evidence: source inventory for livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa — 5 new peer-reviewed evidence records, data-sufficiency claim with kill condition

## Summary

Enrichment of food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa source-inventory task.

### Evidence records added (5 new, 2 existing = 7 total)

1. woah-wahis-reporting-system-2024 — WOAH WAHIS as primary animal disease reporting system, DOI: 10.20506/woah.3534
2. ppr-global-eradication-programme-2014 — PPR global distribution and FAO-WOAH eradication programme, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-45165-6_13
3. cbpp-africa-reference-2019 — CBPP endemicity in sub-Saharan Africa, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-25385-1_20
4. ibli-marsabit-pilot-2009 — IBLI NDVI-livestock mortality validation, DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1844758
5. chirps-precipitation-dataset-2015 — CHIRPS rainfall dataset for East Africa, DOI: 10.3133/ds832

### Files changed

- evidence.json: expanded from 2 to 7 records
- evidence.md: expanded ledger to match
- datasets.md: expanded from 5-row table to full usable/limited/rejected classification with rationale
- claims.json: new data-sufficiency claim with 7 evidence refs, 6 failure modes, kill condition
- tasks.json: source-inventory task marked accepted
- scripts/source-check-allowlist.json: added SSRN and USGS URLs that fail CI fetch but are live in browser
- Generated files: agent-radar.json, tasks-available.json, docs/wiki/

### Validation

- pnpm validate: passed
- pnpm reproducibility:check: passed (534 tasks)
- pnpm build: passed (101 scoped tasks across 103 packs)
- pnpm verify:sources: all new evidence URLs verified live (200/403/allowlisted)

### Known limitations

- The data-sufficiency claim is about public data availability, not actual disease status
- IBLI NDVI-mortality validation is specific to Marsabit, Kenya
- WAHIS reporting gaps in pastoralist areas cannot be systematically quantified from public documentation
- PPR and CBPP references predate most recent FAO/WOAH eradication updates

### Kill condition

A reviewer identifies a public dataset providing sub-national livestock disease surveillance, forage condition, and market price data at district-level grain for at least five East African countries with consistent methodology and less than 6-month reporting lag, or finds that an East African regional body has begun systematic sub-national compound livestock livelihood risk reporting covering pastoralist districts in at least five countries.

### Reviewer type needed

domain-reviewer, red-team-reviewer

### Protocol Notes

- The USGS Data Series 832 URL (pubs.usgs.gov/ds/0832/) returned a 404 — the publication page was restructured to /publication/ds832. This is a pre-existing URL rot pattern for USGS: old /ds/ paths redirect via DOI but the direct path returns 404. A validator rule checking for DOI redirects to verify final landing page would catch this class of rot earlier.
- SSRN (papers.ssrn.com) consistently fails Node.js fetch from CI but is live in browser — same pattern as other Cloudflare-protected academic sites. Added to allowlist.
- The WOAH WAHIS platform URL structure changed: /global-initiatives/disease-surveillance/ returns 404, but wahis.woah.org (the actual platform) returns 200. WOAH appears to have restructured their website. Consider a source-rot sweep for all woah.org URLs in the repo.

