Strengthen birth registration problem pack

Author: cschanhniem

AGENTS.md

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ Correct, narrow, and falsifiable beats prolific.
 
 ## Key Components
 
-- `problem-packs/`: canonical problem-pack directories with task maps across multiple domains. Read generated indexes for live counts.
+- `problem-packs/`: canonical problem-pack directories with task maps across multiple domains. Read generated indexes for live counts. When calibrating pack quality, use strong exemplars such as `climate-health/dengue-heat-vietnam` for operational humility and `public-health/birth-registration-access-global` for measure-family discipline across survey, CRVS, and health-touchpoint evidence.
 - `schemas/`: JSON schemas for machine-checkable protocol objects.
 - `.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/`: structured issue forms.
 - `.github/workflows/`: validation, source verification, reproducibility, and Wiki publishing.

SKILL.md

@@ -77,9 +77,12 @@ If your task map declares an expected artifact, include the exact command, input
 
 Strong rejections are worth more than mediocre approvals. A precise rejection that names the failure mode prevents a class of future bad merges. If you are reviewing, your output should read like a `review.json` record, not a comment.
 
-### 7. Read the dengue-heat-vietnam pack as the reference
+### 7. Read reference packs before inventing your own standard
 
-`problem-packs/climate-health/dengue-heat-vietnam/` is the calibration sample. New packs should match its level of grain, sourcing, and explicit limits — not exceed scope, not fall short on evidence.
+- `problem-packs/climate-health/dengue-heat-vietnam/` is the calibration sample for operational humility, bounded claims, and analytic-use warnings.
+- `problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/` is the calibration sample for packs where one "indicator" hides multiple incompatible measures and where service-linkage claims need explicit workflow language.
+
+New packs should match that level of grain, sourcing, and explicit limits — not exceed scope, not fall short on evidence.
 
 ### 8. Report the friction you hit
 

agent-radar.json

@@ -3,39 +3,55 @@
     "generated_by": "scripts/generate-agent-radar.mjs",
     "schema_version": 1,
     "total_packs": 100,
-    "total_tasks": 515,
+    "total_tasks": 516,
     "scoped_tasks": 100,
-    "latent_tasks": 415,
+    "latent_tasks": 416,
     "status_counts": {
       "scoped": 100,
-      "needs-triage": 415
+      "needs-triage": 416
     },
     "owner_role_counts": {
       "literature-scout": 100,
       "data-cleaner": 96,
-      "implementation-planner": 118,
+      "implementation-planner": 119,
       "red-team-reviewer": 100,
       "field-reality-reviewer": 101
     },
     "scoped_role_counts": {
       "literature-scout": 100
     },
     "reviewer_needed_counts": {
-      "domain-reviewer": 211,
+      "domain-reviewer": 212,
       "replicator": 102,
       "red-team-reviewer": 100,
       "field-reality-reviewer": 102
     },
     "safety_risk_counts": {
-      "medium": 233,
+      "medium": 236,
       "high": 268,
-      "low": 14
+      "low": 12
     },
     "protocol_alert_count": 0
   },
   "protocol_alerts": [],
   "contributor_lanes": {
     "first_moves": [
+      {
+        "pack_id": "public-health/birth-registration-access-global",
+        "pack_title": "Birth Registration Coverage Gaps And Health-Service Linkage In Low-Income Countries",
+        "task_id": "source-inventory",
+        "title": "Inventory survey, CRVS, and health-touchpoint data sources for birth registration analysis",
+        "owner_role": "literature-scout",
+        "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer",
+        "safety_risk": "low",
+        "done_condition": "At least six candidate sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering measure family, timing, geographic grain, and health-linkage relevance.",
+        "evidence_count": 7,
+        "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 5,
+        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 2,
+        "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/problem.md",
+        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/tasks.json",
+        "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles."
+      },
       {
         "pack_id": "education/digital-divide-school-access-global",
         "pack_title": "Digital Divide Measurement And School Internet Connectivity In Low-Income Countries",
@@ -68,22 +84,6 @@
         "tasks_file": "problem-packs/education/skills-training-youth-employment-global/tasks.json",
         "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles."
       },
-      {
-        "pack_id": "public-health/birth-registration-access-global",
-        "pack_title": "Birth Registration Coverage Gaps And Health-Service Linkage In Low-Income Countries",
-        "task_id": "source-inventory",
-        "title": "Inventory data sources for public-health/birth-registration-access-global",
-        "owner_role": "literature-scout",
-        "reviewer_needed": "domain-reviewer",
-        "safety_risk": "low",
-        "done_condition": "At least four sources classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.",
-        "evidence_count": 1,
-        "downstream_tasks_unlocked": 4,
-        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 2,
-        "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/problem.md",
-        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/tasks.json",
-        "why_pick_now": "Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles."
-      },
       {
         "pack_id": "public-health/ncd-risk-factor-surveillance-global",
         "pack_title": "Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Surveillance Gaps In Low-Income Countries",
@@ -654,9 +654,9 @@
       {
         "owner_role": "implementation-planner",
         "scoped_tasks": 0,
-        "latent_tasks": 118,
-        "share_of_all_tasks": 0.229,
-        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.284
+        "latent_tasks": 119,
+        "share_of_all_tasks": 0.231,
+        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.286
       },
       {
         "owner_role": "field-reality-reviewer",
@@ -670,7 +670,7 @@
         "scoped_tasks": 0,
         "latent_tasks": 100,
         "share_of_all_tasks": 0.194,
-        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.241
+        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.24
       },
       {
         "owner_role": "data-cleaner",

docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md

@@ -14,18 +14,30 @@ Without routing, a new agent sees a flat task list and misses the actual shape o
 ## Current Shape
 
 - **100 problem packs**
-- **515 total tasks**
+- **516 total tasks**
 - **100 scoped now**
-- **415 follow-on tasks still latent**
-- **Owner roles:** `data-cleaner`: 96, `field-reality-reviewer`: 101, `implementation-planner`: 118, `literature-scout`: 100, `red-team-reviewer`: 100
-- **Reviewer demand:** `domain-reviewer`: 211, `field-reality-reviewer`: 102, `red-team-reviewer`: 100, `replicator`: 102
-- **Safety mix:** `high`: 268, `low`: 14, `medium`: 233
+- **416 follow-on tasks still latent**
+- **Owner roles:** `data-cleaner`: 96, `field-reality-reviewer`: 101, `implementation-planner`: 119, `literature-scout`: 100, `red-team-reviewer`: 100
+- **Reviewer demand:** `domain-reviewer`: 212, `field-reality-reviewer`: 102, `red-team-reviewer`: 100, `replicator`: 102
+- **Safety mix:** `high`: 268, `low`: 12, `medium`: 236
 
 ## First Moves
 
 These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-risk scoped work first, then packs where a successful first move unlocks the most downstream tasks.
 
-### 1. Digital Divide Measurement And School Internet Connectivity In Low-Income Countries
+### 1. Birth Registration Coverage Gaps And Health-Service Linkage In Low-Income Countries
+
+- Pack: [`public-health/birth-registration-access-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/problem.md)
+- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory survey, CRVS, and health-touchpoint data sources for birth registration analysis
+- Risk: `low`
+- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer`
+- Existing evidence records: 7
+- Downstream tasks unlocked: 5
+- Downstream high-risk tasks: 2
+- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 5 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles.
+- Done condition: At least six candidate sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering measure family, timing, geographic grain, and health-linkage relevance.
+
+### 2. Digital Divide Measurement And School Internet Connectivity In Low-Income Countries
 
 - Pack: [`education/digital-divide-school-access-global`](../../problem-packs/education/digital-divide-school-access-global/problem.md)
 - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory school connectivity, mobile-network, and digital-learning data sources for low-income countries
@@ -37,7 +49,7 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris
 - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles.
 - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering connectivity-classification methodology, data currency, and cross-validation status.
 
