gerard26.stan

#./gerard15 sample num_warmup=5000 num_samples=5000 data file=data.R init=init15.R output file=output15.csv refresh=1000



data {
  int D;                // Number of supernovae
  int N_mags;
  int N_EWs;
  vector[N_mags] mag_obs[D];
  vector[N_EWs] EW_obs[D];
  matrix[N_mags, N_mags] mag_cov[D];
  matrix[N_EWs, N_EWs] EW_cov[D];
  vector[D] sivel_obs;
  vector[D] sivel_err;

  unit_vector[5] e1;
  unit_vector[5] e2;
  unit_vector[5] e3;

  vector[5] gamma0in;
  matrix[5,5] gamma0in_cov;
  vector[5] gamma1in;
  matrix[5,5] gamma1in_cov;

  vector[5] gamma0_min;
  vector[5] gamma0_max;
  matrix[5,5] gamma0_ev;
  vector[5] gamma1_min;
  vector[5] gamma1_max;
  matrix[5,5] gamma1_ev;
}

transformed data{
  cholesky_factor_cov[5] L_gamma0;
  cholesky_factor_cov[5] L_gamma1;
  #make the prior 2x looser than the previous determination
  L_gamma0 = cholesky_decompose(4*gamma0in_cov);
  L_gamma1 = cholesky_decompose(4*gamma1in_cov);
}

parameters {
  vector[5] c_raw;
  vector[5] alpha_raw;
  vector[5] beta_raw;
  vector<lower=0.0>[N_mags] L_sigma_raw;
  vector[5] eta_raw;

  real<lower=gamma0_min[1], upper=gamma0_max[1]> gamma01;
  real<lower=gamma0_min[2], upper=gamma0_max[2]> gamma02;
  real<lower=gamma0_min[3], upper=gamma0_max[3]> gamma03;
  real<lower=gamma0_min[4], upper=gamma0_max[4]> gamma04;
  real<lower=gamma0_min[5], upper=gamma0_max[5]> gamma05;

  real<lower=gamma1_min[1], upper=gamma1_max[1]> gamma11;
  real<lower=gamma1_min[2], upper=gamma1_max[2]> gamma12;
  real<lower=gamma1_min[3], upper=gamma1_max[3]> gamma13;
  real<lower=gamma1_min[4], upper=gamma1_max[4]> gamma14;
  real<lower=gamma1_min[5], upper=gamma1_max[5]> gamma15;

  # real rho11;
  # real rho12;
  # real rho13;
  # real rho14;
  # real rho15;

  real <lower=0> Delta_scale;
  // cholesky_factor_corr[N_mags] L_Omega;

  vector[2] EW[D];
  vector[D] sivel;
  vector[N_mags] mag_int_raw[D];

  simplex[D] Delta_unit;

  simplex[D] k_unit;
  simplex[D] k1_unit;

  # simplex[D] R_unit;
  vector<lower=-.1,upper=.1>[D] R_unit;
  vector[5] rho1;
}

transformed parameters {
  vector[5] c;
  vector[5] alpha;
  vector[5] beta;
  vector[5] eta;
  vector[N_mags] L_sigma;

  vector[D] Delta;
  vector[D] k;
  vector[D] k1;
  vector[D] R;
  vector[5] gamma;
  vector[5] gamma1;
  # vector[5] rho1;
  vector[N_mags] mag_int[D];


  c = c_raw/1e2;
  alpha = alpha_raw/5e2;
  beta = beta_raw/2e2;
  eta = eta_raw/6e2;
  L_sigma = L_sigma_raw/100.;
  
  Delta = 4.*Delta_scale*(Delta_unit-1./D);
  k=(k_unit-1./D);
  k1=(k1_unit-1./D);
  # R=(R_unit-1./D);
  R = R_unit - mean(R_unit);

  for (d in 1:5){
    gamma[d] = gamma01 * gamma0_ev[d,1]  + gamma02  * gamma0_ev[d,2] + gamma03 * gamma0_ev[d,3] + gamma04  * gamma0_ev[d,4] + gamma05 * gamma0_ev[d,5];
    gamma1[d]= gamma11 * gamma1_ev[d,1]  + gamma12  * gamma1_ev[d,2] + gamma13 * gamma1_ev[d,3] + gamma14  * gamma1_ev[d,4] + gamma15 * gamma1_ev[d,5];
  }
  
  # gamma[1] = gamma01;
  # gamma[2] = gamma02;
  # gamma[3] = gamma03;
  # gamma[4] = gamma04;
  # gamma[5] = gamma05;
  # gamma = gamma*5;

  # gamma1[1] = gamma11;
  # gamma1[2] = gamma12;
  # gamma1[3] = gamma13;
  # gamma1[4] = gamma14;
  # gamma1[5] = gamma15;
  # gamma1 = gamma1*5;

  # {
  #   matrix[5,5] Q;
  #   matrix[5,2] A;
  #   matrix[5,3] A2;
  #   matrix[5,4] A3;
  #   vector[5] ev1;
  #   vector[5] ev2;
  #   vector[5] ev3;
  #   real dp;

