Local Reference (RLR) data products.", + "limitations": [ + "Fewer than 20 active tide gauges across all SIDS combined, with many records shorter than 20 years — insufficient for robust local sea-level trend estimation.", + "Tide gauge records measure relative sea level which includes local vertical land motion (subsidence or uplift); SIDS atolls may experience subsidence that is not accounted for.", + "Data gaps are common and metadata quality varies substantially across SIDS stations.", + "Tide gauge locations are typically at single ports and do not represent island-wide sea-level conditions." + ], + "confidence": "medium" } ] diff --git a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.md b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.md index 48001b1..73a93a1 100644 --- a/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.md +++ b/problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/evidence.md @@ -18,6 +18,26 @@ Use this source for SIDS exposure framing — maximum elevations, coastal popula Use this source for the strongest evidence that SLR is already increasing coastal flood frequency. The return-period shift is dramatic but based on sparse tide-gauge data in SIDS regions. +### CoastalDEM (Kulp & Strauss 2019) + +Use this source as the best available global coastal elevation model for inundation mapping. The 0.5 m residual vertical error is large relative to projected SLR for atolls under 5 m — any exposure map built on it must carry uncertainty bounds. Validated against US/Australian lidar only; no SIDS-specific validation exists. + +### NASA Sea Level Change Portal + +Use this source for satellite altimetry observations of global and regional SLR trends. Measures open-ocean sea surface height, not coastal water levels. 0.25 degree resolution is too coarse for individual island exposure. Useful for verifying that regional SLR trends are consistent with IPCC projections. + +### WorldPop Population Data + +Use this source for gridded population estimates within coastal inundation zones. Census currency varies by SIDS; some estimates are over 10 years old. 100 m resolution is sufficient for island-scale but may miss fine-scale shoreline clustering. + +### GEBCO Bathymetry + +Use this source for nearshore bathymetry input to storm-surge models. Limited by sparse sonar coverage in SIDS waters and ~450 m resolution. Bathymetry errors propagate into storm-surge model uncertainty. Too coarse for reef-flat scale wave-runup modeling. + +### PSMSL Tide Gauge Database + +Use this source for local sea-level trend estimation where records exist. SIDS coverage is extremely sparse — fewer than 20 active gauges across all SIDS. Most records are too short for robust trend estimation. Measures relative sea level including local vertical land motion. + ## Evidence Quality Rule Evidence is not accepted because it sounds plausible. It is accepted when the source, method, limitations, and confidence are explicit enough for a reviewer to attack.