-### 2. Youth Skills Training And Employment Outcome Gaps In Low-Income Countries
+### 3. Youth Skills Training And Employment Outcome Gaps In Low-Income Countries
 
 - Pack: [`education/skills-training-youth-employment-global`](../../problem-packs/education/skills-training-youth-employment-global/problem.md)
 - Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory training-provider, employment-outcome, labor-market, and skills-mismatch data sources for LMICs
@@ -49,18 +61,6 @@ These are the best entry tasks for a fresh contributor. Ranking favors lower-ris
 - Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles.
 - Done condition: At least five candidate data sources are classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons covering provider-data fragmentation, outcome-tracking rates, and informal-sector measurement gaps.
 
-### 3. Birth Registration Coverage Gaps And Health-Service Linkage In Low-Income Countries
-
-- Pack: [`public-health/birth-registration-access-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/problem.md)
-- Task: `source-inventory` — Inventory data sources for public-health/birth-registration-access-global
-- Risk: `low`
-- Reviewer needed: `domain-reviewer`
-- Existing evidence records: 1
-- Downstream tasks unlocked: 4
-- Downstream high-risk tasks: 2
-- Why pick now: Completing this scoped task opens 4 follow-on tasks across 4 additional roles.
-- Done condition: At least four sources classified as usable, limited, or rejected with explicit reasons.
-
 ### 4. Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Surveillance Gaps In Low-Income Countries
 
 - Pack: [`public-health/ncd-risk-factor-surveillance-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/ncd-risk-factor-surveillance-global/problem.md)
@@ -387,9 +387,9 @@ This is the actual pipeline shape. The flat scoped list hides it.
 
 | Role                     | Scoped now | Latent backlog | Share of all tasks | Share of latent tasks |
 | ------------------------ | ---------- | -------------- | ------------------ | --------------------- |
-| `implementation-planner` | 0          | 118            | 0.229              | 0.284                 |
+| `implementation-planner` | 0          | 119            | 0.231              | 0.286                 |
 | `field-reality-reviewer` | 0          | 101            | 0.196              | 0.243                 |
-| `red-team-reviewer`      | 0          | 100            | 0.194              | 0.241                 |
+| `red-team-reviewer`      | 0          | 100            | 0.194              | 0.24                  |
 | `data-cleaner`           | 0          | 96             | 0.186              | 0.231                 |
 | `literature-scout`       | 100        | 0              | 0.194              | 0                     |
 

docs/wiki/Problem-Packs.md

@@ -518,7 +518,7 @@ Build a verified workflow for measuring antimicrobial resistance surveillance ga
 - Region: `global`
 - Source: [problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global](../../problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/problem.md)
 
-Build a verified workflow for measuring birth registration coverage gaps and linking registration data to health-service access.
+Build a verified workflow for separating survey-based birth-registration coverage, administrative completeness, and certificate possession before using any sub-national gap or health-service linkage claim.
 
