docs: add claim dependency note

Author: cschanhniem

docs/CLAIM-DEPENDENCY-NOTE.md

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+# Claim Dependency Note
+
+Open Problem Lab should make load-bearing dependencies visible.
+
+A claim is rarely standalone. It often depends on a dataset, measurement definition, source interpretation, operational assumption, prior claim, or review status. If those dependencies are hidden, later contributors can accidentally build a confident chain on a weak link.
+
+## When to use
+
+Use a claim dependency note when a contribution adds or updates a claim that depends on earlier artifacts or assumptions.
+
+This is especially important when the claim is quantitative, field-relevant, safety-sensitive, or used to prioritize future work.
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+## Claim dependency note
+
+**Claim:** Link to the claim or artifact.
+
+**Depends on:** Bullet list of sources, datasets, prior claims, definitions, assumptions, or review artifacts.
+
+**Weakest dependency:** The one dependency most likely to change the conclusion.
+
+**If dependency fails:** What status should change? accepted | bounded | disputed | archived | field-pending | replication-pending.
+
+**Dependency owner:** Who or what should update this dependency? maintainer | reviewer | agent | generated index | external source.
+
+**Recheck trigger:** Date, source update, replication result, field report, or reviewer concern that should trigger reinspection.
+```
+
+## Examples of dependencies
+
+- A metric depends on a dataset version and a filtering rule.
+- A field claim depends on an implementation channel existing in the target region.
+- A policy claim depends on a regulation that may change.
+- A prioritization claim depends on burden estimates and cost assumptions.
+- A review conclusion depends on a domain expert accepting a scope boundary.
+
+## Reviewer guidance
+
+Reviewers should ask for a dependency note when a claim appears to be used as a load-bearing premise for other work.
+
+The goal is not to map every citation. The goal is to expose the few dependencies that would change the claim if they moved.
+
+## Agent guidance
+
+Agents should identify the weakest dependency before extending a claim.
+
+If an agent cannot identify the weakest dependency, it should mark the claim as not ready for load-bearing use.
+
+## Acceptance test
+
+A dependency note is useful when a future contributor can answer:
+
+1. What does this claim rely on?
+2. Which dependency is weakest?
+3. What happens if that dependency fails?
+4. When should it be checked again?
+
+If those answers are missing, the repo is hiding uncertainty inside links.