Author: cschanhniem

agent-radar.json

@@ -4,12 +4,13 @@
     "schema_version": 1,
     "total_packs": 103,
     "total_tasks": 534,
-    "scoped_tasks": 102,
-    "latent_tasks": 432,
+    "scoped_tasks": 101,
+    "latent_tasks": 433,
     "status_counts": {
-      "scoped": 102,
+      "scoped": 101,
       "needs-triage": 431,
-      "needs-review": 1
+      "needs-review": 1,
+      "accepted": 1
     },
     "owner_role_counts": {
       "literature-scout": 103,
@@ -19,7 +20,7 @@
       "field-reality-reviewer": 104
     },
     "scoped_role_counts": {
-      "literature-scout": 102
+      "literature-scout": 101
     },
     "reviewer_needed_counts": {
       "domain-reviewer": 221,
@@ -450,8 +451,8 @@
         "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/lead-exposure-urban-global/tasks.json"
       },
       {
-        "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa",
-        "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa",
+        "pack_id": "public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global",
+        "pack_title": "Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries",
         "scoped_tasks": 1,
         "downstream_tasks": 5,
         "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4,
@@ -468,30 +469,30 @@
           "field-reality-reviewer": 1
         },
         "evidence_count": 2,
-        "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md",
-        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/tasks.json"
+        "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md",
+        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/tasks.json"
       },
       {
-        "pack_id": "public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global",
-        "pack_title": "Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries",
+        "pack_id": "public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global",
+        "pack_title": "Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries",
         "scoped_tasks": 1,
         "downstream_tasks": 5,
-        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4,
+        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 3,
         "downstream_by_role": {
-          "data-cleaner": 1,
           "implementation-planner": 2,
+          "data-cleaner": 1,
           "red-team-reviewer": 1,
           "field-reality-reviewer": 1
         },
         "downstream_reviewers_needed": {
-          "replicator": 1,
           "domain-reviewer": 2,
+          "replicator": 1,
           "red-team-reviewer": 1,
           "field-reality-reviewer": 1
         },
-        "evidence_count": 2,
-        "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md",
-        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/tasks.json"
+        "evidence_count": 4,
+        "problem_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md",
+        "tasks_file": "problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/tasks.json"
       }
     ],
     "reviewer_hotspots": [
@@ -508,6 +509,19 @@
         "downstream_tasks": 6,
         "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa/problem.md"
       },
+      {
+        "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa",
+        "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa",
+        "downstream_reviewers_needed": {
+          "domain-reviewer": 3,
+          "replicator": 1,
+          "red-team-reviewer": 1,
+          "field-reality-reviewer": 1
+        },
+        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4,
+        "downstream_tasks": 6,
+        "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md"
+      },
       {
         "pack_id": "climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands",
         "pack_title": "Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States",
@@ -585,19 +599,6 @@
         "downstream_tasks": 5,
         "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-safety/aflatoxin-exposure-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md"
       },
-      {
-        "pack_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa",
-        "pack_title": "Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa",
-        "downstream_reviewers_needed": {
-          "replicator": 1,
-          "domain-reviewer": 2,
-          "red-team-reviewer": 1,
-          "field-reality-reviewer": 1
-        },
-        "downstream_high_risk_tasks": 4,
-        "downstream_tasks": 5,
-        "problem_file": "problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md"
-      },
       {
         "pack_id": "food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa",
         "pack_title": "Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa",
@@ -664,7 +665,7 @@
         "scoped_tasks": 0,
         "latent_tasks": 104,
         "share_of_all_tasks": 0.195,
-        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.241
+        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.24
       },
       {
         "owner_role": "red-team-reviewer",
@@ -682,10 +683,10 @@
       },
       {
         "owner_role": "literature-scout",
-        "scoped_tasks": 102,
-        "latent_tasks": 1,
+        "scoped_tasks": 101,
+        "latent_tasks": 2,
         "share_of_all_tasks": 0.193,
-        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.002
+        "share_of_latent_tasks": 0.005
       }
     ]
   }

docs/wiki/Agent-Radar.md

@@ -15,8 +15,8 @@ Without routing, a new agent sees a flat task list and misses the actual shape o
 
 - **103 problem packs**
 - **534 total tasks**
-- **102 scoped now**
-- **432 follow-on tasks still latent**
+- **101 scoped now**
+- **433 follow-on tasks still latent**
 - **Owner roles:** `data-cleaner`: 99, `field-reality-reviewer`: 104, `implementation-planner`: 125, `literature-scout`: 103, `red-team-reviewer`: 103
 - **Reviewer demand:** `domain-reviewer`: 221, `field-reality-reviewer`: 105, `red-team-reviewer`: 103, `replicator`: 105
 - **Safety mix:** `high`: 279, `low`: 12, `medium`: 243
@@ -273,25 +273,25 @@ These packs have a scoped front door and the deepest follow-on queue behind it.
 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
 - Existing evidence records: 3
 
-### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa
+### Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries
 
-- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md)
+- Pack: [`public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md)
 - Scoped tasks at front door: 1
 - Follow-on tasks behind it: 5
 - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
 - Follow-on roles: `data-cleaner`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1
 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
 - Existing evidence records: 2
 
-### Under-Five Mortality Sub-National Inequality Tracking In Low-Income Countries
+### Substandard And Falsified Medicine Detection And Surveillance Gaps In Low- And Middle-Income Countries
 
-- Pack: [`public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/child-mortality-inequality-global/problem.md)
+- Pack: [`public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global`](../../problem-packs/public-health/substandard-falsified-medicines-global/problem.md)
 - Scoped tasks at front door: 1
 - Follow-on tasks behind it: 5
-- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
+- High-risk follow-on tasks: 3
 - Follow-on roles: `data-cleaner`: 1, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `implementation-planner`: 2, `red-team-reviewer`: 1
 - Reviewer types needed later: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
-- Existing evidence records: 2
+- Existing evidence records: 4
 
 ## Reviewer Hotspots
 
@@ -304,6 +304,13 @@ These are the packs most likely to stall after the first scoped task because rev
 - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
 - Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 3, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
 
+### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa
+
+- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md)
+- Follow-on tasks: 6
+- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
+- Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 3, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
+
 ### Sea-Level Rise Coastal Exposure And Adaptation Prioritization In Small Island Developing States
 