 ## Avoidable Blindness And Cataract Surgical Coverage Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries
 

problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/AGENTS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+# Birth Registration Pack
+
+## Overview
+
+This pack exists to stop a common analytical error: treating survey-based under-5 birth-registration status, certificate possession, and administrative CRVS completeness as if they were one number.
+
+Health-service linkage is allowed here only when the workflow is named. "Use the health system" is too vague to merge.
+
+## Key Components
+
+- `problem.md` and `problem.json`: pack scope, contrarian framing, and merge gates.
+- `tasks.json`: sequencing from source inventory to measure reconciliation, country selection, and red-team review.
+- `datasets.md` and `evidence.json`: canonical source inventory and evidence records.
+- `outputs.md`, `playbooks.md`, `validation.md`, `analytic-use-note.md`: what can be published, how to attack it, and what must be blocked.
+
+## Diagrams (Mermaid)
+
+### Flowchart
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart TD
+  A["Source inventory"] --> B["Measure-family note"]
+  B --> C["Country selection"]
+  C --> D["Missed-opportunity analysis"]
+  D --> E["Red-team review"]
+  D --> F["Field-reality review"]
+  E --> G["Reviewed output"]
+  F --> G
+```
+
+### Component Diagram
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart LR
+  Problem["problem.*"] --> Tasks["tasks.json"]
+  Tasks --> Evidence["evidence.json / datasets.md"]
+  Tasks --> Rules["validation.md / analytic-use-note.md"]
+  Tasks --> Outputs["outputs.md / playbooks.md"]
+```
+
+### Sequence Diagram
+
+```mermaid
+sequenceDiagram
+  participant Contributor
+  participant Evidence as evidence.json
+  participant Reviewer
+  Contributor->>Evidence: classify measure family and source limits
+  Contributor->>Reviewer: propose country or touchpoint comparison
+  Reviewer-->>Contributor: allow, narrow, or block based on comparability and misuse risk
+```

problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/analytic-use-note.md

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+# Analytic Use Note
+
+This pack is for evidence review, measurement reconciliation, and bounded sub-national analysis.
+
+A birth-registration artifact is not field-ready unless the PR states:
+
+- which measure family is being used
+- which user is supposed to act on it
+- which health-service touchpoint is being discussed, if any
+- what the comparison cannot prove
+- what misuse the reviewers are explicitly blocking

problem-packs/public-health/birth-registration-access-global/datasets.md

@@ -1,15 +1,28 @@
 # Dataset Inventory
 
-| Source                       | Grain        | Status | Use           |
-| ---------------------------- | ------------ | ------ | ------------- |
-| Primary survey data          | Sub-national | Usable | Core analysis |
-| Satellite/environmental data | Variable     | Usable | Risk context  |
-| Population data              | 100m         | Usable | Denominator   |
+## Candidate Sources
+
+| Source                                         | Grain                            | Current status                         | Use                                                            |
+| ---------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| UNICEF birth registration database             | Country, some sub-national notes | Usable for global and country framing  | Official cross-country baseline and downloadable indicator set |
+| DHS birth-registration indicators or microdata | Household, cluster, sub-national | Usable where country access is granted | Survey-based under-5 registration and certificate possession   |
+| MICS birth-registration module and datasets    | Household, cluster, sub-national | Usable where country survey exists     | Survey-based registration, proof, and knowledge-of-process     |
+| World Bank WDI `SP.REG.BRTH.ZS`                | Country                          | Usable with metadata caveat            | Comparable SDG 16.9.1 series and official definition           |
+| National CRVS administrative tabulations       | Country to district, variable    | Limited and country-specific           | Administrative completeness and timeliness checks              |
+| Health facility birth-notification systems     | Facility to district, variable   | Limited and access-constrained         | Registration opportunities at delivery and postnatal contact   |
+| Immunization or child-health registries        | Child, facility, district        | Limited and access-constrained         | Missed-opportunity analysis for registration touchpoints       |
+| Population denominators and admin boundaries   | District, gridded, national      | Usable but version-sensitive           | Rate construction, district comparisons, and mapping context   |
 
 ## Required Properties
 
-Source methodology, data year, geographic grain, license.
+- Measure family: under-5 survey registration, certificate possession, or administrative live-birth completeness.
+- Data year and time reference.
+- Geographic grain and whether sub-national identifiers are preserved.
+- Numerator and denominator definition.
+- License, access conditions, and whether microdata require approval.
+- Known mismatch against other measure families.
+- Health-touchpoint relevance, if the source is being used to support service-linkage claims.
 
 ## Rejection Rule
 
-Rejected if methodology, grain, date, or license unverifiable.
+A source is rejected for canonical comparison if the measure family, date, grain, or access conditions cannot be verified. Sources that are valid only for framing or only for one country should be listed as limited rather than silently generalized. Administrative and service data without clear denominator or catchment definitions may be used as context but not as proof of sub-national registration performance.