  #   for (d in 1:5){
  #     A[d,1] = gamma[d];
  #     A[d,2] = gamma1[d];
  #   }
    
  #   Q=qr_Q(A);
  #   Q=Q';

  #   ev3 = e1;
  #   for (d in 1:2){
  #     dp = dot_product(Q[d],e1);
  #     for(d2 in 1:5){
  #       ev3[d2] = ev3[d2] -  dp *Q[d,d2];
  #     }
  #   }
  #   ev3 = ev3/sqrt(sum(ev3 .* ev3));

  #   for (d in 1:5){
  #     A2[d,1] = gamma[d];
  #     A2[d,2] = gamma1[d];
  #     A2[d,3] = ev3[d];
  #   }

  #   Q=qr_Q(A2);
  #   Q=Q';
  #   ev1=e2;
  #   for (d in 1:3){
  #     dp = dot_product(Q[d],e2);
  #     for(d2 in 1:5){
  #       ev1[d2] = ev1[d2] -  dp *Q[d,d2];
  #     }
  #   }

  #   ev1 = ev1/sqrt(sum(ev1 .* ev1));

  #   for (d in 1:5){
  #     A3[d,1] = gamma[d];
  #     A3[d,2] = gamma1[d];
  #     A3[d,3] = ev3[d];
  #     A3[d,4] = ev1[d];
  #   }
  #   Q=qr_Q(A3);
  #   Q=Q';
  #   for(d2 in 1:5){
  #     ev2[d2] = Q[5,d2];
  #   }
  #   dp = dot_product(ev2, e3);
  #   ev2 = dp/fabs(dp) * ev2;

  #   # print(dot_product(gamma,ev1)," ",dot_product(gamma1,ev1));
  #   # print(dot_product(gamma,ev2)," ",dot_product(gamma1,ev2));
  #   # print(dot_product(gamma,ev3)," ",dot_product(gamma1,ev3));
  #   # print(dot_product(ev1,ev2)," ",dot_product(ev1,ev3)," ",dot_product(ev2,ev3));
  #   rho1 = rho11*ev1 + rho12*ev2 + rho13*ev3;
  # }

  # rho1 = -rho1*2.5;

    # non-centered parameterization
  {
    // matrix[5,5] L_Sigma;
    // L_Sigma = diag_pre_multiply(L_sigma, L_Omega);
    for (d in 1:D) {
      mag_int[d] = Delta[d] + c+ alpha*EW[d,1]  + beta*EW[d,2]  + rho1*R[d]  + eta*sivel[d] + L_sigma .* mag_int_raw[d];
    }
  }
}

model {
  target += cauchy_lpdf(L_sigma | 0.1,0.1);
  // target += lkj_corr_cholesky_lpdf(L_Omega | 4.);

  for (d in 1:D) {
    target += normal_lpdf(mag_int_raw[d]| 0, 1);
    target += multi_normal_lpdf(mag_obs[d] | mag_int[d]+gamma*k[d]+gamma1*k1[d], mag_cov[d]);
    target += multi_normal_lpdf(EW_obs[d] | EW[d], EW_cov[d]);
  }
  target += (normal_lpdf(sivel_obs | sivel,sivel_err));
  # target += uniform_lpdf(rho11 | -10, 0);
  # target += uniform_lpdf(rho1[5] | 0, 100);
  sum(R .* R) ~ cauchy(5e-3,1.);
  # gamma ~ multi_normal_cholesky(gamma0in, L_gamma0);
  # gamma1 ~ multi_normal_cholesky(gamma1in, L_gamma1);
  # for (d in 1:5) {
  #   # print (gamma, " ",gamma1);
  #   # # print ( gamma0_ev[1,d]  ," ", gamma0_ev[2,d]  ," ", gamma0_ev[3,d] ," ", gamma0_ev[4,d] ," ", gamma0_ev[5,d]);
  #   # print (gamma[1]*gamma0_ev[1,d] + gamma[2]*gamma0_ev[2,d] + gamma[3]*gamma0_ev[3,d]+ gamma[4]*gamma0_ev[4,d]+ gamma[5]*gamma0_ev[5,d]);
  #   # print (gamma0_min[d]," ", gamma0_max[d]);
  #   # print (gamma1[1]*gamma1_ev[1,d] + gamma[2]*gamma1_ev[2,d] + gamma[3]*gamma1_ev[3,d]+ gamma[4]*gamma1_ev[4,d]+ gamma[5]*gamma1_ev[5,d]);
  #   # print (gamma1_min[d]," ", gamma1_max[d]);
  #   gamma[1]*gamma0_ev[1,d] + gamma[2]*gamma0_ev[2,d] + gamma[3]*gamma0_ev[3,d]+ gamma[4]*gamma0_ev[4,d]+ gamma[5]*gamma0_ev[5,d]
  #     ~ uniform(gamma0_min[d], gamma0_max[d]);
  #   gamma1[1]*gamma1_ev[1,d] + gamma1[2]*gamma1_ev[2,d] + gamma1[3]*gamma1_ev[3,d]+ gamma1[4]*gamma1_ev[4,d]+ gamma1[5]*gamma1_ev[5,d]
  #     ~ uniform(gamma1_min[d], gamma1_max[d]);
  # }
}