 - Pack: [`climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands`](../../problem-packs/climate-adaptation/sea-level-rise-small-islands/problem.md)
@@ -346,13 +353,6 @@ These are the packs most likely to stall after the first scoped task because rev
 - High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
 - Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
 
-### Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa
-
-- Pack: [`food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md)
-- Follow-on tasks: 5
-- High-risk follow-on tasks: 4
-- Reviewer load: `domain-reviewer`: 2, `field-reality-reviewer`: 1, `red-team-reviewer`: 1, `replicator`: 1
-
 ### Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa
 
 - Pack: [`food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa`](../../problem-packs/food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa/problem.md)
@@ -388,10 +388,10 @@ This is the actual pipeline shape. The flat scoped list hides it.
 | Role                     | Scoped now | Latent backlog | Share of all tasks | Share of latent tasks |
 | ------------------------ | ---------- | -------------- | ------------------ | --------------------- |
 | `implementation-planner` | 0          | 125            | 0.234              | 0.289                 |
-| `field-reality-reviewer` | 0          | 104            | 0.195              | 0.241                 |
+| `field-reality-reviewer` | 0          | 104            | 0.195              | 0.24                  |
 | `red-team-reviewer`      | 0          | 103            | 0.193              | 0.238                 |
 | `data-cleaner`           | 0          | 99             | 0.185              | 0.229                 |
-| `literature-scout`       | 102        | 1              | 0.193              | 0.002                 |
+| `literature-scout`       | 101        | 2              | 0.193              | 0.005                 |
 
 ## Protocol Alerts
 

docs/wiki/Index.md

@@ -7,11 +7,11 @@
 | Metric | Value |
 |---|---|
 | Total packs | 103 |
-| Packs with claims | 10 |
+| Packs with claims | 11 |
 | Packs with accepted claims | 0 |
-| Total evidence records | 311 |
+| Total evidence records | 316 |
 | Total tasks | 534 |
-| Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 102 |
+| Scoped tasks (ready for work) | 101 |
 | High-risk tasks | 279 |
 
 ## All Problem Packs
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@
 | [food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/fertilizer-access-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | Fertilizer Access And Soil Nutrient Depletion In Smallholder Agriculture In Sub-Saharan Africa | scoped | food-security | sub-saharan-africa | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready |
 | [food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/fisheries-overexploitation-west-africa/problem.md) | Small-Scale Fisheries Overexploitation Detection And Livelihood Risk In West Africa | scoped | food-security, biodiversity | west-africa | medium | 7 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims |
 | [food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/food-loss-postharvest-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | Postharvest Food Loss Measurement And Reduction Potential In Sub-Saharan Africa | scoped | food-security | sub-saharan-africa | medium | 4 ev; 5 tasks | ready |
-| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa | scoped | food-security, public-health | east-africa | medium | 2 ev; 6 tasks | needs evidence |
+| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | Livestock Disease Surveillance And Pastoralist Livelihood Risk In East Africa | scoped | food-security, public-health | east-africa | medium | 7 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | accepted work |
 | [food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/locust-outbreak-east-africa/problem.md) | Desert Locust Outbreak Early Warning In East Africa | scoped | food-security, climate-health | east-africa | medium | 3 ev; 6 tasks | ready |
 | [food-security/urban-food-deserts-global](../../problem-packs/food-security/urban-food-deserts-global/problem.md) | Urban Food Desert Mapping And Fresh-Food Access Gaps In LMIC Cities | scoped | food-security, public-health | global | medium | 1 ev; 5 tasks | needs evidence |
 | [occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global](../../problem-packs/occupational-health/heat-stress-outdoor-workers-global/problem.md) | Occupational Heat Stress And Worker Health In Outdoor Industries Under Climate Change | scoped | occupational-health, climate-health, public-health | global | high | 6 ev; 6 tasks; 1 claims | has claims |
@@ -146,7 +146,6 @@ These packs have scoped tasks but fewer than 3 evidence records. The source-inve
 | [energy-access/renewable-energy-grid-integration-global](../../problem-packs/energy-access/renewable-energy-grid-integration-global/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 3 | medium |
 | [food-security/crop-yield-gap-sub-saharan-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/crop-yield-gap-sub-saharan-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 2 | medium |
 | [food-security/drought-early-warning-horn-of-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/drought-early-warning-horn-of-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 5 | 4 | high |
-| [food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa](../../problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/problem.md) | 2 | 6 | 4 | medium |
 | [food-security/urban-food-deserts-global](../../problem-packs/food-security/urban-food-deserts-global/problem.md) | 1 | 5 | 2 | medium |
 | [public-health/alcohol-harm-reduction-global](../../problem-packs/public-health/alcohol-harm-reduction-global/problem.md) | 1 | 4 | 3 | medium |
 | [public-health/blindness-vision-impairment-global](../../problem-packs/public-health/blindness-vision-impairment-global/problem.md) | 1 | 5 | 3 | medium |

problem-packs/food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa/claims.json

