You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.Dismiss alert
{{ message }}
Repository navigation
Commit 126adbe
Browse filesBrowse the repository at this point in the historyBrowse files
[{"id":"world-bank-groundswell-2021","problem_id":"disaster-resilience/climate-migration-south-asia","claim":"World Bank Groundswell report projects up to 40 million internal climate migrants in South Asia by 2050 under pessimistic scenarios, primarily from agricultural areas affected by water stress and crop failure.","evidence_type":"primary-source","source":{"title":"Groundswell: Acting on Internal Climate Migration","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2021/09/13/groundswell-acting-on-internal-climate-migration"},"source_date":"2021-09-13","access_date":"2026-06-06","method":"Reviewed Groundswell methodology, regional projections, and driver analysis.","limitations":["Projections are modeled from biophysical and demographic scenarios, not observed migration flows.","Sub-national projections have wide uncertainty ranges."],"confidence":"medium"},{"id":"rigaud-environmental-migration-review-2021","problem_id":"disaster-resilience/climate-migration-south-asia","claim":"A 2021 review found moderate but significant correlations between environmental change (rainfall deficit, temperature increase, flood frequency) and out-migration at district scale in South Asia, with economic drivers explaining the majority of migration variance.","evidence_type":"peer-reviewed-study","source":{"title":"Environmental change and migration in South Asia: a systematic review","url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11111-021-00378-2"},"source_date":"2021-03-15","access_date":"2026-06-06","method":"Reviewed systematic search, correlation estimates, and attribution methodology.","limitations":["Census data is decadal and cannot capture short-term displacement.","Attribution to climate versus economic drivers is inherently uncertain."],"confidence":"medium"}]
"claim": "World Bank Groundswell report projects up to 40 million internal climate migrants in South Asia by 2050 under pessimistic scenarios, primarily from agricultural areas affected by water stress and crop failure.",
6
+
"evidence_type": "primary-source",
7
+
"source": {
8
+
"title": "Groundswell: Acting on Internal Climate Migration",
"claim": "A 2021 review found moderate but significant correlations between environmental change (rainfall deficit, temperature increase, flood frequency) and out-migration at district scale in South Asia, with economic drivers explaining the majority of migration variance.",
24
+
"evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study",
25
+
"source": {
26
+
"title": "Environmental change and migration in South Asia: a systematic review",
{"id":"disaster-resilience/climate-migration-south-asia","title":"Climate-Driven Internal Migration Pattern Detection In South Asia","status":"scoped","domain":["disaster-resilience","climate-adaptation"],"region":["south-asia"],"summary":"Build a verified workflow for detecting climate-driven internal migration patterns in South Asia, linking census migration data, satellite-derived environmental change, and economic indicators at sub-national scale.","why_it_matters":"The World Bank estimates climate change could force 40 million internal migrants in South Asia by 2050. But migration data comes from censuses conducted every 10 years, and attributing migration to climate versus economic drivers is methodologically contested. Satellite data can track the environmental changes people are fleeing, but linking environmental signals to verified migration flows is the missing chain.","success_metrics":[{"metric":"Attribution honesty","target":"Every migration signal distinguishes climate-correlated from climate-caused migration with explicit methodology.","validation_method":"Schema validation and reviewer checks."}],"safety_level":"high","canonical_files":["datasets.md","evidence.json","evidence.md","outputs.md","playbooks.md","problem.json","problem.md","task-map.md","tasks.json","validation.md"],"review_policy":{"required_reviews":2,"replication_required":true,"merge_gate":"Schema validation, domain review, safety review, replication."}}
"summary": "Build a verified workflow for detecting climate-driven internal migration patterns in South Asia, linking census migration data, satellite-derived environmental change, and economic indicators at sub-national scale.",
8
+
"why_it_matters": "The World Bank estimates climate change could force 40 million internal migrants in South Asia by 2050. But migration data comes from censuses conducted every 10 years, and attributing migration to climate versus economic drivers is methodologically contested. Satellite data can track the environmental changes people are fleeing, but linking environmental signals to verified migration flows is the missing chain.",
9
+
"success_metrics": [
10
+
{
11
+
"metric": "Attribution honesty",
12
+
"target": "Every migration signal distinguishes climate-correlated from climate-caused migration with explicit methodology.",
13
+
"validation_method": "Schema validation and reviewer checks."
[{"id":"ipcc-ar6-urban-flooding-2021","problem_id":"disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia","claim":"IPCC AR6 identifies South Asian cities as high-risk for pluvial flooding with impervious-surface expansion outpacing drainage capacity by 2-3x and rainfall intensity increasing with warming.","evidence_type":"primary-source","source":{"title":"IPCC AR6 WG2 Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure","url":"https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-6/"},"source_date":"2022-02-28","access_date":"2026-06-06","method":"Reviewed urban flooding section, impervious-surface trends, and drainage-capacity analysis.","limitations":["City-scale projections are modeled, not observed for all cities.","Drainage-capacity data is inconsistently available."],"confidence":"high"},{"id":"tellman-satellite-flood-mapping-2021","problem_id":"disaster-resilience/urban-flooding-south-asia","claim":"A 2021 Nature study demonstrated that satellite imagery and cloud-penetrating SAR can map flood extent at 10m resolution globally, with validation showing 85 percent accuracy against ground observations.","evidence_type":"peer-reviewed-study","source":{"title":"Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03695-w"},"source_date":"2021-08-04","access_date":"2026-06-06","method":"Reviewed flood-mapping methodology, accuracy assessment, and population-exposure analysis.","limitations":["SAR flood detection is less reliable in urban canyons and under dense vegetation.","10m resolution may miss street-level flooding."],"confidence":"high"}]
"claim": "IPCC AR6 identifies South Asian cities as high-risk for pluvial flooding with impervious-surface expansion outpacing drainage capacity by 2-3x and rainfall intensity increasing with warming.",
"claim": "A 2021 Nature study demonstrated that satellite imagery and cloud-penetrating SAR can map flood extent at 10m resolution globally, with validation showing 85 percent accuracy against ground observations.",
24
+
"evidence_type": "peer-reviewed-study",
25
+
"source": {
26
+
"title": "Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods",
0 commit comments