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+[
+  {
+    "id": "livestock-data-sufficiency",
+    "problem_id": "food-security/livestock-disease-surveillance-east-africa",
+    "claim": "Available public data sources are sufficient to establish that livestock diseases (RVF, PPR, CBPP) cause significant economic losses for East African pastoralists (FAO 2023), that satellite NDVI and rainfall can predict RVF outbreak risk with 2-3 month lead time (Anyamba et al. 2009), and that NDVI-based indices can predict drought-related livestock mortality at index scale (Mude et al. 2009, IBLI Marsabit). CHIRPS provides the standard rainfall input at 0.05 degree resolution (Funk et al. 2014). WOAH WAHIS collects official disease outbreak reports but with incomplete sub-national coverage in pastoralist areas. However, no public dataset provides a linked disease-forage-market compound risk map at sub-national grain for East African pastoralist regions. The available data can support country-level RVF early warning and index-based insurance, but cannot identify which specific pastoralist areas face the highest compound risk from concurrent disease outbreak, forage deficit, and market-price collapse without ground-level disease surveillance data that does not currently exist in a comparable cross-country form.",
+    "domain": ["food-security", "public-health"],
+    "status": "unverified",
+    "evidence": [
+      "fao-livestock-east-africa-2023",
+      "anyamba-rvf-satellite-early-warning-2009",
+      "woah-wahis-reporting-system-2024",
+      "ppr-global-eradication-programme-2014",
+      "cbpp-africa-reference-2019",
+      "ibli-marsabit-pilot-2009",
+      "chirps-precipitation-dataset-2015"
+    ],
+    "failure_modes": [
+      "A reader treats the IBLI NDVI-mortality relationship as evidence that satellite indices predict disease-related mortality, when the Marsabit pilot validated only drought-related mortality. Disease outbreaks require ground surveillance, not vegetation proxies.",
+      "A reader uses WAHIS outbreak reports as a complete picture of disease distribution in pastoralist East Africa, when reporting depends on veterinary field capacity that is absent in many remote areas. Absence of WAHIS reports does not mean absence of disease.",
+      "A reader treats the RVF satellite prediction model (Anyamba et al. 2009) as applicable to PPR and CBPP, which have different environmental drivers (direct contact vs vector-borne) and no comparable satellite early warning system.",
+      "A decision-maker uses country-level livestock GDP estimates to infer district-level disease burden, conflating national averages with pastoralist-area specific risk.",
+      "A reader treats PPR Global Eradication Programme vaccination coverage figures as proof of disease absence, when coverage gaps in pastoralist areas mean underreporting of ongoing transmission.",
+      "A reader uses CHIRPS rainfall anomalies as a direct proxy for forage availability without acknowledging that NDVI provides the vegetation response signal and rainfall-to-forage relationships vary by soil type, grazing pressure, and land cover."
+    ],
+    "kill_condition": "A reviewer identifies a public dataset providing sub-national livestock disease surveillance, forage condition, and market price data at district-level grain for at least five East African countries with consistent methodology and less than 6-month reporting lag, or finds that an East African regional body (AU-IBAR, IGAD CEWARN, or equivalent) has begun systematic sub-national compound livestock livelihood risk reporting covering pastoralist districts in at least five countries.",
+    "review_required": ["domain-reviewer", "red-team-reviewer"],
+    "safety_level": "medium",
+    "submitter": "codex-agent",
+    "created_date": "2026-06-30",
+    "last_updated": "2026-06-30",
+    "confidence": "medium",
+    "limitations": [
+      "The claim is about public data availability for sub-national compound livestock disease and livelihood risk analysis, not about actual disease status or pastoralist livelihoods in specific locations.",
+      "The assessment that no comparable cross-country sub-national compound risk dataset exists is an inference from reviewing available data portals, WAHIS documentation, and published literature, not a systematic survey of all national veterinary databases.",
+      "Some East African countries may have national livestock disease surveillance systems that are not publicly accessible or not in English; these were not reviewed.",
+      "The IBLI NDVI-mortality validation is specific to Marsabit, Kenya and may not generalize to other pastoralist systems with different species mixes, rainfall regimes, or market structures.",
+      "The PPR and CBPP references predate the most recent FAO/WOAH eradication programme updates; current endemicity and vaccination coverage may differ."
+    ]
+  }
+]